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Pakistan Beefs Up Forces Near Indian Border; U.S. Urges Americans to Leave India

Aired May 31, 2002 - 16:00   ET


JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Judy Woodruff in Washington. Pakistan moves more troops away from its border with Afghanistan, to beef up forces along the increasingly tense border with India.

ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Andrea Koppel at the State Department. The U.S. government is urging Americans living in India to get out and is telling American government employees in India that they have the option to leave.

TOM MINTIER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Tom Mintier in Islamabad. I'll have the latest from the front lines, a village close to the line of control that was shelled heavily just two days ago.

KELLI ARENA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I'm Kelli Arena in Washington. FBI Director Robert Mueller's calls for Bureau reforms have not stopped critics from calling for Mueller to resign.

WOODRUFF: Thank you for joining us. New developments in Washington and Islamabad are the latest signs that years of tension between India and Pakistan have reached a alarming new levels. In Pakistan, a presidential spokesman told CNN today that his government is adding more troops to the hundreds of thousands already stationed along the border with India.

Here in Washington, the government issued a new advisory to U.S. citizens who could be in harm's way. Our coverage begins at the State Department with CNN's Andrea Koppel.

Andrea, this caution that they are issuing telling Americans who live in the region to leave, what is that about? What are they saying?

KOPPEL: Well, Judy, remember, Americans living in Pakistan were already ordered to leave a number of months ago. And now Americans -- there are about 60,000 Americans who live in India -- are being urged to leave. The U.S. government telling them that things obviously are very tense on the border.

And because there are so many living there, Judy, they'd rather be safe than sorry. Have them get out now before things get worse. And they're also telling nonessential American employees at the embassies that they can leave if they want to. They'll pay for them and their families to leave. WOODRUFF: Any positive signs at all from the region today?

KOPPEL: There is a very, very small silver lining. That is State Department officials are saying that there are now indications that Pakistan's president, Pervez Musharraf, has ordered the infiltrations to stop. They have yet to see signs that they have stopped, but they know the orders have gone out, Judy.

WOODRUFF: And, Andrea, we know that President Bush is asking the Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, we know that the Undersecretary of State Richard Armitage will be going to the region in the coming week. What is the administration hoping they'll be able to get done?

KOPPEL: Well, they obviously want to diffuse the crisis, Judy. They want to get President Musharraf to put his money where his mouth is. He's been saying for months that he will order and intends to stop infiltrations to the Indian side of Kashmir. And they want him to make it happen.

They're also going to lay out, both in Pakistan and in India, what the ramifications of the nuclear war would look at. They're really going to spell it out and show them the nitty gritty, just to make sure that both sides understand what the ramifications of this escalating any further would be.

WOODRUFF: Andrea Koppel reporting for us from the State Department, thanks.

For the latest on the situation inside India and Pakistan, we have two reporters monitoring developments on both sides of the border. Our Tom Mintier is covering the story in Islamabad while Satinder Bindra also joins us. He's in New Delhi. We start with the developments in Pakistan. CNN's Tom Mintier joins us now from Islamabad.

Tom, tell us what the situation is now, particularly with regard to Pakistani troops.

MINTIER: There is a great concern around the world that the fact that Pakistanis are moving their troops from the Afghan border, moving them towards India. Now, this was a story that started to come out yesterday. When Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was asked about the movement of troops, he said it was being studied but it had not happened yet.

About the same time his spokesman was saying the operation was indeed under way. They backtracked in the middle of the night on the story and then today confirmed it. But they would not say how many troops are moving or exactly how long this operation is going to take.

Now, this comes at a time when there is still shelling almost everyday along the line of control. A very, very tense situation here in Pakistan and in India.

WOODRUFF: Tom, President Bush yesterday again called on President Musharraf to live up to his word, to crack down on Pakistani extremists who are going across the border attacking Indian civilians. What is the sense there? Is President Musharraf doing what he said he would do -- and that is cracking down on this?

MINTIER: He says he is doing it. He says that there is no infiltration from the Pakistan side. Today I went up to the line of control and I asked the local military commander. And he gave me a rather cagey answer, saying that he had his eyes focused on the Indian troops across the line of control. He wasn't watching over his shoulder to see might be moving around. He also said that when the weather gets bad there and the monsoon rain starts, that they can't see any further than 20 yards. So a very cagey answer.

