Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Talkback Live

Senator Jeffords Set to Topple the Scale

Aired May 23, 2001 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BOBBIE BATTISTA, HOST: The balance of power in the Senate hangs in the balance with Vermont Senator James Jeffords set to announce if he will remain a Republican, become an independent, or switch to the Democratic Party. The implications of the decision are enormous. If he switches parties or becomes an independent, Democrats will take charge of the Senate for the first time since 1994. How could this move affect President Bush's efforts to advance his legislative agenda on issues such as tax cuts and education, and into the future?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: Those votes I don't think are going to change on education and tax no matter what Jim Jeffords does as far as party identification. The issues have been debated and people have taken positions on those issues.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT (D-MO), MINORITY LEADER: I think it sends a very loud, clear message that while the Republicans talk bipartisanship, they fail to really do things in a bipartisan way.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BATTISTA: Does this potential party switch mean all out war in the Congress and with the White House?

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to TALKBACK LIVE. Well, is this the equivalent of Joe DiMaggio going to the Red Sox? Senator James Jeffords could switch parties. Is it a home run for the Democrats? He's on his way to Vermont, as we understand it, to make the announcement tomorrow, but do you think he'll make it all the way to the Canadian border? He's kind of persona non grata in the Republican party today.

Joining us is Bill Press, cohost of "CROSSFIRE" here on CNN, who also writes a nationally syndicated column, and we might add, he joins us smiling ear to ear from Washington today.

PRESS: Hi, Bobbie.

BATTISTA: Hi, Bill. From Chicago, Lynn Martin is with us. She's a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. She was labor secretary in the previous Bush Administration, and was a member of Congress for 10 years. Lynn's not too happy...

LYNN MARTIN, FORMER LABOR SECRETARY: ... still smiling, Bobbie, still smiling.

BATTISTA: Still smiling, good for you. Look at Bill. He looks like the Joker. You might as well paint that smile on. I take it Senator Jeffords, Bill, was not feeling the love, shall we say, from the Republican Party?

PRESS: Well, you know, Bobbie, it's been treated lately as the fact that he was upset because he wasn't invited to a White House ceremony honoring the teacher of the year who happened to come from Vermont, and he's the chairman of the Education Committee. And he didn't like that treatment. And after all, even though he didn't support the $1.6 trillion tax cut, he supported the $1.3 trillion tax cut.

So people are saying that Senator Jeffords has his nose out of joint because of those snubs, but it's really much deeper than that. He's a very -- he's the most liberal Republican in the Senate. He feels that the policy of the Republican Party has gone too far right. He's felt that way for a long time.

He thinks there's no room for a moderate like him in the Republican party,and I think finally he's just sort of fed up. So whether he becomes an independent or a Democrat, it looks like he is going to switch. It's like we know he's going to give birth tomorrow to an independent or a Democrat. We just don't know which, and this is a very long labor period we are all suffering through.

BATTISTA: Boy, it would be pretty petty if -- you are right -- if that were the main reason he decided to make this switch.

PRESS: Yes, it's a lot deeper than that.

BATTISTA: Lynn, after all, his family has been, you know, Republican there in the state of Vermont for hundreds of years. So why do you think that he's decided to do this?

MARTIN: Well, I think -- I don't think ascribing fully petty motives, after all of us have our, you know, our -- we rise to the occasions, and sometimes all of us have -- I don't think noses out of joint -- but I think, you know, we can be hurt by varying things.

On this one I would agree. When people leave parties it is a terribly difficult decision. First of all, and so I'm going to take it away from Jim just for a moment -- I served with him. I like him, so that isn't the issue here. But you are never fully trusted by your new party, obviously. And it does affect your relationships with the party to which you once were a member.

So, I think all of us believe he's going to announce he's going to be an independent. What perhaps is interesting is the popularity of individual senators, in today's world, is more and more tied to their independence. If you run and say, boy, one of the nicest things you can say about me: I always stick by my party, always stick by my leaders, always stick by my -- whatever the party tells me to do or even my president -- the other side will defeat you.

There's an increasing rise in the American electorate to actually liking independence. So I don't think politically this is going to hurt Senator Jeffords.

BATTISTA: Bill, does he need to go Democrat, or is independent just as good?

