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American Morning

Pakistan Analyst Discusses Whereabouts of Bin Laden, Omar

Aired December 19, 2001 - 09:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: We are talking about a big border, a big job, and a big problems as hundreds of Taliban and al Qaeda and Taliban fighters may be slipping from Afghanistan into Pakistan.

To tell us more about what is being done about it and the kind of problems it could lead to, we want to welcome Pakistani analyst Mansoor Ijaz. He is a member of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations. He is joining us from New York.

Good morning. Good to see you.

MANSOOR IJAZ, PAKISTANI ANALYST: Good to see you, Daryn.

KAGAN: Let's talk about this border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This is a big border; it is hard to seal off.

IJAZ: Sure. It is, and part of the problem that we are facing right now that is difficult to deal with is that you have you these Pashtun tribal leaders whose loyalties are deeply embedded with the Taliban because for years they have been their biggest patrons, their biggest clients, sending munitions, arms, food, and anything else that needed to be done across the border.

KAGAN: You can't turn that around overnight.

IJAZ: You can't turn that around overnight; neither can you change loyalties that are deeply embedded in a religious philosophy. That's part of the problem that we are dealing with now.

KAGAN: Who exactly is going across the border that the United States should be concerned about?

IJAZ: Daryn, I think the biggest problem is with the al Qaeda fighters who are Arabs or from other parts of the world.

KAGAN: Other parts being besides Pakistan?

IJAZ: Other parts of the Arab world: Yemeni or maybe Sudanese or something like that.

KAGAN: Why would you be more worried about them?

IJAZ: Because they are essentially going across to go up to fight in Kashmir, which would then stoke the fire vis-a-vis the problems we have in India today. These are some of the same people that attacked the Parliament building in India last week.

KAGAN: The question is once they get across the border, where exactly do you think they are going?

IJAZ: I think that they are going to try to get as far north as they can and get into the Pakistan-held side of Kashmir, which is a semi-autonomous that doesn't have any direct Pakistani military control.

KAGAN: Then once there?

IJAZ: Once there, when the snow time is over and the snows melt, in the spring, you will see these people go into the valley on the Indian-held side of Kashmir and start their terrorist activities again.

KAGAN: Some people have made the point it is one thing to get across the borer; why can't they be arrested once they do get across. Don't worry so much about the border, go for them once they're in Pakistan, before they would get into that Kashmir area.

IJAZ: Part of the problem is identifying them. If no one is willing to identify who they are, it's very difficult to know which ones of these people. As we have seen the people coming out of the caves, these are people that look very similar to the Afghans that were in the northern Alliance. So it's very difficult to tell exactly who these people are.

But the second thing is that Gen. Musharraf cannot afford to put too many of his key elite troops along that border...

KAGAN: Why not?

IJAZ: ... and then have the Indians blow up in Kashmir and force them to come across to the other side very quickly. Any military man cannot open two fronts at the same time when the reaction times between these two countries are so short.

It is one thing to have various al Qaeda fighters and Taliban go across. Two people that we're very interested in, Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar, what do you think the chances are they crossed over and are in Pakistan?

IJAZ: Certainly, there is a real possibility that that's happened. I think that if it has happened in the way that has been described, where he shaved his beard off and is in disguise, it wouldn't be very difficult for him it slip out through the river boats and get to Karachi. If he got to Karachi, I think the game is over, and it is going to be very difficult to find him.

Clearly, he has made a decision to stay alive. Where people thought he might try to martyr himself, he has clearly made a decision to stay alive and try to hold this thing together.

KAGAN: Mansoor Ijaz, we are going to have you stick around to the next hour. When we come back, I want to talk to you about the ISA, which is the Pakistani intelligence service, what role they might play in this and find out more about how that organization works. So if you stick around, we will see you in the next hour.

IJAZ: OK. Thank you.

KAGAN: Thank you so much.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LYNETTE LAFFEA, GOLDEN, COLORADO: Lynette Laffea, from Golden, Colorado, asks, "What role will women have in the formation of a new Afghanistan government?"

HASSINA SHERIAN SAMAD, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, AID AFGHANISTAN: Thank you for your question, Lynette. Women will be involved in the future government of Afghanistan. As we're seeing already in the formation of the new government, there are two women ministers.

One of them, who has been in Afghanistan for the past 24 years, is Gen. Suhaila, who is a military general as well as a doctor who has been running a hospital in Afghanistan.

The second woman, who is Sima Samar, has been involved in running hospitals, schools, and other projects for refugee women for the past 20 years.

There is already involvement of women in the formation of the government of Afghanistan.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

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