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Israel Estimates More Than 100 Drones Launched By Iran; Israel Media: Cruise Missiles Launched By Iran In Addition To Drones; Israeli Media: Cruise Missiles Launched By Iran In Addition To Drones; Biden Meeting Now With National Security Team In Situation Room; Iran Says It Has Fired First Wave Of Ballistic Missiles At Israel. Aired 5-6p ET
Aired April 13, 2024 - 17:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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ALEX MARQUARDT, CNN HOST: Hello, I'm Alex Marquardt. Welcome to the "CNN Newsroom."
We are following breaking news. Iran has launched an attack against Israel. If you're just joining us, dozens of Iranian drones are now bound for Israel, as well as cruise missiles, according to the Israeli news media. This, of course, leaving the entire Middle East and beyond very much on edge.
Israeli forces are planning to intercept as many of those aircraft and missiles as possible. The United States has said they will help with those interceptions as best they can.
At this hour, however, we do not yet know what the results of these attacks may be. Just moments ago, the White House said that this attack is expected to unfold over the next few hours. It is just past midnight in Israel. We have got reporters and analysts all over the map as we track this news, including MJ Lee at the White House, Jeremy Diamond in Jerusalem, Clarissa Ward in Tel Aviv, and Ben Wedeman in Beirut.
I want to get straight to our Ben Wedeman, who is in Lebanon. Ben, if you could please bring us up to speed with the latest. What is Iran using now to attack Israel?
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, as we heard just an hour ago that Iran had launched drones in the direction of Israel. Now, we heard also that the United States is going to try to intercept anything that flies in the direction of Israel. Israeli military spokesmen are saying it could take hours for those drones to reach Israeli territory.
And as you said, cruise missiles as well, according to Israeli media, have been launched in the direction of Israel. Now, as a result, Israeli airspace has been closed. Jordanian airspace has been closed. Iraqi airspace has been closed. In Israel, of course, we knew even before this news came out about the
Iranian launch of drones and cruise missiles that tomorrow all schools and universities in Israel have been canceled. We understand that in Haifa, bomb shelters have now been opened.
So, essentially, the region is waiting to see when those projectiles reach Israel. Will they actually hit anything? As we know, Israel has the ability, along with the United States, to track them as they fly in the direction of Israel.
And we've seen that whether it's the Arrow anti-missile system, the Iron Drone and other means, whether Israel will be able to actually shoot all of them down before they actually hit the ground. Alex?
MARQUARDT: Clarissa, to you, we're showing live pictures of that Tel Aviv skyline. One of the major questions is, of course, what the targets are intended to be. Now, there is a sense that if Iran does not want to escalate this, that they won't go, for example, for civilian centers. They won't try to target downtown Tel Aviv where you are. Obviously, we don't know what those targets are going to be. But what is the Israeli government saying to its citizens in order to stay safe in a way that we might be able to glean what it is they believe those intended targets to be?
CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, essentially, they're saying this is a moment for caution. This is a moment to listen carefully to what you're being told to do. This is a moment not to panic. This is a moment for unity, as you heard Ben Wedeman saying there.
Schools are closed. Universities are closed. Camps are closed. No gatherings of more than 1,000 people. Everyone here being urged to keep a close eye on the news, on their phones, and pay attention to what they're told to do.
I do think that the prevailing wisdom had been that Iran was telegraphing this for some time, that they had made it very clear they felt it was necessary to respond to Israel's attack on April 1st in Damascus that killed seven Iranian officials, Quds forces, according to the Israelis.
But now the question is, are they able to retaliate in a way that does not escalate? Are they able to find that so-called goldilocks spot? And the fear is, of course, that given the backdrop, given the tensions, given the fact that we are really in a kind of unprecedented moment, that there are so many things that could go wrong, that there are so many potentially unintended consequences that could lead us into a regional conflagration that very few people across the region actually want to see.
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You have had U.S. CENTCOM Commander General Erik Kurilla here for two days. He just left talking about how the U.S. will work with Israel to deter any kind of attack. But certainly, there is a sense that this is the precipice of a moment that could turn into something much larger if cooler heads don't prevail and if the region is not able to collectively kind of come together and avert an all-out catastrophe.
So, certainly, tensions are high. But I would not say that we are yet in a sort of panic stations moment. These drones are flying very slowly. As we have heard over and over again, it will be ours. The real question becomes whether they are then accompanied by attacks from Iranian proxies, missile attacks. What those targets could be, Alex, is pertaining to your initial question. We don't yet know. Everybody waiting and watching very closely to see what will come.
MARQUARDT: This idea of an Iranian retaliation, while also not trying to escalate, is such an extraordinary, difficult needle to thread. And it is one that the United States and its allies, both in the region and in Europe and elsewhere, are trying to make sure that Iran and Israel essentially do thread it carefully in a way to avoid this escalation.
I want to get to Jeremy Diamond, who is in Jerusalem. Jeremy, what have the Israelis been saying about how they may respond to this Iranian attack? Because, as we're seeing now, this is not proxies yet, perhaps coming from other countries. This is an attack from Iranian soil, raising the possibility of an Israeli response against Iranian soil.
JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, Alex, there's no question that in recent days, Israeli officials have been trying to deter this very scenario, a direct attack by Iranian forces launched from Iranian soil directed at Israeli soil. And indeed, in trying to deter it, they have been warning that an Iranian attack on Israeli soil in that context would result in an equal response from Israel, meaning an Israeli attack directed at Iranian soil.
Now, the question that I have now is, if Israel is able to intercept all of these drones or the majority of these drones, does that change the calculus from Israel? But, of course, we don't know that this attack from Iran as of yet is limited solely to these drones. We could also see cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, which take a considerably shorter amount of time to actually reach Israeli soil that could still be launched by Iran.
