Sunday Morning News

Barak Threatens Palestinians as Unrest Plagues Middle East Peace Process

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: We begin in the Mideast, where there is more violence today and a new warning from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak.

About an hour ago he held a news conference where he repeated his threat against the Palestinians.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

EHUD BARAK, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: If in the next two days we do not see a complete change in the patterns of behavior and a cessation of violence, then we will consider that this is a deliberate decision by the Palestinian Authority, a decision to stop negotiations and we shall instruct the defense forces and the Israel defense forces to act accordingly.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: In other developments, the U.N. Security Council has approved a resolution condemning the fighting which has left at least 80 people dead. And three Israeli soldiers have been captured by Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon.

Despite the U.N. resolution calling for an immediate end to the fighting between Palestinians and Israelis, the unrest continues. For the latest, we go to CNN Jerusalem bureau chief Mike Hanna -- Mike.

MIKE HANNA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Miles, within the last hour the Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Barak, has repeated his ultimatum that he gave the Palestinians saying that if the violence does not stop within the next 48 hours the peace process is over. Israel will take whatever actions it deems necessary.

This ultimatum was first made Saturday, rejected by the Palestinians, who have argued throughout this crisis that it is not they who are responsible for the violence on the ground, it is the activities of the Israeli security forces that are leading to it.

Well, on the ground two sporadic incidents of conflict, incidents, as well, that go beyond the violence that we have seen in recent days involving on a number of occasions gun battles between Israeli forces and Palestinians. We've seen incidents involving civilians. Overnight a bus carrying Israelis in the Gaza Strip was fired upon. At least seven of the people aboard the bus were injured, two of them seriously.

This just one of the incidents where civilians have been getting involved in the Tiberius, the Israeli northern town. An Arab mosque was attacked by Israelis. The mosque was severely damaged, the Israelis who attacked it saying they were extracting retaliation for an attack, they said, that happened on Joseph's Tomb, an Israeli enclave in the town of Nablus that the Israelis withdrew from in the course of Saturday and which was subsequently destroyed, a tomb that the Palestinian Authority have said that they will restore and repair to the way it was before the Israelis pulled out.

But all these incidents just giving a sign of the growing confrontation on the ground, a confrontation that has been underway between Palestinian demonstrators coming up against Israeli security forces. Now these little sporadic outbreaks of citizens taking affairs into their own hands, signs that it will be very difficult for those who are attempting to control the intensity of the conflict, whether they do have any control over the emotions where the anger, all emotions are running high, that's a very difficult thing to understand at this particular point.

Even if there is an agreement to end the violence, it's going to be very difficult, by all accounts, to actually persuade those on the ground to stop it -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Mike, going back to that news conference about an hour ago from Ehud Barak, no sense of softening there. It seemed as if he is as hard as ever on his positions, as Israel goes into a religious holiday.

HANNA: That's correct. Israel is going into the Yom Kippur holiday, the most serious of the year for Jews throughout the world. And Mr. Barak made quite clear that there was no sense of backing down in any way. He repeated that ultimatum that he'd made on Saturday. He repeated his assertion that the violence is the sole responsibility of the Palestinian Authority and that it's the Palestinian Authority who've got the power to restrain it.

That is something the Palestinian Authority says lies in the hands of the Israeli forces -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: CNN's Jerusalem Bureau Chief Mike Hanna, thanks much.

The White House has launched what it is calling a full court diplomatic press to restore calm in the Middle East. As CNN's Kelly Wallace reports, President Clinton canceled weekend fund-raising trips to deal with the crisis.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLY WALLACE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): President Clinton remained inside the White House, canceling a Midwest political fund-raising trip, calling Democratic supporters to explain Mideast tensions kept him away.

WILLIAM J. CLINTON, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We are a very tough moment now and I am spending all my time working this on the phone.

WALLACE: The Clinton administration launched what it called a full court diplomatic press. Mr. Clinton phoned Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright reached out to Syrian and Lebanese leaders, the White House facing several challenges.

