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American Morning
Looking Forward To New Technology, Gadgets
Aired December 26, 2001 - 08:45 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: If you didn't receive everything on your holiday wish list, there is still hope you can hit the malls to take advantage of some of those bargains that we were just referring to.
Or, you could be patient and wait for some of the coolest tech- toys and tools of the new year.
Paul Saffo is technology forecaster extraordinaire. He joins us from Denver, Colorado this morning.
Paul, happy holidays to you.
PAUL SAFFO, DIR., INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE: Good morning, Miles.
O'BRIEN: All right. What should we be looking -- at the consumer electronics show coming up in a few weeks. And that's where you see all the latest, coolest gadgets that are coming out -- what should we be looking for?
SAFFO: Well, I think it's going to be a year where there's going to be a lot to look at, but the things that actually arrive in our lives may be a little less exciting than they look at first.
It's an industry that's trying to worry about consolidation, and figure out economic models.
They're dying to sell us stuff and we're dying to buy it. But everybody's still scratching their head over who pays the bill.
O'BRIEN: Interesting. Now, DVD was very hot this Christmas season. Is that a technology that, you know, we're going to see some significant changes, there? Or is that already quickly maturing, if you will?
SAFFO: I think the bottom line for DVD is the word mainstream. You're going to see it starting to displace video tape very, very quickly.
And I would imagine within three years, people are going to go into the local video rental store and say, remember when they used to have those tape things? DVD is quickly becoming the norm.
O'BRIEN: So, Paul, I should get rid of my beta max video player? Is that what you're telling me?
SAFFO: Well, Miles, I think, we all know you've been a techno nerd for about a decade, and you should keep it in your museum.
O'BRIEN: Oh, OK. In the museum, the O'Brien museum.
What about MP3s? We talked less about that this fall, obviously, with other things on our mind. But the whole MP3, the Napster issue, all of that -- is there some new technology out there that we should be looking for?
SAFFO: Well, there's lots of stuff hanging around. But the real battle there is between the music establishment and the upstarts. And the legal fight over who gets to copy what is going to continue to keep things a little in the air.
In the meantime, Apple's got its wonderful new iPod. A lot of other companies have seen that and they're going to say, we can deliver something like that, too.
O'BRIEN: So, basically, I mean, the bottom line is, music is going to be digitally distributed. I mean, that's probably safe to say.
It's a question of whether these companies can maintain their intellectual property rights. Do you think it can be done when you're talking about something as freewheeling as the Internet?
SAFFO: Well, Hollywood has been fighting a rear guard action against technology for over a decade. Remember, they opposed the VCR 15 years ago.
In fact, I sometimes think the surest fire indicator that something's going to be a success is that Jack Valenti and everybody else in Hollywood thinks it's a terrible idea.
O'BRIEN: Let's talk about bandwidth at home. We've been talking about this for years. I think I've probably, I don't know, it might have been eight years ago.
I went out to your house and we were talking about how we're going to have 500 channels in our houses, all this bandwidth.
We're still waiting, Paul. But it does ...
SAFFO: And I told you -- I told you then it wasn't going to happen soon.
O'BRIEN: Well, you were right. You were right. It might have been eight years ago. I don't know. Time flies.
Nevertheless, here we are, and I think a lot more people have DSL. They have cable modems. I don't know that it's quite reached critical mass, yet. Are we getting close, though?
SAFFO: Well, I'm still stuck with dial-up. And I think ... O'BRIEN: You are not!
SAFFO: I absolutely am. I cannot get DSL or cable to my house in Silicon Valley. And that's the whole story, that the companies ...
O'BRIEN: Say that again. You are in Menlo Park, right?
SAFFO: I am in Menlo Park, and I cannot get DSL ...
O'BRIEN: Right in the heart of the valley, and you're going in at 56 K. That should tell it all right there, shouldn't it.
SAFFO: It's, you know, the future's already arrived. But it's just not evenly distributed yet, as Bill Gibson once said.
O'BRIEN: What does that mean, though? I mean, you know, there's all this desire to put so much content out there, to do video conferencing, to put programming on there.
And if people like you can't even get it, and would obviously use it, there's a big problem.
SAFFO: Well, it's a big problem that's going to get solved, I think in the next 24 months. The consolidations following the bubble are good news.
It means we've got large companies with a lot of muscle. They're going to try and figure out how to do this economically, and deliver to people what they want.
O'BRIEN: All right. Twenty-four months. I've got you on record for that. We're going to come back and hold you to that one.
Let's talk wireless for just a moment.
Once again, that elusive box that does it all. You know, I've got the Blackberry and the cell phone and the Palm Pilot. I'd love it all to be in one box, and there's lot of ideas flirting out there.
I've seen some products which has the Palm software with the cell phone built in, and trying to figure out how I would be on the phone and taking notes at the same time.
But that -- be that as it may, the elusive unibox, if you will, still hasn't happened. How close are we to that?
SAFFO: Well, a little company called Danger Research has a box they'd love to sell you, Miles. And Handspring has a wonderful new phone. But it all fits in one box, but it's still not quite smooth yet.
The problem with wireless today is, it's right where the Internet was at the start of the '90s.
Remember when the Internet was happening, we all said, yeah, that's cool. But it was kind of early adopter phenomena, still. Wireless is the same way. It's poised to bring the Internet, not just to our desktops, but to where we actually live, work and play.
But the problem is that the networks using are still pretty old- fashioned.
O'BRIEN: What -- so what could be done about that? Once again, you get back to these infrastructure pipeline issues, all that stuff that we really don't understand or care about.
SAFFO: Well, I'd be negligent if I didn't use a little techno- speak. The main concept is 802.11, a fancy label for, basically wireless Ethernet.
And 802.11 is starting to deploy. It's getting the attention of the establishment. That may be what finally does it, but I don't expect it to arrive before Easter, unless you're a serious nerd.
O'BRIEN: It sounds like a sitcom -- Silicon Valley 802.11, or something.
But, all right, well that -- be that as it may, ...
SAFFO: Your next career.
O'BRIEN: ... you know, we really don't care about that stuff. Our eyes are glazing over. We're just wondering when the darn stuff is going to work.
Let me ask you this about home networking. I've been kind of in the throes of this, trying to set one up at my place, and it's really very cumbersome.
Nobody, it seems to me, has come up with a turnkey solution to bring all, you know, because we're talking about a lot of multiple computer homes, now, who like to share, pen or share files. It's not easy.
SAFFO: It's not. But that is the place where wireless does apply. And before you start opening up your walls, Miles, and pulling wire, you should look at 802.11.
Devices like the Apple AirPort -- real easy to use. You literally just plug it into the wall, turn your computer on and go. And it gives you wireless Ethernet inside your house, fast enough to deliver to a video conferencing -- at least within your house. You won't be able to get out.
O'BRIEN: Of course, you still have that 56 K modem you're dealing with, Paul, but that's ...
SAFFO: Right.
O'BRIEN: ... another matter.
SAFFO: But you can talk to your kid down the hall. O'BRIEN: Or you could walk down and knock on his door, but that would be so low tech, wouldn't it.
SAFFO: Indeed.
O'BRIEN: Paul Saffo, who has an excellent crystal ball for technology, told me eight years ago there wouldn't be 500 channels of interactive TV. He was right, eight years later.
All right. Thank you very much for being with us, as always. And we'll check in with you 24 months from now to see if you're right about all this.
SAFFO: Thanks, Miles. All right.
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