Return to Transcripts main page
Lou Dobbs Moneyline
Presidents Bush and Putin Continue Talks; Jalalabad Reportedly Taken Over by Opposition Forces; Aviation Security Nears Approval
Aired November 16, 2001 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANNOUNCER: This is LOU DOBBS MONEYLINE for Thursday, November 15.
Here now, Lou Dobbs.
LOU DOBBS, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening.
The Taliban collapse continues tonight in Afghanistan. And relations between the United States and Russia continue to improve. Northern troops fighting hard to drive out the Taliban. We'll have a live report for you from Kabul and we'll be joined by CNN military analyst General David Grange.
Then, President Bush winds up three days of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. We'll be going live to Crawford, Texas for the latest on the new improving relationship between the United States and Russia.
It has been two months since the September 11 attacks. Today, Congress comes to terms on airline security. We'll have details of the compromised plan to make airports and flying safer for Americans.
On Wall Street today, the Dow Jones Industrials moved higher. The Nasdaq slipped two points. The S&P 500 rose one.
Also tonight, we'll be joined by Jonathan Tisch on the damage the war has done to the travel business in this country, and what's could be done to revive it.
A United States Navy plane has crashed in Washington state. The plane, an EA-6B Prowler, from Whitney Island Naval Air Station. The radar-jamming plane crashed in rural Washington shortly after sending out a distress signal. The Coast Guard says there were three people on board. Their condition is not known.
The number of places Osama bin Laden can hide in Afghanistan is shrinking dramatically. Taliban fighters are now confined to just three areas of Afghanistan, Kunduz, Kandahar provinces and the city of Baghlan. The Northern Alliance has now surrounded thousands of Osama bin Laden's troops in Kunduz. Those solders have been trying to escape, but they are cut off and they refuse to surrender.
U.S. warplanes have been bombing Taliban frontline positions in that area. The bombing is being carried out principally by B-52 bombers and F-14s. The Pentagon says a pair of U.S. strikes last week killed al Qaeda and Taliban leadership. Osama bin Laden not among the dead. In fact, Northern Alliance sources tonight say bin Laden and his al Qaeda followers have been moving from cave to cave in the southern part of Afghanistan.
And Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld says the U.S. will find bin Laden, no matter where he runs. Despite his losses, Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar says everything is going according to plan in Afghanistan. Omar insists that the Taliban pullback is part of a larger strategy. That strategy, he terms, "the destruction of America."
After three months in captivity, eight foreign aid workers are in Pakistan tonight safely. The workers freed from their captors last night. They had been detained by the Taliban for preaching Christianity.
There are still conflicting reports tonight that the city of Jalalabad is under control of the Northern Alliance. Christiane Amanpour is in Kabul and has the latest for us -- Christiane.
CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, quite a few things to point out to you today, as the United States continues now to say that it's pressing its advantage in trying to hunt down members of al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden himself.
Of course, there are many people who have come to these newly freed towns and looking through various houses that we have been told used to belong to members of so called the Arab legion -- the Arab foreign legion -- that joined up with the Taliban.
Journalists have been going through some of these houses in what amounts to a fairly upscale neighborhood of Kabul. And in those houses, they have found several documents and other evidence that suggests that at least the people who were there were interested in trying to acquire methods of destruction, methods of trying to wreak whatever kind of havoc they could.
We're going to show you just a couple of these textbooks and exercise books that have been written into. This one, we're told by the person who translated it, shows a crude diagram of how to build a bomb. This one is another printed text in Arabic in which two words that we know are underlined. One of those words is anthrax, another word is mustard gas.
Has to be said, at this point, we do not know whether this is material that's taken from the public domain and written out meticulously about by people who were there. But all we can tell you is that there have been a lot of these documents found by journalists. Also, instructions, for instance, on how the turn a wristwatch into a timing device. There were chemicals. There was ammunition and grenades found in the building that CNN went to. There was what amounts to sort of a handbook for terrorists, if you like, a terrorist manual, A notebook, which I just showed you, with diagrams -- how the construct a bomb. And then, in this printed text about anthrax and mustard gas, instructions on -- basically, they're saying it has to be delivered through ventilation systems. And then, most chilling of all, a few journalists including CNN found one text that suggested that atomic terror would be a matter of time and would be something that happened in the future.
Again, this comes with heavy disclaimers, because at this moment, we are just looking through it, looking at the translations, looking at the evidence that has been found by journalists in this neighborhood of Kabul.
At the same time, the Northern Alliance and other anti-Taliban forces are pressing their advantages around the country and now hold most of the country, with the Taliban confined to just a few places. We're not entirely sure who is in charge of Jalalabad, the anti- Taliban Pashtun forces. But certainly, the Northern Alliance now claiming that Jalalabad has fallen and the Taliban are no longer in control there -- Lou.
DOBBS: Christiane, do we have any suggestion or evidence that would controvert the claim of the Northern Alliance on as to who controls, exactly whom is in control of Jalalabad tonight?
AMANPOUR: No, what they are saying is that it has fallen. And various reports are suggesting that it has fallen to the anti-Taliban Pashtun leaders in that region.
And also, the Northern Alliance saying that they have been in touch with those anti-Taliban and are essentially coordinating strategy.
