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CNN Live At Daybreak
Voters on Point?
Aired November 01, 2002 - 06:33 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: We're just five days away until Election Day. It's called a midterm election, not a national presidential campaign.
So, how many voters are likely to show up?
Frank Newport, Gallup Poll editor-in-chief, joins me live from Princeton, New Jersey with some more insight on that.
Hi, Frank. Good morning.
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Good morning to you, Carol.
We are not anticipating a massive turnout by any means. Our measure of how much thought have you given to the election, Carol, simply shows Americans have been -- I hate to say it -- but relatively tuned out, at least up until the last measure that we took.
Let me compare this to 1998, which was the last midterm election. This is, "How much thought have you given to the election?" In '98, at a comparable time, roughly mid-October, it was 40 percent -- quite a lot of thought. Now it is 35 percent. So, we're just not even in the same ballpark.
By the way, Carol, that's a pretty low number, only 35 percent giving quite a lot of thought.
And look at this as well. We said, "Are you committed to your vote, or are you likely to shift?" This is another angle on the election, and you find this is how close the House is; 32 are committed to vote Republican, 31 committed to vote Democrat. That means 36 percent of the voters are in play right now.
So, you put the two together, Carol, two points here: One, get out the vote, extremely important in a low turnout election of who can get their people to the polls. And second, you've got quite a few voters that are still open to the blandishments, so to speak, of the candidates here in the last week of the campaign, Carol.
LIN: Interesting. Well, hopefully, interest will pick up in the next few days.
In the meantime, there have been so many other news stories dominating the news over the last month. You've had news about the economy, obviously gun safety lately, with the sniper issue going on up in the D.C. area. So, what's going to be important for voters in making up their minds at the polls?
NEWPORT: Well, that's the $64,000 question. Both parties, of course, desperately trying to get people to focus on the issues they think they do better on.
Let me show you, first of all, when we gave people a choice here, what's going to be important: national issues, state or local issues, or the candidates themselves? And this is in the congressional race across the country. We can't ignore the fact that a third of the people say it's the candidates.
There are a lot of idiosyncratic issues than any race. Like in the Senate in South Dakota, there's talk of allegation of fraud in the Indian reservation voting. Well, that's certainly something that's not going to occur in other states and so forth. You've got about 24 percent state and local issues, and then national issues, 33 percent.
What's interesting, Carol, is this 33 percent is higher than in the last four elections, so I think we are seeing a little more focus on those national issues than we might have in an ordinary election.
Here is a choice that we gave people. Is it Iraq, the possibility of war, or the economy that will be most important to you? And among likely voters, it's still Iraq rather than the economy, and that's very, very important, because -- and let me show you this here. There's no question that the Republicans have an advantage if it comes to foreign policy and the possibly of war on Iraq. This is which party could better handle it, and by a 50 to 32 margin, it's the Republicans. So, the more the focus is on foreign policy, the more Republican candidates can benefit.
Democrats have been desperately trying to focus on the bad economy, and consumer confidence is real low, as we all know, Carol, right now. But you find that the Democrats really don't have much of an advantage at all when it comes to who could do the better job on the economy.
So, that's a little tough for the Democrats. They don't have a real edge over the Republicans, even if people do focus on it.
This is the key: Will the focus be on foreign policy, domestic issues? That's what the battle is about in a lot of races right now, Carol.
LIN: Well, we've been seeing a lot of video of Saddam Hussein in these local election race ad campaigns, so obviously, the Republicans playing on their strength there.
Thanks so much -- Frank Newport live from Princeton, New Jersey.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired November 1, 2002 - 06:33 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: We're just five days away until Election Day. It's called a midterm election, not a national presidential campaign.
So, how many voters are likely to show up?
Frank Newport, Gallup Poll editor-in-chief, joins me live from Princeton, New Jersey with some more insight on that.
Hi, Frank. Good morning.
FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Good morning to you, Carol.
We are not anticipating a massive turnout by any means. Our measure of how much thought have you given to the election, Carol, simply shows Americans have been -- I hate to say it -- but relatively tuned out, at least up until the last measure that we took.
Let me compare this to 1998, which was the last midterm election. This is, "How much thought have you given to the election?" In '98, at a comparable time, roughly mid-October, it was 40 percent -- quite a lot of thought. Now it is 35 percent. So, we're just not even in the same ballpark.
By the way, Carol, that's a pretty low number, only 35 percent giving quite a lot of thought.
And look at this as well. We said, "Are you committed to your vote, or are you likely to shift?" This is another angle on the election, and you find this is how close the House is; 32 are committed to vote Republican, 31 committed to vote Democrat. That means 36 percent of the voters are in play right now.
So, you put the two together, Carol, two points here: One, get out the vote, extremely important in a low turnout election of who can get their people to the polls. And second, you've got quite a few voters that are still open to the blandishments, so to speak, of the candidates here in the last week of the campaign, Carol.
LIN: Interesting. Well, hopefully, interest will pick up in the next few days.
In the meantime, there have been so many other news stories dominating the news over the last month. You've had news about the economy, obviously gun safety lately, with the sniper issue going on up in the D.C. area. So, what's going to be important for voters in making up their minds at the polls?
NEWPORT: Well, that's the $64,000 question. Both parties, of course, desperately trying to get people to focus on the issues they think they do better on.
Let me show you, first of all, when we gave people a choice here, what's going to be important: national issues, state or local issues, or the candidates themselves? And this is in the congressional race across the country. We can't ignore the fact that a third of the people say it's the candidates.
There are a lot of idiosyncratic issues than any race. Like in the Senate in South Dakota, there's talk of allegation of fraud in the Indian reservation voting. Well, that's certainly something that's not going to occur in other states and so forth. You've got about 24 percent state and local issues, and then national issues, 33 percent.
What's interesting, Carol, is this 33 percent is higher than in the last four elections, so I think we are seeing a little more focus on those national issues than we might have in an ordinary election.
Here is a choice that we gave people. Is it Iraq, the possibility of war, or the economy that will be most important to you? And among likely voters, it's still Iraq rather than the economy, and that's very, very important, because -- and let me show you this here. There's no question that the Republicans have an advantage if it comes to foreign policy and the possibly of war on Iraq. This is which party could better handle it, and by a 50 to 32 margin, it's the Republicans. So, the more the focus is on foreign policy, the more Republican candidates can benefit.
Democrats have been desperately trying to focus on the bad economy, and consumer confidence is real low, as we all know, Carol, right now. But you find that the Democrats really don't have much of an advantage at all when it comes to who could do the better job on the economy.
So, that's a little tough for the Democrats. They don't have a real edge over the Republicans, even if people do focus on it.
This is the key: Will the focus be on foreign policy, domestic issues? That's what the battle is about in a lot of races right now, Carol.
LIN: Well, we've been seeing a lot of video of Saddam Hussein in these local election race ad campaigns, so obviously, the Republicans playing on their strength there.
Thanks so much -- Frank Newport live from Princeton, New Jersey.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