I do have some new information for you, though, Alex. Earlier, we reported that it was dozens of drones. I'm now told that the latest Israeli estimate is that there are over 100 drones that have been launched by Iran towards Israeli soil. This is being described to me by sources as a very large-scale attack by Iran.
And what we are trying to confirm at this hour is whether or not this involves additional sources of attack by Iran. That could change the game in terms of how much of a response Israel feels compelled to deliver here. But that is something that we will be monitoring very, very closely over the coming hours.
MARQUARDT: Yeah, we certainly will. It certainly underscores the type of response, the significant response that Iran is carrying out now against Israel. We've been showing that shot of the Tel Aviv skyline. We've gotten used to seeing that picture for the past six months and the interceptions of the rockets coming from Gaza. But what is coming towards Israel right now, in terms of those drones and those missiles, is a lot more significant than those Hamas rockets.
I want to get straight to MJ Lee at the White House. MJ, what are you hearing from the White House?
MJ LEE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Alex, as you know, the White House has been on high alert for days and days now, preparing for exactly this scenario that is now currently underway. A senior administration official from here confirming that many drones have been launched from inside Iran into Israel. They expect that number to really be just north of what we had reported coming into this.
And just to underscore, of course, the gravity of this situation, President Biden was set to finish out the weekend in Rehoboth Beach. He has now cut that trip short and has just returned to the White House, walking straight back into the Oval Office, where later today we expect him to, of course, convene his team of national security advisors. And they, of course, in turn have been in close contact with their Israeli counterparts in the region as well, as all of this has unfolded.
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And we saw moments ago the National Security Council saying in a statement that they expect that this attack is likely to unfold over a number of hours. You know, you take into account just the travel time of some of these drones. And, yeah, we certainly expect that this is going to be a late night here at the White House, with the President continuing to get updated as this situation unfolds.
I do think it's just worth noting a couple of things that we have been reporting leading up to this very moment that's important from here, our stance here at the White House. You know, U.S. officials had said that they expected that Iran would be directly involved in launching these attacks into Israel, but they had also said that it is certainly possible that proxies and other affiliated groups could also be involved. So there's that.
We also know that Iran was expected to attack multiple targets in Israel. But there could also be other targets, other assets in the region that are also targeted. So it could be sort of further reaching than what we are currently aware of. And then, of course, the idea that the U.S. is ready and willing to intercept any weapons, if feasible, as this unfolds.
So, you know, we saw the U.S. moving extra forces into the region in preparation for all of this. So this kind of work and preparation has been underway again for days now. And I think it's just hard to overstate how much this state-on-state conflict between Iran and Israel was a scenario that the U.S. had so much hope to avoid, given the possibility of this now ushering in potentially a real new chapter of real volatility and real unpredictability.
Of course, I should note the U.S. has also gone to great lengths to try to prevent a situation where Iran is directly targeting any U.S. personnel and assets in the region as well, including directly communicating with Iran. So a lot of moving pieces here. But, again, just really have to underscore how much this is exactly that sort of almost worst-case scenario that the Biden administration had hoped to avoid.
MARQUARDT: And we do know that the senior Biden administration officials have been reaching out to their counterparts, Jake Sullivan, the National Security Adviser, Lloyd Austin, the Secretary of Defense.
Cedric Leighton, I want to ask you a technical question, because now we have this reporting from the Israeli media that it's not just these drones, and now we're putting the number at more than 100 attack drones, but also cruise missiles. I don't think there's a on the cruise missiles just yet. It's going to take hours for those drones to get to Israel. How soon could those cruise missiles get to Israeli airspace, and how much more complicated does this make it for the Israeli air defenses when you've got this combination of weaponry being used in this attack?
COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON (ret.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yeah, Alex, that's going to be one of the biggest difficulties and challenges that the Israelis are going to face, because those cruise missiles could basically get to Israeli airspace in about a little less than two hours from launch. So they travel at about five to six times the speed of these drones that we believe the Iranians are using, probably from the Shahed family, the same kind of family that is being used in Ukraine right now. Those drones travel at about 110 miles per hour. Cruise missiles of the type that the Iranians have generally go anywhere from 500 to 620 miles per hour.
So that's the kind of difference in speed that we're looking at, and that is definitely going to be a challenge for the Israeli air defense system and, of course, the associated radar systems, as well as the intelligence systems that are tied into that.
MARQUARDT: General Hertling, is there a possibility that if proxy groups, notably Hezbollah in Lebanon, the most capable of all the proxy groups, arguably, and then, of course, you have the Houthis down south in Yemen, is there a possibility that Israel's air defenses, even if supported by the U.S., could get overwhelmed?
LT. GENERAL MARK HERTLING, (ret.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Oh, absolutely. And what Cedric has just said, Alex, I think is a critically important point. You know, when you're tracking 100 drones coming in on a swarm like we're seeing, it's relatively easy to determine where they are and when they're going to get there.
Suddenly now, as Cedric said, you're going to get cruise missiles potentially arriving earlier and overcome some of the air defense systems. So it's going to distract. And from the very beginning, you know, when you launch drones from 400 or 500 miles away, that first launch was a distraction for what might be coming next. And I think we're seeing that right now.
When you add to that the potential for not only Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, but also some PMF forces, some Popular Mobilization Front forces in Syria, on the border with Jordan, inside of Iraq, that could potentially launch as well. [17:15:15]
You are going to overwhelm or at least challenge that integrated air defense system, which -- which Israel has. But that's why the United States has been coordinating so well with them over the last couple of days, and General Kurilla has been in the area to really contribute to this.
