CNN Insight

Thawing Relations on Korean Peninsula

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JONATHAN MANN, HOST: New steps to heal a nation cut in half. South Korea and North Korea try to move closer together after half a century of suspicion. The year 2000 comes to an end with new optimism about the two Koreas.

Hello and welcome. This week on INSIGHT will be a little bit different. We're going to spend the last week of this year looking at the history we watched unfold since the year began. And we'll begin with a place that has seen both suffering and celebration, Korea.

The two governments of the divided peninsula have had closer contact and higher level contact than ever before. A Korean won the Nobel Peace Prize for the first time. And a few won something else, a chance to simply see and embrace family members they hadn't seen in 50y years.

On our program today, a look back at the two Koreas in the year 2000. We begin with this report from our Seoul bureau chief, Sohn Jie-Ae.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SOHN JIE-AE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A handshake few believed would ever happen, a handshake between leaders of countries that consider each other their greatest enemy. During the three-day summit, the world got their first real glimpse of the reclusive North Korean leader Kim Jong Il talking, making jokes, and being a gracious host to South Korean President Kim Dae Jung.

The summit came to an end with the two leaders sharing many symbolic gestures and an agreement that led to more changes. Handshakes across the table as South and North Korean officials in the political, economic, and even military sectors met each other for the first time.

Two months later, emotional reunions. Two hundred families who have lived apart since the Korean War were permitted to temporarily visit relatives across the border. Reunited mothers and sons, sisters, and brothers have four short days to make up for the 50 years lost then parted, not knowing if they would ever see each other again.

A railway and highway across the heavily fortified border between the two Koreas is planned. South Korea has already broke ground. Military officials on both sides have agreed to cooperate to clear thousands of mines that are thought to be scattered along the routes.

North Korea's leader Kim Jong Il has also extended his hand to another historical enemy, the United States. He welcomed Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and hinted Pyongyang may stop developing and exporting long-range ballistic missiles.

South Korean President Kim Dae Jung received the Nobel Peace Prize partly for his efforts to engage the North. But for all that's happened since that historic handshake, the euphoria in Seoul over what's happening with the North seems to have dissipated.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): I'm disappointed because they don't seem to be reciprocating what we are giving them. Everything seems to be going well because we provide economic benefits. But as soon as the North think this is not enough, then they are likely to stop these exchanges.

JIE-AE: This woman says the North seems to be warming up to the South. "But I still can't seem to trust them," she says.

In fact, it took much longer than expected for Red Cross officials from both Koreas to agree on a second round of family reunions. And very little progress has been made on setting up a permanent meeting place or allowing family members to exchange mail or phone calls.

Military officials are now negotiating. But the topic is limited to cooperation on the railway and highway project. The two Koreas remain technically at war since a peace treaty has not replaced the armistice that ended the Korean War, which means very little change for the two million soldiers who continue to face each other across the heavily fortified border.

(on camera): Hardly anyone expected the process of ending half a century of hostility to be quick or easy. And as the two Koreas end a year that has seen some dramatic progress, they seem to be struggling with the next step.

Sohn Jie-Ae, CNN, Seoul.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MANN: The extraordinary overtures across the DMZ are only one part of exchanges underway in Korea. The Norwegian Nobel Committee chose President Kim Dae Jung for the Nobel Peace Prize for the year 2000 because of his role in the South crusading for democracy at enormous personal costs.

We turn again to Sohn Jie-Ae for a closer look at the life of South Korea's president.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JIE-AE (voice-over): Kim Dae Jung often compares himself to the honeysuckle, a plant which blooms in the spring after a long and harsh winter. Kim's winter was longer and harsher than most.

Born in 1925 in the southwestern Korean island of Hali (ph), Kim entered politics just after the Korean War. He was elected to parliament in the early 1950s just days before General Park Chung Hee led a military coup and dissolved the National Assembly. Kim Dae Jung took a stand against the military dictatorship and became the opposition party's presidential candidate at the young age of 46.

