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CNN Sunday Morning

Reported Northern Alliance Gains Lower Taliban Morale

Aired November 11, 2001 - 08:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: First, Mazar-e Sharif. This morning we have word Northern Alliance troops have captured more territory in Afghanistan from the Taliban. Joining us this morning is CNN military analyst, retired Air Force General Donald Shepperd.

Thank you, sir, for being with us this morning.

MAJ. GEN. DON SHEPPERD (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Good morning, Martin.

SAVIDGE: There appear to be some significant gains on the part of the Northern Alliance. How does this all play? And it appears they have momentum on their side, at least for the moment.

SHEPPERD: These are early successes, and they do appear to have momentum, but there are "many miles to go before we sleep," as the saying goes. These gains have to be consolidated. They're a high ground overlooking many of the cities that they are reportedly capturing, and the Taliban occupy much of that high ground. So it's going to take a while to consolidate these gains.

Also, we can expect counterattacks from time to time, and perhaps some cities and areas going back and forth. But this looks very encouraging so far for the Northern Alliance and opposition forces.

SAVIDGE: Militarily, could there be a concern that they're moving too fast?

SHEPPERD: I don't think so. I think they have the message very clear from the president on down that we wish them well and we hope that they make advances toward Kabul, but not into Kabul. I don't think that the cautions are going unheard. And further, taking Kabul itself with city-to-city fighting, block-to-block fighting, would be very difficult and costly in the terms of lives.

So I suspect they will be very cautious in a move into the city, but certainly not around the city where they keep -- they seem to be making great progress.

SAVIDGE: Among these successes being listed this morning, Bamiyan and Pul-e-Khumri. Tell us about the significance of these particular victories.

SHEPPERD: Well, these are on the road to Kabul, if you will, from Mazar-e Sharif. The key cities along those roads are Samangan, Baghlan, Pul-e-Khumri. And then south of Pul-e-Khumri, the Salang Pass. All of that leads to the Shomali Plains, where at the foot of the Panjshir Valley just north of Kabul.

Also in that area north of Kabul -- 20 miles or so north of the capital -- is Bagram Air Base. Now, again, the Taliban hold the high ground around that Bagram Air Base, which means they can shell the air base. But it appears that the Northern Alliance and the opposition forces are securing the cities along the roads from Mazar-e Sharif to Kabul, and eventually they will be taking the high ground. And, again, this is all very, very encouraging for the Northern Alliance.

SAVIDGE: Taliban has said that this is a strategic withdrawal on their part. Is that what you see, or is it more a rout?

SHEPPERD: I think rout is too strong a word right now. Clearly, they have had to withdraw under the force of the United States and coalition air attacks, which have certainly supported the Northern Alliance and will continue to do so. And the United States can really ratchet-up those air strikes.

So it is definitely a retreat under military pressure. But whether or not they will regroup, reform and re-attack remains to be seen. On the other hand, any time they do that, they provide very lucrative targets for air power.

SAVIDGE: So if Kabul remains off limits, at least politically for the Northern Alliance, where do they go next?

SHEPPERD: Well, you know there have been repeated strikes in the area of Kandahar, which is the stronghold of the Taliban. I suspect, again, you will see consolidation of the gains in the northeastern part of the country, and there are many other areas to go there to consolidate those gains as well. Increasing the Northern Alliance hold on the country from the original, around 10 percent, to as much as maybe 40 percent.

And then I think you can expect future strikes in the area of Kandahar. How they do it remains to be seen, that's General Franks' business. We'll report on it when it happens.

SAVIDGE: Reports from our people out in the field on the front lines reporting that the Taliban morale very low. Obviously, that's good for the Northern Alliance.

SHEPPERD: It is good for the Northern Alliance. Coming under air attack, and coming under ground attack at the same time is very dispiriting for any force, especially when you're losing the territory at the same time.

And the other message that's loud and clear is, the United States -- this coalition is not going to stop. Things are going to look grimmer and grimmer for the Taliban, even though there may be some back-and-forth. But the outcome of this battle is not a doubt. The Taliban are going to go, not if, but when. SAVIDGE: The morale-busting effect of the air force was very evident during the Gulf War. Thank you, General -- General Don Shepperd -- for joining us this morning. I'm sure we'll be talking again soon.

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