PRESS: No, I don't think he needs to go Democrat. And just picking up at what Lynn said, I think what Senator Jeffords may be feeling -- and none of us know exactly what he's going to do tomorrow, although the signs look like he's going to switch -- is he may be feeling like Ronald Reagan did when he left the Democratic Party to become Republican. He always said, "I didn't leave my party, my party left me."

MARTIN: And Phil Gramm, remember, did the same thing when he switched.

PRESS: Sure.

MARTIN: You know, we've got evidence of this. Both parties will survive. But I suspect that even Jim would agree he was not known very well nationally. He's become quite a figure in the last 48 hours, and it will definitely -- if he sits with the Democratic caucus, there is no question it will change for the White House and it will change for the Senate itself. It's going to be a huge change of parties.

PRESS: Well, he's become the most powerful Republican, or the most powerful senator in Washington overnight.

MARTIN: I know. Amazing.

PRESS: And again, I think on the issues of the environment he's been a very strong environmentalist. He's very strong pro-choice. He thought the president's tax cut was much too big and directed to the wealthiest people in this country. He thought that was wrong. It's just been a series of policy things over the years that I think finally left Senator Jeffords to this point.

And Lynn is right. It's a tectonic shift in Washington. Just one man can make whole lot of difference and will in the leadership of the United States Senate.

MARTIN: By the way, both parties, Bobbie, I think are going to have to carefully -- they're going to have to be a lot more -- I'm going to use the use the word we all know, it is not very elegant, but "schmoozing" of each member. I mean every member of the Senate, you know, there's certainly groups that could never, you know, "I don't care who's with these scum yellow dog Democrats -- I don't care who's, you know, if it is a yellow dog on the ticket I'm voting for him because he's Democrat." And certainly equally loyal Republicans. But you're going to have a lot of people, I think, in an odd way suddenly trying to use this. The Senate has always been known, much more than the House, for trying to give individual members a lot of leeway. That's going to continue and grow on both parties. Because let's assume for a moment he moves with the Democratic conference. I don't think any of us know that for sure, but let's assume it. Well, another Democrat could move back at some point. And so you are going to have both leaders making sure that their outriders are a lot more comfortable than they may have been.

I tend to be very right wing on fiscal issues and I suppose I'm called a moderate on social issues, and you are going to have to make sure everyone is more comfortable in the party, and I don't know how comfortable Jim will be with the Democrats. If that's where he moves, he will have to see. He's a very bright guy, and I think he would agree he's a loner to some extent, but that's not unusual for politicians so the president will adjust, the Senate will adjust, but it sure is interesting for this 48 hours.

BATTISTA: And not only is he powerful for these 48 hours but we were talking to the secretary of state's office in Vermont before the show and she was telling us that there's only 500,000 voters in the state of Vermont. They are all feeling, you know, a little powerful right now in that state.

MARTIN: Absolutely.

BATTISTA: They're feeling good about themselves.

MARTIN: You know, his state is smaller than my old congressional district and that was kind of that the founding fathers had in mind, that small states could be this powerful in the Senate. So I guess the founding fathers are right once more. As a Republican I'm not thrilled about them being so right this time.

PRESS: And Bobbie, think about this: He may be the most liberal Republican in the Senate, but he's the most conservative member of the Vermont Congressional Caucus. I mean, you've got Bernie Sanders representing in the Congress, Vermont.

MARTIN: And Vermont is quite happy with that. They get reelected by a substantial margin, so the state of Vermont must really enjoy independence, you know, the granite that's below it, they're tough guys there.

BATTISTA: You guys, speaking of the voters in Vermont there are some folks out there that are concerned about the effect of this switch on them. I've gotten a couple of e-mails in the last few minutes here.

Colleen in Florida says: "An elected official should not be able to change their party affiliation until the next election in which they choose to run. The voters who elected Jeffords may have not voted for him under a different party affiliation. He's just another example of irresponsibility."

And Sam in Kansas says sort of the same thing: "To switch parties after being elected is the equivalent of lying to the voters."

MARTIN: I think there's going to be some conversation. I always thought Phil Gramm did a very honorable thing. He switch parties and then resigned and ran as a Republican in his district.

Having said that, Senator Jeffords I think was just elected in the last term, and because it's a small state I think he'll be able to hear pretty quickly, and perhaps maybe he would even do that. I don't know. But if the numbers are accurate, he's pretty popular right now even with all the talk of party switching.