DOBBS: OK, that is definitely a positive. In the situation in Kabul today, a day after it was taken over, the Taliban pressed from Kabul. What is the situation their tonight?
AMANPOUR: Well, Kabul has been very calm. This is a city where people were initially and originally afraid of what might happen if the Northern Alliance came through. But they, of course, were very sensitive to that and they have established calm and control. There's no sense that there is armed patrols in the streets, although there is presence to establish security. But for the most part, people are happy, relieved and just hoping for a political situation now to take place.
DOBBS: OK, Christiane Amanpour from Kabul tonight -- thank you very much, Christiane.
Well, there's is no doubt that President Bush and Russian President Putin are forming a very special relationship. Those two countries of course, the United States and Russia, working together in the fight against terrorism. The two presidents holding a surprisingly frank, open and warm press conference today at a Texas high school.
Senior White House correspondent John King has the report -- John.
JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Lou, a remarkable day, if you grade these summits by atmospherics. The two leaders, obviously, get along just fine. A great sense of humor demonstrated by both men today as they fielded questions from students at Crawford High School. Both presidents clearly having a good time.
But you would have to grade this summit inconclusive if the issue is the substance. The major difference coming in -- still the major difference -- as President Putin left the Bush ranch in Crawford, Texas, the United States wants to set aside the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty so that it can go ahead with aggressive testing of a missile defense program. President Putin says he still has profound reservations about that -- the negotiations to continue. One sign though that U.S. officials takes as proof of progress in this relationship: a few months back, President Putin drew the line, said that was a defining issue in U.S.-Russia relations. Today, he said he trusted President Bush and that he was very willing to continue the discussions.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VLADIMIR PUTIN, PRESIDENT, RUSSIA (through translator): And given the nature of the relationship between the United States and Russia, what one can rest assured that whatever final solution is found, it will not threaten or put to threat the interests of both our countries and of the world. And we shall continue our discussions.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Whatever their differences on missile defense, these two leaders standing shoulder to shoulder, hand in hand when it comes to the war in Afghanistan. In their summit talks today, they discussed trying to intensify the diplomatic efforts, to build that broad-based coalition to replace the Taliban in Afghanistan.
They talked about speeding up the shipment and expanding the shipment of humanitarian supplies, now so much of the country no longer in the Taliban control. They talked of a multi-national force, from predominantly Muslim nations, like Indonesia, Bangladesh and Turkey, to go in and protect those aid shipments. And President Bush also said that the military campaign would continue even if the Taliban falls, making clear the goal in Afghanistan is Osama bin Laden and that the campaign might go even after that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It's also important that we stay the course and be strong, because the stronger we are, as a coalition, the stronger we are in achieving our objective. It is less likely somebody else is going to try the harbor a terrorist. Our objective is not just al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Our objective is to root out terrorism, wherever it may hide, wherever it may exist, so the world can be more free and that's a common objective of the President and mine.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KING: Now, Mr. Bush has accepted an invitation to visit Russia. No date set yet. The target is early next year. By then, all this goodwill and good humor might be put to the test. The administration -- weeks, maybe a month away, from decisions on missile defense testing that would run afoul of the ABM Treaty. If that happens, the big question will be: How will Russia and Mr. Putin react -- Lou.
DOBBS: John, thank you very much. John King reporting from Crawford, Texas above and beyond the line of duty in the rain and what appears at least, John, to me to be lightning overhead. Thank you very much.
KING: A little bit of lightning.
DOBBS: Get inside and get warm. Thank you very much, John.
As Northern Alliance's forces are plowing through key regions in Afghanistan, where is Osama bin Laden hiding?
Joining us now, CNN military analyst General David Grange.
General, let me start by asking what do you think is going to be required here to find Osama bin Laden?
RETIRED GENERAL DAVID GRANGE, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, Lou, I think we need to keep the pressure on. The international coalition has to not back off, even though the civil war between the anti- Taliban and the Taliban has come to some sort of conclusion anyway, at least it appears that way. The pressure needs to be kept on al Qaeda, bin Laden and the hard-core Taliban of Omar.
And that means continued air strikes of targets of opportunity, that means continuing to destroy or jam communications, to keep the supplies out. Right now, everything is cut off to a large extent from al Qaeda, unlike the support that the Mujahadeen received during their fight with the Soviets from several countries and a safe haven in Pakistan.
Al Qaeda has a hard time right now. It's very isolated. And so that makes a big difference, and then concentrating on searching more to find areas to find the terrorist network.
DOBBS: Does that suggest we're going to put in more special forces, special operations forces to join in the hunt?
GRANGE: Well, I believe that the special forces from several nations would be key to accomplish in this objective, which is our primary objective.
DOBBS: Now, what -- I'm sorry, General, what about the reports that we're getting from some quarters, and none of them obviously confirmed, that a number of the Taliban armed and still in full support of the Taliban effort and the al Qaeda are crossing into Pakistan. Can anything be done about that? GRANGE: Yes, some of the retreating Taliban that reports have said have gone south. It's really kind of open desert down there where I would think it would be easy pickings.
I think most of them are moving back into Pakistan in that area, but also up into the mountains and there's some hardcore pockets of resistance. I think most of these may be foreign mercenary-type fighters from the Middle East, or Chechnya, as an example. And they will fight to the death. I don't think there's any doubt about that. I think up at Konduz that's happening right now.
