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CNN Live Today

Interview with Bruce Hoffman

Aired September 10, 2002 - 10:28   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Returning now to those al Qaeda tapes, and some perspective and analysis from an expert in terrorism.
Bruce Hoffman is the director of the RAND Corporation and the founding director of the Center for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at Scotland's University of St. Andrews. He is also the author of "Inside Terrorism." He viewed the tapes yesterday in our Washington bureau and he joins us now -- thanks very much for being with us, Mr. Hoffman.

BRUCE HOFFMAN, DIRECTOR, RAND CORPORATION: Happy to do so.

COOPER: There are a couple of things I wanted to talk about, regarding these tapes. The first, though, seems to indicate that whatever these show us, they seem to indicate a certain level of public relations understanding on the part of al Qaeda, the fact that they were released at this time, at the one-year anniversary.

HOFFMAN: Absolutely. Indeed, from the start, al Qaeda was divided into four committees, and one of those committees in addition to military, religious, intelligence, and logistics was communications. So this is evidence that despite the punishment that has been meted out to al Qaeda in Afghanistan, elsewhere throughout the world, the loss of their bases, the loss of their headquarters, they still have their PR campaign up and running.

COOPER: According to Al-Jazeera, we hear the voice of Osama bin Laden on one of these tapes. Do you put any credence in that, and is there any -- does it give you any indication of whether or not he is still alive?

HOFFMAN: I think what is significant is that much as throughout the world, and not least in the United States, we are commemorating the one-year anniversary of this tragic event. Al Qaeda was thinking on exactly the same lines in preparing their own tapes. So, as Peter Bergen previously described, it doesn't tell us one way or the other whether bin Laden is dead or alive. What it does show is that al Qaeda still sees a need to communicate, it still sees a purpose in attempting to recruit new members, to rally the troops for these forces, and that bin Laden, dead or alive, is an unmistakable icon for this struggle.

COOPER: Well, let's talk about the purpose of these tapes. Is it purely propaganda, as some people have suggested, or you mentioned the idea of recruitment?

HOFFMAN: Well, I think all terrorist propaganda has both an external and an internal audience. Externally, it is to remind the world that al Qaeda, again, despite the pummelling they have taken, although it has been weakened, it hasn't been destroyed.

And internally, yes, it is a very important message to rally the troops to say, We are still here, and we are still carrying on the struggle, albeit, one hopes, at a reduced condition, I certainly think a reduced way from last year, but nonetheless, that there is still an organization out there that is capable of thinking about communicating, and if it is -- thinking about communicating, it is also thinking about attacking.

COOPER: Do these tapes tell us anything about Zacarias Moussaoui, the man now in U.S. custody, the man alleged to be the 20th hijacker?

HOFFMAN: I think you are right to point to this. This is very interesting that he is reportedly the 20th hijacker, but nowhere in the tapes, or indeed in that tableau of martyrs that bin Laden exalts is Moussaoui mentioned.

It may be that, as the French intelligence sources now suspect, that he was part of a completely different plot, perhaps a follow-on plot, perhaps an auxiliary plot, but a plot nonetheless that was disrupted with his arrest, but not part of the September 11 incident.

COOPER: So what do you think his role was? If he wasn't the 20th hijacker, I mean, do you think he is an innocent guy, or do you think he had some another role to play?

HOFFMAN: Well, I certainly can't comment on his culpability or innocence, but what I think appears to be the case, from what we know, at least what is being presented openly, is that he was certainly training to be a pilot, he certainly had a terrorist past that the French authorities were well aware of, and he certainly had connections with al Qaeda. In fact, he has praised bin Laden. So I think one could draw a conclusion that he was part of a plot, but it is, I think, remarkable that even a year later, we are still not sure exactly what part in a wider plot he may have played.

COOPER: He was also training to fly larger aircraft as I understand, which could, theoretically, indicate perhaps an international role that he was going to be playing.

HOFFMAN: That's exactly right. That is precisely what the French suspect that, unlike Mohammed Atta, and the 18 other hijackers on September 11, or the three other pilots, who trained on 767s and 757s, Boeing aircraft, Moussaoui had a particular interest in Boeing 747s, the much larger aircraft that are generally used on long haul flights, on trans-oceanic flights.

So the suspicion from France is that Moussaoui was perhaps part of another cell, or several cells perhaps, that were enmeshed somehow or integrated into an operation that would have carried out a hijacking in the United States, but directed the aircraft elsewhere.

COOPER: There had also been conflicting reports over the last several months, last year, whether or not the hijackers knew this was a suicide mission. Any new indication from these tapes? Obviously, we saw a -- what looked like a last will and testament videotape, so it would seem to indicate that they knew.

HOFFMAN: Yes. I think it does. This is a very important issue. I would argue that from the time that they deployed to the United States on their organization's most important mission to date, they knew that had a one way ticket, that they were on a mission of martyrdom. Indeed, the tape released last April, also by al Qaeda, that had one of the hijackers on board American Airlines Flight 77 that crashed into the Pentagon, that was Ibrahim Ahmed Alhaznawi, said very much the same thing, that he was coming to America to kill Americans, that he is embracing a mission of martyrdom.

Certainly, the tape released yesterday of Abdulaziz Alomari says the same thing. I have been told from sources that there are 17 other tapes as well. So I think that what this suggests is that rather than the irrational, mindless, fanatical acts of violence that, particularly, suicide terrorism has seen, that this is something that is rather more calculating, that is orchestrated, and that is certainly premeditated.

COOPER: All right. Bruce Hoffman, thanks very much. Interesting stuff. Thanks for joining us this afternoon.

HOFFMAN: You are very welcome.

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