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CNN Live Today

Interview with Max Mayfield

Aired September 24, 2002 - 11:45   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Now you see that's a shot that we're getting from the satellites. And from space, you can see Tropical Storm Isidore seems to be covering almost the entire Gulf of Mexico right now.
New Orleans might be the most likely target later on this week, and as if that weren't enough, there is yet another tropical storm right on Isidore's heels.

And as you can see, Jacqui Jeras is tracking both storms for us and joins us now with more.

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, it looks like Isidore is going to be affecting the Gulf Coast residents. And then, Lili making its way east. So, we'll be watching areas like Florida, along the Georgia and Carolina coastline, for a potential landfall. Yes, but that's still several days out. We'll be watching the weekend for Lili.

HARRIS: All right, that's the "I" and that's the "L." Where is the "J?" We go with the alphabet with these storms.

JERAS: "J" is long gone. "K" is out still there, though. Tropical Storm Kyle...

HARRIS: Yes.

JERAS: ... in the middle of the Atlantic, so no threat to landfall on that one at all.

HARRIS: OK.

JERAS: So, Kyle, we're kind of letting it just sit there and spin at this time, because the other two are a big threat.

And of course, the biggest threat right now is Tropical Storm Isidore. And as of 11:00 at the top of the hour, it is packing winds of 60 miles per hour, moving north northwest, but expected to take a little bit of a turn up towards the northeast. We have a subtropical high into the western Atlantic, and this is coming in on the back side of it. So, that's why we are getting that northward turn now, is because we are getting caught up in that high, bringing it up towards landfall.

That's the latest forecast track on it. Still keeping it at hurricane strength as it makes landfall. And we want to get the latest now from Max Mayfield, who is the director of the National Hurricane Center, joining us live now this morning.

Good morning, Max.

MAX MAYFIELD, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Good morning, Jacqui.

JERAS: And what's latest in terms of the threat and the timing of when Isidore could make landfall?

MAYFIELD: Well, you can see from the satellite picture behind me that this is nowhere near the hurricane that we had two or three days ago. This is a very powerful category 3 hurricane that made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. But now, that inner core has really weakened dramatically.

We don't really think we're going to see any rapid intensification. We think that once it gets further away from land that it will start to slowly strengthen again and will likely become a hurricane by tomorrow.

The big change now with this northern motion that we have been talking about here for a couple days is finally under way. We do have a tropical storm warning up and the hurricane watch.

And what we think will happen is that it will become a hurricane -- a category 1 hurricane by tomorrow, and then, continue more towards the north. And we have a hurricane watch out from Cameron, Louisiana to Pascagoula, Mississippi, with a tropical storm warning from High Island over to Destin, Florida.

So, this is really the area that we are focusing on. I think we could have tropical storm force winds on the coastline by tomorrow afternoon, and then, the landfall near the core there very, very early on Thursday morning if it stays on this track.

JERAS: And you think it will be category 1 strength when it makes landfall?

MAYFIELD: That's what we are forecasting right now. We always -- you know, it could have some surprises with the intensity forecasting. But that's the most likely scenario right now.

I don't want to minimize that however, especially in that north central Gulf Coast. The terrain is so low-lying there, that even a category 1 hurricane can indeed cause some real storm surge problems. As the winds go counter-clockwise around the center of Isidore, that's going to pile up some very high storm surges near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast.

JERAS: And winds at a category 1, 74 to 95 miles per hour.

What about rainfall? Some of the computer models I was looking at for tomorrow are forecasting about 7 inches of rain in southeastern Louisiana for tomorrow alone. MAYFIELD: And I think if you have a movement like we are forecasting of 10 to 15 miles per hour that somewhere 5 to 10 inches is a very reasonable forecast there.

JERAS: Do you think people need to evacuate at this point? Or what should people be doing now to get ready?

MAYFIELD: We have been talking with the emergency managers at the state and local-level, and with FEMA, actually for days, active for about three weeks going back to Tropical Storm Edouard, to tell the truth. The decisions on who needs to evacuate from those low- lying areas will be made by the emergency managers, and they have really been on top of this for days.

We have been talking to Louisiana, and actually the whole north Gulf Coast, all weekend, since the weekend.

JERAS: OK, thank you very much.

And what about Lili? I want to ask you the threat of Lili to possibly Florida, or up towards the Carolinas?

MAYFIELD: Right. That -- we really are getting a little more concerned about Lili now, because the aircraft has gone in there. They have found some pretty strong winds. The maximum sustained winds have increased now to 70 miles per hour.

And we think that the most likely track is for it to come up here towards Haiti in a two-day time period, and then in a three-day time period, it will be somewhere near eastern Cuba.

Some of our computer projections have it to the left of that, headed towards the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some have it more northward towards the Bahamas.

So, this is certainly something we have to watch. Anytime you have a developing tropical storm, you know, down in the Caribbean at the peak of the hurricane season, we do need to watch that very carefully.

JERAS: OK, thanks very much, Max. And we're going to be checking in you all week long about 11:30. Thanks for joining us.

MAYFIELD: You're welcome.

JERAS: So, we have Lili to watch for the end of the weekend, and of course, Isidore, it looks like Thursday morning making landfall as a category 1 hurricane.

HARRIS: Yes, they're going to be very busy. Max is going to have his hands full. As a matter of fact, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) come back tomorrow, because Max may have to call in some extra help there at the Hurricane Center.

JERAS: Right.

HARRIS: All right, Jacqui, thanks -- Jacqui Jeras here.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.