(on camera): Just about a week before the vote, Kim held a rally here at Ton Shin Don (ph) Park. A quarter of Seoul's population, more than a million, gathered to hear the eloquent young candidate make a fiery call for democracy.

(voice-over): Two days before the election, a mysterious car crash almost killed Kim, leaving him with a permanent limp. It was not the last time Kim's life was put in danger.

During a trip to Japan, he was abducted by what was later revealed as Korean agents who tried to dump him into the sea. After President Park's assassination in 1979, opposition leaders like Kim hoped for a new era of freedom and democracy. But General Chun Doo Hwan placed the country under martial law and arrested Kim and the other pro-democracy leaders, charging them with treason.

Learning of Kim's arrest, the southwestern town of Kwangju erupted. A brutal military crackdown led to the massacre of hundreds, some say thousands, of civilians.

Human rights lawyer Hahn Seung-Hun was arrested with Kim and was there when a military court gave Kim the death sentence.

HAHN SEUNG-HUN, ATTORNEY (through translator): When the judge pronounced sentence, people shouted and started weeping. Then someone started singing the national anthem. And everyone started to sing along. And the military party tried to drag away the singers.

JIE-AE: Pressure from the United States forced the government to reduce Kim's sentence. Recently released photos show Kim in the tiny cell in which he served more than two years of solitary confinement.

The government banished Kim to the United States in 1982. Returning home three years later, Kim was promptly placed under house arrest.

Kim's supporters say that despite everything, he has never wavered in his convictions on human rights and democracy. One of the first things Kim did after being elected president was to approve the release and pardon of past military leaders and Presidents Chun Doo Hwan and Roh Tae Woo, a sign that however long and harsh the winter may be, it cannot keep the honeysuckle from blooming.

Sohn Jie-Ae, CNN, Seoul.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MANN: We have to take a break. But when we come back, a scholar of Korean affairs looks back and looks forward. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MANN: Welcome back.

A surprise element in this year's developments on the Korean peninsula was the personality of the man in Pyongyang. Mike Chinoy has a profile now of the other Korean newsmaker of 2000, Kim Jong Il.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MIKE CHINOY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Inside North Korea, he's treated as a virtual god, worshipped by millions, the source of all power and wisdom. Yet for decades outside the country, Kim Jong Il was seen as a dangerous lunatic, frequently portrayed in western intelligence reports as a drunken playboy hooked on James Bond movies and Swedish models, an irrational dictator with frightening nuclear and missile ambitions.

But this is the year when the skeptics were confounded as a new Kim Jong Il emerged on the national stage.

MOON JUNG YIN, ADVISER TO KIM DAE JUNG: In my personal observation, he is an extremely rational guy and competent guy.

CHINOY: Moon Jung Yin (ph) was an adviser to accompanied South Korean President Kim Dae Jung to Pyongyang in June and came away impressed by Kim Jong Il.

MOON: The way I saw him is that he was not the kind of leader who is very, very busy in his behavior. He was very flexible, accommodating, and very, very witty.

CHINOY: At his summit with Kim Dae Jung, Kim Jong Il stole the show. Relaxed, confident, apparently ready to compromise, he neutralized many of his harshest critics in Seoul and Washington.

Hosting U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright four months later, Kim sought to build on that image, agreeing to discuss a freeze of Pyongyang's missile program, admitting he was a technology buff and a fan of the Internet, even asking Albright for her e-mail address.

DOUG PAAL, ASIA PACIFIC POLICY CENTER: He was clearly much more capable and on top of his material and fully in charge in North Korea than the preliminary reports that had come out of intelligence channels over the years had suggested.

CHINOY: Yet even as the image of reclusive madman has faded, Kim Jong Il continues to preside over one of the world's most oppressive systems, a system where millions live in poverty and hunger while he boasts to visitors of his fondness for fine wine and horseback riding.

MOON: I couldn't really figure it out, how such a competent, rational, very well knowledged (ph) guy could run the country in that way.

CHINOY (on camera): Much about Kim Jong Il and his system remains a mystery. But in government circles and in Washington, there is a growing sense that the leader of North Korea is a man they can do business with.

