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British Think Tank Releases Report on Iraq's Weapons

Aired September 09, 2002 - 11:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: The big buzz today is that report that is out of London on the potential nuclear threat from Iraq. Our senior international correspondent Walter Rodgers is in London with the details on that report -- Walter, hello.
WALTER RODGERS, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Daryn. The headline on the report is that Saddam Hussein wants the bombs, making a determined effort to acquire nuclear weapons. But the sub headline is important because it says, left to his own devices, he is at least five years away from acquiring a bomb. Years away.

Now, there is one way, according to this report, from the International Institute of Strategic Studies by which Saddam Hussein could come up with a short cut and acquire a nuclear warhead more quickly. That would be if he could buy enriched uranium -- that is weapons-grade uranium on the black market or perhaps steal it from one of the former Soviet republics. Under those circumstances, it is conceivable that Saddam Hussein could have a bomb within a matter of months.

However, the officials from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said they did not think that was a very high probability at this point.

The more immediate threat remains what we have always known, that Saddam Hussein has a substantial chemical and biological warfare weapons arsenal, and he has used them in the past -- Daryn.

KAGAN: Walter, what about delivery systems? Does the report go into that, not just what he might have, but actually getting the weapons to his intended targets?

RODGERS: Right. And that's very interesting because the report on Saddam's delivery systems does not help President Bush make his case. For example, it says he may have no more than a dozen long- range -- that is 650-kilometer rockets, the kind that he used in the Gulf War against Israel. Now these are a marginal threat to a country like Israel, which has an anti-ballistic missile system that can shoot these weapons down, Turkey, also Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. But far fewer delivery systems than Saddam had in the 1991 Gulf War.

Overall, his military arsenal is greatly reduced from what it was for, except that we do have this continuing quest for weapons of mass destruction, and as one official at the institute said, if the threat is left alone, it will grow. If we strike that threat, Saddam will certainly turn his weapons of mass destruction on whoever strikes at him -- Daryn. KAGAN: And then, on this point of needing international help, to have to go outside to build this nuclear weapon that he would like to have, one would assume that he has been out there shopping, trying to find this stuff already, and has not had much success.

RODGERS: That appears to be the conclusion of the report from this British think tank, which is highly respected. The most likely place to find weapons-grade material on the black market is in one of the former Soviet republics, if someone could have made off with enriched uranium there.

But again, they say the risk of that is relatively low. If he were to get that kind of enriched uranium, then it is assumed that the Iraqi scientists have the expertise to put a bomb together within a matter of months, and then the United States, if it goes after Saddam, would find itself in an entirely different military situation tactically and otherwise.

One other thing that was very interesting, again, they reported that Saddam Hussein had given orders in the Gulf War, in '91, to use chemical and biological weapons against any U.S.-led coalition troops that made a move on Baghdad, and they said again this time, if, indeed, U.S. forces moved towards Baghdad, they can expect to be confronted with Saddam's chemical and biological warfare weapons -- Daryn.

KAGAN: Walter Rodgers, bringing us the inside of that report from London. Walter, thank you.

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