So that fight is still there. That's a tough fight. I think most of the fights with the Northern Alliance, to date, have not been that difficult, though a lot of it is because of the great combined airpower with the ground maneuver forces.
DOBBS: It appears, General, that as you mentioned in Konduz, that there is a substantial, perhaps, the largest engagement of this conflict to date on the ground taking place between the Taliban and the Northern Alliance principally. Where are the rest of these forces that we were told about early on? 40-50,000 troops that we were told that, for example, their stand would probably be in the south. It turns out their stand is in the north. This is taking some unexpected turns, is it not?
GRANGE: Well, it was -- the 40-50,000, I think, was the Taliban count in total. And I think most of those forces that were -- a lot of them were on the fence line and they turned. And they are now anti-Taliban -- maybe not Northern Alliance -- but they're anti- Taliban forces.
But the fight in the south, probably north of Kandahar up in the mountains, the tough fight I don't think has happened yet. It's to be seen. And that's like the 55th brigade I believe you are referring to. Those troops -- that may be a little tougher.
DOBBS: Tougher in part because there are reports that they are moving into the caves and the tunnels and the mountains and the hills in the south that we have all heard so much about. What is it going to take to get them out of those bunkers and dug-in positions?
GRANGE: They're going to have to be killed, for one, as the final result because they're not going to change sides like a lot of the Pashtun former Taliban forces have. These are -- a lot of them are foreigners. They have no choice because they are going to die if they surrender. So, they are going to have to -- they are going to fight to the death. There's no doubt about it.
And it's going to take continued air strikes. It's going to take some ground units, whether they be anti-Taliban or international coalition to eventually weed them out. Now, if we're going to send soldiers in to do that, we want to make sure we don't fight their war and we fight it the way we want to fight it on our terms and make sure that that trust and confidence between the soldiers we send in and the chain of command is there. They will have the willingness, obviously, to go after these hardcore fighters and will do very well at it. But again, we want -- the soldiers need to be ensured that we have good intelligence, good support to go into those kind of areas to get these guys out.
DOBBS: And as you point out, lessons learned not to fight someone else's battle.
GRANGE: Correct.
General David Grange, as always, thank you.
GRANGE: Thank you, Lou.
DOBBS: Still ahead here, more on the latest developments in the investigation into the crash of American Airlines Flight 587. Wake turbulence, loss of its vertical -- its horizontal stabilizer, perhaps both. We'll have the latest for you.
We'll also tell you what Congress is doing tonight to make flying safer. We may actually see an airline security bill by this weekend.
And, what is corporate America doing about security? We'll tell you why a lack of standards is hurting efforts to keep companies, businesses and their employees safe.
All of that and more straight ahead. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: This now, the latest on the investigation into the crash of American Airlines Flight 587. Investigators have gathered new information from Flight 587's data recorder. That data shows the plane pitched to the left just seconds before it crashed. That pitch followed two encounters of wake turbulence. That turbulence, apparently from an aircraft that took off less than two minutes earlier, and it could have snapped the horizontal stabilizer from the jetliner.
As a precaution, the FAA is expected to call for the inspection of all Airbus A300 aircraft, with special attention to the tail section. There are 90 such jetliners in service in this country. American, FedEx and UPS fly the European-built aircraft.
United Airlines is arming its pilots with stun guns. The taser weapons will be installed on every plane in United's fleet. Those stun guns will be used to protect the cockpit crew. Two United Airlines jetliners were hijacked and crashed in the September 11 terrorist attacks against the United States.
More than two months after those attacks against America, an airline security bill compromise has been reached.
Kate Snow has the latest for us from Capitol Hill -- Kate.
KATE SNOW, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, the House and the Senate expected to vote tomorrow, probably tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon, on this airline security bill, they have reached a compromise that seems to be satisfying the leaders of both chambers. And Senator Trent Lott predicting, he thinks that it will pass easily in both chambers of Congress.
There was already some common ground on this bill, but what you're seeing there on the screen is where the compromises have been made. The compromise coming on the issue of security screening. The bill would put federal employees in charge of airport security screening at almost all airports. But at five airports in the country, test programs would be run using private security companies that would be meant to test the effectiveness of private security companies. After three years of almost all airports having federal employees, airports would be able to opt out and say, "No, we don't want the federal employees anymore. We want to turn to private companies or perhaps to local law enforcement."
Now to pay for this grand transition and this new system would be a passenger fee on every airplane ticket. That fee would be $2.50 per leg, or a maximum of $5 per one-way trip.
And we mentioned there was also some common ground. The bill will also include reinforced cockpit doors, a call for air marshals and a call that baggage that's checked should be screened. Within 60 days, they would call on airports to start using baggage screening equipment that they already have on hand that isn't being used right now. And then by next year, in December, every checked bag would have to be automatically screened.