Also, the president of Pakistani in Kashmir today said that how can these infiltrators come across when nearly a million soldiers are along this line of control. How can they make it not only across from the Pakistani side, but in from the Indian side?

The terrain is extremely rugged. There are valleys and passes where people can slip in and out undetected. So it's very difficult it to secure this type of border, just as it is along the border with Afghanistan.

WOODRUFF: All right, CNN's Tom Mintier on the scene in Islamabad. Thank you, Tom.

SATINDER BINDRA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Judy, I'm talking to you from a New Delhi landmark called India Gate. Here in the evening thousands gather to enjoy the cool breeze. And today I'm detecting a tone of nervousness amongst the people here because of escalating tensions between India and Pakistan.

Also today, several Indian defense experts concurring with an earlier Washington report which suggests that Indian missiles have now been mated with conventional warheads. Indian experts also saying that these missiles have been moved to front line areas.

Now clearly what India is trying to signal to Pakistan, which recently tested three missiles of its own, is that if Pakistan should launch a military or missile strike against India, then India will retaliate with massive military force.

Given such a charged atmosphere, the U.S. is sending Defense Secretary Mr. Donald Rumsfeld to the region in a few days. And when he arrives here, the Indians say they will do some pretty blunt talking with him. They'll be telling him that unless Pakistan stops what India calls the infiltration of militants and terrorists from the Pakistani side of Kashmir into India, then India will continue to keep open its military options against its nuclear neighbor, Pakistan. Satinder Bindra, CNN, New Delhi.

WOODRUFF: Satinder and Tom Mintier talked to us just in the last few hours.

This latest showdown between India and Pakistan is in some ways an outgrowth of previous conflicts in the same region. Our senior analyst Bill Schneider joins me now with more on that -- Bill? WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Judy, what's behind the current crisis? Well, it's one of the oldest laws in history, the law of unintended consequences. It says that by solving one problem, you usually create another.


(voice-over): During the Cold War, the problem was Soviet expansionism. When the Soviets took over Afghanistan in 1979, the U.S. teamed up with the Pakistanis to drive them out. How? By arming and financing radical Islamic resistance fighters. It worked.

In 1989, the Soviets were driven out of Afghanistan. The U.S. promptly lost interest and Afghanistan fell into chaos. The unintended consequence: in 1996 the Taliban took over Afghanistan and provided a base for Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda terrorists.

After September 11th, the problem was terrorism. The U.S. again teamed up with Pakistan to overthrow the Taliban regime. It worked. The unintended consequence: al Qaeda terrorists have taken refuge in Pakistan, where they may have teamed up with local Islamic militants.

President Musharraf has committed Pakistan to work with the United States and wipe out foreign terrorists.

PRES. PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, PAKISTAN: I have conveyed that Pakistan is a victim of terrorism. We condemn terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.

SCHNEIDER: But the terrorists appear to have taken up the cause of liberating Muslim-dominated Kashmir from Indian control -- a cause that Pakistan supports. Many people suspect that al Qaeda is fomenting conflict between India and Pakistan to distract Pakistan from pursuing them. It may be working.

MUSHARRAF: That is where the forces from the west, and shifting our forces from the west to the east comes in.

SCHNEIDER: The U.S. wants to keep Pakistan focused on the antiterrorism campaign, which includes keeping terrorists out of Kashmir.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He must stop the incursions across the line of control. He must do so. He said he would do so.

SCHNEIDER: Because all of this could lead to an even worse unintended consequence: nuclear war between India and Pakistan.


If Pakistan loses a war with India and President Musharraf is overthrown, Islamic radicals could take over. And that could lead to the most disastrous unintended consequence of all, terrorists gaining access to nuclear weapons.

WOODRUFF: The unthinkable that we're starting to think about.


WOODRUFF: Bill Schneider, thanks.

Two unlikely travel partners and their trip through Africa when we return. I will go "On the Record" with U2's Bono, and why he thinks his trip through Africa with the treasury secretary will make a difference.

