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CNN Live Saturday

Yasser Arafat Appearance on Israeli TV Draws Mixed Responses

Aired December 08, 2001 - 16:13   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CALLAWAY: The Palestinian leader's appearance yesterday on Israeli television is receiving some mixed reviews, to put it kindly, from Israelis. Arafat said that despite everything, "I extend my hand for peace with Israel."

But he got angry when the interviewer suggested neither Israel nor America was satisfied with his crackdown on Palestinian militants. The Israeli government says it is "unfortunate public television gave Arafat air time."

Well, President Bush is turning up the pressure on Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to "root out those killers thwarting the Middle East peace process." And the Israeli prime minister blamed Arafat outright for the terrorist bombings in Israel that occurred last weekend. So what is next for the Palestinian leader?

And that's a question for -- that we're going to ask Shibley Telhami, who is with the University of Maryland and a doctor of political science. He's joining us today from Washington.

Thanks for being with us.

SHIBLEY TELHAMI, UNIV. OF MARYLAND: My pleasure.

CALLAWAY: I don't think we can discount Arafat yet though, can we?

TELHAMI: No, I think, you know, many people have written this man's obituaries several people before, only to be disappointed. He's clearly proven himself to be a survivor. This is a tough bind he's in. He has been in other tough binds, we have to remind ourselves of that over and over again.

This is a critical juncture, no question about it. And clearly, there's a lot of pressure, not only on him personally, but on the Palestinian Authority. And it really does matter, in terms of what happens next.

Clearly, it he's gone from the scene individually, it matters a lot how this happens. If the Israelis are the ones responsible for it, comes as a direct result of Israeli actions, I think it would backfire. If he happens to pass naturally without the collapse of the Palestinian authority, the Palestinians would find a way. If the Palestinian Authority collapses itself in the process, I think there will be a tremendous anarchy in the region. And more importantly, probably a transformation of this conflict from a nationalist conflict to a religious/ethnic conflict. That is the real fear. It's not just Arafat at stake, but really the conflict itself.

CALLAWAY: Well, you know, Arafat has certainly been a one-man show. And if he were to be removed or no longer be in control there, the chances of getting someone who was totally in control of all the Palestinians and agreeable with perhaps Israel and whoever else is involved in the peace negotiations seem awfully slim.

TELHAMI: Well, first of all, no one is a one-man show. Authoritarian leaders certainly have a lot of power. But they need institutions. They need other people. And we have seen a lot of other very strong authoritarian governments who passed away. And they were replaced by others. The institutions find a way.

There is a Palestinian bureaucracy. There is the PLO bureaucracy. There's the Palestinian Authority bureaucracy. They're extremely weakened in this environment, but they're there. And they have a lot of interest. And they still even militarily have more power than their opponents.

It is in their interest, if something should happen to Arafat, to come together. I think the real question is whether this would happen as a result of Israeli actions, this would happen naturally, or if this happens after the collapse of those institutions. In which case, it would be very difficult for people to come together.

Theoretically, if Arafat were to pass from the scene naturally, what would happen would be the PLO executive committee would meet and would choose a successor. It might be the number two man, Abu Nasser (ph). It might be someone else. But they would probably move to broker a deal to chose a successor.

Arafat himself though has been important, not only because he held all these different levers of power with the security service and the institution, but also, he's been a symbol of Palestinian nationalism. He has really been sort of the flag of the movement. Even though he's not popular especially at the moment among Palestinians, nonetheless, he has a legacy. He represent the national aspect of the Palestinian movement. And therefore, his passing will be dramatic for the Palestinian movement.

CALLAWAY: Do you believe that anyone who were to exceed him would be more radical towards Israel? And wouldn't Israel come out not ahead in this situation if there was a change?

TELHAMI: I don't think the issue is individuals. The issue is what you have on the ground. Clearly, the status quo is not acceptable for the Palestinians. And it doesn't really almost matter who replaces Arafat ultimately. What they're going to have to contend with is a structure that is not unacceptable.

They're going to have to offer the public something. At the moment, Arafat's problem isn't really sort of a personal problem. His problem is he's not offering the public anything. He has no military solution for the conflict. And the peace process that he brokered over the '90s just collapsed.

And there is no prospect of delivering his people from occupation through negotiations. And there is certainly no military option. That is the level of frustration, you know, among Palestinians. Therefore, whoever comes into power after Arafat is going to have to deliver something.

CALLAWAY: What do you think that situation needs right now? I mean, it would seem to me if Arafat were to be removed in anyway, that a sense of chaos would break out for those wanting to be in control, or at least appear to be in control of the situation?

TELHAMI: I do not believe the problem is Arafat as such right now. He clearly has made a lot of failures over the years. But I think he still is capable, I believe, of delivering an agreement in part because he needs it. His legacy depends on having a negotiated settlement.

If his nationalist project collapses, the religious opponents of his rule will have won. And clearly, he has an interest in having some kind of an agreement.

I think, as I see it at the moment is he's -- there are two problems here. One problem is that he might be a bit too weak to enforce a full cease-fire. And that is a problem. But the other problem is that I believe that the Israeli government of Ariel Sharon has not made a decision yet to make a deal with him. And I think perhaps even have made a decision that they cannot make a deal with him.

And therefore, it might not be possible, but American diplomacy, clearly, is essential here. And we have General Zinni trying to broker a deal. I think it's a critical mission, because if this mission fails, I think we're -- it's going to be very, very difficult to imagine any deal in the foreseeable future between the Palestinian Authority and Israel.

CALLAWAY: All right, Shibley Tehami, thank you for joining us today and give us your insights into the situation there.

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