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CNN Live At Daybreak

Interview with Chemi Shalev on Second Powell-Arafat Meeting

Aired April 17, 2002 - 05:45   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: And we're standing by. I want to alert our viewers who may just be tuning in, we're standing by for a news conference. The Secretary of State of the United States Colin Powell will be going into a room at a hotel. You're looking at this live picture where journalists are beginning to gather. Soon this news conference will begin.

The Secretary of State will announce what, if anything, he's managed to achieve during the course of these meetings with the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat over the past few days. Just a while ago, a very short while ago, Powell wrapped up two hours of talks with Yasser Arafat in Ramallah, two hours of talks that do not, at least at this stage, appear to have resulted in much. But at the risk of jumping the gun, we'll wait for the Secretary of State to tell us officially what he managed to accomplish during this 10-day visit to this part of the world.

I want to bring back our political analyst Chemi Shalev. He is an Israeli reporter for the newspaper "Ma'arev (ph)." He joins me now live.

And I don't want to jump to any conclusions, Chemi, and you're a very, very precise journalist as well, but based on what we're hearing so far, the body language, the statements from Saeb Erakat the chief Palestinian negotiator, the statement from Yasser Arafat directly to reporters traveling with the Secretary of State in Ramallah at that besieged compound and the body language we saw from the Secretary of State, it does not appear to be very upbeat at all.

CHEMI SHALEV, POLITICAL ANALYST: It doesn't appear to be going well, and this would bear out the expectations that we had last night and this morning. I think that if we look at the statements that we've already had, I think one of the major problems was that Yasser Arafat expected the Americans to exert pressure on Prime Minister Ariel Sharon which would indeed bring about a withdrawal without delay of Israeli forces from the West Bank. And once that did not happen, I think Arafat thought, for his part, that it was impossible that he give his part of the bargain, meaning denounce violence and terrorism, while Israel did not do its part. So I think that Secretary Powell ran into a problem here of the chicken and the egg, who would go first. And in the end, he may have been left with nothing.

BLITZER: And if he does emerge with nothing, it will underscore the depth of the problem here because no one in the world is probably more respected than Colin Powell personally. No one comes with the clout, the cachet, the influence, the power that he brings to this part of the world. With all do respect to General Zinni and other mediators who have been involved in the past, they're not a Colin Powell representing the most important power in the world, the only superpower, the United States. And if he can't do it, if he can't get these two sides closer together, what does that say to you?

SHALEV: Well, first of all, I think it means that it's probably going to get worse again before it gets any better. Secondly, I do think that the Secretary Powell and perhaps the administration will now try to latch onto this conference idea that we spoke about before as giving some sort of political horizon and something that the two sides can engage in, perhaps talks in Washington or something of that nature. However, the situation in our area is that usually the facts on the ground are the ones that determine reality and there's going to be a vacuum created after the secretary leaves. And most likely, I'm sorry to say, we'll probably have a resumption of violence sooner or later and then things could get out of hand once again.

BLITZER: So when you say things will get worse, presumably, before they get better, how much worse can they get?

SHALEV: Well from a Palestinian point of view, they can get worse if indeed the Prime Minister decides that he's had enough of Yasser Arafat and he wants to expel him. That will create a lot of turbulence in the territories, a lot of turbulence in the Arab world and the American administration itself may find itself exactly in the same place that it was 10 days ago when there was rioting in the Arab world and the Arabs were clamoring for American intervention. And again, they may have to decide what to do in order to protect their strategic interests in the area.

BLITZER: And presumably worse for the Israelis as well if there's more suicide bombing attacks against this country.

SHALEV: Worse for the Israelis who although they have -- I mean they're hoping against hope that something will come out of Secretary Powell's mission. Presumably also worse for Prime Minister Sharon politically because now he's enjoying this lull where it seems that the military operation has indeed brought about at least a temporary end to the suicide bombings. But if they are renewed, then he will be under political pressure again and perhaps his standings will deteriorate again. And that's why I'm -- I think that the next reasonable step or the next logical step from his point of view if the suicide bombings resume is to try and get rid of Yasser Arafat.

BLITZER: All right, Chemi Shalev, thank you so much. Stand by.

Chemi Shalev, a reporter for the Israeli newspaper "Ma'arev," helping us try to better understand what's going on in this very complex, very dangerous situation here between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

We're standing by for a news conference, a news conference that Secretary of State Colin Powell will have here in Jerusalem explaining what, if anything, he's managed to accomplish during the course of his 10 days here in this part of the world. He's met now twice with Yasser Arafat. He's met three times with the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. And as you're looking at this live picture from the ballroom at the hotel where the Secretary of State is staying, journalists gathering, preparing for a news conference with the Secretary of State.

We'll take a quick break, but our special coverage of the crisis in the Middle East will continue.

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