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Q&A with Jim Clancy

Should War in Afghanistan Continue During Ramadan?

Aired November 09, 2001 - 15:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
TUMI MAKGABO, CNN ANCHOR: Reports that the opposition Northern Alliance in Afghanistan is making gains against the ruling Taliban.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REAR ADMIRAL JOHN STUFFLEBEEM, PENTAGON SPOKESMAN: There is a lot of dust in the air right now. There are skirmishes happening across these various fronts, if you want to call them as such. And with that dust in the air, it is very hard to tell exactly what's going on.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MAKGABO: The Alliance claims the key strategic town in Afghanistan has been taken. If true, that could be the beginning of a new phase in the military campaign, even as Pakistan's president warns of a possible backlash from the fighting, saying it should pause during the Muslim holy month.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GENERAL PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, PRESIDENT OF PAKISTAN: Continuation of the operation during the month of Ramadan will have its negative fallout in the entire Muslim world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MAKGABO: On this edition of Q&A: The military campaign, the latest developments, and should it be brought to a halt during Ramadan?

MAKGABO: Hello, I am Tumi Makgabo. Jim Clancy is off for the day. Welcome to Q&A.

First, let's get the latest developments in the military campaign in Afghanistan. According to a Pakistan-based paper "The Afghan-Islamic Press", Taliban sources say their troops have withdrawn from Mazar-e- Sharif. However, they are said to be regrouping just outside it. And the opposition Northern Alliance says it now has control of the city.

There is no independent confirmation of any of these developments. Meanwhile, air strikes continue just north of the Afghan capital, Kabul, and in the southern stronghold of Kandahar.

Well, Pakistan's president, Indonesia's president, as well as clerics in Russia have all asked that the military campaign in Afghanistan be halted during the holy month of Ramadan. The Pakistani president says if the bombing continues, the effects will be felt by the entire Muslim world.

Well, to talk with us about that, we're joined at the moment by Louay Safi, who is the Director of Research at the International Institute of Islamic Thought. Thank you very much for being with us.

LOUAY SAFI, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ISLAMIC THOUGHTS: Thank you.

MAKGABO: If I could begin with a question regarding the change or what appears to be a change in strategy or a change in diplomacy for many of these Muslim or Islamic states.

Why are we seeing that and why now?

SAFI: Well, definitely, the coming of Ramadan is an important factor. And the sentiments within the Muslim populations is another factor that many of the leaders of Muslim countries are looking into and considering in their decisions.

MAKGABO: When they are looking into this and considering and trying to make decisions about what they're going to do, how far are they willing to go in applying pressure or putting pressure on the U.S. to, perhaps, if not tone down, completely stop their air strikes?

SAFI: Well, if you listen to President Musharraf, he has been talking about the need to have a short campaign. Since the campaign started, he wished to have it a short one.

And now with the increased tension within Pakistan and the possibility that Ramadan would inflame further the public passion, I think he is now coming stronger throughout his tour in Europe and now in the States. He is going to counsel and he has been counseling that the coalition should stop bombing during Ramadan.

MAKGABO: But why should the coalition, in fact, stop bombing during Ramadan? We've seen in history -- throughout history -- that Muslims have, in fact, fought during Ramadan, including the prophet Mohammad himself. Why should this situation be any different?

SAFI: Well, that's correct. Definitely, Muslims have fought in Ramadan, and there's nothing in the Muslim scripture that would prevent a war to be fought. In other words, the Koran and the prophet himself doesn't prohibit any engagement in war.

But we have to realize that now this war is also fought -- and what is important is the perception of the Muslim populations. And I think we have to remember that to win this war, this is a war against terror and terrorism and the support, the understanding of the Muslim people is very crucial here.

After all, those who fought and committed the act of terrorism do not come from, you know, organizations that are established in Muslim countries. And that's why I think we have -- the United States has to win the war in terms of rallying support -- popular support behind it and reducing the pressure on many of the Muslim leaders who are party or part of the coalition.

MAKGABO: Well, joining our conversation now is Dr. Farookh Hassan. He is a former adviser to the prime minister of Pakistan. Dr. Hassan, thank you very much for being with us.

I'd like to ask you if the United States continues the air strikes in Afghanistan and maintains the status quo, how is this going to change the way in which Islamic states are putting pressure on the U.S., perhaps, to change or even stop their military campaign? We heard the president of Pakistan having said all along that, indeed, this needs to be a short campaign.

