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CNN Live Today

Professor Rob Sobhani Discusses Israel

Aired May 09, 2002 - 10:11   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Now we move on to the Middle East and the latest stalemate in the negotiations at the Church of the Nativity.

Our Carol Lin is on assignment in the Middle East. She joins with us the latest.

Carol, hello.

CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, Daryn.

I want to share with you an image behind me. It is literally Manger Square back there, and the picture has changed dramatically, both the diplomatic picture as well as the physical picture.

First, the physical picture. There you see a tank back in place as the Israeli armor moves in, as well as more weapons are back. Beyond them, the blue barricades there that the Israeli army has set up replacing the buses and tables of bottled water that were in place overnight as hopes were high that a deal was actually in place.

More on that deal in a moment, but apparently there is a snag. We are going to pan up now, so that you see a Minaret tower with loudspeakers on it. A couple of hours ago, the Israeli army made a point of using those loudspeakers to announce to the 100,000 residents here in Bethlehem that the curfew is once again in place. The army announced that the army is everywhere, and that whoever comes out of their house will be hurt, and whoever is suspected will be hurt. Suspected, I imagine, of terrorism activity.

Beyond that, you see a crane the army has set up. That crane has once again returned. It enables the army to keep the entire area and anybody moving around the church in their sights. What you don't see in this particular shot is an observation balloon that enables them as well to have a complete aerial over the church.

Now to the deal. Israel said that a deal had been in place all the way up until early this morning. Most of us went to bed last night believing that many of the people inside the church would actually be released. But according to Israel, there was a last- minute obstacle, and we did confirm this with one of the militants still inside the church.

Accordingly, Palestinian negotiators were making extra demands. What they wanted to have happen was that there would be an international guarantee of safety for the 13 militants who would remain inside the church while 26 militants would be shipped off to a Gaza jail under the Palestinian Authority and 85 civilians would be left free. The 13 militants left inside the church wanted to be sure and have an international guarantee that the Israeli army would not then storm the church once the civilians were set free.

So that is where it stands right now, Daryn. The curfew is back in place, and as you walk around the streets of Bethlehem, if you have ever been here, any tourists would tell you, it is jammed with people, you know, shop vendors and ordinary civilians and donkeys throughout the street. You could barely make your way down. It is absolutely silent in this holy city right now, and the picture behind me is almost identical to when this conflict, this standoff first started five weeks ago. We are back to point zero.

KAGAN: Carol, these 13 people who are staying inside, are their conditions going to change? Will they be given food and water while they try to figure out a country to send these people to? And also, I was surprised to learn that the 13 people inside will be allowed to keep their assault rifles.

LIN: Well, part of the negotiation has to do with how the gunmen inside would surrender their weapons and to whom. And clearly, one of the points of negotiation is whether there would be a third country to take these gunmen, where they would be exiled. There was discussion over the last five days that it would be Italy or Spain. Both countries have said they have either not been properly consulted or even asked to take these gunmen and under what conditions would they be jailed. Would they just simply be detained and all of the implications of that?

So there are a lot of unsettled issues. Whether there will be a third country, no takers right now. Who the gunmen will surrender their weapons to? Completely unresolved. So, Daryn, you have simply pointed out exactly where we stand. Much discussed in the last five weeks; nothing, absolutely nothing resolved.

KAGAN: Not exactly the kind of guys you want to invite to dinner. Not too surprising, Carol, but these are not people that are welcome in many places. Carol Lin in Bethlehem, thank you very much -- Leon.

LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, now let's get some perspective on all of this. And for that, we are joined by Rob Sobhani. He is a professor of politics at Georgetown University. He recently returned from the Middle East, where he was out there trying to gauge the anti- American sentiment and hopefully, Mr. Sobhani is going to share that with us this morning -- good to see you -- glad to have you with us this morning.

ROB SOBHANI, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: Good morning, Leon.

HARRIS: All right. Let's start off from the very top now. Anything surprising in what you have learned or heard on your trip overseas? SOBHANI: Not at all, Leon. It seems that the moderate leaders of the Arab world with whom I met with are very concerned that the anti-Americanism is going to affect them. And at the same time, they told me that they are with us in our war against terrorism, but they are frustrated with our diplomacy. They would like to see us put more pressure and be more engaged and try to get Prime Minister Sharon to see a vision for peace. That's the message they sent.

HARRIS: Yes, that's interesting. And if their focus is on the U.S. here, and we have got the situation that's happening in Bethlehem, and it's the European countries which have been backers of the Palestinians who are refusing to take these gunmen in.

SOBHANI: Well, absolutely. And that's because there is, without doubt, the element of terrorism, a terrorist infrastructure network in and around Bethlehem surrounding Mr. Arafat. But more broadly, Leon, the other message that I got from the region was this: There are countries in the region who don't want peace between Arabs and Israelis, specifically Iran, Iraq and Syria. Just a few days ago, the supreme leader of Iran went on national television calling for continuation of suicide bombing, and also -- quote -- "Get rid of the cancer called Israel."

HARRIS: Well, that shouldn't really surprise too many, who have been following the debate on this whole topic as it has unfolded for the past couple months. That's pretty much what we had been hearing from those corners. Let me ask you this, because in the wake now of that suicide bombing that happened and seemed to have been timed with those conversations that were taking place at that moment between President Bush and Prime Minister Sharon. If I lived in Gaza right now, what should I be doing? Should I be expecting or preparing right now for some sort of Israeli military onslaught?

SOBHANI: Prime Minister Sharon's mandate is to protect the people of Israel, and the previous incursion went after Arafat's infrastructure. I think the incursion that is about to happen in Gaza will go after Hamas infrastructure, because Sheikh Yassin, the spiritual leader of Hamas, has said categorically suicide bombings must continue. That civilian Israelis are targets. And therefore, Mr. Sharon has no choice but to go into Gaza and dismantle Hamas terrorist network.

HARRIS: All right. If that were to happen though, considering the PR debacle that happened that we just witnessed in Jenin and what we are watching happening right now in Bethlehem, how is that likely to play out both in the Arab world and in Jerusalem even? Or in Israel, I should say?

SOBHANI: That is where I think, Leon, American diplomacy has to come into play more forcefully. American diplomacy should continuously talk about a Palestinian state that's viable. We should set a time line for that Palestinian state, and also engage Israelis to present their vision of peace, because if Israel presents its vision of peace, then the Palestinians are put on notice. Here is our vision of peace, and we would like to you to stick to that timetable. I think these two tracks are not exclusive. HARRIS: Finally, Professor, I have to ask you this. Yesterday, we heard Yasser Arafat say for the first time for many of us, we heard him say explicitly in Arabic that these bombings are to stop. And that they are counter -- they basically, you know, contravene what it is they are trying to succeed in terms of like establishing the Palestinian Authority and establish the Palestinian state. Does that do anything? Is that message effective at all in changing any minds there in the Arab world that you traveled?

SOBHANI: Well, I am afraid, Leon, not. I think the terrorism goes beyond Arafat. It goes to groups like Hezbollah, Islamic jihad and Hamas. They are dedicated to the destruction of the state of Israel, and they are funded by outside powers. Arafat has little control over them unfortunately, and their agenda, unfortunately, is to Islamize the Palestinian conflict. That's the biggest danger facing America right now.

HARRIS: Boy, I wish I had more control of the time to talk to you some more about this. Professor Rob Sobhani, thank you very much. I always appreciate your insight.

SOBHANI: Thank you very much.

HARRIS: I sure hope to talk to you down the road -- take care.

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