PRESS: And Bobbie, I have to say what's really important is not so much the D or the R after their name, it's how they vote on the issues. Senator Jeffords, people know where he stands on the issues in Vermont. That's why he was elected and elected, and as Lynn said, just re-elected very shortly last November.

An also, they -- his votes are not going to change. They elected him because they liked his stands on the issues, his votes on the issues, and that's exactly the way he's going to vote whether he's now an "I" or now a "D."

MARTIN: You know, I would say one thing: Bill and I are, we're sounding a lot more alike than different on the issue. But one of the things -- I'm not so sure, with the exception of about five issues -- people do know how senators or representatives vote. What I think they decide is what they like, and right now being independent, being viewed as freed of outside influences is a huge plus no matter if you're an R or D.

BATTISTA: I've got to take a break here. When we come back, political analyst Hal Bruno will join us.

Also the question today -- it seems inevitable -- what do think Senator Jeffords will do? Become a Democrat, go independent or stay Republican?

Go online and vote, and don't forget to sign up for my personal note and read your e-mails at our "You Said It" section.

Later in the show, with a probably Jeffords defection, are the Republicans sending candy and flowers now to Zell Miller? We'll talk about that later on. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BATTISTA: In the past 20 years, 14 Democrats switched to the Republican Party. Only one Republican moved to the Democrat. One Democrat became an independent, and Republican Senator Wayne Morris of Oregon changed to become an independent in 1952 and then switched to the Democratic Party in 1955.

Let me take a phone call. Chuck in California has been hanging on. Go ahead, Chuck.

CHUCK: Yes, I think the man is being a jerk about this. He was disappointed that he couldn't convince the president to listen to him and reduce the tax cut. Now he's showing in another way that, hey, if I don't get what I want, I'll show you. Thank you.

BATTISTA: Lynn, is it as simple as that?

MARTIN: I don't know. I mean, I can't see inside his heart and his head, but he's going to get some of that. You know, and I suspect he's ready for it.

BATTISTA: He pretty much gets the credit for scuttling the $1.6 trillion tax package.

MARTIN: He's doing something else here that I do think is interesting, if again the consensus is correct. And that is he's going to wait until fully the tax bill is over and sent to the president's desk, whatever that final -- he's not saying how he's voting -- but you know, whatever the final package is.

So you know, I can't -- obviously, as a Republican, I'm not thrilled about this whole thing. I like Jim. I wish he were staying in the party. But you know, ultimately we believe in independent choices, if you're a Republican. But he is going to hear from some people.

I don't think it does much good, by the way, for either the White House or the Senate Republicans to go too far down that road. And I think the Democrats better be careful about crowing too much, because they, you know, on numbers I suppose Republicans win. But this is going to change the agenda of the Senate. We've not talked about that at all.

The one thing leadership gets to do, regardless of party, is set a daily and even weekly and monthly agenda. And that is the ultimate power that Republicans are in danger of losing, and that will be -- it's going to be something the next few months.

BATTISTA: Let me bring Hal Bruno into the conversation now. Hal is an analyst who was political director at ABC News for 19 years after a lengthy career at "Newsweek" magazine, and he joins us from Washington.

Hal, good to see you.

HAL BRUNO, POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Bobbie. Good to be with you.

BATTISTA: When is the last time that a switch such as this has had such impact?

BRUNO: There's never been a switch that's had this kind of potential impact -- never. Other senators and congressmen and so on can switch, and it doesn't affect the balance of power the way this one does.

Lynn is absolutely right. The ramifications of this are only now beginning to sink in. It means changing, if it happens, it means changing every committee chair. It means a different leader in the Senate. The majority leader becomes Tom Daschle instead of Trent Lott. The White House is confronted with a serious, serious problem in getting its work done, because Dick Cheney as vice president no longer casts the deciding vote.

So in all the history, at least in this century, of people switching parties, I tried to look up and find one -- and I couldn't -- that has the potential impact of this one.

BATTISTA: Let me go to...