DR. FAROOKH HASSAN, ADVISER TO FORMER PAKISTANI PRIME MINISTER: Well, you see that two matters that have to be kept in mind while responding to this question. The first is that you have already said that there have been wars previously during Ramadan, but those wars were between Muslims, like Iran and Iraq. This is a war in which, in fact, a Muslim country is perceived to have been attacked by the Western powers. So there is a fundamental difference here.

Secondly, it is being said -- and I think rightly so -- by President Bush that this is not a war on Islam. Yet if this continues, I don't think you can really dissect the psychology of semantics to an extent to come to a conclusion that this is not so.

Thirdly, which is, I think, the more important point and has weighed with General Musharraf, because he had earlier said that the war has to be fought on its own footing, military aims are different.

Then, I think, he changed his view somewhat after the visit of Secretary Rumsfeld last week when he said the war might continue. But in the last two days during his trip to Europe, he has categorically said that it will look like a war against innocent and old people if it continues.

The reason being that Ramadan is a period when people go to mosques. They are in the mosques all the time. They pray. And, of course, in Saudi Arabia, where there are hundreds of thousands of people congregating for the annual getting together of the people. This will be considered to be an affront to that kind of a spiritual homage, pilgrimage that is, and it will provide a kind of laboratory of expression of views, which I think the governments cannot administratively handle. So both from the scriptural point of view and bureaucratic point of view, I think what General Musharraf has said seems to be, at least, practical sense.

MAKGABO: Well, looking at practical sense, many are asking that the United States stop its campaign during Ramadan. Does that mean that, in fact, any extremists who -- I'm sorry -- Islamic or for that matter, any terrorists are going to stop their activities because it's Ramadan?

HASSAN: Well, I think they are not on trial at the moment. The question here that is being debated is whether the war being continued by the allies is just, is proper, should be continued or not. To question what the terrorists are doing or not is really not in focus here.

And even if an attempt was made, and I think there is some move to do that -- I heard yesterday that even a celebrity from Hollywood and ad experts were being hired to change -- because there is definitely a conviction here that despite the overall immense strength of the media in the West, the small kind of exposure that Al Jazeera gives is having a superior effect as far as, if you will, changing the public opinion and the pictures that are coming out of Afghanistan.

So there is already a propaganda war that is more or less admitted to be going against the West. This will only fan that kind of a hypothesis, and therefore, I think one has to err, if err at all, on the side of caution. And I personally also feel as a specialist in this subject that military aims are different. I don't know, I am not a specialist on military affairs.

But in terms of psychology -- and wars are fought on all kinds of fronts -- this will not be serving any larger and longer standing American interest and Western interest in this region, which actually is a very vast region, overall, it is comprising several countries -- then, I think there would be an adverse negative effect. If I can use General Musharraf's words to express, that this will not go well in the Islamic world.

MAKGABO: Louay Safi, if I could perhaps put the same question to you.

Is this, in fact -- when we are asking the United States and the coalition to change their strategy during the month of Ramadan, are we, in fact, looking at a situation where anybody else is going to be changing their strategy in observance of Ramadan?

SAFI: Well, let me put it this way. Definitely, I think, there is a problem also in terms of how this strategy is presented. And clearly, the objectives have not been made very clear because people in the Middle East hear about a broad network that spans about 60 countries, and that the United States is going to fight a very long war. And then, it's not clear what is next and why civilians are falling in Afghanistan when the targets should be the terrorists and their camps.

So I think here there is also a need to be more clear and to target really military facilities as opposed to towns and cities where innocent civilians will be -- will die as a result.

On the top of that, we know that Afghanistan have been suffering -- even prior to the war -- of famine. And today, you have over two million refugees on the run in Afghanistan. They need food. And the images that many people in the Middle East are seeing are not very helpful for a war on terrorism.

MAKGABO: All right.

Dr. Hassan, perhaps I could put a question to you that we received, in fact, via e-mail. And I'd like to read to you.

General Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan is shouting himself hoarse from the rooftops that bombing in Afghanistan should be halted during Ramadan, the Muslim holy month. But the Americans say that in private meetings with them, he is lukewarm to the demand. Why the doublespeak?

HASSAN: Well, I can only hazard a guess on this because I don't know what the Americans told him and what he told the Americans.

But I can evaluate his public utterances. And the public utterances are like the one I just outlined, that up to almost last Friday, he was saying that the war should be fought and should be targeted. Then, over the weekend when Mr. Rumsfeld went there, he actually came and said that, "Yes, war can not be stopped halfway." And then again, on this visit, I think, he has gone and expressed a view, which I think quite clearly represents the larger view in amongst the Muslim people.

