Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Live Today

Discussion of Possible U.S. Attack on Iraq

Aired July 31, 2002 - 11:03   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Let's bring in our senior political analyst Bill Schneider. He's joining us now from Los Angeles. The political stakes are enormous right now, aren't they?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Absolutely. This could be the future of the Bush administration, the second Bush administration to deal with Iraq. And some people say, if this doesn't go well, it could be the end of this Bush administration.

BLITZER: What about the political debate on capitol hill? We've heard some of the greatest reservations about any early strike coming not necessarily from Democrats, but from some Republicans like Senator Chuck Hagel, a senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee from Nebraska, so this is not necessarily a political as far as the debate is concerned.

SCHNEIDER: It really isn't. It's different from the debate over the Persian Gulf War back in 1990 and '91, after Iraq seized Kuwait. Then the domestic consensus was divided. There was no consensus in the United States supporting the Persian Gulf War. The international consensus was very strong. Now in 2002, it's the opposite. There really is no international consensus supporting an American military action in Iraq. Other countries wonder what exactly was the provocation, mainly that so far allegations that they're discussing on the committee about weapons of mass destruction.

But the domestic consensus is very strong, and you're finding Democrats very careful about what they say. Most of them are saying they support the administration's goal of regime change, that is removing Saddam Hussein from power.

BLITZER: There was some very interesting testimony from some of the witnesses earlier this morning, Kadar Hanza (ph), a former Iraqi nuclear scientist who defected to the United States a few years ago, ambassador Richard Butler, the former U.N. weapon's inspector, Anthony Cortissman (ph), who's the fellow -- the senior research at CSIS, the Center for Strategic and International Studies here in Washington. All of them saying, suggesting that there is a clock ticking, that no one knows precisely what kind of weapons of mass destruction capability the Iraqis have.

Although there was a headline -- you probably saw in front page of "USA Today" saying there would be no so-called October surprise, a U.S. military strike, before the November mid-term congressional elections. How much do you think, Bill, the politics, the calendar, is having an effect on U.S. decision-making, as far as Iraq is concerned?

SCHNEIDER: Well, it always has an effect on decision making, unless there is a direct provocation. And in this case, there is a fairly narrow calendar. It has nothing to do with the weather. It has to do with politics in the United States. There's a mid-term election this November. Anything we did prior to the election has enormous political ramifications. And then of course these days, presidential campaigns get started well over a year before the actual vote. So the presidential campaign really gets started shortly after the midterm.

If you want to do something that is not completely involved in politics, the period after the mid-term election, for about six or eight months before the presidential election -- presidential campaign gets in full swing, that's the time when it's most politically opportune to act.

Bill Schneider, our senior political analyst, thanks for joining us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com