PRESS: Bobbie, let me pick up on just -- let's put some names on that, OK. It means, of course, as Hal just indicated that Trent Lott is out, Tom Daschle is in. It means that Jesse Helms is out and Joe Biden is in. It means Frank Murkowsi is out and Jeff Bingaman from New Mexico is in. It means that Orrin Hatch is out at Judiciary and Pat Leahy, the other senator from Vermont, is in.

You know, that's a pretty powerful new leadership and sense of direction. That's going to make a big difference.

MARTIN: It puts Ted Kennedy back in power. It's going to make it...

PRESS: Ted Kennedy back at Labor.

MARTIN: It does make it different. It does.

BATTISTA: In order -- you know what, you guys: In order to have this relate to the folks in the audience, what legislation is in trouble? What part of the Bush agenda is in trouble?

BRUNO: Well, first of all, Senator Jeffords has said that he's going to support the tax cut in its present form. However, if it's drastically changed when it goes to conference committee with the House version, then he -- then he might very well go against it. There's all kinds -- not just the legislation that's there.

But look, you've got the confirmation of judges coming up that are being appointed to the federal bench. You have the potential somewhere in there of a Supreme Court justice that has to be confirmed by the Senate. You have all these ambassadorships. You have all these sub-Cabinet posts that have yet to be filled.

PRESS: You have energy -- an energy plan coming up where there are going to be proposals to ease regulations in order to facilitate the siting of power plants or even nuclear power plants. You've got legislation to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling, energy, environment, education, and as Hal said, all these judicial nominees. A lot of power with the leadership.

MARTIN: It will require -- it will require the Republicans to be much sharper. It will require them to search for ways -- and I believe that they have the competence and capability to do this. It will mean making sure a few of the Democrats don't go too crazy, because ultimately, remember, even in this tax bill there were conservative Democrats voting for it.

Even though the agenda changes -- and I've said how important it is -- this means every vote is going to require somebody from the other side basically still, and that one, two or three, somebody, the senators are going to be aware of this.

It's going to be some small stuff, just to get to folks at home. Do you realize how many offices have to be changed?

(LAUGHTER)

I mean, I realize that's what I was thinking. Everybody has these big, giant offices. You know, being called "Mr. Chairman" is very cool. It never happened to me, but I would have liked Ms. Chairman, I guess. Now, you get to ranking member, back to that. I always thought that, you know, was kind of an insult. You rank, you.

(LAUGHTER)

No, I mean, I don't mean to laugh at something that's serious, but you know, the human element of this is going to be stunning. I believe that the White House is going to have to totally -- it's done very well so far. It's had a very efficient operation. It's going to have to take that efficiency and multiply it, because now it has to work without having the ability in both houses to have the leadership in line. Very tough.

BATTISTA: Let me...

BRUNO: But I've got to ask a question, Bobbie. Lynn pointed out that the White House has been very, very efficient in the way it's worked with Congress thus far. But you've got to wonder, behind-the- scenes, how could they ever let the relationship with Jeffords deteriorate to this point.

I mean, it isn't just the tax cut (UNINTELLIGIBLE), because he's going to support it. But this has been building for a long time, and they've had since January to do something and to understand that this might happen.

MARTIN: Well...

PRESS: Bobbie, there's been an attitude in the White House of take no prisoners. There's an attitude of basically you're with us -- you know, it's our way or the highway. And I agree with Hal. This did not have to happen. I think you've got to look at Karl Rove and the political leadership in the White House. They could have reached out to this man. They could have been magnanimous -- after all, they are in control -- and shown him a little decency, a little human respect.

MARTIN: Oh, bosh.

PRESS: Oh, no. Yeah, well, look what happened. Bosh! (CROSSTALK)

BATTISTA: Somebody made a strategy mistake, that's for sure.

MARTIN: Either he is doing it for a small -- well, either he's doing it for a small, petty reason -- and surely, Bill, you as a leading Democrat wouldn't want to say that that's why someone would switch parties -- or a president that truly has been more civil and reached out more to both parties is at fault. No. I don't buy that. This is extraordinarily complicated, but now both sides are going to have to move on.

BATTISTA: I've got to take -- I've got to take a quick break here, and then we'll continue.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BATTISTA: We're back and the audience has been absorbing this a little. I'm getting some e-mails from Vermont. Let me do those quickly.

