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CNN Live Event/Special

Meet the Man Who Predicted the Terrorist Attacks

Aired September 28, 2001 - 22:16   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: The CIA headquarters in Virginia is named for former director and former president, George Herbert Walker Bush. Here's part of what he said at the dedication back in April of '99.

"We've got plenty of enemies, unpredictable leaders, willing to commit crimes against humanity, terrorism, fundamentalists killing in the name of God, these and more."

Well, Mr. Bush was certainly right about that. And there have been other warnings, more dire and detailed and timely. We told you about one of them earlier this week, and now we've met the man who issued it.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KENNETH KATZMAN, MIDDLE EAST ANALYST: There were a lot of warnings, not just mine, about this possible threat.

BROWN (voice-over): He certainly doesn't look the part, not even remotely, but this unassuming bureaucrat may well be official Washington's closest present day parallel to an ancient prophet who could foretell the future.

KATZMAN: It was apparent in my research that there was a continued pattern of plotting, a continued pattern of looking for opportunities to hit the United States, either military forces or civilians.

BROWN: Meet Kenneth Katzman, a former CIA analyst who now works for the congressional research service. He knows a great deal about terrorists, and he knows about the Cassandra myth as well. She, of course, the fortune teller who was doomed to accurately predict the future, only to have no one believe her.

KATZMAN: Nobody I know dismissed this threat. I mean, it's just the matter of a debate about what to do about it.

BROWN: Kenneth Katzman says the analogy falls apart somewhat. He said he's not been the only analyst to warn about the dangers of terrorism, especially from Osama bin Laden, but he certainly is the only one who did this -- issue his annual report to Congress about terrorism on the 10th of September, the day before the attacks in New York and Washington. KATZMAN: In the report, the al Qaeda network, the terrorist activity level is characterized as extremely high. What that was based on is an assessment that they were continuing to plot against the United States and look for ways to attack U.S. interests.

BROWN: As for the attacks themselves, Katzman says there actually is a precedent, an assault that did not work as planned. The key player -- Ramzi Ahmed Yousef, the man at the center of the first Trade Center bombing. Yousef was convicted in a 1995 plot to blow up airliners in Asia.

KATZMAN: That investigation indicated that there was a plot like this abroad, to perhaps not only blow up those airliners but maybe hijack them and slam them into sites -- not necessarily the Trade Center, but maybe sites in Asia or the West Coast. So, there are some indications that this plot or something like it has been cooking for several years.

BROWN: Bin Laden, Katzman believes, has been able to orchestrate this trail of terrorism and destruction because he's been able to do one thing that other Islamic radicals have not, and that is organize. Organize in many, many countries.

KATZMAN: Al Qaeda is a coalition. It's an umbrella. The main core is actually Egyptian Islamist groups, namely the Islamic Jihad and the Islamic Group. Then, there are factions of the Armed Islamic Group of Algeria, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Harakadel (ph) mujahadeen, which is fighting against India in Kashmir, Chechnyan militants who are fighting in Chechnya are affiliated, and groups in the Persian Gulf who are against royal families ruling regimes in the Persian Gulf states as well.

BROWN: Bin Laden's network, Katzman says, began after the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan, leaving many Islamic radicals, in effect, looking for work.

KATZMAN: So many of them fanned out back to their countries of origin and joined up with existing radical Islamic movements in their countries of origin. For example, the Egyptians who volunteered in Afghanistan went back to Egypt and accelerated an ongoing struggle against the government of Hosni Mubarak.

BROWN: Ken Katzman hasn't talked on television about his report until now. He talked to us, he says, to let people know how very difficult it will be to catch Osama bin Laden.

KATZMAN: These networks are very hard to penetrate, because they all know each other. They know each other from the struggle against the Soviets in Afghanistan and associates of that struggle. You can't just sort of send an outsider to parachute in and say, "hello, I'm here," and penetrate this type of network.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Another former CIA veteran wrote a scathing article about the lack of human intelligence in Afghanistan -- human intelligence being a fancy word for spies. It was called "The Counterterrorism Myth: Why Osama bin Laden Has Little to Fear From American Intelligence." It was published in the "Atlantic Monthly," on news stands just weeks before the attack.

And here's another warning. You have seen these pictures of Osama bin Laden many times on CNN from an interview done by Peter Arnett in 1997. Most of the time, an anchor is talking over it, as I am right now. But I'll stop now, so you can listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PETER ARNETT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: What are your future plans?

OSAMA BIN LADEN, SUSPECTED TERRORIST (through translator): You'll see them and hear about them in the media, God willing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: A warning in 1997.

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