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CNN Live At Daybreak

Keeping Track of the Poll Numbers

Aired November 04, 2002 - 05:51   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CATHERINE CALLAWAY, CNN ANCHOR: Tomorrow America votes. And Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup poll, is keeping track of all the numbers out there for us, at least the poll numbers, that is. He's joining us from Princeton, New Jersey.
Good morning to you.

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR, GALLUP POLL: Good morning, Catherine.

We can say that the House looks a little better for the Republicans based on our latest polling. Actually, this polling went on through yesterday afternoon, Catherine, Sunday afternoon. We just tabulated the numbers.

This is what we call the generic ballot. We ask Americans all over the country, "In your district for Congress" -- there are 435 of them, of course -- "who are you going to vote for, the Republican or the Democratic candidate?" And you can see, it's been very close, but in our last poll as of yesterday, Republicans pulled a little more ahead, 51 to 45.

Traditionally, this has been a pretty good predictor of House seats and it suggests to us that as a lot of pundits are saying, the Republicans are in a pretty good position, it looks like, to retain control of the House after the voting yesterday.

Now -- excuse me -- voting tomorrow.

The Senate's a different matter. We polled in four or five different states, just finished over the weekend, and a lot of them are simply too close to call. So I think the Senate, a lot of people are saying, and I would, too, still up in the air.

Missouri, South Dakota, Colorado, New Hampshire, Minnesota, all of these are these crucial states that everybody's been saying are too close to call. We polled. Republicans have a slight edge in some of these, but basically still within the margin of error. So anything could happen in these.

Catherine, Minnesota is the interesting state, of course, because this morning at 10 of course, Mondale will be there debating -- when he's been brought back into the race -- Norm Coleman. We'll see what happens and I think a lot could change based on that debate this morning in Minnesota -- Catherine.

CALLAWAY: It will be interesting to see what happens after that debate, if the numbers change. You know, President Bush was on the road this weekend, still on the road today, in fact, out there campaigning for the Republican Party. Is that going to make a difference in the polls?

NEWPORT: I think perhaps it has. His job approval rating, 63 percent. That's a lot higher, for example, than Reagan's was in '82, Clinton's was in 1994, both of them after their, two years after they first got elected. In fact, we asked people are you voting to support Bush or to oppose Bush? A lot of people said neither. But, look, of those, Catherine, who did say that Bush made a difference, it's about a two to one ratio saying they're voting to support Bush.

So everything we read into the data says that all this barnstorming by the president may be having an impact.

CALLAWAY: Wow. You know, I was just talking to Jimmy Barrett up in Virginia. He's saying that they're not expecting too many voters to actually turn out. What about the rest of the nation on Tuesday?

NEWPORT: Pretty depressing news for those people who believe in voting as the cornerstone of democracy. This is the question right before every election. We ask, "How much thought have you given to the upcoming election?" You can see back in 1994 it was 56 percent. But look at this, as of the weekend, just 43 percent, quite a lot, or some thought. And that's as low as we've seen it any of the times we've asked this question before an election. People are just not highly focused. And, of course, Catherine, that predicts average or below average turnout tomorrow, unless something exciting happens today that gets them all out to the polls.

CALLAWAY: All right, Frank, thank you very much.

Well, the elections are the big buzz in the Granite State this morning. Mark Ericson, Danielle Carrier, better known as the WOKQ waking crew in Portsmouth and Manchester, New Hampshire, on the phone with us this morning.

Actually, they're in Nashville this morning. They're there for the country music awards.

MARK ERICSON, WOKQ RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: Yes, we are.

CALLAWAY: You know, we're going to talk about the CMA awards in must a moment. But let's talk politics first.

You know, as we just heard Frank Newport say, one of the toughest races, tightest races so far is the Senate race there in New Hampshire with Governor Jeanne Shaheen and John Sununu too close to call.

ERICSON: Now, it is, indeed, too close to call. And as a matter of fact just late in the week last week one of our local colleges did a survey about the whole race, Franklin Pearce College and one of the local television stations, and everything still, to this moment, is too close to call. And on Friday, President Bush did a whistle stop one hour touch and go at Pease International Trade Port and was stumping for John Sununu in a quick, one hour appearance at Pease Airport.

And interestingly enough, then, he recorded, he recorded some telephone stuff and over the weekend automated telephone calls with the president's voce.

DANIELLE CARRIER, WOKQ RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: Yes, I got four phone calls from the president.

CALLAWAY: Wow.

ERICSON: Over the weekend.

CARRIER: Never met him, but I got four phone calls. It was pretty cool.

CALLAWAY: Yes, they're campaigning hard for their candidates. Some, also going after the independent voters in New Hampshire. A lot of independents.