Howard in Manchester City says: "Please don't be fooled that all Vermonters are liberals and Socialists. The Republican Party is alive and well in Vermont. We just got our House of Representatives back. Our situation is that the inflow of population from liberal areas is concentrated in the largest county of the state."

Mark in Burlington says: "Jeffords was elected by Democrats and independents, in the first place. The majority of Vermonters are going to say Jim's got guts. Vermonters are proud today."

Let me go to the audience and David.

DAVID: Yeah, hi. I kind of want to reiterate what the first e- mail said that if you're going to vote for a person, and I guess actually if you're going to vote along party lines, and people are going to switch after you vote, that raises some concerns in whom you can trust. I guess people who are particularly liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats would be the most suspect candidates. So you know, I just -- kind of makes me feel a little uneasy.

BATTISTA: It bothers you in principle.

MARTIN: I think he's right, by the way. You know, I think there is a point he's making there. And again, whichever way it comes, there are really two party-line votes that you make. I've been in a number of different legislative seats. One is redistricting on the state level. You know, usually there's a Democratic map and a Republican map, and unless there's something truly awful happening you're supposed to stick with your party. The other is a leadership vote.

The rest you can -- you ought to be independent. Often you will more often agree with the party position. That's why you belong to that party. But I think that's a point that Senator Jeffords has to face and answer. It is a real one. You were elected as one thing; now you are another.

But as other e-mail participants said, you know, that state knew that he was on an edge and still elected him. But we don't know. He could say, I'll run again.

BATTISTA: Let me take Ralph in Pennsylvania on the phone. Ralph, go ahead.

RALPH: Hi. I have to comment on your female speaker. She's correct when she says that Senator Jeffords actions will result in the Republicans having to be sharper, and particularly in the White House. Jeffords, I think, is a true patriot to put the interests of the country before his own selfish, egotistical interests. And I think it's not a bad thing for checks and balances to come back into play in Washington, D.C.

BATTISTA: Thank you, Ralph.

MARTIN: You know, he did manage to keep a committee chairmanship here. So I agree conscience matters, but it -- he didn't say, "I'm going to start at the bottom of the Democrats and work my way up." And none -- no one expects that of him.

BATTISTA: Let me ask you this, will the Republicans continue to court Jeffords or have they written him off at this point?

PRESS: I think they are still talking to him, but let me tell you somebody else they are talking to: they're talking to Senator Zell Miller from Georgia.

MARTIN: Sure.

PRESS: They are looking at how to get that back to a 50/50 split, and I hope that they might be talking a little bit more to Lincoln Chafee from Rhode Island, not making the same mistake with him they made with Jeffords.

And I'll tell you one thing: they better start talking to John McCain, and the White House had better start reaching out to John McCain. Because he's differed with the president on several issues, he feels he's getting stiffed by the White House, he's getting rough treatment from the White House. He doesn't like it. And he might become an I, too.

BRUNO: I think for the next 24 hours, certainly, we don't know what's going on behind-the-scenes, they'll do everything they can to see if they can talk Jeffords out of this. It may be too late for that.

But Bill is right. Zell Miller I think will be their number one target, although Senator Miller from Georgia has said that he has no intention of changing parties. He said he had no intention at that time of changing parties.

PRESS: Right. BRUNO: We've got a situation now that has changed, so who knows? So, if you lose one, the best way to solve the problem is to go get one.

BATTISTA: And the burning question now left is, will he still be able to perform with the singing senators?

(LAUGHTER)

BRUNO: Wait a minute.

PRESS: John Ashcroft is gone now, he's attorney general.

BRUNO: Hold on a second, Bobbie. You said that jokingly, but there's a serious question there. I mentioned before, why didn't the White House do something to head this off? Why didn't one of the other singing senators by the name of Trent Lott and the question I have -- and I don't know the answer to it -- is, how much of this is precipitated by Jeffords' relationship with the Senate leadership?

BATTISTA: All right.

PRESS: We will replace them, Bobbie, with the singing commentators. You've got three here, we just need a fourth.

MARTIN: I have a two-note range and they are both flat. It's not me.

BRUNO: I will play guitar.

(LAUGHTER)

BATTISTA: Bill Press and Lynn Martin, thanks for joining us. Always a pleasure.

By the way, don't forget to watch "CROSSFIRE" tonight for more on the Jeffords defection.

