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U.S. Looks at Evacuation Plans for Americans in India

Aired May 30, 2002 - 13:03   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Right now to the increasing tensions between India and Pakistan. That escalating crisis has U.S. officials looking at possible evacuation plans for thousands of Americans living in Pakistan and India.

Joining us live from New Delhi, American Robert Valente, a security evacuation consultant. Hello, Robert. Thanks for joining us. What have you heard of in terms of any sort of evacuation plan...

ROBERT VALENTE, EVACUATION CONSULTANT: My pleasure.

LIN: I apologize for the satellite delay here. What have you heard in terms of any evacuation plans, and if you yourself need to evacuate, how do you expect to get out? U.S. military or a commercial flight?

VALENTE: Well, our priority is always conducting an evacuation in what we consider a permissive environment. That would be an environment in which commercial airliners were still flying, and there were seats available, where there was not a military evacuation.

We are looking at a situation right now where there's -- calm situation in the major cities in India. The airports are all open with commercial flights operating freely. We've looked back at what occurred during prior tensions between India and Pakistan, and seen that for the most part, airports did remain open, and commercial carrying capacity remained at its pre-conflict levels.

There has, however, been a decrease in carrying capacity since the September 11 tragedy. United Airlines, among others, stopped coming out to New Delhi, so there are less seats available for people to evacuate on commercial flights.

And in addition to that, a lot of the diplomatic community and international community naturally leave India at this time of year, because of the end of the school year, people going on holidays, diplomatic and business transfer cycle starting up, so what we're expecting to see in the coming days is sort a natural peak of passenger travel, a posity (ph) of seats, and if there were to be an untoward situation that required a sudden evacuation of a large number of people, people that didn't have prior plans would be very hard- pressed to depart the country.

LIN: So, Mr. Valente, in plain-old English, if conventional warfare were to break out between Pakistan and India, if there was the threat of a nuclear strike, sounds like the 80,000 people in the region would not be able to get out safely unless they started leaving now.

VALENTE: Well, I think that every business and every individual living overseas has to establish decision points, and decide for themselves what their priority is in terms of the business community, where there is significant assets that need to be protected and attended to. The decision point might be quite a bit later. I think we have already seen the deferral of a lot of travel...

LIN: Mr. Valente, let me tap in your professional experience -- let me tap in on your professional -- would you recommend that people pack up their bags and make plans and start leaving now? Do you feel the situation is that hot?

VALENTE: Well, there's actually a couple parts to that question. Packing up the bags and making plans, we think, would be prudent at a time like this. However, getting on the plane and leaving is not something that we're recommending to people. We're not recommending -- at least my company is not recommending to our multi-national clients that business-essential travel be curtailed. However, we are advising several companies that have elected to cancel business travel that's already started in the country, in particular with people that are here on temporary assignments, aren't used to traveling overseas, that sort of person would need, probably, a little bit of extra time to get out of the country...

(CROSSTALK)

LIN: All right. Thank you. Thank you, Robert...

VALENTE: Also here in India, a large number of the -- sure.

LIN: Thank you very much. Robert Valente. Didn't mean to cut you off there. We just want to move on at this point to our senior White House correspondent, but I appreciate the time that you have given us. At least it doesn't seem like a situation is imminently dangerous for the tens of thousands of Americans in that region.

In the meantime, let's go to CNN's John King. He is at the White House, where President Bush has announced he is sending his defense secretary to the region in an effort to avert all-out war -- John.

JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Carol, good afternoon to you from the White House. The Rumsfeld mission comes in addition to a mission that will begin this week by Richard Armitage, he is Secretary of State Colin Powell's top deputy. Secretary Armitage will focus on diplomacy.

Secretary Rumsfeld will head to the region early next week. His mission a bit more complicated. He has to sit down with the leaders of India and Pakistan, his counterparts in those countries, and assess the state of military tensions, but also, and some would say even more urgently, to get a sense of how those tensions could impact the potential domino effect, if you will, on the U.S.-led campaign against terrorism. Pakistan says it is moving troops away from the Afghan border.

U.S. officials say that immediately causes no problems, but on the other side of the border in Afghanistan, some British troops already have been moved. Secretary Rumsfeld himself saying American troops may have to be moved as well. Of first and foremost concern to the president is whether those American civilians and the American military personnel, as you were just discussing, should be moved or evacuated. Mr. Bush says he is receiving constant advice from the two men on his side today at a cabinet meeting here at the White House. The secretary of state and the secretary of defense.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: ... secretary is -- both secretaries are analyzing what it would take to protect American lives if need be.

Secondly, we are making it very clear to both Pakistan and India that war will not serve their interests, and we're a part of a international coalition applying pressure to both parties.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Mr. Bush saying the pressure especially on President Musharraf of Pakistan right now. He says President Musharraf must keep a promise he made back in January to stopping incursions from the Pakistani side of the line of control in Kashmir over into the Indian territory, that disputed region, of course, the source of the conflict.

U.S. officials say they see some troubling developments. For one, U.S. officials saying India has loaded some conventional warheads on medium-range missiles. That missile group is capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The fear is that if India were to launch a missile, even with the conventional warhead on it, the Pakistani side might somehow miscalculate.

The Pentagon worried this situation is getting so tense it could spiral out of control, and the president voicing his determination. There are some who say perhaps al Qaeda is fomenting these tensions. Perhaps al Qaeda forces in Pakistan and Afghanistan could try to take advantage of the tensions, especially the movements of any Pakistani troops. Mr. Bush saying adjustments are being made, and he signaled his own resolve today to keep up the hunt for al Qaeda, even as he sends a new diplomatic team in to try to ease these tensions between India and Pakistan -- Carol.

LIN: John, it doesn't sound like the Bush administration, though, is going to the region with any comprehensive solutions. It just sounds like President Bush is allowing Pakistan and India to blow off some steam with his defense secretary.

KING: Well, certainly he is sending now two high-level officials, the deputy secretary of state, who has some experience in this region. Then the defense secretary to make clear, and we are told, yes, especially to the Pakistani side, that President Musharraf must keep his promise. He must instill some confidence in the Indian side that he will keep his promise, and that he will enforce the line of control on the Pakistan side. The message to the Indian government is to show restraint and to not do anything that could be viewed as provocative. These are countries with large conventional forces to begin with, and, of course, nuclear forces as well. As Secretary Rumsfeld just said at his briefing, sometimes when these things begin to escalate, they get out of control.

That is the profound worry of the Bush White House, not only when it comes to the safety of the American personnel and troops in the region, but certainly just because you have two large countries with nuclear capability right now in a very tense situation, so there will be pressure on Pakistan to do more to enforce its side of the line of control, and pressure on the Indian government to show restraint, but this administration saying right now, most of the pressure being applied to a man who for months has been a key ally in the war on terrorism, the Pakistani president, Pervez Musharraf.

LIN: Thank you very much, John King live at the White House.

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