Mike Chinoy, CNN, Seoul.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MANN: There is much more business ahead. A short time ago, we spoke to Victor Cha, professor of government at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He's still reflecting on what the world saw in Korea in 2000.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

VICTOR CHA, PROFESSOR OF GOVERNMENT, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: It's very clear that North Korea has changed tactically in terms of its behavior seeing the need to open up with the South in terms of economics in particular to enable what is a very economically decrepit regime to survive. The question is the extent to which those economic benefits and the economic cooperation that goes on between the North and the South can actually shape a positive political direction.

The initial indicators seem to be since June that things are going fairly well, although at a much slower pace. But the larger question of two years from now where the security situation in my opinion is still very much up for grabs.

MANN: People outside of North Korea know so little about what's going on there. We see so little of what's going on and understand so little about the politics of that country. Are there any obvious signals that come to mind that the rest of us should be watching for, things that would be indicators of whether there's likely to be progress?

CHA: Well, you're absolutely right. The level of opacity with regard to this regime is more than any that we've probably encountered in modern political history.

I think one of the important indicators was the transition from the father of the current leader of North Korea Kim Il Sung, his death in July of 1994 followed by a very long transition process which in many ways culminated I think with this summit in June, this past June, with the South Korean president. It sort of marked the consolidation of the son in his role as leader of the country.

Aside from that, it's very difficult to tell very much with regard to what goes on within North Korea politically. I think generally a lot of us who sort of study the situation have observed that during the father's regime, the party was very much in power. The Workers Party of North Korea was very much in power. And then since the son has come to power, it's largely been a military first regime in the sense that he's consolidated his legitimacy and his political leadership around the military.

MANN: Let me ask you to switch over to the other side of the border to the South where that nation's leader Kim Dae Jung is in a very particular position. He's been likened to some people to Mikhail Gorbachev undertaking these extraordinarily historical reforms, but with enormous problems domestically when it comes to his own political popularity.

How much pressure is he under at home for reasons completely unrelated to all the diplomacy and all the history we've seen over the last 12 months?

CHA: Well, I think he's under a lot of pressure with regard to the economic situation in the South. I mean, we can address the political situation in a moment.

But in many ways, as many will remember, he came to power at a time when the South Koreans were in the midst of their financial crisis, the liquidity (ph) crisis at the end of '97, beginning of '98. And in many ways, he had the mandate to sort of pull the country out of this terrible situation.

We've reached a point where there has been some degree of recovery. But the situation in the restructuring process is faltering right now. And for this reason, he's under a great deal of pressure by the political opposition and by the conservatives, by labor, by virtually every group in South Korea to produce results.

One of the problems or the dilemmas he faces is that his very success in terms of the sunshine policy, many would see it at odds with the problem of economic restructuring in the sense that a lot of the carrots and the benefits that the South needs to provide to the North to perpetuate the success of the engagement policy or the sunshine policy is many would argue coming off the backs of the South Korean taxpayers.

MANN: He has two years left in his term. And he has both of these problems, the problem of the North and the problem of the economy in the South. Is he going to be able to solve either of those in the two years that he has?

CHA: That's very difficult to say. I mean, I think there are certain things we can expect in the nearer term, most likely in the new year, a cabinet reshuffle, which traditionally in South Korean politics has tried to mean a new beginning, a new start. And I think that that's most likely what he will try to do.

The economic problems are not problems that are simply related to Kim Dae Jung. These are problems deep in the structure of the South Korean economy, the lack of separation between the industrial and finance sectors, reform of the conglomerates. These are things that are deeply rooted in the economy. And they would be a problem that any person in his position would have faced.

