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Election 2000: Middle America Powers Gore's Lead

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JOIE CHEN, CNN ANCHOR: As the two major candidates stampede toward the center, a quick check of where the race stands now. The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup tracking poll of likely voters gives Al Gore 48 percent to George Bush's 43 percent, signaling Gore is holding on to a slight advantage.

Joining us with for more on the campaign is our senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

Bill, what's Mr. Bush's motivation bow, what prompting his strategy here?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: The numbers, Joie, take a look. First, look at low-income voters, people making under $30,000. They are a quarter of all the voters, and a month ago they were voting 58 to 33 percent for gore. And now they are voting 58 to 33 percent for Gore: no change.

Now take a look at high-income voters, people making over $75,000. They are also a quarter of the voters, the rich quarter. A month ago, they were voting for Bush by an eight point margin. And now they are still voting for Bush, but almost a 20 point margin, 56- 37, Bush has picked up support among the rich.

Now look at middle America, the half of all voters who make between $30,000 and $75,000 a year. Just after the two party conventions, Bush led among middle-income voters 49 to 43. And now, Gore leads by 10 points, 51 to 41. Those are numbers that George Bush is worried about. He is losing middle America. And you know, just a month ago, he had them.

CHEN: So Bill, we've seen the numbers. What are these middle class voters looking for?

SCHNEIDER: I would say they're looking for a change of leadership, but not a change of direction in the country. And that is why they were voting for Bush until last month. Then, what happened was Gore separated himself from President Clinton, and suddenly Gore looked like a change of leadership without a change of direction.

Gore's detailed policy proposals are really aimed at protecting and extending the safety net in this country, which is what middle class voters want when things are going well, someone to protect the status quo. CHEN: So what can Mr. Bush offer them?

SCHNEIDER: Well, you know, with Clinton out of picture, new leadership really isn't selling. Now Bush has to compete with Gore by offering change on the issues. But how do you get a satisfied middle class to buy change on the issues? The answer is, you have to package it as reform.

Bush says he wants to modernize programs, like Social Security and Medicare and education with more competition and more choice for taxpayers. Bush argues that the country with the surplus can now afford to take some risks perhaps, to do things it couldn't do when times were tough.

He argues that vouchers and Social Security -- private investments and Social Security are a way to modernize those programs.

You know, Joie, distrust of government was a very powerful force among middle class voters when times were bad.

Bush is betting that it is still a powerful force now that times are good.

CHEN: We'll see, our senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

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