You know, there's also some potential for launch sites that will come over the sea in the Mediterranean. I'm suggesting that you're going to see some U.S. naval assets there, as well as some Israeli naval capabilities that will intercept.
The danger here is, as any military guy will tell you, it's the multiple fronts, the multiple directions, the multiple types of rockets and missiles that are coming in, which will confound any kind of electronic system. And it really goes down to the sensor and the shooter on the ground, the individual human being that's running those systems. These things don't automatically respond. It takes well- trained soldiers and sailors and airmen to make sure it happens well.
But yeah, it's going to be overwhelming. That hundred swarm drone attack, along now with however many cruise missiles and potentially rockets and missiles coming out of southern Lebanon, are going to be a challenge for Israel.
MARQUARDT: They certainly are. And that challenge is coming in just a few hours' time, we believe. All right, I want to ask all our correspondents and analysts to stay with me.
I want to bring in Congressman Adam Smith. He is the Democratic ranking member of the Armed Services Committee. Congressman, thank you so much for joining us.
The question of this retaliation by Iran, it was not a question of if, but when. And now we are looking at the possibility of not just what -- or the question of what happens in Israel, but then what happens in terms of an Israeli response. So how worried are you right now that there will be a significant escalation?
REP. ADAM SMITH, (D-WA): I think I'm very worried. And I think anyone paying attention to this should be very worried. You know, I mean, it's gone back and forth on a number of different levels. Obviously, Israel has been long concerned about Iran sending supplies through Syria, to Lebanon to arm Hezbollah. Missiles have been flying back and forth between Hezbollah and Lebanon and Israel for months now. Obviously, there's the fight in Gaza with Hamas as well. And this is escalating. And I think both sides are assuming if they appear as strong as possible, it will force the other side to back down. But there's really no end to that if both sides have that approach. So after this attack by Iran, it's going to be a very dangerous moment to see what comes next.
MARQUARDT: The consensus by experts and officials until now for the past six months was that Iran didn't really want to get involved in this war directly. They were more than happy to see their proxies going after U.S. targets, coalition targets and, of course, Israeli targets. Do you think that that is changing now, that Iran will want a bit more of a direct role in this conflict? Or do you think that this retaliation, at least in Iran's hope, is a one-off?
SMITH: Most likely, it's a one-off. But you don't know. I mean, you can't know for sure. I mean, based on the way Iran responded to the killing of Soleimani, when we killed Soleimani several years ago now, it strikes me as a one-off. As, you know, you do this us, we have to have a proportional response to discourage you from doing this in the future. But that's not 100% certain that that's Iran's approach.
Now, I heard an analyst earlier say, and quite correctly, that if Iran really wanted to go all in on Israel, they would unleash Hezbollah in Lebanon. That's the greatest threat because that's right across the border. Israel would not have the hours that they have now to see these drones and then potentially missiles if they come coming at them. Iran to date hasn't done that.
So I think Iran is planning on this being a one-off. But if missiles get through and hit Israel, what does Israel do? Do they strike back directly at Iran? The risk of escalation is high for all of those reasons, even if at the moment, I agree, I don't think Iran wants that full-scale war, but they may well stumble into it.
MARQUARDT: No doubt Hezbollah is certainly among, if not the biggest concern right now, aside from what is incoming from Iran. Congressman, what do you think the messaging is from the Biden
administration to Israel in terms of a response? Is it to some extent, you knew this was coming, if it's not too bad, you just take it on the chin? Or will the U.S. be OK with Israel, say, carrying out a response against Iran proper?
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SMITH: Well, I think the message to Israel is not, you know, take it on the chin, you'll be OK. It's -- what is in your long-term best interests here? I mean, Israel is sitting in the middle of a very dangerous neighborhood with Iran and Hezbollah and Hamas, among others, threatening them. Do they want to go all in on a conflict? I would say no, and I think the Biden administration will be advising them no, that they are in a vulnerable position and they should look to de-escalate across the board where possible. They still are very strong and able to defend themselves. They don't need to risk an all- out war to prove that point.
And I also think it underscores the need to get to a ceasefire in Gaza, to get humanitarian assistance in to Gaza and to have an endpoint to that conflict. You know, completely admitting Israel's right to defend itself there without question. But things need to calm down or Israel is vulnerable in the region.
MARQUARDT: All right. Congressman Adam Smith, Ranking Member of the Armed Services Committee, thank you so much for your time and thoughts this evening. Really appreciate it.
SMITH: Thanks for the chance.
MARQUARDT: And I want to bring in Axios' Barak Ravid, who has been breaking so much news on this story today and, of course, for the past six months.
Barak, we are now seeing an expansion of what -- of the Iranian assault, essentially, with the cruise missiles being added to the drones. We now know it's more than 100 attack drones. What are you hearing in terms of what U.S. and Israeli officials are expecting more from Iran and from elsewhere in neighboring countries?
BARAK RAVID, CNN POLITICAL & GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Hi, Alex. So what I hear from Israeli officials and from U.S. officials that the drones were launched both from Iran and from Iraq and Syria. And at the moment, some of them were already intercepted, especially by U.S. forces.
What Israeli officials tell me is that it will be something like 2 a.m. local time when the drones will reach Israeli airspace. That's, I think, something like, you know, an hour and a half from now, more or less.
And the Israeli aspiration, I think, and both the U.S. aspirations to intercept as many drones and cruise missiles as possible outside of Israeli airspace. There was an interesting report in Reuters that said that the Jordanian military is also preparing to shoot down any drone, any Iranian drone that enters Jordanian airspace. So I think that's the goal right now, to intercept as many drones as possible before they reach Israeli airspace.