In a moment, if you think Bill Press is smiling, what do you think Al Gore is doing? We'll talk with Al Gore's front man during the election right after the news break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BATTISTA: Welcome back. You know what? I'm going to do some audience people. Steve, go ahead.

STEVE: Yes, I want to say, someone said they were uneasy about this switching parties thing. And I actually think it's a positive step, because it sort of shakes things up and makes it so that people have to pay a little more attention to someone's positions on issues as a candidate, rather than if they just have a D or an R by their name.

BATTISTA: Let me take a phone call from Homer in Vermont. Homer, go ahead. CALLER: I have been an independent and voted for 30 years, and I think Jim Jeffords is one of the most honorable Republicans that we have ever had in office. And George Bush ran, saying he was a uniter, and he has done nothing but divide since he has been in office.

So I applaud what Jim Jeffords is doing, no matter what his decision is. Democrat or independent, I will back him all the way.

BATTISTA: All right, Homer, thanks so much.

Hal Bruno is still with us. Also joining us now is Doug Hattaway, who is a Democratic -- we call you front man? -- or -- strategist. Head of your own communications company. If he looks familiar, by the way, that's because he was a spokesman for Al Gore's presidential campaign. He joins us from Washington today.

Also with us is Dick Williams in Atlanta. He's a syndicated columnist, and host of the "Georgia Gang" on public television. Dick, always good to see you.

DICK WILLIAMS, "GEORGIA GANG": Good to see you, Bobbie.

BATTISTA: First of all, Doug, let me ask you what your take is here on why the senator has decided to make the jump, and the impact it will have.

DOUG HATTAWAY, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, he is known as a real man of principle. I think people in Vermont certainly respect his independence. Vermont doesn't require that people register by party. I don't see it as a very partisan state anyway. I think plenty of Democrats and independents have voted for him when he ran as a Republican.

I think people will turn out to vote for him again. And that this move will be seen as a stand-up principle. Clearly, the Republican leadership of the Congress is much more conservative than most voters in Vermont. Senator Jeffords would rightfully feel that he hasn't been well-treated by the White House or the Senate leadership of late.

And that he will stand up for the values of Vermont that he was elected to represent. I think that's more important to him and for the people of Vermont, than whether he has an R or a D or an I after his name.

BATTISTA: Dick, the last time I heard, on local radio here, Zell Miller's remarks were, he was not going to switch parties at this time. He kind of left that door open there.

WILLIAMS: Zell Miller said that. The senator from Georgia said, at this time, leaving the door open for folks like us to speculate. But there is a big difference between Zell Miller and Jim Jeffords. Zell Miller, the Democrat, is a man of principle. Jim Jeffords, the Republican from Vermont, obviously is not.

This is a guy -- contrary to what Doug said, this is a fellow who ran for reelection just last fall, got 65 percent of the vote of the people of Vermont; knew, as Doug pointed out, that the Republican leadership in the Congress is more conservative than he.

And now, sort of childishly, I guess, because he wasn't treated real well at party at a White House, he is switching parties. What does he say to the 65 percent of people in Vermont who voted for him as a Republican and gave him a six-year term? Miller...

BATTISTA: We were waiting for them to call in.

HATTAWAY: The tune was very different a few years ago when Ben Nighthorse Campbell switched parties, and the Republicans said he was a man of great principle for switching to the Republican Party. This is sort of predictable rhetoric here.

WILLIAMS: Doug, Zell Miller has said that if he does switch parties, he'll follow the example of some other politicians, that he would resign and ask for special election and run as a Republican, or wait until 2004 and do the same thing.

But you will not see a Zell Miller switch parties at the beginning of a six-year term, because he doesn't...

BATTISTA: But he does vote Republican on most key issues and more, even, and this is a Republican state. What does he have to lose if he switches?

WILLIAMS: I don't know how it's a Republican state when the governor and both U.S. senators are Democrats.

BATTISTA: Well, it went for Bush all the way.

WILLIAMS: It went for Bush. But it's a 50-50 state.

I think Zell Miller is in an unusual position. I think the national folks overlooked this. He was appointed to succeed a fairly popular Republican senator, who died in office. And Miller is I think astounding everyone, Democrats and Republicans alike in Georgia, by being true to his word.

He is voting the way his predecessor would have, yet he also was appointed by a Democratic governor, well funded by the Democratic National Committee, so he has a fine line to walk.

