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Max Mayfield Discusses Hurricane Isidore

Aired September 23, 2002 - 11:32   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JACQUI JERAS, METEOROLOGIST: Joining us now live from the National Hurricane Center is Max Mayfield, and he is the deputy director.
Good morning, Max.

MAX MAYFIELD, DEP. DIR., NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Good morning, Jacqui.

JERAS: Has that changed the track at all?

MAYFIELD: No, really we have very weak steering (ph) currents, and when we have that, we have actually learned to expect some of the erratic motion, and it will meander around the Yucatan Peninsula probably most of the day, and that's actually good news, because the hurricane is a heat engine, and when you renew the source of energy, it'll weaken as you mentioned. It is now to tropical storm and likely continue to weaken in the day. But what we are concerned with is as it does move back out over the Gulf of Mexico and come up towards the north, it could regain hurricane status.

JERAS: What kind of threat do you think Isidore could be to the U.S. mainland?

MAYFIELD: We make a three-day forecast, and our track right has it moving very, very slowly off the Yucatan for the next 24 hours, and then heading more towards the north, northwest. And by Thursday morning, somewhere here in the northwest during the Gulf of Mexico, threatening both Texas and Louisiana. This is still something we need to watch carefully.

JERAS: OK. They are feeling some impacts across the United States from this tropical storm. What can people on the gulf coast expect before it would make landfall, over the next couple of days?

MAYFIELD: Well, the tide levels, we have actually looked at the tide gauges from Texas to Florida, and the tide level is already about a foot, foot and a half above normal now. This is so large and so powerful the last few days, that it's been generating very large swells, and that's putting heavy surf and some beach erosion. That will likely continue. We will just have to see here, the future track as it gets back out on the Gulf of Mexico.

JERAS: Should people be running out to stores, and getting their supplies and boarding up their windows right now, or do you think we need to sit put for a couple of days yet? What should people be doing? MAYFIELD: No, we need to watch it carefully. Obviously, they don't have a hurricane plan, or if they've reviewed that hurricane plan recently, perhaps they should do some things I wish they'd done before the start of the hurricane season. The main threat right now looks like it would to be upper Texas coast, Louisiana, but there is still a lot of different scenarios that could happen, and we need to continue to watch it very carefully.

LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, Max, Leon Harris jumping in here on this one. Good to talk to you again.

MAYFIELD: Yes, sir?

HARRIS: Let me ask you this, though, because I'm watching this, and it seems like, of course, the big problem is going to be that this storm is moving so slow, so no matter where it hits, if it does hits some place, it is just going to sit there and squat on for quite a while, and that brings to mind some storms that we've seen in the past.

MAYFIELD: Right, we don't want to get lulled to sleep. I can think of other some storms, Opal in 1995, sat down there off the Yucatan for days and days, and then it finally starting moved northward and became a very powerful hurricane. Hurricane Carmen, some people will remember in Louisiana in 1974, sat down there, moved very, very slowly at the Yucatan, and then came back up in the Gulf and became a category-three hurricane.

So we don't want to let our guard down. We need to watch it, be prepared to take action if advised to so by your local officials.

JERAS: All right, Max. Hey, we have something else to be concerned about in the Atlantic, don't we?

MAYFIELD: We do. And actually, just a few minutes ago, we had the Air Force C-130s flying through tropical depression 13 out here east of the Windward (ph) Islands. We just got what we call a vortex message, and they found some strong winds. We're in the process of entering a special advisory on this system, and it will be upgraded to a tropical storm. It'll be called Lilly, and we'll be coordinating with the countries down there in the Caribbean to put up tropical storm warnings at this time.

The future track of this system should be toward the west northwest, and in the three-day time period, somewhere here in the vicinity of Hesbenoila (ph). We'll have to watch that one also.

JERAS: And that looks kind of familiar, doesn't it, Max.

MAYFIELD: It does. And we do think that there is a good chance for this to strengthen. And any time you have a developing system in the Caribbean, and the peak of the hurricane season, we obviously have to watch it.

JERAS: All right, thanks very much for that update.

