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America Votes 2002: House Races
Aired November 01, 2002 - 06:17 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: And now we want to handicap the House races for Tuesday. CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein of the "L.A. Times" joins us with a look at the high profile contests.
Good morning -- Ron.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning -- Carol.
LIN: Interesting to see a lot of these veterans fight for their life, huh?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, this has been a year that has been I think frustrating for the Democrats. After three consecutive cycles where they had won seats in the House, they're only six seats back. They only need six seats to get a majority, but they're having a hard time climbing that hill.
Two big problems they face this year, one is that they haven't been able to generate any kind of national tailwind; and these House races really are more susceptible to national influence than the Senate.
And secondly, there's a challenge because there simply aren't that many races on the battlefield. Because of the -- one's the decade (ph) process of redistricting, most seats have been drawn to protect the incumbent so there really aren't that many opportunities out there.
Having said that, you do see a number of incumbents in both parties having tough races. And the ability of the Democrats to even gain seats, much less win the House back, will depend on their ability to win some of those tough contests.
LIN: All right, let's talk about a couple of these tough contests because we're a little short on time today. Connie Morella's race up in Maryland against...
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
LIN: It's an incumbent against an incumbent, and explain this to me.
BROWNSTEIN: Well, Connie Morella actually is running against a challenger, Chris Van Hollen, the strongest Democrat she has faced, in a district that was made more Democratic in redistricting. She's a Republican, a liberal Republican, one of the last liberal Republicans; but she may have a slight edge at this point. The "Washington Post" endorsed her. This is a neck-and-neck race right down to the end.
LIN: Yes, it's kind of interesting because her ad running up there right now, I was watching it when I was doing the sniper coverage up in D.C., has Democrats coming out for Connie Morella.
BROWNSTEIN: Has to do it, a district that leans the other way.
LIN: All right. One more quick race here, Nancy Johnson versus Jim Maloney in Connecticut, two incumbents there running against each other.
BROWNSTEIN: Part of the problem, four incumbent versus incumbent races. In three of them, the Republicans now are clearly favored, including this one. A lot of races that looked promising in April look less so for Democrats in November, which is why even many Democrats are afraid they're going to fall short again for a fourth consecutive time.
LIN: All right, Ron Brownstein, we're going to get much more with you in the days leading up to Election Day and of course on election night coverage itself. Thanks so much.
BROWNSTEIN: All right, thank you.
LIN: Ron Brownstein, "L.A. Times."
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired November 1, 2002 - 06:17 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: And now we want to handicap the House races for Tuesday. CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein of the "L.A. Times" joins us with a look at the high profile contests.
Good morning -- Ron.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning -- Carol.
LIN: Interesting to see a lot of these veterans fight for their life, huh?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, this has been a year that has been I think frustrating for the Democrats. After three consecutive cycles where they had won seats in the House, they're only six seats back. They only need six seats to get a majority, but they're having a hard time climbing that hill.
Two big problems they face this year, one is that they haven't been able to generate any kind of national tailwind; and these House races really are more susceptible to national influence than the Senate.
And secondly, there's a challenge because there simply aren't that many races on the battlefield. Because of the -- one's the decade (ph) process of redistricting, most seats have been drawn to protect the incumbent so there really aren't that many opportunities out there.
Having said that, you do see a number of incumbents in both parties having tough races. And the ability of the Democrats to even gain seats, much less win the House back, will depend on their ability to win some of those tough contests.
LIN: All right, let's talk about a couple of these tough contests because we're a little short on time today. Connie Morella's race up in Maryland against...
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
LIN: It's an incumbent against an incumbent, and explain this to me.
BROWNSTEIN: Well, Connie Morella actually is running against a challenger, Chris Van Hollen, the strongest Democrat she has faced, in a district that was made more Democratic in redistricting. She's a Republican, a liberal Republican, one of the last liberal Republicans; but she may have a slight edge at this point. The "Washington Post" endorsed her. This is a neck-and-neck race right down to the end.
LIN: Yes, it's kind of interesting because her ad running up there right now, I was watching it when I was doing the sniper coverage up in D.C., has Democrats coming out for Connie Morella.
BROWNSTEIN: Has to do it, a district that leans the other way.
LIN: All right. One more quick race here, Nancy Johnson versus Jim Maloney in Connecticut, two incumbents there running against each other.
BROWNSTEIN: Part of the problem, four incumbent versus incumbent races. In three of them, the Republicans now are clearly favored, including this one. A lot of races that looked promising in April look less so for Democrats in November, which is why even many Democrats are afraid they're going to fall short again for a fourth consecutive time.
LIN: All right, Ron Brownstein, we're going to get much more with you in the days leading up to Election Day and of course on election night coverage itself. Thanks so much.
BROWNSTEIN: All right, thank you.
LIN: Ron Brownstein, "L.A. Times."
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
