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CNN Sunday Morning

Al Qaeda Spokesman Says More Attacks on U.S. Planned

Aired June 23, 2002 - 07:02   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Now an in-depth look at our top story. The report that Osama bin Laden and most of his al Qaeda leaders have survived the war in Afghanistan. The remarks by Sulaiman Abu Ghaith seen here with bin Laden last October, were on audiotape that was aired on the Arabic al Jazeera TV network.

Abu Ghaith says, quoting here now: "I really want to ensure the Muslims that Sheikh Osama bin Laden is in good health. The American operation was not able to destroy the organization. The system is still there. Al Qaeda is not a fragile organization." He goes on to say, "Our martyrs are ready for operations against American and Jewish targets inside and outside. America should be prepared. It should be ready. We are coming to them where they never expected."

Well, is he alive? If so, then where is Osama bin Laden? Do the coalition forces in Afghanistan have any clues?

CNN's Nic Robertson is at the Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan with more from there. Nic, what is the latest on the hunt for Osama bin Laden?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Miles, the search still goes on. Operation Anaconda was perhaps one of the largest operations. But since then, the operation still goes on in eastern Afghanistan.

U.S. Special Forces working with British Royal Marines found about two truckloads of munitions over this weekend. It was in a small village about 12 miles north of the town of Khowst in eastern Afghanistan not far from the border with Pakistan.

They say the munitions were new; that they were in a compound there; that they were attracted to this compound, because they say people moving in it, and they saw antennary equipment, extensive antennary equipment above this compound.

When they went in, people in the compound were armed. Some of them were in uniform.

Now they say they've arrested, detained at least 10 of those people. They don't say if they're Taliban or al Qaeda or other Afghans at this time. But they do say that the find there, the weapons, is a significant find; perhaps in recent weeks and months, one of the more significant finds they've had. Miles, another interesting thing about that al Qaeda statement is there's no mention of Mohammad Atef. Now, coalition forces believe he was Osama bin Laden's military chief and they believe that he was killed in bombing north of Kabul on the 16th of November last year.

So perhaps significant, when al Qaeda in their statements say that 98 percent of the al Qaeda leadership is still in good shape. No records there of Osama bin Laden's military chief. Perhaps that is something significant. We can see no claim by them that he, that military chief, Mohammad Atef is still alive -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: CNN's Nic Robertson reporting from the Bagram Air Base.

Let's get some more analysis on all of this now. Kelly McCann is one of CNN's security analyst. He joins us now from Washington as he always does. Kelly, good to see you.

KELLY MCCANN, CNN SECURITY ANALYST: Hi Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right, what should that tell you? Is Osama bin Laden alive? Certainly an audiotape from a spokesman doesn't prove anything.

MCCANN: Not at all, and I'll just take this line-by-line a couple of things. Number one, it's pretentious because to think that the mass of Americans' signals intelligence capability, communications intelligence capability and electronics intelligence capability couldn't impair a basically informal military organization is ludicrous.

I mean to say that they're in full power and still operating at 98 percent with the pressure that we've got on them is ridiculous -- number one.

Number two, there's a lot of terror talk in here. He says, "we are coming to them where they never expected," then later in his statement: "In the time we choose and the place we choose and the method we choose." That's very atypical terror talk. In other words, having the omnipresent threat is sometimes as bad as the event itself. So again, fairly predictable.

He goes on to say our military and security systems are currently watching and investigating new targets different from the ones that are already targeted. That's an effort to authenticate and formalize what basically has always been irregular forces.

So there are some real problems with this statement. I have no doubt that they truly believe that their capability is lessened as well as we do. It's that he has to promote the feeling to the Muslim nations.

O'BRIEN: All right, and all of that is pretty obvious to this audience, I'm sure.

But let's talk for a moment about the structure of al Qaeda. How centralized is it? Is it the sort of thing with these distinct cells operating all over the world, but it sort of can go on even if the head of the snake had been cut off?

MCCANN: Sure. I mean, the financier part of it, because bin Laden was a very effective, and clever and ingenious businessman. I'm sure that he modeled his many businesses and basically created al Qaeda in that image. So their ability to import, export; their ability to use different kinds of funding; liquid funds, gold, things like that, of course, would be very difficult to control. So from that aspect, sure, the network could still very much work albeit at a lesser capability.

O'BRIEN: Well, now, let's talk about that lesser capability. What's your best guess? Let's assume for a moment that this spokesman's statement on tape is a bunch of nonsense, which is what my gut tells me. Could these disparate cells of al Qaeda, which surely still exist -- some of them sleepers, whatever you want to call them. Could they pull off a 9-11 scale attack?

MCCANN: Sure. I mean anybody could do anything anywhere if they have a few things present in their being, one of which is not caring. If they don't care whether they get caught or killed in the process, anybody could virtually decide to do something fairly traumatic and get it done.

So it goes then, too, the ability for people to be isolated, maintain a level of motivation without being monitored, or supervised or motivated from an external source, and follow through on something that sounded like a good plan then, but may not be such a great plan now. Those are more human issues than operational or tactful issues.

O'BRIEN: All right, one final question. You mentioned the prowess of the U.S. intelligence community as it relates to intercepting signals. Of course, we've been hearing all this past week about how they intercepted some signals prior to 9-11.

MCCANN: Right.

O'BRIEN: Didn't get processed through the system, didn't get translated, was never acted upon, was never actionable intelligence, the term that your community would use.

MCCANN: Right.

O'BRIEN: Are you convinced that they have awakened and are smelling the coffee right now?

MCCANN: I'm convinced that they weren't that bad then. The same thing happened in Beirut with the Marine barracks bombing. There were several indicators and it wasn't pieced together, but, Miles, it's analogist to the news industry. Out of the hundreds of stories you could run, somebody has to sort through them, collaborate it, substantiate it, which takes time, and then it becomes actionable.

Well the intelligence world is the same way. So albeit, yes, there are singular failures. The totality of the efforts of the NSA, the FBI, the CIA should be lauded because a lot of times you don't hear about the successes. O'BRIEN: All right, Kelly, before you get away -- Osama bin Laden dead?

MCCANN: Don't care. He is, again, the financier, and we can't vilify one person because regardless of what other things we achieve, Miles, in the face of 1.3 billion Muslims, you fail if you don't get him. So he is kind of a tertiary target.

O'BRIEN: All right, Kelly McCann, our security analyst. As always, good insights, we appreciate it.

MCCANN: Thanks, Miles.

O'BRIEN: And as always, CNN is way ahead in this story, the latest in al Qaeda.

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