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CNN Live Today

Interview With Geoffrey Kemp

Aired April 05, 2002 - 14:40   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Middle East observers say bad blood between Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat, dating back at least to 1982 complicates the current crisis. We've just been talking about that with a former congressman, Wayne Owens, who visited with both parties a couple of weeks ago.

Well, Geoffrey Kemp is director of regional strategic programs at the Nixon center. He was in fact, President Reagan's special assistant for national security affairs. And today he joins us from Washington. Thanks so much for joining us. Good to see you, Mr. Kemp.

GEOFFREY KEMP, FMR. SPECIAL ASST. TO PRESIDENT REAGAN: Thank you.

LIN: All right, when we talk about bad blood, I think it pretty much came out. I think it was a week or two ago when Ariel Sharon said publicly he wished he had killed Yasser Arafat back in 1982. The United States now expects these two men to make a peace agreement, at least a cease-fire. What are the odds of that?

KEMP: I think the chances of a cease-fire are much better than a peace agreement. These men are not going to make peace with each other because they do not trust each other. From the very beginning, Sharon has regarded Arafat as a terrorist, hell-bent on destroying the state of Israel, incrementally. That's why he launched a war into Lebanon in June of 1982, and that's why Arafat had to flee Lebanon two months later for Tunisia.

Arafat, on the other hand, simply doesn't believe Sharon is capable of granting the Palestinians a viable state. Arafat believes that Sharon wants to expand the settlement program which he started, so that ultimately you end up with nothing but cantonments, or bantossans (ph), as they call them -- little tiny enclaves of Palestinian communities, surrounded by Israeli highways and settlements.

So they don't trust each other. They hate each other. The bad blood goes back even before 1982. The most we can expect is that they'll stop shooting at each other.

LIN: And yet Ariel Sharon is a man that the Palestinians refer to as the butcher of Beirut. You talk about what happened back in the early '80s. I mean, he's accused -- the Palestinians want to see this man tried for war crimes.

KEMP: They certainly do. And you know, it was not just the Palestinians. Most of the Arab world and quite a few Europeans would like to see him tried. The difference was, you see, in 1982, when Sharon and Begin, who were then running the Israeli government, invaded, it was extremely unpopular within Israel itself. There were huge demonstrations in Tel Aviv against the war.

This time Sharon does have the backing of most Israelis for this particular operation. Now, if it goes for more weeks, and if there are more killed, then this could change. But Sharon is now acting as he did not have in 1982, with the full backing of a cabinet and the full backing of the Israeli people.

LIN: And an election is coming up, right? And we're seeing more of Benjamin Netanyahu speaking out on this matter. How does that dynamic cut into what's happening between Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon then?

KEMP: Well, of course, Arafat has to calculate that if Sharon goes, he's likely to be replaced by Netanyahu, who's made it very clear he won't deal with Arafat. He'll clear out the entire Palestinian Authority and reoccupy the entire West Bank. Now, whether he would be able do that or not is quite another matter, because I don't think the United States would permit him to.

But Arafat has to calculate that his best deal right now is Zinni, Colin Powell, the Tenet Plan and the Mitchell Plan, and hopefully enough American pressure on Sharon to make him go along with it. But you're not going to get that final peace settlement with these two gentlemen.

LIN: And you've got the Israeli military saying now, you know, we don't care that Colin Powell is coming next week. We plan on finishing our mission in the West Bank. And yet, we had a development today where two militant members of Hamas were killed during an Israeli incursion -- one of whom, the Israelis say, is responsible for the Passover Massacre.

Does this event then, at least set the stage, give the Israelis an out to pull out of the West Bank enough to relieve some pressure there so that diplomacy can start filling the gap?

KEMP: Well, you notice that Colin Powell is not going there tomorrow. So essentially, the administration is giving the Israelis three or four days to do exactly what they're doing today. Hopefully by the time Powell arrives in the region, he will have two things. He will have the Israelis willing now to withdraw, and he may have some support from the moderate Arab governments, notably Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, to essentially say to Arafat, look, you will have Arab backing if you comply with what we're asking you to comply with.

LIN: Geoffrey Kemp, a fascinating scenario about to unfold over the next week. Thank you very much for setting the stage there.

KEMP: Thank you. LIN: Giving us an insight into the mindset of two very powerful and stubborn men.

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