MARQUARDT: And, Barak, what do we know about the back-channeling, the private conversations over the past few days between Iran and the United States around this retaliation?
RAVID: I think we can -- we can say, you know, we can be quite certain right now, and we see the numbers of drones and cruise missiles that were launched from Iran, that all the efforts to limit this attack and to make the Iranians maybe recalculate their decision-making failed. The Iranians, during the last few days, sent messages to the U.S. through several Arab countries that if the U.S. gets involved in the fighting between Iran and Israel, then Iran will see U.S. bases and forces in the region as a legitimate target. And I think it will be interesting to see whether the fact that U.S. forces are involved in intercepting those drones and cruise missiles, whether Iran will see this as a pretext for attacking U.S. forces in the region.
MARQUARDT: Yeah, it's an excellent question. Of course, the U.S. will say that they are helping defend Israel and not going on the offense. But, Barak, more broadly, I mean, we haven't really talked much about the conflict in Gaza tonight. How much do you think that this could potentially reshape what we've seen over the past few months?
RAVID: Well, I think that this war has gone into a new phase, a phase that from day one the Biden administration tried to avoid of this becoming a regional war. This is now a regional war. Even if this will -- this fight between Israel and Iran will die down in, I don't know, a day or two or three days or a week, it's a new phase.
And when you -- when you look at it like that, then the Gaza war all of a sudden becomes a sideshow. And I think that the Israeli plans for, or at least the announcements about an operation in Rafah, this thing is now in the freezer. I don't think anybody will go back to this thing in the foreseeable future. And right now the focus is only on how to contain this, you know, direct fight between Israel and Iran.
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MARQUARDT: And how do you think that this impacts how the Israeli public sees what is going on? It's one thing for Hamas to fire rockets in the Iron Dome to essentially take them all out and give Israelis that feeling of security. But now you've got Iran, which is a whole different ballgame. So how do you think that changes the Israeli public's thinking? And that pressure had already been growing on Prime Minister Netanyahu because the hostages are still being held?
RAVID: You know, Alex, I want to tell you an anecdote. One of the most popular Twitter accounts in -- since the war started is an Israeli Twitter account. Nobody knows who's operating it, but it's called News from a Year Ago.
And today when the Iranians, shortly before they fired their drones and their cruise missiles, this account posted a video of Netanyahu from a year ago, where he pushed back on the warnings from the intelligence services that the judicial overhaul that he's pushing is creating damages to Israeli security and is encouraging Israel's enemies to attack it. And back at the time, exactly a year ago, he said Israel's enemies will never attack us because they know it will be a mistake. And I think that when you put those two together, I think many, many Israelis look at what's going on. The war in Gaza is stuck. There's no hostage deal in sight. Hezbollah is still shelling the northern border, and Israel is being attacked directly from Iran. I don't think anybody thought this is where Israel is going to be a year ago.
MARQUARDT: Yeah, no doubt there's going to be a reckoning for Prime Minister Netanyahu and others once this conflict is over. Barak Ravid, thank you so much. Terrific reporting as always. I'm sure we'll be talking to you again before too long.
I just want to note that a short time ago we had a graphic up earlier that said that President Joe Biden would be addressing the nation. That was an error. We just want to clarify that, and we regret that mistake.
But I do want to go to MJ Lee at the White House. MJ, what more do we know about what the President is doing with his advisors right now? There had been plans for a meeting of his national security advisors?
LEE: Yeah, the President has just returned back to the White House, and he is back in the Oval Office, so going directly to work. We mentioned before that he was supposed to spend the rest of this weekend basically in Rehoboth Beach, but he ended up cutting that trip short so that he could be here at the White House and meet with top members of his national security team, some of whom we have seen coming here to the White House and arriving here, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, others, of course, like the Secretary of State, the CIA Director, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. That entire team will be convening here to brief the President on this situation that is unfolding with Iran directly attacking Israel.
You know, so far, Alex, we have not heard directly from the President himself since confirmation of these strikes being launched, whether it is a paper statement or on camera. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of that one of those things in the coming hours or in the coming days, just simply given the gravity of the situation. And it certainly feels like a moment when the American people would appreciate some sort of explanation from the President on exactly what's going on, and particularly the U.S.'s involvement and how this may or may not affect U.S. personnel, for example.
So a lot of questions that people have probably as they are watching these events unfold. But again, we are waiting to see whether we will at some point hear directly from the President. But for right now, the task at hand for him is getting a full picture of the situation that is unfolding. And he is going to be meeting again with his top national security advisors, Alex.
MARQUARDT: And it could be a very long evening for the President and his national security advisors. MJ Lee, stay with us, as well as the rest of you.
I want to bring in Norman Roule. He is the former U.S. National Intelligence Manager for Iran. Norm, you were in the intelligence community for decades. Few know Iran better than you here in the United States.
I just want to start with a broad question of what do you make of what we're seeing, more than 100 drones coming from Iran, as well as according to the Israeli media, cruise missiles that have been fired by the regime in Tehran?
NORMAN ROULE, FORMER SENIOR U.S. INTELLIGENCE OFFICIAL: Good afternoon. It's -- this attack is folding out -- rolling out in a relatively consistent manner with Iran's doctrine, sworn tactics, be it drones or small boats in the Persian Gulf, followed by Iran's powerful missile force, and then drawing upon proxies potentially to augment that capacity against an adversary. So in this sense, it's a very consistent behavior by the Iranian government.
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MARQUARDT: So what more could we expect from Iran and it's proxies this evening?
