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CNN Live Saturday

Does Condit Stand a Chance of Reelection?

Aired March 02, 2002 - 12:13   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: In three days, embattled Congressman Gary Condit's political future may be sealed. Tuesday, voters in California's 18th congressional district will go to the polls to either re-nominate or oust Condit from office. The Democrat once held a lock on his district, but since he was linked to the disappearance of Chandra Levy, much of his support has eroded.

Rich Ibarra (ph) from CNN affiliate KCRA takes a look at voter sentiment and Condit's odds of returning to office.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The major announcement is we re going to win.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's it, we are going to win.

RICK IBARRA, KCRA REPORTER (voice-over): Gary Condit's father and son believe he can win, and some groups, such as these veterans, are endorsing Condit.

ROBERT CARSON, VIETNAM VETERAN: I am a Vietnam Marine. And you know what? I'm a fighter, he is a fighter, he has helped the veterans, he's helped me personally, he stood alongside me, and I stand alongside him.

IBARRA: But many have deserted the Condit camp as the details of Chandra Levy and her disappearance came to light. Campaign contributions sank, and Condit loaned his own campaign $50,000 in the final week of this primary race.

CHAD CONDIT, CONDIT CAMPAIGN MANAGER: He is willing to put his money where his mouth is. I mean, this is a career on the line. It's not like he has just come around yesterday. He has been fighting for 30 years. He is willing to put his own money, him and mom, put their own money up for this campaign.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Cardoza for Congress.

IBARRA: Former Condit aide and current assemblyman, Dennis Cardoza, is flushed with funding however, and by his own polls, well ahead.

DENNIS CARDOZA (D), CALIF. CONG. CANDIDATE: We have a really good lead. We see across the board support in my recent poll that I did. There wasn't any community where I was losing. There wasn't any age group that I was losing. We are leading in all categories of moderate, conservative and liberal.

CONDIT: If it's a race that is determined by who has the most money or who raises the most money, he'll probably win. But we will think it's going to be a race about who has the best record.

IBARRA: When neither candidate is talking about the Levy affair, nor are the former friends talking to each other.

CARDOZA: If it hadn't been me, it would have been somebody else. Gary could not win the general election, can't win the general election. So if there are Democrats out there that want to turn this seat over to Republicans, they should vote for Gary Condit.

IBARRA: Both candidates are hitting the streets, shaking hands and looking for votes.

CONDIT: We get the luxury or the privilege of running both as a favorite and the underdog this time.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: And that was reporter Rich Ibarra from CNN affiliate KCRA.

And through all the criticism and questions surrounding Congressman Condit's involvement in the Chandra Levy matter, does he have a chance of winning the Democratic nomination?

Well, joining us to discuss this from Washington is CNN senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, and from Sacramento, California, Robert Salladay, political reporter for the "San Francisco Chronicle" -- thanks very much for joining me this afternoon, gentlemen.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Pleasure.

WHITFIELD: Robert, let's begin with you. We heard from one of the family members there. They are going to fight until the end, even though Condit's popularity has plummeted, his funds from campaigning are down in the dumps, and his attorney costs only seem to be on the rise for the $118,000 he has already spent on that. Are we going to see his name on the ballot after Tuesday's primary?

ROBERT SALLADAY, "SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE": Well, for Condit, it's looking pretty grim. I mean, if you look at the poll that Cardoza took, before he went on "LARRY KING LIVE" in his -- really his second national interview after Connie Chung, which was admittedly a disaster, he was gaining some momentum. He was running an old fashioned, ground level campaign. He was showing up at sidewalk chats. He was talking to local reporters. He was doing a lot of the things that people have remembered him for for the past 30 years.

But then, when he showed up on national TV again, from the people I have talked to, they say it sort of reminded them once again of the Levy affair, and his response to it, and his inability to answer certain questions about the case. And he lost whatever momentum he had. So he went from being about 15 points behind, which is still quite large, to being 22 points behind, according to this poll that Cardoza took.

WHITFIELD: Well, Bill, Dennis Cardoza is apparently in the lead in terms of the polls. You know, his campaign folks are saying, you know, it is a matter of money. He has been the one who has been out there campaigning and publicly attending fund-raising. He's been getting the money. Condit hasn't. Is this going to come down to who has the most money? Or it is a fact that one of Condit's -- or his son said that it's a matter of record, not money?