Transportation Secretary Norm Mineta embracing this bill, saying it will be effective and saying they just need to pay attention to the transition to this new system and make sure it's not disruptive to air travel.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NORMAN MINETA, TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY: First of all, that whole issue of the mass disruption is something that is going to be paramount in terms of our responsibility to make sure that there is not that kind of change, that what we would like to see is a seamless change during this transition period.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SNOW: House Aviation, Transportation Committee chairman was speaking to me a short time ago, explaining that the transition will take some time, but immediately there will be new federal standards in place, meaning that if any companies that right now are operating have non-U.S. citizens or anyone with criminal backgrounds working for them, they may have to look for alternative arrangements, Lou, because very quickly, he says we would see a change at the nation's airports, phasing in new federal standards and new federal employees over a period of months -- Lou.
DOBBS: Well, Kate, obviously, this is very good news for air travelers throughout the country. But, some serious issues arise as a result. There are contracts between airports and private security firms. What will happen to those and how soon?
SNOW: And I asked Mr. Mica, John Mica, who's the Aviation Subcommittee chairman about that point, there are existing contracts out there.
And he said well, they'll let those contracts run their course. They're not going to immediately get rid of these private companies. But what they're trying to do is an effective transition. Those private employees that meet the new federal standards may be able to stay on and simply become federal employees. If they're not meeting the standards though, they will be replaced -- Lou.
DOBBS: Kate, thank you very much.
You call this a compromise. It looks like that this move decidedly more toward the Democratic version than the Republican, however.
SNOW: Democrats will tell you that. In fact, they have been very vocal, saying that this is more of a victory for them and a token gesture towards privatization, as one senior Democratic aide put it.
But Republicans say that a lot of what they wanted is in here too. It gives flexibility to the airports to be able, at some point in the future, to turn back to private companies if they think that's the better option.
DOBBS: Terrific. Well, again, Democrat or Republican, it sounds like the Democrats have more of their positions in this. Kate, thank you very much for bringing us up to date. Kate Snow tonight from Capitol Hill.
Well, because of the terrorist attacks, security is foremost in the minds of the traveling public as well as most corporate leaders. But the challenge of keeping employees and corporate property safe is often made far more difficult because there are few or no standards for private security companies.
Tim O'Brien takes a look now at what is really corporate insecurity.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
TIM O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The September 11 terrorism has been horrific for New York and the country, but it has been a boon for the risk management and security industry.
RICH MAURER, AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR INDUSTRY SECURITY: I hate to say that, but it has been good for the industry. But it's been good for the awareness of the country.
O'BRIEN: Pete Lambert's company, Blackhawk Security, was doing $7 million in business before September 11. It's up to $10 million now. And Lambert says he's now turning down jobs because he doesn't have enough security guards to fill them, even though the requirements are minimal. PETE LAMBERT, BLACKHAWK SECURITY: In the District of Columbia and in Maryland, to be an unarmed security guard requires zero training. An armed guard in Maryland only requires eight hours of training.
O'BRIEN: Is that scary?
LAMBERT: It's very scary. You know, you're putting guns on people out there that don't have a clue.
O'BRIEN: Nationwide, 10 states have no regulation of the security industry at all. Take that, add long hours and low wages, and it should not be surprising that some security guards pose risks of their own.
RICK HERNANDEZ, INTER-CON SECURITY SYSTEMS: A real issue within the industry is the background screening of personnel, and we've heard a lot about that in the news. And I think it kind of underscores what I'd refer to as the deplorable kind of services that have been provided from different companies.
O'BRIEN: The FBI will run background checks on security guard applicants, but only if required by state law. Most states do not require FBI background checks. And stationing guards alone won't do it.
HERNANDEZ: I think just kind of willy-nilly throwing guards at the front gate or putting people in the lobby is not a good approach.
O'BRIEN: Security professionals say we'll see more high-tech access controls and more emphasis on incorporating security in building design.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(on camera): But all that won't guarantee real security either. Industry leaders acknowledge that while business is booming, it isn't necessarily getting better. With regulation ranging from little to none, it's buyer beware -- Lou.
DOBBS: Tim, thank you very much. Tim O'Brien from Washington.
Coming up next here, we'll update you on the war in Afghanistan, including the latest on the fighting in Konduz and Kandahar.
Congress has promised rapid aid to the families of the victims of September 11, but it has yet to deliver. We'll tell you what's the problems are and what's being done to fix them.
And another industry looking for help from the government. A look at a possible stimulus package for the hotel industry, next.
ANNOUNCER: Next, Lou talks with Jonathan Tisch, chairman and CEO of Loews Hotels.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) DOBBS: These are the latest developments in the war against terrorism in Afghanistan: Anti-Taliban forces continue tonight to chase the terrorists from Afghanistan. Battles are raging in Kandahar, Konduz and Baghlan.
As the Taliban loses control of most of Afghanistan, Osama bin Laden is running out of places to hide. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says that no matter where bin Laden runs, the United States will find him.
And British Prime Minister Tony Blair is sending Elite Royal Marines into Afghanistan. Those troops will inspect a Kabul airport for use in, amongst other things, a humanitarian relief operation.
World leaders will meet next week to discuss a post-Taliban Afghanistan and the task of rebuilding it. The meeting arranged by the United States and Japan. Diplomats were caught off guard by the rapid progress of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.
The government today clamped down on three companies for exploiting the public's fear of bioterrorism. The Securities and Exchange Commission ordered three publicly traded firms to immediately stop making false anti-terrorism claims. The SEC says these companies, mainly penny stocks by the way, claimed to have developed systems to protect the public from bioterrorism. But in each case, the SEC discovered no such systems had been developed, patented, or even tested. One company, RTek Technologies in New Jersey, touted a product they admitted they had no plans to even make.