The FBI director and his critics will discuss a call for Robert Mueller to resign in our taking issue segment.

And later...


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Everything is hearsay. (UNINTELLIGIBLE) him taking money and putting it in his pocket. That's a lot of baloney.


WOODRUFF: The mayor of Providence, Rhode Island and the art of political survival.


WOODRUFF: U2 lead singer Bono has wrapped up his high profile tour of Africa. He and Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill got a firsthand glimpse of what life is like for some of the continent's poorest and sickest. Yesterday I talked with Bono "On the Record" and started by asking him why he believes the trip is a turning point.


BONO, SINGER: Well, it better represent some kind of turning point. I mean, Secretary O'Neill talks to us every day about results, getting measurable results for American taxpayers' dollars that go into aid. And you know, we've taken a lot of people out here and we're hoping for some results out of this trip. We have a president of the United States is interested in these issues of poverty and HIV/AIDS, with the Congress that's interested, both sides of the aisle.

This better be a turning point. And there are 3 million people here in Ethiopia that are HIV-positive. You walk through the streets here, it's like a war zone. It is impossible for me to describe to you from the swanky surroundings of the Sheraton here what life is like for these people.

And I just know that we can actually -- if we get this above politics and the usual argument, we can actually really make a difference to their lives.

WOODRUFF: But Secretary O'Neill, at the same time, is arguing that billions and billions of dollars have been wasted in Africa. That there are real limits to what money can do. Is he right? Or are there results that you see on the ground that he just doesn't see?

BONO: No, he is right about that. But that was the past. This is now. The genius of the millennium challenge account is that it rewards countries that get their acts together, that tackle corruption, where there is good leadership. And these are the brightest, if you like.

We've got to help them deal with the AIDS pandemic. They've got old debts that should be canceled. It's the start of the 21st century. It's time for a fresh start. And it's time also to give them, you know, fairer trade rules. It's not been a level playing field up to now.

WOODRUFF: Your trip comes at a time when Americans are being told once again by the Bush administration that the war on terror is the main priority in this country. How do you get Americans to pay more attention to Africa, when the concerns, the headlines, are all terrorism?

BONO: You know, the war against terror is bound up in the war against poverty. I didn't say that. Colin Powell said that. And he's right. And it's smart to actually spend some money preventing the fires rather than, you know, putting them out.

We've seen what happens if you abandon a country like Afghanistan. Russia and the United States abandoned Afghanistan. And those people and the chaos that their lives were easy prey to the kind of extremist Islamic groups that brought a kind of order, as perverted as that order was.

And we're arguing that Africa is at the moment, pro-American, for the most. You want to see the way the secretary of treasury has been welcomed as he goes around here. They don't play my records on the radio. It's not for me they're turning out in the streets.

But there's areas of Africa, and they're getting larger, that believe that the United States and Europe don't care about their condition. Don't care that there are 3 million HIV-positives here in Ethiopia. And that's a good message.

There were two things that happened on the week of September 11th. There was the shock of the attack on America. But then there was another shock with you there was another shock. An aftershock, if you like. When Americans watched -- and even Irish people watched -- as people were jumping up and down around the world, in Jakarta and everywhere else, as the Twin Towers turned to dust.

And I think that was a real moment in American history, in the history of the American psyche, if you like. Because Americans don't deserve to be the bad guy. They don't want to be the bad guy. They started saying, whatever our problem is, fix it, Congressman. Please fix that problem. Why do they think of us like this?

WOODRUFF: But finally, how do you make sure these things get done? This trip ends tomorrow. You go back to your world, Secretary O'Neill goes back to Washington. How do you make sure, how do you measure that any of what you want to get done, gets done?

BONO: Well, you have a real hard-headed guy running the U.S. Treasury. He's got a lot of energy. He gets up earlier than I do. He goes to bed later than I do. He's a maniac, actually.

And you know, he wears the suit and tie. The thing he's excited about most, in my opinion, is statistics. But he is determined, determined to get results here. And he has a passion for this. And I can see him be moved by the people that he is encountering every day now on our tour of this continent.

