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CNN Live Today

Hurricane Lili Could Bring Massive Storm Surge

Aired October 02, 2002 - 11:42   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's go ahead and bring Max Mayfield in from the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Perhaps he can compare our most recent storm to Isidore?
ORELON SIDNEY, CNN WEATHER: I think that would be an excellent idea. Mr. Mayfield, can you hear us?

MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Yes, I can. Good morning.

SIDNEY: Good morning. What is the deal with this intensity drop -- this pressure drop and the intensity increase?

MAYFIELD: Well, we've been forecasting Lili to become a major hurricane, and it has this morning.

We want to watch it very carefully and we are with the Air Force hurricane planes out there right now to see if that continues to strengthen. That, no matter what, a Category 3 or a Category 4 is a very, very dangerous hurricane, and people need to, you know, take this very, very seriously. Listen to what their local officials are telling them to do.

SIDNEY: Now, where are you thinking -- is the track -- thinking about the same as it was earlier this morning? I just got the report that came out 11:00 Eastern time.

MAYFIELD: Right. The track is still very consistent. The hurricane warning goes from just east of High Island, Texas over to the mouth of the Mississippi River, and then we have tropical storm warnings on either side of that.

Depending on exactly where this comes in, we would expect a tremendous storm surge of 8 to 12 feet on the immediate coastline, and some valleys up, perhaps, as high as 18 feet above mean sea level well inland. And the best thing to compare with, I believe, is probably Hurricane Audrey back in 1957. That was a major hurricane, and they had 12 to 13 feet of storm surge, and that water pushed inland as far inland as 25 miles from Cameron, Louisiana up to near the Lake Charles area.

SIDNEY: Dr. Mayfield, now, the storm is moving pretty rapidly, also, in its track. Is that going to affect the wind speed, say, on the right side of the storm, versus the left side of where the center makes landfall?

MAYFIELD: That is already factored in, so when we give you maximum sustained winds of 120 miles per hour, that already has the forward motion factored in there. That is the way we have always done things.

SIDNEY: OK. Now, what about after landfall? What can we look for once the center hits the coast? Of course, the wind speed dies off pretty quickly, what about the rainfall and the potential tornadoes?

MAYFIELD: Well, we need to consider all the hazards of the hurricane, and that includes the rainfall. We are saying six to ten inches along the path right now. We always have the chance of some isolated tornadoes, and the wind speed will probably diminish down to about a half of whatever it comes in on the coastline is, in 12 hours after landfall.

So, as it turns up into northeastern Louisiana, northern Mississippi, the wind will come way, way down, but our main concern with this hurricane is really that storm surge flooding, and there were nearly 400 people that drowned in Hurricane Audrey, and we don't want that to happen. So these people who are in those low-lying areas who have been told to evacuate, they need to do so immediately. They need to make all of their preparations today. Don't wait for tomorrow.

KAGAN: Get out.

SIDNEY: Dr. Mayfield, thank you so much for joining us. We know you are really busy. We appreciate it. Thank you.

MAYFIELD: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired October 2, 2002 - 11:42   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's go ahead and bring Max Mayfield in from the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Perhaps he can compare our most recent storm to Isidore?
ORELON SIDNEY, CNN WEATHER: I think that would be an excellent idea. Mr. Mayfield, can you hear us?

MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Yes, I can. Good morning.

SIDNEY: Good morning. What is the deal with this intensity drop -- this pressure drop and the intensity increase?

MAYFIELD: Well, we've been forecasting Lili to become a major hurricane, and it has this morning.

We want to watch it very carefully and we are with the Air Force hurricane planes out there right now to see if that continues to strengthen. That, no matter what, a Category 3 or a Category 4 is a very, very dangerous hurricane, and people need to, you know, take this very, very seriously. Listen to what their local officials are telling them to do.

SIDNEY: Now, where are you thinking -- is the track -- thinking about the same as it was earlier this morning? I just got the report that came out 11:00 Eastern time.

MAYFIELD: Right. The track is still very consistent. The hurricane warning goes from just east of High Island, Texas over to the mouth of the Mississippi River, and then we have tropical storm warnings on either side of that.

Depending on exactly where this comes in, we would expect a tremendous storm surge of 8 to 12 feet on the immediate coastline, and some valleys up, perhaps, as high as 18 feet above mean sea level well inland. And the best thing to compare with, I believe, is probably Hurricane Audrey back in 1957. That was a major hurricane, and they had 12 to 13 feet of storm surge, and that water pushed inland as far inland as 25 miles from Cameron, Louisiana up to near the Lake Charles area.

SIDNEY: Dr. Mayfield, now, the storm is moving pretty rapidly, also, in its track. Is that going to affect the wind speed, say, on the right side of the storm, versus the left side of where the center makes landfall?

MAYFIELD: That is already factored in, so when we give you maximum sustained winds of 120 miles per hour, that already has the forward motion factored in there. That is the way we have always done things.

SIDNEY: OK. Now, what about after landfall? What can we look for once the center hits the coast? Of course, the wind speed dies off pretty quickly, what about the rainfall and the potential tornadoes?

MAYFIELD: Well, we need to consider all the hazards of the hurricane, and that includes the rainfall. We are saying six to ten inches along the path right now. We always have the chance of some isolated tornadoes, and the wind speed will probably diminish down to about a half of whatever it comes in on the coastline is, in 12 hours after landfall.

So, as it turns up into northeastern Louisiana, northern Mississippi, the wind will come way, way down, but our main concern with this hurricane is really that storm surge flooding, and there were nearly 400 people that drowned in Hurricane Audrey, and we don't want that to happen. So these people who are in those low-lying areas who have been told to evacuate, they need to do so immediately. They need to make all of their preparations today. Don't wait for tomorrow.

KAGAN: Get out.

SIDNEY: Dr. Mayfield, thank you so much for joining us. We know you are really busy. We appreciate it. Thank you.

MAYFIELD: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com