ROULE: Well, I think the question is, not only what more, but how long they will play this out? Iran has an embassy in Yemen manned by a senior Revolutionary Guard official. They have intelligence personnel. It's no doubt coordinated with the Houthis. Iran also is certainly coordinated with Lebanese Hezbollah. So I think there's going to -- there's already in place a general
plan, having that has developed over the past week, in which they play a role within the limitations Iran has set.
MARQUARDT: So are you saying you do believe that there will be a role by Hezbollah and by the Houthis in the coming hours?
ROULE: Very likely. They will need to show that they're standing with Iran at this moment, that they are willing to put some skin in the game.
But again, I think for Lebanese Hezbollah, they, and also Iran don't wish to undertake steps that could lead to a conventional war because that war is likely to inflict significant punishment on the various regimes. And perhaps end those regimes
MARQUARDT: What did you take away about what Iran hopes will unfold in terms of whether the conflict escalates are not from their public pronouncements and the private messaging over the past two weeks since that is really strike in Damascus?
ROULE: Well, there seemed to be a little doubt that Iran would undertake some direct action against Israel. And that Irans actions would be thoughtful and based upon its own capabilities and perceptions of adversary weaknesses.
So that again pushes you towards drones, missiles, some cyber perhaps, and proxies.
At the same time, if you're in Tehran, you've got to worry about a potential Israeli retaliation. And Israel's missile, cyber, drone, Special Operations and other capabilities are significant.
And there are for many reports over the years of Israel being able to conduct very significant damaging operations within Iran.
So Iran doesn't wish to undertake an operative campaign that, in essence, leads to a series of embarrassing domestic defeats, particularly in a world where it has such a terrible economy and it such a large portion of its population opposed to the regime itself.
MARQUARDT: Israel, of course, has been mired in a war for the past six months in Gaza. They've been facing rocket fire and other kinds of attacks from Hezbollah in the north, to the point where tens of thousands of Israeli citizens have had to move out of their homes.
We should note the same thing on the other side of the border, in Lebanon.
What do you think the appetite in Israel or by the Israelis is to broaden this out and to perhaps strike back at Iran after what we see tonight?
ROULE: There is no evidence that Israel would seek to broaden this into a conventional conflict in the region.
At the same time, the nature of Iran's attack, what happens during that attack is going to dictate Israel's response.
There's likely going to be some public and perhaps private back- channel messaging by the various parties to indicate perhaps this is as far as we're willing to go, if this is as far as you're willing to go.
But it really comes down to Iran's objectives. And Iran will have to achieve several things. First, Iran has got to punish Israel and show that it defended Iran's national pride as a result, for the Damascus attack/
But, secondly, it's going to want to show that despite Israeli technology and U.S. support, that it's able to break through that and punish Israel directly.
And after that, I think Irans wants to show that it is cemented its growing regional posture and maintain contact with international players for its international stature.
The most important thing here that's happening is that there has been a red line for many years. Neither side would directly attack the other. That red line is being erased.
And what that means is, even if this conflict ends quickly, we have an open potential for such actions to take place at any time in the future. This is an inflection point for the region.
MARQUARDT: Why do you think Israel decided to go after this building, which of course, the Iranians are claiming was a consulate. They killed seven members of the IRGC, one senior commander, who we understand was in charge of Syria and Lebanon.
He was not a household name for most of us, like Soleimani was, who was killed, of course, four years ago.
Why do you think Israel decided to undertake that strike?
ROULE: Well, there were seven senior Revolutionary Guards Quds Force officials meeting in one location. They we're almost certainly meeting to review or plan existing and future operations directed against Israel's civilians and Israel's interest in other locations.
[17:35:12]
This would represent a significantly valuable target for the Israeli government. Because removing those individuals, not only limits the damage of those future operations, but it breaks apart the efficiency of the bureaucracy of Iran in managing its various proxies.
And it also demonstrates to Iranian proxy officials that Israel can find them wherever they are and take significant actions as a result of their aggressive behavior.
MARQUARDT: So to what extent is the Iranian attack, do you believe, going to be somewhat reciprocal in that the targets in Damascus we're military, this was an official diplomatic building. Do you have any expectation, for example, that Iran would try to go
after population centers and civilians in Israel?
ROULE: Well, generally, Iran's attacks go after only civilian population centers, energy facilities. We saw that in Saudi Arabia through its proxies.
Indeed, Hamas' thousands of rockets fired against Israel have almost exclusively gone against civilian targets.
But in this case, the situation is a little different. Iran wants to show that it is sort of an equal of the Israeli government, as a national government-to-national government striking significant national security entities.
I think most of their targets, if not all of them, will be military and government entities. At the same time, they could miss and hit civilian targets.
MARQUARDT: The Pentagon hasn't been terribly clear about what assets it is using to help Israel in this situation. We know that more assets have been moved into the region.
But how do you think specifically the U.S. is helping Israel knock these drones and these missiles out of the sky tonight?
ROULE: There have been public reports that the United States has shared geospatial information, which would provide information on the number and frequency of launches within Iran against Israel.
Likewise, there are reports that the United States has military aircraft that are looking for and shooting down drones and perhaps missiles over Iraq and perhaps Syria.
And I think last, the United States would be using its vast and significant military capabilities in the northern Red Sea and eastern Mediterranean to support Israels air defense operative operations over Israel itself.
MARQUARDT: All right. Norm Roule, I'm going to ask you to stay with us. We certainly want to continue this conversation.
But right now, I want to go to Oren Liebermann, our correspondent at the Pentagon.
Oren, I believe the secretary of defense, Lloyd Austin, he spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, earlier today before this attack was underway by Iran. And what -- what are we hearing? What are you hearing at the Pentagon?
OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: And General Erik Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, was just in the region for a couple of days, not only meeting with the senior Israeli military leadership, but also discussing the security situation in the region in anticipation of this attack. The U.S. is very clearly ready to intercept whatever it can coming from Iran, whether that's drones, cruise missiles, potentially ballistic missiles, although, we have seen no reports those have been launched.
But the U.S. and Israel clearly on the same page here with trying to intercept as much as possible.
So let's break down both from the U.S. side and the Israeli side what that might look like.
The U.S. obviously has forces not only in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, but also as Norman Roule pointed out, there, there are us Navy assets in the Red Sea.
Now those have, not only from destroyers, but from U.S. fighter aircraft, intercepted Houthi launches towards Israel going north along the Red Sea. The U.S. has shown the capability to do this.
There are also assets on the ground, aerial defense assets that could try to pick off an intercept drones and cruise missiles launched depending of course, on their route, whether they come across Iraq and Syria.
They could also be launched traveling across Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
There are different options and different ways and routes for Iran to try to target Israel through these long-range options.
Of course, that also depends on what the target is within Israel, whether it would be in the north, for example, in Haifa, trying to target Tel Aviv, which is not only the population center, but also where the Ministry of Defense sits.
Or, for example, trying to target Dimona, which is the nuclear facility in Israel. So all of these are different possibilities.
We have also seen on flight-tracking Web sites, on ABS Exchange that there was a U.S. tanker in the air, an aerial refueling platform. That strongly suggests there are U.S. fighter up in the air.
So that might be another possibility for trying to intercept some of these drones or cruise missiles before they get to Israel.
As Barak Ravid pointed out, the goal is likely to intercept as many as possible before they get to Israel.
And then, of course, Israel has its own very capable multi-layered aerial defense system. Long-range would be Arrow Three. That's designed to intercept or be able to intercept ballistic missile launches.
[17:40:01]
There's the medium-range David's Sling. And then there's the short- range Iron Dome that we've seen used repeatedly. Now Iran is very much aware, as is Hamas, as is Hezbollah, that these systems are high-quality, but their flaw is that they can be overwhelmed with quantity.
We have seen this. And I've seen this on the ground in Israel. A number of rockets are fired and simply enough are fired that Iron Dome can't get to all of them.
Now there is obviously much more time here to coordinate the response and be able to use not only Iron Dome at short-range, but David's Sling at a much longer range. But it seems that are runs goal here is to try to fire so much that Israel can't intercept all of it and it will overwhelm the system.
All right. Iran is looking for some way to be able to claim some kind of victory here. So that's what we should be watching out in the course of the coming hours as we see not only how many we're fired, more than 100 drones at this point, then we're still waiting for a number of cruise missiles.
But whether more is fired not only from Iran, whether it comes from Hezbollah in Lebanon as well, and potentially the Houthis in Yemen.
Alex, I will point out one more historical bit of context that may be sheds light on how we can expect this to play out in terms of what we hear from Iran.
Back in, I think it was May 2018, Iranian forces in Syria fired 20 rockets at the occupied Golan Heights in Israel. All of those we're intercepted. There was no damage on the ground there. I was there on the ground.
But Iran then came out a short time later and said Israel was lying, that the rockets had done damage and then claimed victory. Do we see something like that with what is obviously a much larger attack coming from Iran itself? It's worth keeping that in mind as we see how this evening plays out.
MARQUARDT: Yes, it certainly will be. Right now, we know that there are more than 100 attack drones heading towards Israel, along with cruise missiles, so it is a significant amount of firepower heading that way. It is almost 1:00 a.m. in the morning, of course, in Israel.
Jeremy Diamond is in Jerusalem.
Jeremy, I understand you have new reporting. What are you hearing?
DIAMOND: Yes, that's right, Alex. I just spoke with an Israeli military official who tells me that the Israeli military intends to try and intercept these drones, more than 100 of which have been launched now by Iran, before they reach Israeli skies.
We know, of course, that Israel has been coordinating significantly with the U.S. military and that U.S. air defense assets could also be deployed to intercept some of these drones. And so the combination of that could mean that the majority of these
drones could potentially be taken down before they even reach Israeli skies.
We know, of course, that there is a significant lag time, hours between a when these drones we're launched from Iran and when they are anticipated to make -- to arrive in Israeli skies.
And so that gives the Israeli military and its partners a significant amount of time to try and intercept them. And the goal is, indeed, to do so before they enter Israeli airspace.
I'm also told that Israel anticipates that Iran may launch additional waves of drones. That may be why the estimates that we got earlier have started to tick up. I was initially told dozens of drones fired, launched by Iran. That has since ticked up to over a hundred.
Additionally, Alex, Israel -- this Israeli military official would not yet confirm with 100 percent confidence that cruise missiles have been launched. But he did say that Israel is, indeed, monitoring other Iranian assets for additional potential types of attacks.
Indicating that that is it's certainly the expectation here in Israel that these waves of drones will not be the only asset that Iran uses as it carries out what is being described to me as a very large-scale attack by Iranian forces directed at Israel.
So those are the updates we have at the moment. And we're also, of course, Alex waiting to see whether this is just going to becoming from Iranian forces directly, or whether Iran will also activate its proxies in the region.
I think what's so interesting about this moment that we're in is that, for six months, we have been expecting that, if a significant escalation happened to broaden this conflict between Israel and Hamas, that it would come from Hezbollah, where Iran -- where Israel and Iran -- and Hezbollah have been exchanging near daily cross-fire -- cross- border exchanges of fire.
But right now, it seems that the major escalation is instead going to come directly between Israel and Iran rather than via Iran's proxy forces. But again, waiting to see whether or not those proxy forces could also be pulled in.
MARQUARDT: Yes, it's such important points, Jeremy. I mean, this is such a formidable attack, significant attack by Iran.