Max Mayfield, the director of the National Hurricane Center. Thanks for being with us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired September 23, 2002 - 11:32   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JACQUI JERAS, METEOROLOGIST: Joining us now live from the National Hurricane Center is Max Mayfield, and he is the deputy director.
Good morning, Max.

MAX MAYFIELD, DEP. DIR., NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Good morning, Jacqui.

JERAS: Has that changed the track at all?

MAYFIELD: No, really we have very weak steering (ph) currents, and when we have that, we have actually learned to expect some of the erratic motion, and it will meander around the Yucatan Peninsula probably most of the day, and that's actually good news, because the hurricane is a heat engine, and when you renew the source of energy, it'll weaken as you mentioned. It is now to tropical storm and likely continue to weaken in the day. But what we are concerned with is as it does move back out over the Gulf of Mexico and come up towards the north, it could regain hurricane status.

JERAS: What kind of threat do you think Isidore could be to the U.S. mainland?

MAYFIELD: We make a three-day forecast, and our track right has it moving very, very slowly off the Yucatan for the next 24 hours, and then heading more towards the north, northwest. And by Thursday morning, somewhere here in the northwest during the Gulf of Mexico, threatening both Texas and Louisiana. This is still something we need to watch carefully.

JERAS: OK. They are feeling some impacts across the United States from this tropical storm. What can people on the gulf coast expect before it would make landfall, over the next couple of days?

MAYFIELD: Well, the tide levels, we have actually looked at the tide gauges from Texas to Florida, and the tide level is already about a foot, foot and a half above normal now. This is so large and so powerful the last few days, that it's been generating very large swells, and that's putting heavy surf and some beach erosion. That will likely continue. We will just have to see here, the future track as it gets back out on the Gulf of Mexico.

JERAS: Should people be running out to stores, and getting their supplies and boarding up their windows right now, or do you think we need to sit put for a couple of days yet? What should people be doing? MAYFIELD: No, we need to watch it carefully. Obviously, they don't have a hurricane plan, or if they've reviewed that hurricane plan recently, perhaps they should do some things I wish they'd done before the start of the hurricane season. The main threat right now looks like it would to be upper Texas coast, Louisiana, but there is still a lot of different scenarios that could happen, and we need to continue to watch it very carefully.

LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Hey, Max, Leon Harris jumping in here on this one. Good to talk to you again.

MAYFIELD: Yes, sir?

HARRIS: Let me ask you this, though, because I'm watching this, and it seems like, of course, the big problem is going to be that this storm is moving so slow, so no matter where it hits, if it does hits some place, it is just going to sit there and squat on for quite a while, and that brings to mind some storms that we've seen in the past.

MAYFIELD: Right, we don't want to get lulled to sleep. I can think of other some storms, Opal in 1995, sat down there off the Yucatan for days and days, and then it finally starting moved northward and became a very powerful hurricane. Hurricane Carmen, some people will remember in Louisiana in 1974, sat down there, moved very, very slowly at the Yucatan, and then came back up in the Gulf and became a category-three hurricane.

So we don't want to let our guard down. We need to watch it, be prepared to take action if advised to so by your local officials.

JERAS: All right, Max. Hey, we have something else to be concerned about in the Atlantic, don't we?

MAYFIELD: We do. And actually, just a few minutes ago, we had the Air Force C-130s flying through tropical depression 13 out here east of the Windward (ph) Islands. We just got what we call a vortex message, and they found some strong winds. We're in the process of entering a special advisory on this system, and it will be upgraded to a tropical storm. It'll be called Lilly, and we'll be coordinating with the countries down there in the Caribbean to put up tropical storm warnings at this time.

The future track of this system should be toward the west northwest, and in the three-day time period, somewhere here in the vicinity of Hesbenoila (ph). We'll have to watch that one also.

JERAS: And that looks kind of familiar, doesn't it, Max.

MAYFIELD: It does. And we do think that there is a good chance for this to strengthen. And any time you have a developing system in the Caribbean, and the peak of the hurricane season, we obviously have to watch it.

JERAS: All right, thanks very much for that update.

Max Mayfield, the director of the National Hurricane Center. Thanks for being with us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com