One, ending the violence between Israelis and Palestinians, Prime Minister Barak's 48 hour deadline adding to the urgency. Publicly, U.S. officials would only say it is understandable that the Israelis, who feel they have taken steps to reduce the violence, would want the Palestinians to reciprocate.

Privately, a senior administration official said provocative statements by either side are not helpful.

Another concern, new tensions along the Israeli/Lebanese border following the capture of three Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah guerrillas. Israel is holding Syria and Lebanon responsible. Mideast analysts believe the U.S. can have considerable influence on Syria's new leader, Bashar Al-Assad.

ROBERT SATLOFF, THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY: And the administration is key to showing Bashar what the price will be if Syrian influence is not brought to bear to make sure that the Lebanese border is quiet and the Israeli soldiers are returned to where they belong.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WALLACE: And one other issue the White House was quite focused on yesterday, that U.N. Security Council resolution condemning the "excessive use of force against the Palestinians" without specifically naming Israel. The administration was quite concerned that that resolution would not help the two parties end the violence and get back to the peace table. In the end, though, the U.S. did not veto it. It abstained, the U.N. ambassador, Richard Holbrooke, saying the U.S. found it one-sided, but the U.S. abstained -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Well, Kelly, take us inside that decision for just a moment. The U.S., of course, a staunch ally of Israel's. The fact that there was an abstention there, does that speak volumes?

WALLACE: It does. It was, Richard Holbrooke described this as one of the most difficult, if not the most difficult, issue facing him at the U.N. in his 14 month reign there. Basically, according to U.S. officials, they said it was not a resolution they could support. There are some things in it they do support such as having an inquiry into what led to that violence and also getting the two parties back to the peace table as soon as possible.

But in the end, though, in the full look at that resolution, it was not something the U.S. could support, one U.S. official saying it would not be consistent with the role the U.S. has been trying to play as an honest broker in the peace process, not consistent with the role the U.S. is trying to play, not trying to take sides, but trying to help both sides get back to the peace table -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: And to that end, Kelly, what do we anticipate will be going on at the White House today? You say this full court press, sort of lay out the scene for us. Who's on the phone and who's going to be working it hard and heavy today?

WALLACE: Well, at this point, we don't believe that President Clinton has made any additional phone calls throughout the night or early this morning. He did speak late yesterday afternoon with the Palestinian leader and the Israeli prime minister. But we can expect the president to be monitoring developments, working the phones as needed. He was expected to go up to Chappaqua, New York last night to be with his wife, as we know, a U.S. Senate candidate who is going to debate her Republican opponent this morning. Not clear, though, if the President will go up there later this afternoon, U.S. officials saying he will be monitoring the situation, his national security aides going out on the television talk shows this morning.

O'BRIEN: CNN's Kelly Wallace at the White House, thanks much.

The violence in the Mideast is on the brink of spinning out of control and the prospect for peace appears to be disintegrating each and every day.

Former Deputy National Security Adviser James Steinberg joins us from Washington with more perspective on the volatile situation. Mr. Steinberg, thanks for being with us.

JAMES STEINBERG, FORMER DEPUTY NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Good morning, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Put yourself in your former role for just a moment, the national security adviser role, deputy national security adviser. What advice would you be giving the President today?

STEINBERG: Well, the President and the region is facing, perhaps, the most serious crisis since the Oslo peace process began in 1993 and I think that right now it is the influence of the United States that is the one thing that can help bring the parties to see that the costs of moving forward, the costs of the dangers are too great to take those chances.

And so the President and his secretary of state and his whole peace team is going to have to work very hard on this problem.

O'BRIEN: The U.S. prides itself as being, I guess there are some quotations around this phrase, an honest broker for peace. Do you get the sense that that is something that is viewed that way in the Arab world right now? It seems as if Arabs may be solidifying on the side of the Arab world and perhaps against the U.S. and its role.

