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American Morning
Insights on Latest Bin Laden Video
Aired December 27, 2001 - 08:04 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Al-Jazeera has received another videotaped statement from Osama bin Laden, as we have told you. But beyond the message, analysts also have an opportunity to look at bin Laden.
Our next guest is Paul Bremer. He was President Reagan's ambassador-at-large for counterterrorism in the late '80s. He is currently chairman and CEO of Marsh Crisis Consulting Company -- good to have you with us, sir.
L. PAUL BREMER, MARSH CRISIS CONSULTING: Good morning -- nice to be with you.
O'BRIEN: What are your thoughts, first of all, on the way Osama bin Laden looks? Quite a dramatic change over the past few months.
BREMER: I'm not an expert, but he certainly looks thinner to me and less animated than he did in the earlier tapes we saw. And I'm sure the experts in our government are going to be looking at this very closely. He certainly looks a little more peaked than he did before.
O'BRIEN: There have been repeated statements and rumors about his health, a possibility that he might have some lung complications, other ailments. Do you know much about that, and can we read any of that into this as we look at some of these images over the recent memory?
BREMER: I'm aware of those reports, including reports that he might have had a kidney problem. I think it will take a medical doctor, which is not me, to examine very closely the rest of this video. We've actually only seen, I think, five minutes of what will be a 35-minute video. There may be more clues to be had about his health when we see the rest of the video later today.
O'BRIEN: Now, looking at the videotape, we were speaking last hour with another security consultant, who said, you know, little things like the way that the Kalashnikov is placed there with its strap, and things like that could actually be sending a message to al Qaeda operatives. The way Osama bin Laden darts his eyes, for example.
What do you make of that? Shall we read -- are we reading too much into these things?
BREMER: It's almost impossible to know. I think the administration has been right in expressing concern about broadcasting these videos, because it is possible that hidden in the video -- either the short part we have seen now or the longer part later today -- there will be messages. We know that one of the major objectives of the military campaign has been to try to make it harder for bin Laden to communicate, and by airing a video like this, we may be, in fact, undermining one of our objectives.
O'BRIEN: Which puts us in a bit of a conundrum. On the one hand, it's certainly a newsworthy event. It's something that really can't be stopped from being released. By the same token, it would be unfortunate if unwittingly the media was aiding and abetting terrorism.
BREMER: Well, I think the only recourse you have is to put out that Al-Jazeera probably is going to broadcast the whole thing in any event and may be able to reach his people.
I think it's important in all of this to remember that this fight we're in is not about one man. It's not about Osama bin Laden. This is a battle against terrorism. It's a much broader battle than just bin Laden or al Qaeda. We're at the beginning of what is going to be a very long war, as the president has pointed out, which is going to go beyond Afghanistan and beyond bin Laden. So we shouldn't become too hypnotized by the questions about bin Laden himself.
O'BRIEN: But given the apparent complicity here and guilt in the September 11 attacks, it's natural, I think, for Americans to focus on al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden for now. My question is: No matter what his condition, his health, dead or alive, is al Qaeda, do you think, a fully functioning terrorist organization right now with Osama bin Laden either on the run or perhaps dead?
BREMER: Well, I certainly hope that it's not fully functioning. But we have to remember that al Qaeda has varying cells in many countries, including the United States. Lots of sleeper terrorists, who in fact, may not even need communications to act. They may be able to act on their own.
We still haven't gotten to the bottom of this fellow, Mr. Reid, who tried to blow up the American Airlines flight from Paris the other day. Whether he was connected with al Qaeda remains to be seen. It seems to me he was probably a mule, somebody who was not himself a professional terrorist, but who had professional help behind him. What kind of help and who? We don't know. It just shows that we have a lot more to worry about here than just bin Laden.
O'BRIEN: Well, we were talking to Peter Bergen last hour as well, and he is one of our terrorism analysts. He has also met Osama bin Laden -- interviewed him in Afghanistan. And he says no matter what the situation of Osama bin Laden's whereabouts or health, or whether he's alive or dead, he believes that al Qaeda pretty much is ceasing to operate as a going concern. Because let's face it, Osama bin Laden is the man with the money in this terrible, evil vision, and without it, al Qaeda disperses. Would you go along with that theory?
BREMER: Look, it is certainly a very good thing if we can decapitate the leadership of al Qaeda. The history of fighting against terrorism shows that when you do decapitate the leadership one way or the other, by putting them in jail or killing them, slowly the body does shrivel up underneath it and becomes much less dangerous.
But we don't know if bin Laden is dead yet. We don't know about the whereabouts of two of his deputies, who in fact, are the brains behind the organization -- the Egyptians. We don't know about the size and activity of cells, which could be operating more or less autonomously in many countries, including the United States. So I think it's far too early to declare that we have defeated al Qaeda at this point.
O'BRIEN: Let's get back to where you began -- the wider war on terrorism. Give us a sense of what you think the timing will be, and where we might see this war unfold.
BREMER: The president has been very clear, I think, since September that the broad strategic objective is to deny terrorists the ability to operate from benign environments -- to attack from benign environments. And the list of benign environments is fairly clear. There are places like Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Iran, Iraq, which continue to offer terrorists a place from which they can operate freely. And those are the kinds of targets, I think, of American diplomacy and potentially military action that are going to come up on the screen here when we get through this Afghan phase.
O'BRIEN: Paul Bremer is with Marsh Crisis Consulting, formerly a State Department counterterrorism official -- thanks for being with us on CNN this morning -- appreciate it.
BREMER: Thank you.
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