Aired September 24, 2002 - 11:45   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Now you see that's a shot that we're getting from the satellites. And from space, you can see Tropical Storm Isidore seems to be covering almost the entire Gulf of Mexico right now.
New Orleans might be the most likely target later on this week, and as if that weren't enough, there is yet another tropical storm right on Isidore's heels.

And as you can see, Jacqui Jeras is tracking both storms for us and joins us now with more.

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, it looks like Isidore is going to be affecting the Gulf Coast residents. And then, Lili making its way east. So, we'll be watching areas like Florida, along the Georgia and Carolina coastline, for a potential landfall. Yes, but that's still several days out. We'll be watching the weekend for Lili.

HARRIS: All right, that's the "I" and that's the "L." Where is the "J?" We go with the alphabet with these storms.

JERAS: "J" is long gone. "K" is out still there, though. Tropical Storm Kyle...

HARRIS: Yes.

JERAS: ... in the middle of the Atlantic, so no threat to landfall on that one at all.

HARRIS: OK.

JERAS: So, Kyle, we're kind of letting it just sit there and spin at this time, because the other two are a big threat.

And of course, the biggest threat right now is Tropical Storm Isidore. And as of 11:00 at the top of the hour, it is packing winds of 60 miles per hour, moving north northwest, but expected to take a little bit of a turn up towards the northeast. We have a subtropical high into the western Atlantic, and this is coming in on the back side of it. So, that's why we are getting that northward turn now, is because we are getting caught up in that high, bringing it up towards landfall.

That's the latest forecast track on it. Still keeping it at hurricane strength as it makes landfall. And we want to get the latest now from Max Mayfield, who is the director of the National Hurricane Center, joining us live now this morning.

Good morning, Max.

MAX MAYFIELD, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Good morning, Jacqui.

JERAS: And what's latest in terms of the threat and the timing of when Isidore could make landfall?

MAYFIELD: Well, you can see from the satellite picture behind me that this is nowhere near the hurricane that we had two or three days ago. This is a very powerful category 3 hurricane that made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. But now, that inner core has really weakened dramatically.

We don't really think we're going to see any rapid intensification. We think that once it gets further away from land that it will start to slowly strengthen again and will likely become a hurricane by tomorrow.

The big change now with this northern motion that we have been talking about here for a couple days is finally under way. We do have a tropical storm warning up and the hurricane watch.

And what we think will happen is that it will become a hurricane -- a category 1 hurricane by tomorrow, and then, continue more towards the north. And we have a hurricane watch out from Cameron, Louisiana to Pascagoula, Mississippi, with a tropical storm warning from High Island over to Destin, Florida.

So, this is really the area that we are focusing on. I think we could have tropical storm force winds on the coastline by tomorrow afternoon, and then, the landfall near the core there very, very early on Thursday morning if it stays on this track.

JERAS: And you think it will be category 1 strength when it makes landfall?

MAYFIELD: That's what we are forecasting right now. We always -- you know, it could have some surprises with the intensity forecasting. But that's the most likely scenario right now.

I don't want to minimize that however, especially in that north central Gulf Coast. The terrain is so low-lying there, that even a category 1 hurricane can indeed cause some real storm surge problems. As the winds go counter-clockwise around the center of Isidore, that's going to pile up some very high storm surges near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast.

JERAS: And winds at a category 1, 74 to 95 miles per hour.

What about rainfall? Some of the computer models I was looking at for tomorrow are forecasting about 7 inches of rain in southeastern Louisiana for tomorrow alone. MAYFIELD: And I think if you have a movement like we are forecasting of 10 to 15 miles per hour that somewhere 5 to 10 inches is a very reasonable forecast there.

JERAS: Do you think people need to evacuate at this point? Or what should people be doing now to get ready?

MAYFIELD: We have been talking with the emergency managers at the state and local-level, and with FEMA, actually for days, active for about three weeks going back to Tropical Storm Edouard, to tell the truth. The decisions on who needs to evacuate from those low- lying areas will be made by the emergency managers, and they have really been on top of this for days.

We have been talking to Louisiana, and actually the whole north Gulf Coast, all weekend, since the weekend.

JERAS: OK, thank you very much.

And what about Lili? I want to ask you the threat of Lili to possibly Florida, or up towards the Carolinas?

MAYFIELD: Right. That -- we really are getting a little more concerned about Lili now, because the aircraft has gone in there. They have found some pretty strong winds. The maximum sustained winds have increased now to 70 miles per hour.

And we think that the most likely track is for it to come up here towards Haiti in a two-day time period, and then in a three-day time period, it will be somewhere near eastern Cuba.

Some of our computer projections have it to the left of that, headed towards the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some have it more northward towards the Bahamas.

So, this is certainly something we have to watch. Anytime you have a developing tropical storm, you know, down in the Caribbean at the peak of the hurricane season, we do need to watch that very carefully.

JERAS: OK, thanks very much, Max. And we're going to be checking in you all week long about 11:30. Thanks for joining us.

MAYFIELD: You're welcome.

JERAS: So, we have Lili to watch for the end of the weekend, and of course, Isidore, it looks like Thursday morning making landfall as a category 1 hurricane.

HARRIS: Yes, they're going to be very busy. Max is going to have his hands full. As a matter of fact, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) come back tomorrow, because Max may have to call in some extra help there at the Hurricane Center.

JERAS: Right.

HARRIS: All right, Jacqui, thanks -- Jacqui Jeras here.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.