One other thing: right now, he's probably the second most powerful man in Washington, and Jeffords isn't.

BATTISTA: Exactly. Hal, do you want to jump in on this?

BRUNO: First of all, as reporter and I have covered Senator Jeffords, he is a man of principle. I don't think it's fair to say he is not. I think in a state like Vermont, where he got -- what -- 66 percent of the vote in the last election, a lot of Democrats and a lot of independents voted for him, as they have in the past. So I think -- and I think the Jeffords switch goes far beyond what may or may not have been an incident where he wasn't included in a White House party. Although you've got to admit, it's pretty stupid of the White House not to include him in on a party.

But nevertheless, I don't think it was something that trivial that caused this to happen. I don't think it was just the tax bill that caused it to happen, because he said he's going to support the tax bill in its present form. I think it was a lot of things that have built up since January. And as I said before, I find it difficult to understand why the White House and why the leadership in the Senate -- the Republican leadership -- did not see this coming and did not take steps to try and head it off.

WILLIAMS: Hal, you make a good point, but let's go back to the principle thing. If he knew all these things -- he knew pretty much of the lay of the land back in November when he ran for reelection as a Republican for a six-year term, and he had to know that he was out of step with his party's leadership.

He also knows -- and I don't mean to be cynical about this -- that Vermont has been moving steadily to the left for years. Its one Congressman is a Socialist, though he's technically an independent. I don't see the principle in this move now.

BATTISTA: Dick, forgive me for interrupting you guys, but I've just been informed that Zell Miller has issued a statement. We're trying to get the whole thing down here. But he -- that statement will be no surprise to Dick, I'm sure -- that he is not going to jump parties, and he has no need to be an independent at this time, so he will be remaining as a Democrat. We'll try to get the full statement for the audience as soon as we can.

HATTAWAY: On this issue -- if I could address this issue about Jeffords knowing back during the campaign that the Republican leadership wasn't sort of in the same ideological camp with him. I think you had Bush coming in here saying he was going to change the tone in Washington. I think there was certainly hope on the part of the moderate Republicans in Congress that they could moderate what was going on here, and that's been very difficult. Bush held a very hard line on his tax cut.

And Jeffords did the right thing, based on principle, to try to make it a more sensible, fiscally responsible and fair tax cut. And what does he get out of this White House that claims it wants to change the tone in Washington? You get threats against the dairy compact that were reported, which is very important to his constituents back home, and other hardball tactics like that.

BRUNO: Bobbie, I want to go back to one thing I said at the very beginning -- that lots of people have switched parties in the past. There's nothing unusual about that. But this is the first one that, certainly, I can recall, in which it had this kind of of an impact, where control of a branch of the legislature depended upon this, where the control of the Senate is at stake here.

And switching when you don't have that type of a situation is one thing. Switching in this situation, there, I would have to really question what Senator Jeffords had in mind. If all it was was a personal thing that he wanted to do, fine. But when what you want to do is going to have this kind of an impact on your party, that's going many steps further. And that troubles me.

BATTISTA: I have to take a quick break. A couple e-mails as we do. Kent in California says: "With both parties becoming more extreme in their agendas and pressure tactics, perhaps defections to the independent movement could become common. Americans just went sensible, nonideological solutions to our most critical problems."

We'll be back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BATTISTA: Coming to a party near you, or maybe not, under the circumstances. I just finally received the statement from Georgia Senator Zell Miller, who is a Democrat. And it's been widely rumored that he was being courted to switch parties.

The statement says: "While I am certain that in the future I will often vote with President Bush and the Republicans on many issues, I will not switch to the Republican Party and have no need to proclaim myself as an independent. But a word of warning to my fellow Democrats at this time. What is sorely needed around here is much more getting along and much less getting even. The poisonous partisanship that has pervaded this place on both sides of the aisle must end."

Which is also what Senator Jeffords is saying, is it not?

WILLIAMS: Yeah. And that's the third such statement that Senator Miller has issued, and I think it's the third one in which he's used the word "poisonous." And as I said, he's the second most powerful man in Washington, because Senator Daschle, the apparently new majority leader, is going to have to watch Senator Miller very carefully, make sure he's treated well, make sure he's and invited to all the right parties.