This is a continent in flames. And the international community is standing around with watering cans. I think with him, with support in Congress, as I say, on both sides of the aisle, and the president of the United States who asked him to go on the trip, who is interested in this, I really think this could be some kind of turning point.

And if people don't think there's a vote in this, they're wrong. You know, when John F. Kennedy said, you know, we're going to put a man on the moon, it's going to take a decade but by the end of it, we'll have a man on the moon. It wasn't like everybody was asking for this. That's real leadership.

They say that politics are the odds of the possible. But great men and great women are about the impossible. And that's who I'm working for right now. And I believe they're in Washington, on both sides of the aisle. And they can do this.

And the people that have been traveling around, we can't change the world. But we know who can. Thanks, Judy.


WOODRUFF: Bono and Secretary O'Neill left Africa together today. O'Neill is due to arrive in Washington after stopping in Ireland to drop off the rock star.

A prominent newspaper says the embattled FBI director should step down. When we come back, Robert Mueller may be feeling the heat but does he have enough allies in Washington to avoid getting burned?


WOODRUFF: Time now for a check of the INSIDE POLITICS "Newscycle." The Kashmir line of control remains the world's most volatile hot spot.

Today some Pakistani troops that have been patrolling the Afghan border were redeployed in preparation for a possible war with India. The U.S. is encouraging Americans living in India to leave the country.

Less than a day after their efforts were scuttled by a helicopter crash, rescuers in Oregon return to Mt. Hood today hoping to recover the body of a climber, one of three people killed in a fall into a crevasse. This time, the rescuers scaled the mountain on foot, battling icy conditions before retrieving the final body.

"The Wall Street Journal" says Fbi Director Robert Mueller should step down. In a lead editorial, the newspaper says his handling of recent controversies suggests that Mueller should step aside. CNN's Kelli Arena has more on Mueller's status.


ARENA (voice-over): It's getting personal. Instead of criticizing the Bureau, the darts are now being thrown at FBI Director Robert Mueller. "The Wall Street Journal" is calling for his resignation, suggesting he -- quote -- "isn't willing or able to change the FBI culture."

"The New York Times" called Mueller's blueprint for FBI reform -- quote -- "too timid to get the job done." But his bosses are unwavering in their support.

JOHN ASHCROFT, ATTORNEY GENERAL: He's grabbed the agency. He has begun to shift the culture. As we were talking earlier, he has established a reformation which will allow us to consolidate the terrorism information in Washington to see where these pieces fit together.

ARENA: Mueller's most public gaffe was in the early days after 9/11 when he said the Bureau had no warning that terrorists might be training at U.S. flight schools. Mueller said he had been on the job just a little more than a week, and did not know about information the FBI did have.

ROBERT MUELLER, FBI DIRECTOR: We must be open to new ideas, to criticism from within and from without, and to admitting and learning from our mistakes. I certainly do not have a monopoly on the right answers.

ARENA: Members of Congress seem willing for now to give Mueller time to carry out his proposed changes. Some suggest he has yet to make any tough choices.

SEN. CHARLES GRASSLEY (R-IA), JUDICIARY CMTE: Heads have to roll in a bureaucracy in order for a message to get through.

ARENA: While heads haven't exactly rolled, there has been a significant change in management at the Bureau. Since 9/11 there are new people on the job in at least 50 leadership positions and the anti-terror division has been completely overhauled.


Mueller faces some more tough questions when he goes before Congress in the next few weeks. How he fares will likely have a big impact on his credibility and perhaps his future -- Judy.

WOODRUFF: Kelli, Mueller is right. He was only on the job for a week before 9/11. So is he really that vulnerable for what happened in the immediate aftermath of that? ARENA: If you talk to the attorney general, no. His quote was, "not if I can help it," he's not going anywhere. But Congress has some real tough questions about his behavior post 9/11. He did misstep. He said some things that weren't exactly true. And that has some people troubled as to whether or not he can really take the reigns and dot job.

But right now, as I said, currently no one in Congress is calling for his resignation. The administration is solidly behind him. So I think until we start hearing from those people, he is OK.

WOODRUFF: All right. Kelli Arena, thanks very much. We appreciate it.

