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American Morning

Interview of Rob Sobhani; President to Meet With Reporters

Aired December 28, 2001 - 09:10   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: The hunt for Osama bin Laden continues in the Tora Bora region, but there is increasing speculation today that the world's most wanted man may, in fact, have escaped Afghanistan to Pakistan, or possibly may be dead. Joining us with more on all of this is Rob Sobhani, an expert on Islamic fundamentalism from Georgetown University in Washington. Good to have you with us, Mr. Sobhani.

ROB SOBHANI, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: Good morning, Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right. First of all, let's talk about the tape for a moment. Once again, it seems that Osama bin Laden is trying to use his propaganda and his rhetoric to inflame the Islamic world to create a Crusade, if you will, so far that seems to have fallen flat. Why?

SOBHANI: I think because his message really was so far away from the mainstream of Islam, that even Muslims found it abhorring, number one. Number two, the fact that the previous videotape which the Defense Department put out, showed him really gloating of the death of these young men, really brought the moderates within the Arab world to the side of reason, and the only people really who are left right now are maybe the very fringe, who may be following Osama bin Laden. So, all in all, I'd say Osama bin Laden has been marginalized, in many respects, within the Arab world.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about appearances for a moment as well. At the very least he is an exhausted man, perhaps, though, ill or injured. As we look at this progression of how he has looked in various interviews and videotapings from 90's all the way to the present. Talked last hour with Peter Bergen, our terrorism analyst who said that throughout the course of the 34 minute broadcast that Al-Jazeera put out yesterday, he did not move his left arm at all. Which seems to indicate an injury or some kind of illness. What's your take on that? Is this a sick or perhaps dying man?

SOBHANI: I think, Miles, whether he is sick or dying, while important, the broader point was his message, which was really changed and evolved. Bin Laden's "reason death," (ph), his reason for being was to overthrow the Saudi monarchy, to get the American forces out of Saudi Arabia. This particular message, the latest one, he's talking about the Palestinian issue. I think it is an act of a desperate person. He has no more themes to play on, and therefore, he is trying to wrap himself around the Palestinian issue. And therefore, more broadly, the significance of this tape is this: The Arab world has looked at what's happened in Afghanistan, and what President Bush and the Bush administration has done, as an act of liberation. Osama bin Laden's message has been marginalized, and this bodes well if we look down the future to Iraq, Somalia, and other countries, if that is where our site will be. The broader message is the Muslim world did not rise, the Arab world did not rise, which means we are on the right track in terms of our campaign against terrorism.

O'BRIEN: Yes, I see your point, but it seems to me that is a difficult tightrope to walk. It's a very fragile thing, and as the U.S. contemplates broadening its war on terrorism, what does the administration need to do to keep Islamic support, or at least keep the Islamic world from harshly criticizing those actions?

SOBHANI: Let's take example of Iraq. In Iraq, the Palestinian issue really has no resonance because the people of Iraq have suffered enormously from Saddam Hussein, so if the United States frames the issue of Iraq as one of liberating the people of Iraq from Saddam Hussein, much as we frame the argument liberating Afghanistan from the Taliban, then I think we will be successful. We need to narrow it on case by case basis, and I think we will be successful.

O'BRIEN: Finally, before you get way, a word on his possible whereabouts, all these conflicting reports, he may be dead, he might be in Pakistan, he might, in fact, be in Afghanistan. Certainly he has the walking around money, the bribe money, if you will, to move around if need be, and certainly he thrives on the chaos that comes at the end-game of any sort of military conflict. What's your best take on where he might be?

SOBHANI: I think, Miles, if he's alive, I would focus my attention on Al-Jazeera television network in Qatar, because if he is alive, he will try to get a tape to them to say to the the world that he is alive. I would blanket that television station with all the intelligence that I can, because that is going to be his conduit. He will try to send a message or tape to that station, and if he is alive, that's the way we can intercept him. He may be at a location where there is no central government, and that includes places like Somalia, Chechnya, possibly parts of Pakistan.

O'BRIEN: Professor Rob Sobhani of Georgetown University, a lecturer there at the School of Foreign Service. Thank you very much for being with us this morning, we appreciate it.

SOBHANI: Thank you very much.

O'BRIEN: Happy New Year to you.

President Bush is monitoring developments in Afghanistan from his ranch in Crawford, Texas. Mr. Bush is expected to give an update on America's new war later this morning. CNN White House Correspondent Major Garrett will be there for that -- good morning, Major.

MAJOR GARRETT, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Miles.

Just to let our audience know, I personally won't be there, the president is inviting a small group called the pool of reporters to his Texas ranch. From the doorstep of what is called the "Governor's Ranch," outside, the president will give what White House aides describe as a brief update on the course of the war to date, and White House officials tell us not to expect any breaking news from the president about the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden, or the future fate of John Walker Lindh, the American turned al Qaeda fighter. Both issues heavily on the mind of the press corps and the Bush administration. President, of course, is going to take questions on the whole range of issues dealing with Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as India. Those two issues have been top on president's agenda while he has been at the Crawford ranch, monitoring not only the latest bin Laden tape, but dealing with his secretary of state, Colin Powell, who has been working the phones very aggressively trying to reduce tensions between India and Pakistan, getting those two nations to move toward a more diplomatic track to resolve some of the differences that have led to increased troop movements along the border between those two nuclear armed rivals, an issue very much on president's mind, so we're likely hear about those as well -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right. We'll be looking forward to that. We, of course, plan to bring you live coverage as soon as that becomes available to us. Major Garrett will be with us to debrief the whole situation. Thanks very much, Major.

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