(LAUGHTER)

WILLIAMS: And I think the Republicans want that vote of his. So he's going to be on the best guest list too.

BRUNO: I think that what Senator Miller said about the poisonous atmosphere here is very accurate. And I think that will engender a lot of sympathy all over the country, that peopling are starting to become aware of the bitter partisanship that we've had in these last couple months.

BATTISTA: Nonetheless...

(CROSSTALK)

HATTAWAY: It's not a phenomena of just the last few months. You had the Republicans turn Congress into a veritable attack machine over the past eight years against the Democratic administration. So I think a number of Democrats feel there is a bit of a double standard going on here. Now that the Republicans are in power, they're supposed to play nice and be nonpartisan about everything. It just doesn't work that way.

BATTISTA: Well, and the other thing is, Hal, we all know how Washington works, and as you were saying, the importance of Jeffords' move and the impact of it is so great that I can't imagine the Republicans aren't going to continue to go after someone to come to the other side.

BRUNO: Well, with Senator Miller's statement, what you do now is you rebait the hook, you throw it out there, and you start...

BATTISTA: Who might they throw it towards?

WILLIAMS: Ben Nelson? What do you think?

BATTISTA: John Breaux.

WILLIAMS: Maury Landrieu, the two senators from Louisiana.

BRUNO: John? No, I don't think so. John Breaux has made it quite clear that he would vote with Republicans, but like Senator Miller, he's not going to switch parties. Senator Landrieu, no, I don't so that one. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, he switched once. I don't think he'd switch again.

(LAUGHTER)

HATTAWAY: I think anybody who would switch now in the context of this, it would be seen much more in the context of a power play, and much more political than what Senator Jeffords is doing. He's going to make a statement tomorrow. I think it's going to be a very principled one. Somebody else switching after this is totally inside baseball politics, and that's probably not going to go over as well.

BRUNO: Well, I just don't know who the -- I confess I don't know who the prime target would be at this point.

WILLIAMS: I agree with you, Doug, for once. You're right, it would look like just a political chess match.

BATTISTA: Let me take Melissa on the phone from Hawaii. Aloha.

MELISSA: Aloha to you. My comment is, I feel very strongly about this. Even married couples with the same goal in mind disagree on few issues, but do not choose to leave their marriage. It's called commitment. And I think that Jeffords owes the people of America the responsibility. He's made that commitment. He should stay with the Republican party. If he felt so strongly about it he should have changed prior to his being elected as a Republican.

BATTISTA: You should dance with the one who brung you, as they say. All right, Melissa. Thanks very much. Let me go to Marcia.

MARCIA: This is an opportunity for Bush. All during the campaign he said how he was going to bring people together, bring the Democrats and Republicans and it's outside his first 100 days, but this is going to be one of the defining moments of his presidency, how he handles this and it will determine probably at least somewhat if he's reelected, how he brings people together now that he doesn't have the majority in the Senate.

BATTISTA: Yes, how must he handle this, Hal?

BRUNO: Well, I think for one thing they will have to reduce some of their goals. They can't be quite as ambitious as they've been. I think he's got to do everything he can to get this tax cut through. This has become the symbol of his administration, just like in the first days of the Clinton Administration, health care was the big thing and they failed. And they failed and that put a taint on them that lasted a long time.

He has to concentrate. He has to get this tax cut through as close to the way he wants it as possible. And they're just simply not going to be able to be as ambitious as they were. And as Lynn Martin said earlier the setting of the agenda is no longer going to be in their hands.

BATTISTA: I've got to take another quick break. We'll continue here in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BATTISTA: We have just been informed that Senator Jeffords will be making his announcement tomorrow in Burlington, Vermont at 9:30 a.m. in the morning. He will of course be announcing whether or not he will stay with the Republican Party, switch to the Democratic Party or go independent.

The conjecture is he will go independent. So CNN will carry that for you live. Please join us then. We thank you for joining us, Hal Bruno, Doug Hattaway, Dick Williams. Thank you all for coming in. Appreciate it. And tomorrow on TALKBACK, the editor of a leading gay magazine reveals his lover is a well known pro baseball player who's afraid to come out of the closet. That's got the sports world asking, can pro athletes come out without striking out with their teammates and their fans. Join us tomorrow for that one.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com