With us now, Bay Buchanan of American Cause and Ann Lewis. She's former counselor to President Clinton. Bay, what about this question about Robert Mueller? "The Wall Street Journal" says he should resign now.

BAY BUCHANAN, AMERICAN CAUSE: Judy, as an average citizen out there -- and I observed what he did last week -- I know he's fumbled a little bit since 9/11. But my concern is we have a new agency, a new focus, we have new agents coming in there. And last week he goes forward and said, as many did, it looks like we're going to have some attacks. We should be expecting these attacks and we're concerned about them.

But he took another step and he added, "and we cannot stop them." As an average American, I want to feel that this critical arm, the FBI, of our efforts to stop it, is there to stop them, and they're doing everything and they're encouraged and inspired by their leader. And we have a fellow at the top who I don't think is up to the job. I think he is rather defeated himself.

WOODRUFF: Ann Lewis?

ANN LEWIS, FMR. COUNSELOR TO PRESIDENT CLINTON: Well, I looked at that editorial in "The Wall Street Journal" and I though, you know, they made some very good points. But these are really points as to why we should have an independent commission and a thorough investigation.

The issue, as "The Wall Street Journal" said, and as Bay just said, is what does it take to deter attacks and how do we regain public confidence in the intelligence community? It's not about public scapegoating.

So I would be concerned that we're rushing too fast to point fingers at one individual, while we haven't yet had the thorough investigation we should have. And that's where we ought to be.

BUCHANAN: And my concern is, we are at war here. This is not time to just study it, the usual Washington decision. Move it over to another table, give someone else the responsibility. It is time to get some people in there who are very energized and recognize its focus, and recognize the emergency situation we have. We have the tools in this country. We have the resources. Let's pool them together and get the job done. And right now we have a fellow that appears to me to be a deer in the headlights. He's kind of stalled and uncertain about what to do next.

Their whole agency is browbeaten. They need to be lifted up. And I'm afraid that the director is in the same boat as the agency right now. And it's too critical to have this study.

LEWIS: No, I agree we have tools. And I agree we have the resources. And the question is: Are we using them properly? Again, a commission could and should do that. Yes, these are unusual circumstances.

And that's why I think the kind of commission we are talking about -- when you have a once-in-a-lifetime situation like 9/11, as we have had, this is not time for business as usual. And it is not time for the usual Washington blame game. This is not just about one individual.

WOODRUFF: Let me ask you both about another angle of this. And that is the announcement by Mueller and Ashcroft yesterday that there would be new looser guidelines for FBI agents as they go about investigating possible terror incidents. Here is what the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Congressman James Sensenbrenner, had to say about that today, very critical. Let's listen.


REP. JAMES SENSENBRENNER (R), WISCONSIN: I get very, very queasy when federal law enforcement is effectively saying going back to the bad old days, when the FBI was spying on people like Martin Luther King. The Levi guidelines of 1976 were designed to prevent that from happening again. And nobody has told me that adherence to the Levi guidelines is what caused 9/11.


WOODRUFF: Bay, Congressman Sensenbrenner said that in an interview with "NOVAK, HUNT & SHIELDS" that was taped earlier today. But is the congressman right about these guidelines, Bay?

BUCHANAN: I think he is absolutely wrong. You know, it is those guidelines which resulted in the fact that we did not look into -- further into that 20th hijacker. We did not go into his Internet. We didn't want to. Because why? Well, we really didn't know that he, at this stage, was involved in anything illegal. And so we postponed the investigation.

We could have found out a lot of information, Judy. This is a time of war. It's time to say, look, forget the past guidelines. And the director's job here is to make certain they don't violate any -- unnecessarily violate any civil rights out there, to go within the law. But there is no excuse for an FBI not being able to start looking at everything they feel is necessary to get on top of these terrorist attacks, which are imminent, we are told. WOODRUFF: Ann?

LEWIS: Well, you know, I take seriously when you have that kind of bipartisan warning from both Congressman Sensenbrenner, the chairman, and then from John Conyers, the ranking member of House Judiciary. It isn't that often we have that level of bipartisan cooperation. So, I think it is worth all of us listening to it seriously.