STEINBERG: Well, I think it's, in some ways it's ironic that the progress in the peace process, which has highlighted this difficult problem of Jerusalem, has created this impasse that we're facing today. I think that there is obviously, when the United States takes such a prominent role, it takes some risks that people will see it taking sides. But we really have no choice here. And I think that in the end, the leaders of the Arab world understand that the United States is the only one that can help weather this crisis.

O'BRIEN: Just a little while ago Mr. Barak was saying that Syria plays such a key role in all of this, and this is sort of something that maybe gets overlooked at times here in the United States, how important Syria's role is in Lebanon. This is the first serious crisis that we haven't had Hafez Al-Assad at the helm there, his son calling the shots.

How much of an impact do you think that has on the situation?

STEINBERG: Well, I think that what we've seen from the new president of Syria suggests that he, too, understands that the future of his country is not in confrontation, that he wants to bring Syria into the modern world, and that gives us some influence and some leverage here. And so though he's still an untested quantity, I think the United States does have an opportunity to make clear to him that there are both opportunities and costs for how Syria handles this crisis.

O'BRIEN: How much do you think domestic politics is playing into this? First of all, let's talk about Mr. Arafat. Is, do you get the sense that his firm grip on the reigns of power may be slipping and that might be somehow affecting the way things are playing out in the Middle East right now?

STEINBERG: Well, Arafat is clearly riding the tiger here, that he is under pressure to take some steps to reign in the violence. But I think he's not sure what will happen if he orders his own security forces to shoot on the demonstrators. And so he needs to come to grips with this. Because if he doesn't get it under control, his own leadership will be affected. But at the same time, he takes some risks if he takes strong measures.

O'BRIEN: And turning now to Israel, Mr. Barak, his position, his support is at stake at the end of this month, Knesset elections. How much is that factoring into what he is doing right now?

STEINBERG: Well, the images that the Israeli people are seeing of the violence, of the demonstrators throwing stones, of attacking Israeli security forces is putting Barak in a very difficult position. He needs to show that he's got the kind of leadership that can make this change, that he can be firm and that he can protect Israeli security. And he's made very clear that he's going to raise the stakes if that's what's necessary.

O'BRIEN: That's a tough tightrope to walk, though, isn't it?

STEINBERG: It's very risky because if the situation doesn't come under control, his own political position will be seriously undermined. But I don't think he has much choice at this point.

O'BRIEN: Let me ask you this, putting yourself in the position of the Palestinians for just a moment, isn't it, at this juncture couldn't they sort of declare victory given the fact that they've got the U.N. resolution -- and we're looking at some of the pictures of the uprisings at the tomb, Joseph's Tomb. Could the Israeli forces, having evacuated from these sites, the U.N. with the resolution condemning the Israelis, couldn't the Palestinians declare victory and then try to broker some kind of peace out of this?

STEINBERG: Well, I think that would be in the interests of the Palestinian leadership. But again the question is just how much control does Arafat have over the street and is he willing to take the risks to his own leadership that would come from really trying to get the people off the street, get the violence under control and get back to the peace table.

O'BRIEN: I've read before that in some senses the most lasting agreements, the most, the positive steps toward peace in the Middle East have only occurred before there was some serious bloodshed. Do you go along with that theory and could this be setting the stage, in an ironic way, for some sort of lasting peace agreement?

STEINBERG: Well, certainly in the past we've seen situations where the crisis has made clear to the leadership and the people how great a risk they're running by continuing the confrontation. I think that's very clear from the scope of this crisis and the scale of the risks that's being taken. But it is a dangerous game and we can all hope that the leaders will look into the abyss that they're facing right now, understand the risks of a wider conflict which we're now seeing and pull back and understand that they need to get together because no one wins, neither Arafat nor Barak, if this violence continues.

O'BRIEN: James Steinberg is a former deputy national security adviser. Thanks very much for your insights this morning.

STEINBERG: Thank you.

O'BRIEN: All right.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com