SCHNEIDER: It's not a matter of either. It's a matter of the fact that congressman, Gary Condit, embarrassed the district. There's a reason why he can't raise any money. Incumbents are usually good at raising money. People want to put a bet on them. They overwhelmingly get reelected. Look, what is the reelect rate for incumbents who run for reelection? Something like 95 percent typically in House races. The reason he can't raise money is that people think he is a loser, and the fact that he has no money makes that much more likely.

WHITFIELD: There still seems, Bill, to be some folks who are hard-line Condit fans, and those are some of the political action committees linked to the banking industry and even agriculture. Who are, specifically, these people, these lobbyists who are still kind of behind of Condit and why, when the majority of the constituents don't seem to be?

SCHNEIDER: Well, there aren't many of them. I think Mr. Salladay may have more information on that. There aren't many of them. My guess is they have historic ties to him. You know, that district used to be known as Condit country. It got redesigned a little bit in redistricting. Some of the constituents who are supporting Gary Condit sort of take his side in a fight against the national media. He has tried to make that the issue. It's him against the outside media from Washington and New York, Connie Chung and people like that who are out to torment him. And some people think they are sticking up for the district, but there aren't many.

WHITFIELD: So, Robert, maybe you are in a better position to answer that. Who are some of these folks, these lobbyists that are still kind of standing by Condit, when the majority of the constituents say we are backing off, we are staying far away from him at this point?

SALLADAY: Right. Well, one thing you have to be a little bit careful of is that in polls, people may be giving socially acceptable -- what's called socially acceptable answers to pollsters. In other words, if a stranger calls you up and says are you going vote for Gary Condit? Well, this is a man who has basically been shellacked by the media for the past eight months. You are probably going to say no.

With that said, he does have a very small core group of supporters, who believe his argument that the media is sort of this totalitarian state that has forced him over the past eight years (sic) to prove a negative, do something that is virtually impossible, prove that he didn't kill or kidnap Chandra Levy, even though there is no evidence that he did.

You can tell in recent days that his anger has grown more and more intense against the media, and it is also a sign that he may think that he is going to lose. When a candidate invariably turns his attention to the media and starts blaming the media, that's usually a sign that they think hope is lost.

WHITFIELD: All right, gentlemen, I am going to have you stick around for a moment, because we've to take a break. We are going to have more of California politics when we come right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WHITFIELD: Welcome back. We are doing to continue our conversation about Tuesday's primary in California. Gary Condit, up for re-election, or at least this time he's trying to get the Democratic nomination with the primary taking place.

Bill Schneider and Robert Salladay -- thanks again for joining us and continuing this conversation.

Bill, let me start with you on this. Are the Washington politicos encouraging or intensifying their efforts to encourage Gary Condit to just let it go? It's -- you know, since the polls seem to be in favor of Dennis Cardoza, the assemblyman who seems to be the top competitor.

SCHNEIDER: Look, Mr. Condit astonished Washington observers and politicos by running in the first place. They said, what does he think he is doing? They never understood why he was running. There are all kinds of theories out there about raising money and maybe preparing grounds for a lawsuit against media organizations, like the "National Enquirer," claiming that they kept him from continuing his career. They were astonished that he is running. They would be even more astonished if he won.

WHITFIELD: And, Robert, are his constituents saying in his district, let it go?

SALLADAY: I think that a lot of people are looking to the last congressman in the district, the man that Gary Condit replaced. His name was Tony Coelho, a name well known in Washington circles. Tony Coelho resigned in disgrace in 1989 before facing a possible ethics probe in Congress over a loan he had received from a junk bond trader. He was subsequently exonerated by the Justice Department and rehabilitated his career. He is now endowing chairs at a new University of California campus. A lot of people in the district and Coelho himself say Condit long ago should have done what he did, and that is resign to spare the district of the responsibility of personally rehabilitating Condit's career. It is now a personal thing in the district, and they think that's wrong.

WHITFIELD: So quickly, Robert...

SCHNEIDER: And by the way...

WHITFIELD: Robert, your prediction? What do you think is going to happen on Tuesday?

SALLADAY: Well, I think Condit is going to -- or Cardoza, rather, is going to walk away with it.

WHITFIELD: Bill?

SCHNEIDER: I agree with that. And by the way, Toney Coelho, the former congressman, has endorsed Dennis Cardoza.

SALLADAY: That's correct. Yes.

WHITFIELD: All right. Thanks very much -- Bill Schneider, our own CNN political analyst out of Washington and Robert Salladay with the "San Francisco Chronicle" in Sacramento you are this afternoon -- thanks so much both of you for joining us.

SALLADAY: Thank you.

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