But, no, I don't know that the Levi guidelines are why a lawyer in the FBI office said, "No, we should not go further with the 20th hijacker." In fact, again, I'm going to come back and say, those are the kinds of questions we should have answered. Why was that request to go into Moussaoui's hard drive, to go into his computer, why was it stopped?

I have never heard that that's because there were rules in hand. I think that was a judgment call. And I think, again, those are the kinds of questions that ought to be answered. That's why we think we should have more of an independent commission.

BUCHANAN: Can you imagine -- we are in a time of war. It just seems to me that everyone is not recognizing. What we heard last week from our leaders is that the terrorist attacks are imminent, that we should expect more. And you're going tie the hands of our law enforcement officers. I say give them anything they feel they legitimately need. Keep close watch on them. Have responsible people making certain they don't go overboard here. And if they do, then it is going to be the end of the FBI entirely. It is time to give them what they need to get this job done and start supporting our law enforcement officers to protect our lives.

LEWIS: But I think the key word is responsible people and public confidence. And that's the direction we have got to go.

BUCHANAN: I have the confidence in the agents.

WOODRUFF: We are going to have to leave it there. Ann Lewis, Bay Buchanan, great to see you both. We appreciate it.

BUCHANAN: Thank you, Judy.

WOODRUFF: Have a good weekend.

LEWIS: Same to you.

WOODRUFF: Don't forget INSIDE POLITICS on the web. It's where you can send us your ideas and your opinions about what you're seeing on the program. It is all at

"Inside Buzz" on next week's hot primary race is next: the favorites, the dark horses, and one candidate who says he doesn't need friends in high places.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) WOODRUFF: There are several states holding primary elections next Tuesday. And there are some intriguing match-ups. We asked Amy Walter of "The Cook Political Report" to give us a preview of some interesting House races.


AMY WALTER, "THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT": Well, in South Dakota, it's an open congressional race. And you've got two very competitive primaries. On the Democratic side, the two front-runners there: Stephanie Herseth, who's a young attorney, comes from a prominent political family; and Rick Weiland, who was a '96 nominee, lost the race last time around.

On the Republican side, you have Larry Pressler, former United States senator. He's facing up against Bill Janklow, who is the sitting governor. Now, it's not often that you see a governor decide to go jump into a House race.

But the reason is much more personal than it is political. Janklow really doesn't want to see Pressler win the seat. So, he decided the best way to prevent that was to run himself. He's favored in the primary. And he'd be favored in November as well.

In Iowa, in the sprawling 5th District in the West, you have a very competitive Republican primary. No one candidate has been able to break out of the pack there for candidates running. Why is that important? Well, Iowa has this quirky little law that says, if you don't win at least 35 percent of the vote in the primary, then it goes to a convention. And you have 550 delegates go and pick your nominee.

Now, this is also significant because this is such a heavily Republican district, which means that whoever gets chosen then would most likely be the congressman from this district. So, it puts a whole lot of pressure on just 550 folks sitting out in Iowa at a convention. At the convention, you're going to see the most conservative candidate have an advantage here.

So, we have two conservative candidates: Steve King, who has gotten the endorsements from some conservative luminaries, like Gary Bauer and Steve Forbes; and John Redwine, also a state legislator, who has been working in the legislature to push a lot of pro-life legislation through. Down in Mobile, Alabama, there's a very competitive Republican primary for the seat of Sonny Callahan, a longtime congressman, who is retiring.

Now, in these competitive primaries, in a district that is so heavily Republican, you don't see Washington insiders and PACs and those sorts of folks jump in, because it's really easy to pick the wrong horse. And they don't want to eat crow here.

But you've seen a lot of Washington money flow into this state. And the reason is that you have two candidates running here who have really powerful bosses. One, Joe Bonner, is the chief of staff for the retiring Congressman Callahan. The other is Tom Young. He's the chief of staff for Senator Richard Shelby. Now, these two have been getting a ton of money from Washington insiders who want to curry favor with their old bosses, as well as make sure that they are nice to the...


... how they can play off of this. One candidate, as a matter of fact, is running an ad that shows a picture of he sitting with Dick Cheney.