Despite terrorist threats and the subsequent slump in the travel industry, the hotel business just posted its best week since September 11. In a report released today by Smith Travel Research, revenue per available room fell nearly 14 percent compared to a year ago. But that's a significant rebound from the nearly 19 percent decline the previous week. Things seem to be getting better.
Analysts said the latest numbers are encouraging, but it's going to be a long, difficult road to recovery. Some hotel groups like Loews have been meeting with lawmakers in recent weeks to hammer out plans for a stimulus package for the industry. The companies chairman and COO, Jonathan Tisch, favors tax breaks to cash handouts.
Jonathan Tisch joins us tonight. Jonathan, good to have you here.
JONATHAN TISCH, CHMN., CEO, LOEWS HOTELS: Thanks, Lou.
DOBBS: How bad is it?
TISCH: Things are bad. They were worse. They are getting a bit better. Right after the September 11 attacks, some hotels were running single digit occupancies. Every segment of the travel and tourism industry has been affected. Travel agents, airlines, cruiselines, credit card companies. When you put it all together, we're looking at losses of about $250 a million a day. About a million people...
DOBBS: Per day?
TISCH: Per day, when you put together all the segments, about a million people have been laid off in travel and tourism. That's our estimate. It could get worse. The numbers show that if there's another 10 percent decline in demand, another million people will lose their jobs in travel and tourism.
DOBBS: What can be done?
TISCH: We are looking to work with Congress on a variety of issues. We think that there are three fears out there. Clearly, there's the fear safety and security. You discussed that in the previous segment. Hopefully the government is dealing with that.
There's the fear of being stranded. People are very worried that, God forbid, there's another incident, they will be away from their homes. And then there's the fear of recession. People are concerned that they're going to go away on a trip, that they're going to travel with their family, they're going to come back and not have a job.
We, as an industry, have to stimulate travel right now. And when you look at some of the things that are being talked about in the stimulus package, they're all well and good, but accelerated depreciation is not going to help the housekeeper who's about to lose their job in Las Vegas.
DOBBS: What do you want for the industry?
TISCH: We're looking at stimulus in terms of some tax credits. Let's give people a $500 per person, $1,000 per couple tax credit for buying a ticket between now and the end of the year. Go more than 100 miles from your home and go on vacation. Get a credit for that. Get people out of their homes traveling again.
DOBBS: And get business travelers?
TISCH: Business travelers, we're looking at. Now that would just be for personal.
DOBBS: No, I understand, and for business travel?
TISCH: And for business travelers. Let's reintroduce 100 percent deduction on business meals and entertainment. Let's get people who aren't necessarily traveling back into the restaurants. Let's create jobs and bring the people back who have been laid off.
DOBBS: Well, you're making a lot of people happy right now. What's that going to cost the government?
TISCH: We figure, and we look to Harry Reed, the number Democrat in the Senate, as you know, provided tremendous leadership on these issues. We're looking at maybe about a $3, $4 billion package that would help the travel and tourism industry. DOBBS: Of all the industries impacted, you mentioned the rental cars companies. Mike Egan has to take his company Alamo and National into bankruptcy Monday. Where does it stop?
TISCH: Well, we don't know where it stops. The thing about the travel and tourism industry, it's not just about corporate America. We're also talking about the mom and pops who operate small restaurants, who operate shops outside of theme parks. They're hurting. The million people that we have laid off are hurting.
And when you think about our employees, there is no industry that there at the forefront of transitioning individuals from welfare to work. These are people who are struggling right now, who have to pay the rent, who have to put some food on the table for the kids. And we need to help our employees who were laid off also.
DOBBS: What are the prospects for getting that help, in your best judgment?
TISCH: My sense is that we will get something out of the Senate. There's some real leadership. They understand what this industry means to this country. And they understand that when someone travels, then they're staying in a hotel. They're eating in a restaurant. They're shopping. They're going to a show.
DOBBS: Jonathan Tisch, thanks for being here.
TISCH: Thanks, Lou.
DOBBS: Appreciate it.
We've been reporting form some time about the September 11 charities and the controversy over how quickly or really how slowly they've been providing aid to the families of victims. Soon the federal government will be facing some of the same criticism because it has promised aid to those families, but it has yet to work out delivery.
Peter Viles reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What's at issue here is that a special fund was established for these families.
PETER VILES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Last week, it was Congress putting the heat on the Red Cross to help the families of September 11 victims. But soon, the heat will be on the federal government itself to keep a very ambitious and potentially expensive promise to those families.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That's 1450 a bill...
VILES: When it bailed out the airlines, Congress also established a victims compensation fund, federal money to compensate the victims families for economic losses, pain and suffering. The ambitious part is that Congress says the families will get the money within 120 days of applying for it. By applying, the families waive the right to sue the airlines.
But in its hurry, Congress gave few details about the fund, leaving the Justice Department 90 days to write regulations that will become crucial to thousands of families. The biggest question, how much money will the government give the families? Early guesses run as high as $10 billion.
