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CNN Live At Daybreak

Iraq Nuclear Dilemma Exposed

Aired September 09, 2002 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: An independent group that studies strategic issues worldwide, today, released a report on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
CNN senior international correspondent, Walter Rodgers, joins us live on the phone from London with the story -- Walter.

WALTER RODGERS, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol.

Britain's International Institute of Strategic Studies has concluded that Iraq does not now possess facilities to produce weapons-grade enriched uranium. That is, they can't make a bomb yet.

But it says Saddam Hussein could assemble a nuclear weapon in a matter of months by stealing or buying fissionable material on the black market, material which might be procured from one of the former Soviet Republics. Otherwise, it says, Saddam is five years away from making his own bomb. Allied strikes in the 1991 Gulf War devastated Iraq's nuclear program, according to the IISS, but it says Baghdad maintains a strong interest in acquiring nuclear weapons.

Saddam's more immediate weapons of mass destruction include chemical weapons, hundreds of tons of mustard gas, nerve gas agents, sarin and VX. These could be delivered in artillery shells, rockets or aerial bombs. But the IISS says the chemical weapons do not pose a decisive threat to military forces, who, presumably, would be protected by chemical weapons uniforms and armed with their security.

The Iraqi biological weapons arsenal, according to the private British think tank, retains perhaps thousands of liters of anthrax, and more biological agents could be produced in dual-use factories on very short notice. It is not known if Iraq has produced smallpox viruses, and the biological weapons threat is the lowest on the scale.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies report says Iraq is very short on missiles. It has an insignificant force, perhaps a dozen or so, but it warns a handful of missiles could have a serious political impact if aimed at Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia or Turkey. It notes Iraq also retains a small air force, which could deliver chemical or biological bombs to rear echelon areas.

It is clear Iraq retains its ambition to establish itself as a dominant regional power, but of the three weapons type -- chemical, biological or nuclear -- the latter, nuclear, remains the farthest from Saddam's grasp -- Carol.

COSTELLO: So, this is not something that Tony Blair or President Bush really wants to hear right now, is it?

RODGERS: Well, I'm not sure what they want to hear, but there is nothing in this report that we have seen which is terribly, terribly compelling as Mr. Bush and his administration would seem to suggest. That is to say, everything that this report has gathered together has been pretty well available to anyone who worked the intelligence circuit for some time now. And indeed, some of the estimates that they have come up with are lower than Israeli intelligence estimates that I have seen over the last several weeks -- Carol.

COSTELLO: All right, Walter Rodgers reporting live by phone from London this morning -- thank you for that.

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