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CNN Live Today

Interview with South Asia Expert Philip Oldenburg

Aired May 24, 2002 - 13:36   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Just as tensions seemed to be cooling ever so slightly in the region known as Kashmir, Pakistan today announced it plans to test-fire some nuclear missiles over the weekend. India says it is not particularly impressed by that announcement, but the fact remains the two nations are staring down each other's barrels -- gun barrels, that is, and the rest of the world is on edge, and that brings us to Philip Oldenburg, Associate Director of the Southern Asian Institute at Columbia University, and he joins us from New York.

Thanks for joining us.

PHILIP OLDENBURG, SOUTHERN ASIAN INSTITUTE, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY: You're welcome.

WHITFIELD: Well, India says this makes them nervous. No wonder, given the recent bout of tensions between Pakistan and India. But at the same time, Pakistan reminds them that they do this all the time. Both sides do their regular nuclear testing by giving each other 24 hours notice. So what's the problem here, you see?

OLDENBURG: It is not nuclear testing. It is missile testing. And it is important that they do give the notice and notice has been given. But I don't think it is at all routine, I think it is very much connected with the crisis at the present.

WHITFIELD: What do you see the impending danger to be?

OLDENBURG: The impending danger is -- the trouble is that it is an open-ended danger. If there is another terrorist attack in India, which provokes the Indians to -- into hot pursuit, which the Pakistanis then respond to, the danger is escalating right up to the ladder, and quite conceivably to the use of nuclear weapons.

WHITFIELD: And how much of a concern does it need to be, then, at this juncture that Pakistan says that, you know, it has things under control. It will be conducting this between Saturday and Tuesday. What if anything, or what kind of intervention could be taking place, if at all?

OLDENBURG: In terms of the missile tests, I don't think that there is any particular danger. That is just a signal, it is a signal to India and the world, it gets everyone's attention that people have to put pressure on both sides to stand down from the confrontation. WHITFIELD: Later on, in June or rather really just in a couple of weeks, it is likely that the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, will be heading that way to try and quiet tensions between India and Pakistan. What kind of progress do you suppose he could actually make?

OLDENBURG: Oh, I think he will add an important point to the pressure that's already been put by the representative, the European Union and the, I believe, the British foreign secretary is planning to go. Both sides need to have that kind of pressure continually put, and I think it's been clearly done -- helped in the past to diffuse the immediate danger of war.

WHITFIELD: When you have these missile tests that will be taking place starting this weekend, what exactly does that comprise? What would really happen?

OLDENBURG: I think it is just simply, they fire a missile from their test site and it lands in the desert somewhere, and they just make sure that the missiles are reliable. I'm a bit -- I mean, they don't have that many missiles and they are expensive items, so I don't expect them to do too many tests.

WHITFIELD: So what do you see the fear -- I mean, the obvious fear being that it isn't quite a test and that perhaps these missiles might be pointed in the wrong direction. What do you see the potential problems as being, or the worst case scenario?

OLDENBURG: Well, the worst case scenario is that both sides, being on such heightened alert and for so long now, ever since December, that somebody's nerve will snap. And as you say, the missile goes off in the wrong direction, people will see this as in fact a feint -- not just a test but an actual attack, and then respond accordingly.

But in fact, of course one missile is not going that kind of difference, and so I think the Indians are not likely to be provoked into a foolish action by even a missiles slightly off course.

WHITFIELD: All right. Philip Oldenburg, thank you very much from Columbia University, for joining us from New York today.

OLDENBURG: You're welcome.

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