BOB CLIFFORD, AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION: Until we know the detail of these regulations, it is rank speculation to say $1 million, $11 billion or $20 billion, but my expectation is the number will ultimately be a lot lower than some of the vast speculative amounts.
VILES: Attorney General John Ashcroft and his staff have until December 21 to write the regulations. Already, there are two big controversies. First, how do you define a victim? Just those who died or suffered serious injury? What about those who lost jobs? Those suffering mental anguish?
SEN TOM DASCHLE (D), MAJORITY LEADER: By and large, I do think it has to be dedicated to those people who have lost their lives. But I'm not sure there isn't a way we might be able to advance it to those who are -- have been severely impacted as well. That's something that I think can be determined.
VILES: The other controversy, the law clearly states life insurance and pensions should be deducted from what the government gives. But what about charity money? On that issue, the law is simply not clear.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(on camera): The law puts the fund in the hands of one person, a special master yet to be named, who will essentially act as judge in thousands of cases. As one Justice Department official said, "It is a two year job and it is going to be a very tough one" -- Lou.
DOBBS: I'm not sure I believe that.
VILES: That it's going to be tough?
DOBBS: That it should be so tough. It seems like it's time here for some straightforward, commonsense and move that assistance to the families. I mean, this starts to sound a bit like we heard from a number of charities. "Oh, it's difficult." Or "we have a bureaucracy to maintain." "We have a way of doing business." Isn't it time for them to get the business?
VILES: If they make some clear decisions, it can be quite simple, but if they bogged down, compromises, it could become somewhat messy if families find out somebody's getting $3 million and we're getting $500,000. That kind of thing.
DOBBS: Thank you, Pete. It looks like we have some more work to qualify. Peter Viles. Coming up next here, plunging crude oil prices again today, sending oil shares falling. The latest on OPEC's efforts to cut oil production not so going so well. And blue chips managed to gain on the session. The Nasdaq closes a little bit lower for the first time in four sessions. We'll head to Wall Street for a report on all of the day's activity. Also, we'll take a look at the ranks of the unemployed. A sharp increase in white-collar layoffs and why one of the country's top economists expects more to come. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: And this just into CNN, updating an earlier story we were reporting to you. A United States Navy radar jamming plane crashed in Washington State this evening. All three crew members have been found alive and apparently with only minor injuries. Two of the crew taken back to Whitney Island Naval Air Station. Another has been taken to the hospital with a possible broken leg. The Coast Guard has no information on what caused that plane to crash. But again, all three crew members found safe with only minor injuries.
Oil prices today moving sharply lower for a second straight day. Pushing prices lower, a dispute between OPEC and non-OPEC rival Russia over output cuts. Yesterday, the cartel said it would curb production only if non-OPEC members agreed to do the same. Russia, Norway and Mexico refuse to do the same. And today, Kuwait's oil minister said he wouldn't be surprised if prices dropped to $10 a barrel. Let me repeat that, $10 a barrel.
Light sweet crude oil today falling to new two-year lows, down more than $2.00 today to $17.45 a barrel. Oil prices down 35 percent since the September 11 attacks.
Another round of somewhat ominous economic reports today, everything from job cuts to a survey that shows CEOS more pessimistic on the economy's prospects. But the market isn't buying it, at least that's the message from the bond market.
Kathleen Hays is here and has a look at what appears to be a -- something of a multiple personality in the markets.
KATHLEEN HAYS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, and you know it's funny, because people sometimes feel like the bond market, I don't own bonds. Why should I care? But you should care because if the bond market sells off, that means that yields go higher. That means higher interest rates for everything from corporations to home mortgages.
DOBBS: Especially home mortgages.
HAYS: Exactly. Look at what happened today. Look at more than almost a 3 point drop in the 30-year bond's price. The yield back up to 520. The 10-year note had its biggest one day move since October '98.
DOBBS: Speaking of mortgage interest rates.
HAYS: And that's what they key off of is the 10-year. And the 5-year note also suffering.
Want to put up this 30-year bond yield to show you how -- what a wild ride it has had. The big drop in yields occurred two weeks ago on Halloween by coincidence, when the Treasury Department said, "We're not going to sell anymore 30-year bonds." Everybody said, "No more supply, better snatch them up." Now that yield is right back where it started almost.
So why are we so bearish all of a sudden in the bond market? Well, first of all, the victories in Afghanistan have reduced sort of a crisis premium. People were scared. They flew into Treasuries. They're more optimistic about the outcome. They're going out of Treasuries.
Things like industrial commodity prices, after hitting multi-year lows, are now starting to rise, up about 2 percent in past week. Maybe that's a hint of a manufacturing rebound. The stock market, the rebound there, led by cyclicals. Looks like people in the stock market are looking ahead to the recovery.
What this all adds up to in the bond market, people say, is a sense that the Federal Reserve may be almost done cutting interest rates. There are some risks, of course. A lot if riding on the fiscal stimulus package. Now Congress agreed today on the airline security bill. Maybe the next order of business is a $100 billion of stimulus. But talk about risk, the...
DOBBS: How much?
HAYS: $100 billion. Is that enough for you? And it's going to include hotel breaks, I think.