I think politically he has a very difficult uphill battle because there is a very hard line conservative group in the South, the former ruling party, the elites that had governed the country for the decades before Kim Dae Jung. And they feel very strongly opposed to this president and will seek to do things to challenge his legitimacy on the sunshine policy and on economic restructuring. So the future is very wide open I think in terms of outcomes for this presidency.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MANN: Another break now. When we come back, Bill Clinton was very involved with the Koreas. He's almost through being president. But he may have one last thing in mind. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MANN: U.S. President Bill Clinton visited Dublin, Belfast, and London earlier this month trying to help along the slow effort to bring peace to Northern Ireland. The president has just a few weeks before he leaves office on January 20. But journalists traveling with Mr. Clinton were told that the United Kingdom was not necessarily his last destination as president.

Welcome back.

For months now, the White House has been trying to decide about a presidential visit to Pyongyang. South Korean President Kim has been publicly encouraging it.

U.S. President-elect George W. Bush has had an opportunity to express his thoughts and said he would leave it up to Mr. Clinton to decide. The White House is expected to make an announcement within the next few days.

Should Bill Clinton go? We spoke to the former U.S. Ambassador to Seoul James Laney.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JAMES LANEY, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO SOUTH KOREA: I think that the possibility of achieving something that would make his trip worthwhile is very high. The question I think that President Clinton has got to ask himself is whether what the trip accomplishes will stick after the transfer of the administration when President Bush comes in. And I think that's a question that really only he and his closest advisers can answer.

I know that President Kim of South Korea has urged him to go. And he must have reasons to think that the trip would be worthwhile in the long run. And that will weigh I'm sure very strongly in favor of a trip.

MANN: What does the president need to achieve beyond simply the symbolism of having the chief executive of the United States extend a hand of friendship to that very isolated nation?

LANEY: Well, extending the hand of friendship to a country that has been our adversary for 50 years is a very important thing. But it shouldn't be undertaken lightly.

Of course, already the Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has been to Pyongyang and received a wholesome welcome there much like President Kim Dae Jung of South Korea received in June. So he doesn't need to go in order to establish a sense that we are happy to extend a hand.

I think what he has to achieve is some reduction in threat on the Korean peninsula. And that would mean a serious and conclusive agreement about missile exports and the continuing development of missiles that could be a threat to Northeast Asia and possibly in the long run to the United States.

If he could achieve that -- and only a president meeting with the top leader in Pyongyang, North Korea, could achieve it -- then I think that would be a historic trip and very much worthwhile.

MANN: How close are the two sides? I gather there is already some discussion of the terms of an agreement, what the United States would give, to get those kinds of assurances. Are they close?

LANEY: Well, I think they're pretty close. It's hard to have an absolute ironclad agreement before the president goes. And that's the trick.

Going, they say it will make it worthwhile. He's got to say himself, "Well, if I go, will I really bring home the bacon?" And that's an issue that I think is being debated right now in the State Department and the White House.

And, of course, it has been shared with President-elect Bush and his advisers. So all of that is now in the mix. And it will be a real interesting question whether or not President Clinton decides to go. As I said earlier, if he thinks that he can get something that will stick, that will make a real contribution to peace on the peninsula, I think he'll go.

MANN: The administration, the Clinton administration, has been a very crucial player in the progress between North and South Korea. But that administration is leaving office. Do you think the Bush administration is going to be very different, less sympathetic to North Korea's problems and to its future?

LANEY: I think they're going to be a little more skeptical, let's put it. I don't think they'll necessarily change policy or even make a significant shift. But I think they're going to be sort of "show me." Make sure that the things that happen are down to the clear interests of the United States.

One of the things that has happened in all of this in the last year, Jonathan, is the fact that President Kim Dae Jung in his historic summit in June with the North Korean leader, the first since the Korean War, showed that South Korea was actually establishing the policy on the peninsula and taking the lead. And the United States, although it has played a very important role in setting the stage for this nevertheless has ceded the lead to South Korea.

I think it's very important that the new administration work closely with President Kim and with Seoul government in maintaining that kind of relationship where Seoul -- because they're going to have to carry the major burden of any kind of rapprochement financially, economically, and otherwise where Seoul continues to exercise that kind of initiative.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MANN: An extraordinary year on the Korean peninsula. That's INSIGHT for this day.

I'm Jonathan Mann. This is CNN.

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