You see the thing is that when you see on the pictures, that one thing is clear, that nobody knows, even in the Pentagon, how many Taliban or the adversary, as they call it, have been actually killed. But the civilians that are being affected, one way or the other, the hospitals being bombed, and so on -- that everyone knows.

There is a discrepancy about the length and breadth of that loss. But one thing is clear that even the Red Cross has said that there have been widespread -- at least six attacks on their barracks in Kabul.

So this is a kind of amalgamating and continuing debris of negative propaganda or negative publicity that is affecting the conduct of war. And it is really not clear now as to what is, in fact, the target because yesterday, I heard General Franks say that Osama bin Laden is not the target. Well, I don't know what the target is if he is not the target.

So if the target is the Afghan people -- well, I don't know. That is not going to go well at all if the bombing continues during the war. And I think this is the right time at least for the world to know actually what, in fact, is the target.

And I personally feel that General Franks's statement yesterday has somewhat confused the issue, because he even went to the extent of saying that he wants more planes and things of that kind. And that shows that the military targets are still to be achieved. So I think in all totality, we have to be prudent and we have to see long-term interest of, particularly, Washington in this area and to see how rehabilitation with the Islamic people, who think they're being injured, has to be rectified.

MAKGABO: Well, Louay Safi, if we could perhaps look at that issue a little bit more closely, that of once again stopping the bombing and, perhaps, looking at a situation where the Taliban is given an opportunity to regroup.

Dr. Hassan mentioned how the Pakistani president has said that, you know, war shouldn't be stopped, in fact, halfway through. Wouldn't that, in fact, be what was happening, that you are stopping halfway through?

And although the U.S. and the Pentagon have said that they have the Taliban on uneven footing at the moment, you know -- taking advantage of that and perhaps, continuing to put pressure on them?

SAFI: Definitely, the situation presents the American leadership with a dilemma, how to deal with this situation. There will be no easy answers. But definitely, one has to weigh the need to have public support to fight terrorism against the possibility that the credibility of the American campaign will be lost within the Muslim population.

And after all, remember that those radical groups can only operate if they have some sympathy within the population. And it's very important that the United States will be seen not only its intent, but to be seen that it is targeting terrorists and not, you know, civilian population and to have very clear objectives that it is fighting those who are using violence against civilians and not combating civilians and not fighting Muslims nations or giving the impression that when the war is over in Afghanistan, then the U.S. armies and the power will would move to another Middle Eastern country.

MAKGABO: Gentlemen, to both of you. We have to leave it there. Thank you very much for joining us.

SAFI: My pleasure.

HASSAN: Thank you.

MAKGABO: And when Q&A continues, a look at the military action in Afghanistan.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: And we must therefore take account as we pursue our campaign and offer sensitivities. But in the end, I think everyone understands that the campaign has to continue, ultimately, until the objectives are secured.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MAKGABO: Welcome back. You're watching Q&A.

And just to recap some of day's developments: Word coming from the Northern Alliance claiming that they have taken the strategic northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif in Afghanistan. Apparently, the Taliban have fled the city, but they're also said to be regrouping just outside of Mazar-e- Sharif.

Once again, that information has not been independently confirmed. But also, the strikes continue just north of the capital Kabul and also on the southern stronghold of Kandahar.

Well, with his analysis of the situation, we're joined now by CNN's military analyst retired General David Grange. General, thank you very much for being with us.

Perhaps, if we can begin with the developments around Mazar-e-Sharif. Although we haven't been able to independently confirm them, if they were to be true, what exactly would this mean for the U.S. efforts there?

RETIRED GENERAL DAVID GRANGE, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, Mazar-e- Sharif is a key objective for the area. You don't have to occupy all of Afghanistan to dominate it. Mazar-e-Sharif is one of the key objectives. It has an airfield. It has lines of communication, roads that link Uzbekistan to Afghanistan, then eventually down to the southeast to Kabul and then right into the Pakistan. So it's a key site for future logistics both for humanitarian assistance and for war supplies.

MAKGABO: Now, looking at the map, which we have -- and I understand, General, that you can't see from where you are -- but nevertheless, looking at where Mazar-e-Sharif is, it is quite far north in the country. Kabul is a little bit further south.

What does this mean for any efforts to try to make any advances on Kabul? It is quite a long distance between the two cities.

GRANGE: Well, I think that Mazar-e-Sharif is one access of attack by the Northern Alliance, as is Kabul is another access of attack. Of course, they're probably synchronized because they have to -- taking down both of these objectives are part of the overall campaign.

But Mazar-e-Sharif, again, allows supplies to come in to Afghanistan to support the Northern Alliance and any international effort much easier than bringing them in by air.