Anyway, risk. The CEO survey was very interesting. The Conference Board's quarterly survey, 65 percent of the CEOS, 170 of them surveyed see lower profits ahead. 45 percent are going to cut capital spending. 47 percent expect to cut jobs more. And you know, today in the weekly...
DOBBS: How reliable is that CEO Conference?
HAYS: A lot of people saw a lot of story in this. And I've talked to other CEOS...
DOBBS: We actually checked out the track record?
HAYS: No, but I will.
DOBBS: No, I was just...
HAYS: I will.
DOBBS: Simple question.
HAYS: But a lot of CEOS say, who cares about consumer confidence because we're the guys who determine what happens. We determine, again, if people laid off, if we spend more money. DOBBS: But you're exactly right. Those are the guys who sent us into this thing.
HAYS: That's right.
DOBBS: Dog gone CEOs.
HAYS: Yes. What's wrong with them?
DOBBS: Kathleen, thanks a lot. Kathleen Hays.
Well, in terms of an economic recovery, my guest says there risks remain on the downside. And despite that somewhat negative outlook, Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley is here because we like him a lot and respect his work. Good to have you here.
STEPHEN ROACH, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MORGAN STANLEY: Good to be here, Lou.
DOBBS: You really -- tell us what you see for the next several months?
ROACH: The U.S. is in a recession. Japan's in a recession. Germany's in a recession. We've exported our recession north to Canada, south to Mexico. Argentina's in a recession. The world's in a synchronous recession. That's the bad news.
The good news is I've never seen a recession without a recovery.
DOBBS: And well, let's get right to it. How deep, how long this recession?
ROACH: I think the recession will last well through the first half of next year. I think it'll -- the worst quarter is possibly the quarter we're in right now. The declines will start to moderate in the first half of 2002. But the focus here has got to be on the quality, the character of the coming recovery. The markets are looking for a "V",stocks and now bonds.
DOBBS: Right.
ROACH: And the risk is that the "V" may not be as steep on the upside as it's turning out to be on the downside.
DOBBS: In terms of layoffs, we've lost a million manufacturing jobs this year. How significant is unemployment going to be? How painful?
ROACH: The unemployment rate, in my opinion, could get up to 6.5, possibly 7 percent by the time it's over. Not just the downside of the business cycle, but we've also got, I think, a chronic overhang of white collar workers coming out of the great Nasdaq bubble. You remember that, of the last 1990s.
An awful lot of staffing was done in white collar occupations that will now have to be taken out probably permanently. DOBBS: Well, that seemingly are the only jobs left, since we've lost so many manufacturing jobs, it almost has to be next. Let's talk about something more positive. And that would be recovery, you said, it won't be as steep as perhaps some think. How long to work our way through this?
ROACH: Well, I think, again, by the middle of the year, we will have purged the excess inventories. We will have begun to see the end of the capital spending recovery. And consumers will have been hard enough for long enough. And the impacts of Fed policy stimulus, the fiscal stimulus and lower oil prices will start to come together.
DOBBS: A long wait. We'll hope that time is compressed once again.
ROACH: It usually is.
DOBBS: Stephen Roach, thanks for being with us.
ROACH: Thanks.
DOBBS: Well, a mixed performance on Wall Street today. An early blue chip rally diminished, only to climb again in the final hour of trading. The Dow finishing up 48 points. The Nasdaq's dropped two points. And the S&P 500 gained a point on the day.
Christine Romans at the New York Exchange. Greg Clarkin at the Nasdaq marketsite. We'll begin with you, Christine.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Lou, some after-the- bell news from Phillip Morris, an image change and a name change for the tobacco and food giant. The company saying it'd like to change its name to "Altrea." And that would subject to shareholder approval at its April meeting. This, analysts say, to reflect the diversity of its product line up. You know, it's not just cigarettes anymore. It's got everything from Miller beer to Oscar Meyer wieners to Altoids, those little mints. The company also saying that if shareholders approve it, they would consider changing their ticker symbol from "MO" with the Dow component to something else.
Let's run through some of the big board movers here today. Providian topping the list. The stock down 23 percent after it was through. Its previous profit forecast, you know it's a struggling credit card firm. Tyco International, the third most active here. Home Depot saying it's going to raise its cash dividend to 5 cents from 4 cents. Kohls is a department store, Lou. It beat the Street on its quarter. Also says it's going to open about 70 new stores next year. Starbucks, by the way, trades over at the Nasdaq. But it's going to open 1200 new stores next year.
And Weight Watchers, WTW, this was the initial public offering here today. It was well received on Wall Street. It raised more than $416 million. And those shares rather soared -- Lou.
DOBBS: I'm still hung up on "Altrea" for Phillip Morris.
ROMANS: Altrea, they say.
DOBBS: Altrea. Now you have to learn how to pronounce it. What do you think of that name, Christine.
ROMANS: I don't know, I...
DOBBS: Is that going to play on the big board?
ROMANS: Well, I don't know. I don't know what the ticker symbol would be. I'm going to run through all the A ticker symbols in about a couple minutes here, but...
DOBBS: And you can bet they spent a lot of money to come up with that name.
ROMANS: I bet you they did.
DOBBS: Christine, thanks. Christine Romans.
Well, the Nasdaq, as I said, snapped a four day winning streak. The index slipping two points on the day. Greg Clarkin brings us up to date -- Greg.