But they're crossing a huge amount of territory. They're crossing places like Iraq and Jordan, in theory, where there are significant American air defenses and forces that will certainly contribute to the efforts to take down these drones and cruise missiles.
[17:45:03]
I want to note some new reporting from our M.J. Lee at the White House. She's saying that President Biden is meeting with his national security team right now to assess Iran's attack on Israel. That meeting is now underway in the, in the Situation Room, according to a U.S. official.
General Mark Hertling, I want to get your sense of what Jeremy just reported, that there will now be efforts by the U.S. to knock down these drones and missiles outside of Israeli airspace.
How effective could that be?
HERTLING: I think it could be very effective. And first of all, Jeremy's reporting is excellent. But I've got to give kudos to Mr. Roule, because his assessment of the intelligence capability of the sensors -- again, I'll go back to that statement I made you earlier.
The criticality of the radars, the overhead sensors, and even the satellite sensors to determine where these drones, missiles, rockets, cruise missiles are all coming from is critically important. So a combination of the radars on those ships.
And if you've ever been on a destroyer or a cruiser, the kind that are like in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea and even in the Mediterranean, you would know that each one of those ships have multiple radars that can pick up these devices. So it's the sensors, it's incurred that's critical.
What Jeremy mentioned about the potential for the U.S. defending the skies over Israel before these systems, whatever they happen to be, whichever type happened to come in first, yes, the U.S. we'll defend against them.
And they have capabilities on the ground, like Patriot Missiles and other types of air defense systems. So what I'd say, Alex, is the air defenders and the airman in the -- in the sky and the satellite watchers are very busy right now.
And they're looking, again, I'll just say it one more time, in multiple directions.
The other point that you've made with Barak Ravid, I think, is an important one. Because Israel is now going to be faced not only with missiles and rockets coming in from multiple directions, but they're facing a different kind of war.
What they have in Gaza is a counterterrorism, counterinsurgency fight. They're seeing the same thing as counterterrorism and rockets coming out of Hezbollah in northern, or in southern Lebanon.
What they're now seeing is a new conventional rocket missile strike against a conventional force of Iranians with a lot of proxies. When you start dividing up a country's capability -- and Israel has experienced this before, where they were trying not only to do a counterterrorism fight, but also a counterinsurgency and a conventional fight -- it gets extremely complex and difficult.
And you have the military of that country looking in multiple directions to defend itself. I think that's what these swarms are trying to do to black out the
Israeli systems, to strike them from different directions, to cause complex attacks. And it's going to be very challenging if these continue, as we've seen in the first couple hours of this fight.
MARQUARDT: Kim Dozier, I want to bring you into this conversation.
I was struck by this statement from the National Security Council that they expect this retaliation by Iran to go on for several hours. They didn't say how many, of course, but they did put a fine enough point on it that they expect this to last for hours and not more than that.
I wonder what you make of that, and how they would have come to that conclusion,
KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: I think the assumption is that Israel will be able to shoot many of that first volley of UAVs that's headed its way, the armed drones.
So multiple volleys will be needed to try to make the kind of example that Iran seems to want to make. A picture that will go across the Middle East and the Arab world, showing some sort of massive damage in Israel proper.
The problem is that some of the main areas where Iran might want to hit, like Israel's Pentagon, curia, it's in a populated part of Tel Aviv. So if Israel finds that Iran is aiming at that, even if they don't hit it, the push will beyond for the kinds of response that gets you into escalation.
I'm also taking a step back and thinking about not just the immediate coming hours when we're waiting to see what lands and where, but what this means terms of -- in the run-up to this, I and many different Iran watchers, who been saying, but a direct strike on Israel would be so new as to be horribly groundbreaking.
And then it calls into question all of the other assumptions we've made, like, oh, yes, Iran could make a nuclear weapon. it's got enough fissile material to possibly make three nuclear weapons, according to some estimates. But it wouldn't because it doesn't want to trigger an attack.
[17:50:14]
Well, it's taken the kind of step in these past few hours that can escalate and bring on a U.S. response. So we're in new territory on a number of different fronts.
And then the next thing I'm looking for is, come Monday, with a U.N. Security Council trying to react to this, what will Russia and China do?
Iran has been arming Russia with those Shahira drones that it's probably using right now against Israel for Russia's war on Ukraine. Russia is probably going to hold out against any potential censure of Iran as it has in the past. And that way we're going to be seeing this this new axis forming or
solidifying of Russia, probably China and Iran, against the West no matter what those missiles hit -- drones at this point, no missiles so far.
MARQUARDT: And, Jeremy Diamond, we are getting more news about what Iran is firing at Israel. What more have you learned?
DIAMOND: Yes, hugely significant news that will make the news of the drones really pale in comparison. And that is that Iran is now saying that they have launched the first wave of ballistic missiles, firing those at Israel, according to Iranian state media.
These missiles travel at a far, far faster rate, with some estimates putting it at about a dozen minutes between when they are launched from Iran and when they could reach Israeli soil.
And this was reported in just the last five minutes or so. So we could be in a situation where we hear -- we're hearing sirens in parts of Israel in the coming minutes, if, indeed, those reports from Iranian state media are accurate.
But of course, ballistic missiles would carry a more significant payload and also potentially have a more significant impact within Israel if, indeed, they make it through Israels defense systems.
Now we know that, of course, beyond the Iron Dome missile defense system, Israel has a number of other air defense systems, many of which it has tested for the first time during the course of the last six months of this war.
In part, because Iran's proxies in the region have been firing missiles from various directions. Just this past week, we saw Israel test, for the first time, a sea-based Iron Dome -- Iron Dome system, intercepting missiles that we're fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen.