CHRIS PRINGLE (R), ALABAMA CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: See, that's the vice president there to the right.


WALTER: And then throwing that picture off to the side and saying: "You know what? It doesn't really matter what politicians you know. It is more important that you know the district."


WOODRUFF: Amy Walter with "The Cook Political Report."

The New Hampshire Democratic Party holds its convention this weekend. And while none of the potential 2004 contenders will be there, they are sending surrogates in their place. Representatives for John Edwards, John Kerry, Joe Lieberman and Al Gore will be there, as well as envoys for Tom Daschle and Dick Gephardt. And their representatives will conduct so-called breakout sessions for state activists on topics like voter turnout.

We stay in New Hampshire as we sample the Friday "Campaign News Daily": Tipper Gore is in Concord this evening to raise money for state House Democrats. The event costs $50 a person. It is the first gathering to featuring the spouse of a 2004 contender.

Also tonight, in Boston, EPA Director Christie Whitman is raising money for New Hampshire Republican Senator Bob Smith. Smith's campaign is billing Whitman's appearance as evidence that the White House backs Smith against his primary challenger, GOP Congressman John Sununu.

Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle plans to add the title author to his resume. Daschle's attorney says the senator will share his thoughts about the 2000 election, his rise to majority leader, and the war on terror. Publication is set for late next year. Proceeds will go to charity.

Well, when it comes to America's political landscape, states that look blue on the electoral map can suddenly seem red after the midterm elections, and vice-versa. Jeff Greenfield will explain when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) WOODRUFF: Our Jeff Greenfield joins us now with some thoughts on the midterm elections this November. Jeff, all right, we're hearing a good bit about the outcome in the fall being affected by whether these candidates are from the so-called red states or blue states, those that went for Bush or Gore in 2000. Is this a helpful way of looking at these races?

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Largely not, actually, I think. That famous map from 2000 was a striking way to capture that election: Gore strong on the coasts and in cities and university towns; Bush taking the Heartland.

But it seems to be overwhelmingly meaningless when you look at Senate and especially governor's races. Let's take a look. You cannot find two redder states than the Dakotas. Democrats have lost both of these states in every presidential election since 1964. But both of them have two Democratic senators. In fact, North Dakota hasn't sent a Republican to the Senate since 1980. Now look at the other side: Maine. It has gone Democratic in the last three presidential elections. It has two Republican senators. Louisiana: solidly red in four out of the last six presidential elections, two Democratic senators. And you could just keep going that way in the Senate.

WOODRUFF: So, if it is true with the Senate, Jeff, then it is more striking with governors?

GREENFIELD: I think so, because they are even more locally based. In 1992 and 1996, Clinton carried New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Two years later, all of those states elected or reelected Republican governors. And two years after that, Gore carried them all.

Now, by contrast, in the South, George W. Bush carried Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, all by healthy margins. What do they have in common? Every one of those states now has a Democratic governor.

WOODRUFF: So, then, why all this red-blue analysis?

GREENFIELD: Well, apart the journalistic impulse to try to find some scientific way to look at these elections, I also think it is function of September 11, the idea that President Bush has a lot more stature and a lot higher job-approval ratings.

But, if you are looking for history to tell you when a president made a big difference, you have to look at 1980, when the Reagan landslide swept in a dozen new Republican senators. Or 1994, you have to say there an anti-Clinton feeling swept the Democrats out of control of Congress.

So, yes, it's possible that a nationalized midterm election could develop later this year. All I'm trying to point out is that this red- and-blue-state analysis is really telling us almost nothing about what is likely to happen in the midterm elections this November.

WOODRUFF: But you're right. Journalists like patterns, don't we?

GREENFIELD: You betcha.

WOODRUFF: Jeff Greenfield, thanks. We'll see you Monday. Appreciate it.

A man who has been credited for bringing prominence back to Providence is now fighting two difficult battles. When we come back: the story of Mayor Buddy Cianci: his legal troubles and his bid for reelection.