GREG CLARKIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And Lou, I tell you, the (INAUDIBLE) really barely budged today. Most of the action in the morning. We saw the Nasdaq down 19, then up 20. After that, just kind of hugged the flatline throughout much of the session.
Take a look at some of the movers on the day, though. Applied Materials really the semi-conductor stocks were the pocket of weakness, if you will. Applied Materials, the chip equipment company, missing earnings estimates and also having some fairly negative things to say about the quarter that they're in right now.
Keep in eye on Dell Computer. After the close today, the company coming out and topping estimates by one penny. This was before the close. That stock action you see there today. It was up 23 cents.
Intel, along with the other semi-conductor companies down on the day. And Taser International, up about 23 percent or so. United Airlines, as we reported earlier in the show, will be outfitting their cockpits and their fleet with taser guns, stun guns. They'll be buying them from Taser International. So that stock getting a big pop. It's now trading over $13. It was back about $8 a share in early September -- Lou.
DOBBS: Stunning developments.
[laughter]
Thanks very much. Greg Clarkin.
Still ahead here, the king of software, a new player in the video game business. We'll take a look at the PR frenzy around the launch of Microsoft's X-box. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Well, the Microsoft PR machine is spending lavishly on the introduction of the X-Box.
Susan Lisovicz has the story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I love the game.
SUSAN LISOVICZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Bill Gates is working the crowds. TV commercials are seducing the viewers.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Three, two, one...
LISOVICZ: And now with the lavish launch of X-Box, Microsoft is gambling that there is a new player in the $20 billion a year global video game business.
ROBERT BACH, CHIEF XBOX OFFICER, MICROSOFT: Over the first 18 months of X-Box, we'll spend about a half a billion dollars in marketing around the world. And that's bigger than almost anything else we do.
LISOVICZ: And experts say Microsoft has to spend big, because it is competing head-to-head with the launch of Nintendo's Game Cube, that company's first new console since 1996. And Sony's Playstation II, which has already sold 20 million units worldwide since its debut last year, has ramped up its own promotion, Hollywood style. Analysts say this is Microsoft's first foray into a sector where marketing savvy is critical.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Microsoft is not a company that, up until this point, has achieved its market position through what we would normally think of as marketing. They've been in this position where they've had a dominant software position on one platform that they've been able to extend and extend in a number of different directions. But that's primarily through technical leverage rather than through marketing savvy.
LISOVICZ: Microsoft's marketing target, teenage and young adult males. But some observers say the most important advertising with that crowd is word of mouth.
JACK TROUT, TROUT & PARTNERS: One of the problems of getting so much attention and so much noise up front, you build anticipations. Everybody says, "Wow, this is going to be great." And if it's not great, it crashes that much faster.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LISOVICZ (on camera): And an early read of the success of the X- Box rollout is right around the corner with holiday sales. By one analyst estimate, Microsoft is prepared to loose a couple of billion dollars before breaking even by 2005 in order to get in on a fast growing industry -- Lou. DOBBS: So much money for something so beneficial to society.
LISOVICZ: If you're a teenage male, you might agree with that statement.
DOBBS: Well, you might not have noticed, but I'm not. Susan, thanks a lot. Susan Lisovicz. "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS" And it will begin in just a few minutes. We're going to go to Wolf now in Washington, to find out what's ahead -- Wolf.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, Lou. I'm not a teenage male either. Coming up here in the CNN war room, the Taliban leader Mullah Omar threatened the United States with destruction. How seriously are U.S. officials taking that threat? And what about all the nuclear documents discovered in an al Qaeda building in Afghanistan? We'll have the latest developments. Also in our CNN war room, we'll assess the U.S. military's next steps in this war. That's all next -- Lou.
DOBBS: Wolf, thanks a lot. Looking forward to it.
Coming up next here, we'll look at your thoughts and we'll have a report on the economy that could move the markets tomorrow. Maybe. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
DOBBS: Well, tomorrow, the Consumer Price Index will come out for the month of October. Economists are expecting a decline in consumer prices from September. We'll also have corporate earnings from Krispy Kreme Donuts and American Eagle Outfitters.
Taking a look at some of your thoughts tonight. Scott McGuire in Kentucky writes in to say he'd like to thank the National Transportation Safety Board for its daily briefings that we've broadcasting to you since the crash of flight 587. He writes, "The info they provide the public is important. Hopefully, federal agencies will learn from this and provide more information to the media to be broadcast to the public. Please pass the thanks on the NTSB as they greatly deserve it. And you're certainly right."
As we reported tonight, the White House and Congress have reached a compromise on an aviation security bill. David Merriweather had written in to say, "The Democrats want all airport security people to be federal employees. Isn't this just another verse of the Democrat anthem that government workers can do everything better than us common folks, even spend our money?" And yes, usually in the area of public safety and defense, they do.
Well, taking a look now at the subject of spending your money and the idea some hotel groups are looking for a tax breaks. Matt writes in to say, "Hotels wanting to a tax dollar bailout? No way." His final thought on that issue.
We love to hear from you. Please send us your thoughts at moneyline@cnn.com. And that is MONEYLINE for this Thursday evening. Thanks for being with us. I'm Lou Dobbs. Good night from New York City. "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS" begins right now.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
