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CNN LIVE TODAY
Interview with Michael Swetnam of the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Aired November 30, 2001 - 11:57 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Just heard from the Pentagon. Want to talk more about Osama bin Laden and his potential hiding places, the al Qaeda people around him and around the world.
Michael Swetnam knows it better than anyone. He's with the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. Live in Washington. Michael, good morning. Been waiting to talk to you all week. Good to have you with us.
MICHAEL SWETNAM, POTOMAC INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES: Well, thank you for having me.
HEMMER: You view this war right now as a race. We need to get them before they get us again. Right now, who's winning, Michael?
SWETNAM: I think we're winning for the -- for the moment, in that we have been able to probably capture the -- the operatives in the United States before September the 11th. And we've been able to take down some of the support structure in Europe. But I'm sure that there are many more operatives around the world poised to come into this country and attack us again.
HEMMER: And that's what I want to know about. What do you gauge right now, either in terms of theory or fact, based on the terrorist cells, either in this country or in Europe or in the Pacific? What are they doing now?
SWETNAM: Certainly they're -- they're -- they have been planning and orchestrating more attacks on the United States. It is totally unlike this organization to perpetrate one act, September the 11th, and not have many others planned and ready to execute.
I think we probably prevented a couple from happening by arresting some of the leaders in Europe. But I would suspect that there are two or three other major plans in the offing, that hopefully we'll be able to thwart before they actually carry them out.
HEMMER: Michael, are you suggesting these were in the planning stages prior to September 11th, before...
SWETNAM: Most likely...
HEMMER: ...they knew of the success of that day? SWETNAM: Mostly likely. Most likely. From what we've seen in the past, they carry out -- successfully carry out an attack about once a year. From the embassy bombings to the bombing of the USS Cole. But in between, they attempt many others that are prevented or derailed for one -- one reason or another. So, it would be unlike them just to do September the 11th and not have others already planned.
HEMMER: We have not seen a video tape from Osama bin Laden in several weeks. You think that's critical. Why?
SWETNAM: Yes, I do. Traditionally, we hear from him about once a month. And sub -- since September the 11th, we have. If we don't hear from him by Christmas, I would suspect that we probably either have gotten him. He was...
HEMMER: Really?
SWETNAM: He's in cave -- he's in a cave -- cave-in somewhere, or that he snuck out to another country, and he's plotting a rise again to -- to, to, to power. I -- I worry that we have, hopefully, gotten him and he's under a pile of rubble somewhere in -- in Afghanistan. But if we're unable to verify that, we'll have what I call the "Eldest bin Laden Effect." Where, he'll be dead, we'll be unable to prove it and he'll be sighted around the Arab world and will still be a leader -- a spiritual leader, even in death.
HEMMER: Quickly, Michael, before we wrap this interview. I want to know. When you talk about U.S. targets, you talking specifically here in the U.S. or these interests overseas?
SWETNAM: I think that the most likely targets are overseas because they're easier. But, the -- the higher value targets are the U.S. It -- it has a lot more prestige to attack a U.S. target. It's a little bit harder for them to do, but I think the ultimate goal is to attack us here in the United States and show the world that they're capable of still doing it.
HEMMER: Michael Swetnam, thanks for coming by. We will talk again down the road, okay?
SWETNAM: Thank you.
HEMMER: Many thanks. Live in Washington.
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