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CNN Live Today

Interview with Max Mayfield

Aired October 03, 2002 - 11:15   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: You are looking now at some live pictures we're getting on the effects of Hurricane Lili. These are coming to us from New Orleans.
The storm currently at Category 1 status now, officially, but forecasters say it's still more than capable of doing quite a bit of damage. You can see some of it right there.

Let's head to Miami right now, checking in now with the National Hurricane Center and Max Mayfield, who's standing by there to give us the very latest on what's going on with Lili right about now.

Max, got to be breathing something of a sigh of relief this morning.

MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: I really am. I'm probably the most thankful person on the planet right now that it weakened down from that Storm Category 4 hurricane that we had around midnight last night down to a Category 2 at landfall, and not a very populated area where it hit, and it is now down to a Category 1. It's still not over, even a Category 1 hurricane, you can have loss of lives, so we don't want people to totally let down their guard.

HARRIS: Have you ever seen one drop from a Category 4 to a Category 1 so quickly?

MAYFIELD: Hurricane Opal (ph) did this in 1995. And we have really identified the intensity forecast problem as our number one priority to the research community. We really need some help on that. The track forecast on this was outstanding, if I can say so. We've been very consistent and had a very good track forecast, but we know we need help on the intensity. We did not forecast that it would become a Storm Category 4, and there's no way that anyone would forecast it to weaken as much as it did just in the last ten or twelve hours.

HARRIS: Yes, well, no problem here with you patting yourself on the back about the forecast on the track there. As a matter of fact, Miles O'Brien here was giving you kudos for that earlier this morning. You guys were dead on when it came to picking up the track on this.

Where do you think it's going to head now, and how much more rain do you think it's going to dump from here on out?

MAYFIELD: Well, we've still got a few concerns. The storm surge is probably at the peak right now with this onshore flow. This is Vermillion Bay right in here. This is the track of Lili. The center is right here.

Everything in green represents storm surge of about six feet. The red is up to ten feet. So it's probably at the peak right now, and will slowly start to reside later this afternoon. The future track has it coming up here into northern Louisiana, and then by tomorrow morning this time it will be somewhere near the southwestern tip of Tennessee, down to a weak tropical depression by that stage.

We'll still have some rainfall, but the main threat from rainfall will be today in Louisiana.

HARRIS: All right. Well, how about the folks who are looking down the barrel of this thing right now, what can they expect in terms of the flooding that may come from this with the rain and with the storm surge?

MAYFIELD: Yes, well -- OK. the storm surge is at the peak now, so things should start to let up a little bit there. The rainfall, 4 to 8 inches, maybe a few locally higher amounts in southern Louisiana today, and possibly southwestern Mississippi. But that will, as it picks up forward speed over the next day or so, that should taper off.

There's always a chance of an isolated tornado with the system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico like this, so we can't let our guard down for that. The hurricane-force winds, I would not be surprised to see them get in at least close to Lafayette as it moves on to the north.

HARRIS: Really? OK. Just to let folks know what they were watching a second ago, Max, we were showing some live pictures that we are getting in, some of the winds in that storm, happened to have an affiliate shot. You saw the reporter there talking, that was not Max talking. This is Max here.

Well, Max, thanks a lot, we appreciate it. We'll let you get back to work, and we will be checking back with you later on.

MAYFIELD: OK. Thank you.

HARRIS: Good luck. Keep it up.

MAYFIELD: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired October 3, 2002 - 11:15   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: You are looking now at some live pictures we're getting on the effects of Hurricane Lili. These are coming to us from New Orleans.
The storm currently at Category 1 status now, officially, but forecasters say it's still more than capable of doing quite a bit of damage. You can see some of it right there.

Let's head to Miami right now, checking in now with the National Hurricane Center and Max Mayfield, who's standing by there to give us the very latest on what's going on with Lili right about now.

Max, got to be breathing something of a sigh of relief this morning.

MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: I really am. I'm probably the most thankful person on the planet right now that it weakened down from that Storm Category 4 hurricane that we had around midnight last night down to a Category 2 at landfall, and not a very populated area where it hit, and it is now down to a Category 1. It's still not over, even a Category 1 hurricane, you can have loss of lives, so we don't want people to totally let down their guard.

HARRIS: Have you ever seen one drop from a Category 4 to a Category 1 so quickly?

MAYFIELD: Hurricane Opal (ph) did this in 1995. And we have really identified the intensity forecast problem as our number one priority to the research community. We really need some help on that. The track forecast on this was outstanding, if I can say so. We've been very consistent and had a very good track forecast, but we know we need help on the intensity. We did not forecast that it would become a Storm Category 4, and there's no way that anyone would forecast it to weaken as much as it did just in the last ten or twelve hours.

HARRIS: Yes, well, no problem here with you patting yourself on the back about the forecast on the track there. As a matter of fact, Miles O'Brien here was giving you kudos for that earlier this morning. You guys were dead on when it came to picking up the track on this.

Where do you think it's going to head now, and how much more rain do you think it's going to dump from here on out?

MAYFIELD: Well, we've still got a few concerns. The storm surge is probably at the peak right now with this onshore flow. This is Vermillion Bay right in here. This is the track of Lili. The center is right here.

Everything in green represents storm surge of about six feet. The red is up to ten feet. So it's probably at the peak right now, and will slowly start to reside later this afternoon. The future track has it coming up here into northern Louisiana, and then by tomorrow morning this time it will be somewhere near the southwestern tip of Tennessee, down to a weak tropical depression by that stage.

We'll still have some rainfall, but the main threat from rainfall will be today in Louisiana.

HARRIS: All right. Well, how about the folks who are looking down the barrel of this thing right now, what can they expect in terms of the flooding that may come from this with the rain and with the storm surge?

MAYFIELD: Yes, well -- OK. the storm surge is at the peak now, so things should start to let up a little bit there. The rainfall, 4 to 8 inches, maybe a few locally higher amounts in southern Louisiana today, and possibly southwestern Mississippi. But that will, as it picks up forward speed over the next day or so, that should taper off.

There's always a chance of an isolated tornado with the system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico like this, so we can't let our guard down for that. The hurricane-force winds, I would not be surprised to see them get in at least close to Lafayette as it moves on to the north.

HARRIS: Really? OK. Just to let folks know what they were watching a second ago, Max, we were showing some live pictures that we are getting in, some of the winds in that storm, happened to have an affiliate shot. You saw the reporter there talking, that was not Max talking. This is Max here.

Well, Max, thanks a lot, we appreciate it. We'll let you get back to work, and we will be checking back with you later on.

MAYFIELD: OK. Thank you.

HARRIS: Good luck. Keep it up.

MAYFIELD: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com