We know that Israel has tested it's Arrow defense, missile defenses system as well. So there's no question that Israel is prepared for a variety of aerial threats directed at its soil.
But this will certainly be the biggest test of all of those air defense assets.
We've been reporting, of course, in the last hour, that Israel is going to try and intercept these drones outside of its airspace. Whether or not it can do so with these ballistic missiles is another question.
But certainly very, very significant news that Iranian state media reporting that it has now fired the first wave of ballistic missiles at Israeli directly.
MARQUARDT: All right. Jeremy Diamond, I want you to stay with us.
Norm Roule, can I bring you back in?
And please explain to us and our viewers what you think we could expect to see in the coming moments.
You heard Jeremy Diamond say there, now Iranian state media is reporting that they have fired ballistic missiles. There had been previous reporting about cruise missiles and drones.
So it is almost 1:00 in the morning in Israel. What could we expect to see in the coming moments?
ROULE: Much depends on the reality of those comments. If they're genuine. And Israel is able to with -- with U.S. assistance, bring down these weapons, then Iran will be embarrassed that their weapons we're not able to achieve anything and may likely continue attacks for that reason.
At the same time, if these reports are true, then Israel has got to consider whether it undertakes a counter strike of some sort against Iran to prevent further attacks.
Not because it wishes to escalate the conflict, but whether some sort of action, be it cyber, be at drones, some other operation, could degrade Iran's capability to fire additional ballistic missiles against Israel.
MARQUARDT: General Mark Hertling, Norm there makes a good point. We should obviously be taking with a grain of salt what we're hearing from Iranian state media here.
They're the ones reporting that these first barrage of ballistic missiles has been fired at Israel. We've previously reported cruise missiles and drones.
But General Hertling, to what extent do you think that this is a matter of minutes? Can you lay out the timing of what we could expect to see? Because obviously those drones are moving a lot slower than many of those missiles if they are, indeed, flying at Israel?
[17:55:16]
HERTLING: Yes, we discussed this earlier, Alex. And I think what we're seeing is the potential for those dramas to continue the movement toward the Israeli border as Israel prepares for it.
And at the same time, the cruise missiles, if they have, in fact, been launched, could reach there much faster. So the cruise missiles are going to overwhelm the big systems, as Alex, or as Oren Liebermann and Jeremy Diamond both mentioned.
Those will be the priority targets at first to knock down those cruise missiles and destroy them. Then will come the drones and that will overwhelm the rest of the system.
If it's been synchronized well -- and what I suggested earlier might happen -- is you'd have a combination of those Iranian drones, Iranian cruise missiles, a sudden launch of rockets from Hezbollah, as Mr. Rule posited, and also some cruise missiles coming out of Yemen that have been launched by the Houthis. They should, if this was a well-coordinated action, they would all hit
at the same time. Or if they're sequential, it could also cause significant challenges for the Israeli air defense.
And that's why I think you're going to see the United States with their systems in the area helping to defend and actually attack those incoming missiles from a bunch of different directions.
But again, depending on the numbers, the directions, and the types, you're going to see a very complex attack. And it's going to be very challenging to the ear defenders and the soldiers, sailors, and airmen in the area.
MARQUARDT: Are these missiles and drones more likely to get intercepted outside of Israeli airspace or the more formidable air defense systems inside of Israel?
HERTLING: Yes, there's an acronym we use sometimes in the military. Alex. It's called DOTS, and that stands for "depends on the situation." Again, it depends on where they're coming from.
You don't have a solid wall of air defense. We've learned that in Ukraine as we've talked about what they can do. So there is an integrated air defense, a bubble. Israel is a much smaller territory. It's about 250 miles long by 70 miles wide. So you can defend inside the territory better.
There are some capabilities to hit outside the territory, both from the long-range missiles. As Oren Liebermann stated, the Arrow and the David's Sling, can hit outside the boundaries and stop those missiles and rockets from coming in.
But you can't stop all of them. It isn't a perfect wall. But you will be able to stop some that are headed toward key targets.
The problem is, in some of these, if it's a ballistic missile or ground-to-ground, you know where it's launched from, you know, where it's heading, you know, it's apogee and perigee and fight, you can intercept it.
But a cruise missile can go back and forth just like the drones and can maneuver around. So it's much more difficult to use some of the systems that Israel has to hit those moving targets.
The ones that go from ground-to-ground are easy to hit once you pick them up on the radar. The other ones are much more difficult because they fly next to the earth or they go a circuitous route.
So it's much more challenging from an operator's perspective to knock those down.
MARQUARDT: And, Oren Liebermann, at the Pentagon over the past few days, the head of Central Command, so -- well, we don't have Oren apparently.
But I want to go back to Norm Roule. We've seen over the past few days, Norm, General Kurilla, the head of
Central Command, which is the area of operation, which is the Middle East, he's been in Israel.
What have you made of his activities and his messaging while he's been there? What is the message that the U.S. has been trying to send by having General Kurilla in place?
ROULE: General Kurilla's presence and Israel is a tangible demonstration of us is willing to marry together our finest and most experienced regional military personnel with Israeli operators to plan an effective defense that it exploits mutual capabilities.
And moving back to the point, made strongly by General Hertling, moving forces that CENTCOM has a very effectively used against the Houthis, north, to support Israeli systems.
As we'll as the existing air defense systems in the eastern Mediterranean required some high-level conversations, as well as probably some understanding of what we could do over Iraq, and perhaps some sense of what regional partners would do.
[17:59:55]
For example, some countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, would not want Iranian missiles transiting their territory or running drones. They may not want to be very public about shooting it down, but they have a responsibility to protect their territory.
