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State Department Urges Americans to Leave India

Aired May 31, 2002 - 14:06   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Amid heightened tensions now between India and Pakistan, the State Dept. is urging Americans to leave India and authorizes a voluntary departure of non-essential embassy personnel. The State Dept. warning reads as such: "Tensions have risen to serious levels and the risk of intensified military hostilities between India and Pakistan cannot be ruled out." The warning refers to military movements along the line of control between Pakistan and Indian-controlled Kashmir, where hundreds of thousands of troops are already amassed.

If an all-out nuclear war broke out between the rival nations, the Pentagon estimates as many as 17 million people would be killed or injured just in the first weeks of the battle.

CNN's senior Pentagon correspondent Jamie McIntyre with more on this frightening scenario from Washington -- Jamie.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SENIOR PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Carol, the other day Def. Sect. Donald Rumsfeld, when asked what would happen in the event of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan, in a classic understatement said, "It would be bad. Really bad."

Well, how bad will it be? Believe it or not, there are people at the Pentagon who think about these things, and the defense intelligence agency has come up with a guesstimate of a worse-case scenario of an all-out nuclear war between India and Pakistan. They estimate that between nine and 12 million people would be killed, assuming that both sides got off all of their nuclear weapons. Another two to five million injured, for a total casualty count, just in the first weeks, of between 11 and 17 million people, and that doesn't even count people who would die later from radiation sickness or from starvation, or even from the fireball and the fires that might result from a nuclear exchange.

Now, both India and Pakistan have missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. it is generally believed that Pakistan has somewhere between 20 and 50 nuclear warheads; India maybe 100 to 150. The DIA won't release its estimates, although it says it's more like the low dozens for both sides. Def. Sect. Donald Rumsfeld, of course, is going to be traveling to both countries next week, and at his briefing yesterday he hinted that he might share some of this intelligence of how devastating an attack could be with both countries.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD RUMSFELD, U.S. SECT. OF DEFENSE: We've done a lot of thinking about that here in this building, and in the United States government, having had nuclear weapons for, what, 55, 57, 58 years now. So we've given a lot of thought to their use and what the effects are, what the immediate effects are, what the lingering effects are, and what the secondary effects can be with respect to other problems.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MCINTYRE: The Pentagon officials stress that these kinds of estimates are not meant to really be accurate in the sense that, one, it's obvious that any sort of nuclear exchange would be catastrophic. That millions of people would die. But they do take into account all kinds of variables, including whether the bombs detonate in the air or on the ground. On the ground, they have more of an effect. Whether both sides will be able to deliver their weapons.

They actually do computer modeling on this, but the object is to show how terrible it would be in order to try to convince both sides that it's not a real option -- Carol.

LIN: Jamie, maybe I've watched too many "Star Wars" movies in my time, but does the United States have the physical capability or the technology to stop a nuclear strike as it is in progress at any point? If it is that the United States sees that India re-mans these medium- range missiles with nuclear warheads, can the United States physically stop that missile from firing?

MCINTYRE: Well, the United States has the ability to tell what is happening. In fact, the United States might be the first to know, even before even side knows, because of its sophisticated satellite technology. But the short answer is no. It has no way to stop a missile armed with a nuclear warhead. That's one of the reasons why the Bush administration wants to put so much money into missile defense. And those missile defenses include a wide range of weapons.

One of them, for instance, the airborne laser, which is a giant laser mounted on a 747. In theory, if that were in operation, it could be flying in the area between India and Pakistan and actually shoot down a missile in the boost phase, before it could get to the other side, assuming they could confirm it was a nuclear warhead. So in the future, the United States might have that technology. Today it doesn't.

LIN: All right. Thank you very much. Jamie McIntyre, live at the Pentagon.

So let's figure out here how it got to this brink between Pakistan and India. It centers on a region known as Kashmir. And CNN's national correspondent Bob Franken has been doing a lot of research as to how this brinkmanship all came about. Bob, when we talk about Kashmir, it's a small area. Only seven million people who live in this region. Why is it so valuable to both Pakistan and India? BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, among other things, national pride. Another reason is that it's a very fertile area that would be valuable. But there's also the underlying question about religious antagonisms, religious competition that long predates the creation of India and then Pakistan.

Kashmir, like Pakistan, is predominantly Muslim, but was turned over to a maharaja and India. That means that the Hindu-dominated India is running a country, or state, that is more Muslim than it is Hindu. That, of course, has caused antagonism and three wars. All three of those wars over Kashmir, which have not resolved the question, all three were fought before the two countries that are the antagonists had nuclear power. That's why the stakes have been raised so much.

LIN: Bob, how does this effect the United States war on terrorism in Afghanistan, then?

FRANKEN: Because Pakistan has been one of the strongest allies, for obvious reasons, with the United States. Pakistan has stationed troops along its border with Afghanistan, and that was hoping to stop the infiltration of al Qaeda and Taliban fighters who have been a danger to the United States, that might slip into Pakistan. Well, those troops, to a large amount, have been moved now, to fight the war on India. That means they're not available to protect the western flank.

LIN: So might this means that more United States troops would be sent to the region, to buffer up that border?

FRANKEN: Well, nobody is saying that, but there are just stakes all over the place, very high stakes, that have to be considered. That is why there is such a diplomatic effort going on around the world. The United States very much a part of that. They're going to be applying pressure to both sides. Pakistan is getting the bulk of it right now. But in non-diplomatic terms, with just about everybody's going to be doing with the two countries is knocking heads so they don't do something catastrophic.

LIN: Well, there you go. All right. Thank you very much. National correspondent Bob Franken, there.

Of course, the international community is growing pretty concerned over a possible war between India and Pakistan, and concern not only among diplomats but those in the corporate world. CNN's Ram Ramgopol reports from New Delhi.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RAM RAMGOPOL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Packed up and ready to go. Ana Siri (ph) is the wife of a South American diplomat. Now at the insistence of her husband, she's leaving New Delhi. Temporarily, she hopes, but one can never be sure, she says.

ANA SIRI, EXPATRIATE (through translator): After six years of living here, and hearing talk of a nuclear war, this is not good. That's why we want to see things from a distance. To go out and see how it develops.

RAMGOPOL: Diplomats are not the only ones concerned. India is an increasingly important business destination and a large number of multi-national companies have an established base here. Now, the corporate world is closely watching what happens in South Asia.

(on camera): In recent years, United States companies alone have invested billions of dollars in India. The hope is that the world's second most populous country will one day become a giant marketplace for American goods and services.

(voice-over): For now, though, the services that are in greatest demand are travel and security related. Risk management consultants say their phones have been ringing off the hook.

ROBERT VALENTE, SECURITY CONSULTANT: The only defense against a nuclear attack is not to be in the area. And I think that's prompted a lot of people to look at their evacuation plans, particularly foreigners.

RAMGOPOL: There are tens of thousands of Americans in South Asia, most of them in India. And any evacuation would likely require an airlift. While that possibility may seem remove, many expatriates, like Ana Siri, are leaving on regular flights. She's still not sure she's doing the right thing.

SIRI (through translator): I feel bad, because India has been part of my life for the past six years. It's a country that I love, that has given me so much. I am leaving, but I want to be here.

RAMGOPOL: Ana Siri says she will be back, she's just not sure when.

Ram Ramgopol, CNN, New Delhi.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

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