The second: This area ethnically has Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras, which are pretty much anti-Taliban. And the idea there is to win over these people to the Northern Alliance efforts against the hardcore Taliban.

MAKGABO: Now, when the Northern Alliance is claiming to have captured Mazar-e-Sharif, what do they mean by captured?

GRANGE: Well, that's a very good question because you can be inside of the city or part of the city and occupy but not control it. My analysis -- and it may be off a bit -- but I believe that they probably have a foothold in the Mazar-e-Sharif.

They probably haven't cleared the entire city, but then until you control the dominating terrain around Mazar-e-Sharif where Taliban can observe and call in fires on Northern Alliance forces or re-supply or counterattack, you really don't control that key objective. That still probably has to be accomplished.

MAKGABO: Well, as you mentioned and also the Pentagon saying earlier in the day that the situation is indeed very fluid. So I guess we will have to wait for the coming weeks or so to see how developments unfold as far as Mazar-e-Sharif is concerned.

But I'd like to talk also a bit about the halting of any air strikes or bombing during the holy month of Ramadan. That, of course, seems to be increasing calls coming from Muslim states. Is that, in fact, a possibility from the U.S. perspective?

GRANGE: Well, I hope not. I think the international coalition will have to keep up the momentum, keep the pressure on the al Qaeda and the hardcore Taliban that supports al Qaeda.

This fight is not against the peoples of the Afghanistan. It's just about -- against the terrorist's infrastructure of al Qaeda and the Taliban that happens to support and protect that structure. You know, Muslims have fought during Ramadan throughout history.

And I would ask is the Northern Alliance going to stop their attacks on the Taliban during Ramadan? I would say probably not, since this civil war has been going on for a long time. I don't think we should back off at all with the international coalition. I think it should continue.

MAKGABO: U.S. Secretary of State, Donald Rumsfeld (sic), has said that the U.S. will take the holy month of Ramadan into account when continuing their military activities in Afghanistan. When he says they will take it into account, what does he mean? Does he mean that they will think about it and discard it?

GRANGE: Well, I think there will be -- I don't know but my -- again, my best analysis would be that they'll consider the targeting, being very careful of where targets are planned. And I believe there will be a surge in humanitarian assistance during Ramadan, just to provide shelter net for the upcoming winter, because that is a requirement that's right around the corner for the international coalition.

MAKGABO: You mentioned a very key aspect. Just a few moments ago, you asked whether, indeed, the Taliban would stop their attacks on the Northern Alliance or vice versa during the month of Ramadan.

What would it mean, in fact, for the Northern Alliance should, perhaps, the United States ease off a little bit -- not necessarily halt completely -- but ease off on their activities in respect of Ramadan?

GRANGE: Well, I think that the international coalition has to keep the air strike pressure and any other type of support going throughout this period. Otherwise, the Northern Alliance, which is outgunned and outmanned, will not have the capability to take more Taliban objectives.

MAKGABO: Now, you mentioned a little bit earlier and you touched on it slightly. I'd like to take you back to that. The capital, Kabul -- how soon are we likely to see any movement on that city?

GRANGE: Well, Kabul is a little tougher target, I think, than Mazar- e-Sharif. It is a key objective, because it is -- it has political implications. And I think those are dominated, though it's not a true seat of government, the perception that it is a seat of government has a lot of psychological impact on that country, the tribes of that country, and the countries that border Afghanistan.

But it's going to be a little bit tougher. There's a lot more Taliban sympathizers in that area than up in Mazar-e-Sharif. And it's closer to Pakistan which makes it, I think, even a little bit more sensitive. The terrain is tough and open around Kabul, which makes it a harder objective to take down. And it's a much bigger city to clear with soldiers within the city itself.

MAKGABO: And finally, with the winter fast approaching, what sort of changes in strategy and what exactly will that mean in their continued efforts there?

GRANGE: Well, I don't think that with reference to strategy -- and again, we don't have the international plan -- but we shouldn't get hung up on the time line. You know, some people say this isn't moving fast enough. You know, we want a quick war. What's a quick war? I don't know what that means. Wars take as long as they are required to win. And my belief is that we'll have some limited objectives with the Northern Alliance prior to winter. But I don't think that all of these Taliban forces that support al Qaeda will be destroyed by that time. And I think there will be a kind of holdup through the winter months, followed by a spring offensive.

MAKGABO: General, thank you very much for your analysis and insights. Thanks.

GRANGE: Thank you.

MAKGABO: And I'd like to thank our other guests as well for joining us.

And a reminder, Q&A continues now online. THE NEWS is up next on CNN.

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