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CNN Live Today

Interview with Max Mayfield

Aired October 01, 2002 - 11:28   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JACQUI JERAS, CNN WEATHER: Lili is packing winds of 90 miles per hour, so we've been seeing some strengthening with it throughout the day today.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Just what we didn't want to hear.

JERAS: I know, and it looks like it is going to continue to strengthen slowly but steadily, and likely become a Category 2 hurricane before the day is done. You have to have winds of 96 miles per hour in order to be a Category 2. Right now, bringing very heavy rain and strong winds. We had a wind gust earlier this morning on the Isle of Youth of 108 miles per hour. Rains across western Cuba expected to be between 8 and 12 inches of rainfall.

So that is going to be very much on the heavy side there, and our latest forecast track very similar to what we were expecting earlier this morning. We are expecting it to continue on a west-northwesterly track, and move back out into the open waters, likely later on for tonight, and when it does that, that's when the speed is expected to be picking up quite a bit.

There are the coordinates for you, about 115 miles southwest of Havana, Cuba. The eye is actually right in between the Isle of Youth and Cuba. Yes, really becoming well formed, and it's starting to expand a little bit, it looks lie, in size. This one has been a lot smaller than what Isidore was, at least in terms of magnitude, but we will have to see what happens as it moves out over the open waters.

We want to go now to Max Mayfield, the director of the National Hurricane Center. We talked to him yesterday about the chance of this developing into a Category 3 hurricane, and possibly making landfall on the United States later on this week. Max, what's the latest on that?

MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Well, we still think it has a very good chance to strengthen once it gets in to the Gulf of Mexico. It's interacting a little bit right now with the island of Cuba. We have had an excellent display on radar from Havana this morning, and that inner eye wall has pretty much collapsed now, but I think it is just a matter of time before it gets into the Gulf, away from the land there, and will start to intensify.

JERAS: So you don't think there will be much weakening as it moves over Cuba?

MAYFIELD: I really don't think there will be anything at all like we had Isidore, when Isidore moved over the Yucatan, because that is a large land mass. The western portion of Cuba is not very wide to start with, it is also not very hilly there. So, there is a slight interaction there in the boundary layer, but it should strengthen once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.

JERAS: How soon do you think the United States will feel any impact, start seeing the high surf, and the winds coming in?

MAYFIELD: I think probably by Wednesday night, the tropical storm-force winds will be approaching the coast, and the center on our forecast track approaches the Louisiana coast sometime on Thursday morning. That means we'll likely be considering a hurricane watch for a portion of the northwest Gulf Coast later today.

JERAS: Later today, so we'll be watching for that. At this time, do you have a good estimate of where it may be hitting? You said Louisiana, possibly?

MAYFIELD: It is way too early to pinpoint the landfall precisely, but right now, the forecast track has it going onto that Louisiana coast.

JERAS: How soon do people need to start getting ready?

MAYFIELD: Well, they need to listen very carefully to their local officials, and this is going to be a hurricane when it strikes land, as opposed to Isidore, which was a strong tropical storm, and this means, especially on the Louisiana coast, we have to pay real attention to the storm surge flooding. They could have some very high, 10, 15 feet storm surge values near and just to the east of where the center crosses the coast. And that means that those people need to evacuate, they need to listen to what their local officials are telling them to do.

JERAS: All right. And the winds and the rain is probably going to start picking up already sometime tomorrow, so tomorrow is not exactly going to be a great day to get out there and start putting up your boards.

MAYFIELD: Well, they will have most of the day tomorrow to do their preparation, tonight and tomorrow, but I would not wait until Thursday to make any preparations.

JERAS: All right, thank you very much. Category 3. You heard it right there from Max Mayfield from the National Hurricane Center. Also, by the way on a side note, Lili is the eighth tropical system in the month of September, so that is a record number.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired October 1, 2002 - 11:28   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JACQUI JERAS, CNN WEATHER: Lili is packing winds of 90 miles per hour, so we've been seeing some strengthening with it throughout the day today.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Just what we didn't want to hear.

JERAS: I know, and it looks like it is going to continue to strengthen slowly but steadily, and likely become a Category 2 hurricane before the day is done. You have to have winds of 96 miles per hour in order to be a Category 2. Right now, bringing very heavy rain and strong winds. We had a wind gust earlier this morning on the Isle of Youth of 108 miles per hour. Rains across western Cuba expected to be between 8 and 12 inches of rainfall.

So that is going to be very much on the heavy side there, and our latest forecast track very similar to what we were expecting earlier this morning. We are expecting it to continue on a west-northwesterly track, and move back out into the open waters, likely later on for tonight, and when it does that, that's when the speed is expected to be picking up quite a bit.

There are the coordinates for you, about 115 miles southwest of Havana, Cuba. The eye is actually right in between the Isle of Youth and Cuba. Yes, really becoming well formed, and it's starting to expand a little bit, it looks lie, in size. This one has been a lot smaller than what Isidore was, at least in terms of magnitude, but we will have to see what happens as it moves out over the open waters.

We want to go now to Max Mayfield, the director of the National Hurricane Center. We talked to him yesterday about the chance of this developing into a Category 3 hurricane, and possibly making landfall on the United States later on this week. Max, what's the latest on that?

MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Well, we still think it has a very good chance to strengthen once it gets in to the Gulf of Mexico. It's interacting a little bit right now with the island of Cuba. We have had an excellent display on radar from Havana this morning, and that inner eye wall has pretty much collapsed now, but I think it is just a matter of time before it gets into the Gulf, away from the land there, and will start to intensify.

JERAS: So you don't think there will be much weakening as it moves over Cuba?

MAYFIELD: I really don't think there will be anything at all like we had Isidore, when Isidore moved over the Yucatan, because that is a large land mass. The western portion of Cuba is not very wide to start with, it is also not very hilly there. So, there is a slight interaction there in the boundary layer, but it should strengthen once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.

JERAS: How soon do you think the United States will feel any impact, start seeing the high surf, and the winds coming in?

MAYFIELD: I think probably by Wednesday night, the tropical storm-force winds will be approaching the coast, and the center on our forecast track approaches the Louisiana coast sometime on Thursday morning. That means we'll likely be considering a hurricane watch for a portion of the northwest Gulf Coast later today.

JERAS: Later today, so we'll be watching for that. At this time, do you have a good estimate of where it may be hitting? You said Louisiana, possibly?

MAYFIELD: It is way too early to pinpoint the landfall precisely, but right now, the forecast track has it going onto that Louisiana coast.

JERAS: How soon do people need to start getting ready?

MAYFIELD: Well, they need to listen very carefully to their local officials, and this is going to be a hurricane when it strikes land, as opposed to Isidore, which was a strong tropical storm, and this means, especially on the Louisiana coast, we have to pay real attention to the storm surge flooding. They could have some very high, 10, 15 feet storm surge values near and just to the east of where the center crosses the coast. And that means that those people need to evacuate, they need to listen to what their local officials are telling them to do.

JERAS: All right. And the winds and the rain is probably going to start picking up already sometime tomorrow, so tomorrow is not exactly going to be a great day to get out there and start putting up your boards.

MAYFIELD: Well, they will have most of the day tomorrow to do their preparation, tonight and tomorrow, but I would not wait until Thursday to make any preparations.

JERAS: All right, thank you very much. Category 3. You heard it right there from Max Mayfield from the National Hurricane Center. Also, by the way on a side note, Lili is the eighth tropical system in the month of September, so that is a record number.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com