WOODRUFF: For several weeks now, the head of Rhode Island's largest city has been living a double life of sorts. On one hand, Buddy Cianci is the popular mayor campaigning for reelection. On the other, he is the courtroom defendant who is facing federal corruption charges. CNN's Bill Delaney has more.


BILL DELANEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): After another working breakfast hard by the luxury hotel suite he calls home, Providence Rhode Island Mayor Buddy Cianci facing another hard day in federal court, facing hard time, 29 counts: racketeering, conspiracy, extortion, money laundering, mail fraud, witness tampering. But the beat goes on.

BUDDY CIANCI, MAYOR OF PROVIDENCE: You know, everything in life passes. And you have to adjust to it. And I've tried to adjust to that. And I've got a good staff. And we haven't skipped many beats.

DELANEY: Including most every night beating the bushes for votes, running and very much in the running for reelection to a seventh term.

(on camera): What does help Mayor Buddy Cianci keep his spirits up: how his polls stay up, too. A lot of politicians without a daily appointment in federal court would be grateful for approval ratings, according to more than one recent poll, above 60 percent.

(voice-over): Reluctance in Providence to give up on a mayor who's even got his own spaghetti sauce.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Everything is hearsay. There is nothing of him taking money or putting it in his pocket. That's a lot of baloney.

CIANCI: Prosecutors say, no, they've got a meaty case, like a city official caught on tape by an undercover FBI witness, saying "Give him" -- meaning the mayor -- "$500 in an envelope. That's the way the game is played. Say it's for the campaign." Charlie Hall, though, a local raconteur, who is also a courtroom artist at the trial, points out:

CHARLES HALL, COURTROOM ARTIST: Nothing's really been proven yet. There's enough reasonable doubt for me. DELANEY: And no doubt, say Hall and many others in Providence, that under Cianci, a long, down-at-the-heels town got new jobs, culture, sparkle.

HALL: Is he a crook? Well, I don't know. If he's a crook, he's a good crook, because he has done a pretty good job with the city of Providence.

DELANEY: Making the place look good, too, locals say, by even recently attending Liza Minnelli's wedding.

MIKE STANTON, "PROVIDENCE JOURNAL": But he's really raised the self-esteem.

DELANEY: Mike Stanton is writing a book about Buddy, already optioned by Robert De Niro's production company.

STANTON: I think the city has taken on a national profile. The people who enjoy that newfound image don't like to think of the darker side rearing its head and possibly dragging it down.

DELANEY: For now, anyway, Buddy Cianci's head is held high.

CIANCI: I might take a week off after this trial, but I'll stay in Rhode Island.

DELANEY: Unless, of course, he's somewhere else up the river.

Bill Delaney, CNN, Providence.


WOODRUFF: Bill Schneider's "Play of the Week" is just ahead, but first let's look at what's coming up on "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS" -- Wolf.

WOLF BLITZER, "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS": Thank you very much, Judy.

With nuclear tensions escalating between India and Pakistan, our Jamie McIntyre reports on the Pentagon's worst-case nightmare. We'll also follow up on that botched rescue operation on Mount Hood in Oregon. And I'll talk with the television helicopter reporter who covered the crash live. And I will also talk live with a 17-year old Kmart clerk who has become a hero.

It's all coming up right at the top of the hour, right after INSIDE POLITICS.


WOODRUFF: "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS" comes up in just a few minutes, but, of course, we always end our Friday program with Bill Schneider's "Political Play of the Week" -- Bill.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Judy, let's talk about the cleanup of the World Trade Center, which ended this week. The statistics are staggering. It took three million man hours of labor, using 200 to 300 union workers at a time -- carpenters, dock workers, Teamsters, and iron workers -- working 24 hours a day to remove 1.6 million tons of debris.

But here's the most staggering statistic: The cleanup was expected to cost $7 billion. The final cost? Less than $1 billion. Moreover, a task that was originally estimated to take a year ended up getting done in just 8 1/2 months. Now, when is the last time you heard of a government project costing less money and taking less time than the original estimate?

The workers and the city of New York have made a political statement: "This will not break us. We will go on as before." Ladies and gentlemen, we leave you with the "Political Play of the Week."


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Two planes apparently crashed into each tower of the World Trade Center this morning.



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