ERICSON: A lot of independents are trying to get involved in things. But the major race is still the whole Shaheen-Sununu, which is just too darned close to call.

CALLAWAY: Yes. And what about the big issues there? Taxes a big issue between Sununu and Shaheen.

ERICSON: Well, as you are aware, then, New Hampshire is one of the few states left that still does not have a state income tax. Now, that has caused some financial difficulties, particularly in the state education system. Nobody to this point has a solution and whether or not an income tax is going to become a reality has been a big, big voting issue.

CARRIER: And it's not just income taxes. A lot of it has to do with Social Security and Medicare for our seniors.

ERICSON: Social Security and...

CARRIER: That's a huge issue, also.

ERICSON: ... whether or not that's going to get raided has been also bandied about by many of the politicians.

CALLAWAY: Well, all eyes are going to be watching New Hampshire on Tuesday to see what happens in that race.

Are you guys having a good time? Ready for the CMA?

ERICSON: We are ready for the CMA awards. It's the 36th annual CMA awards. It's happening Wednesday night live from the Grand Ole Opry. It is at eight o'clock Eastern time. Vince Gill will be hosting once again this year. It'll be on CBS Television. Believe it or not, at 3:00 a.m. Nashville time this morning, they were still rehearsing over at the Grande Ole Opry. We came by and there were bands playing and music going and everything is getting ready. Alan Jackson should have a big night, a record 10 nominations this year for Alan Jackson. So we shall see.

CALLAWAY: He's a Georgia boy. Yes. You go, Alan.

All right, Mark and Danielle, have a great day.

ERICSON: Thank you, Catherine.

CALLAWAY: We have loads of political coverage ahead on DAYBREAK and throughout the day right here on CNN. Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider is going to stop by in our next hour to give us the latest on the CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll. Stay with us, everyone.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired November 4, 2002 - 05:51   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CATHERINE CALLAWAY, CNN ANCHOR: Tomorrow America votes. And Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup poll, is keeping track of all the numbers out there for us, at least the poll numbers, that is. He's joining us from Princeton, New Jersey.
Good morning to you.

FRANK NEWPORT, EDITOR, GALLUP POLL: Good morning, Catherine.

We can say that the House looks a little better for the Republicans based on our latest polling. Actually, this polling went on through yesterday afternoon, Catherine, Sunday afternoon. We just tabulated the numbers.

This is what we call the generic ballot. We ask Americans all over the country, "In your district for Congress" -- there are 435 of them, of course -- "who are you going to vote for, the Republican or the Democratic candidate?" And you can see, it's been very close, but in our last poll as of yesterday, Republicans pulled a little more ahead, 51 to 45.

Traditionally, this has been a pretty good predictor of House seats and it suggests to us that as a lot of pundits are saying, the Republicans are in a pretty good position, it looks like, to retain control of the House after the voting yesterday.

Now -- excuse me -- voting tomorrow.

The Senate's a different matter. We polled in four or five different states, just finished over the weekend, and a lot of them are simply too close to call. So I think the Senate, a lot of people are saying, and I would, too, still up in the air.

Missouri, South Dakota, Colorado, New Hampshire, Minnesota, all of these are these crucial states that everybody's been saying are too close to call. We polled. Republicans have a slight edge in some of these, but basically still within the margin of error. So anything could happen in these.

Catherine, Minnesota is the interesting state, of course, because this morning at 10 of course, Mondale will be there debating -- when he's been brought back into the race -- Norm Coleman. We'll see what happens and I think a lot could change based on that debate this morning in Minnesota -- Catherine.

CALLAWAY: It will be interesting to see what happens after that debate, if the numbers change. You know, President Bush was on the road this weekend, still on the road today, in fact, out there campaigning for the Republican Party. Is that going to make a difference in the polls?

NEWPORT: I think perhaps it has. His job approval rating, 63 percent. That's a lot higher, for example, than Reagan's was in '82, Clinton's was in 1994, both of them after their, two years after they first got elected. In fact, we asked people are you voting to support Bush or to oppose Bush? A lot of people said neither. But, look, of those, Catherine, who did say that Bush made a difference, it's about a two to one ratio saying they're voting to support Bush.

So everything we read into the data says that all this barnstorming by the president may be having an impact.

CALLAWAY: Wow. You know, I was just talking to Jimmy Barrett up in Virginia. He's saying that they're not expecting too many voters to actually turn out. What about the rest of the nation on Tuesday?

NEWPORT: Pretty depressing news for those people who believe in voting as the cornerstone of democracy. This is the question right before every election. We ask, "How much thought have you given to the upcoming election?" You can see back in 1994 it was 56 percent. But look at this, as of the weekend, just 43 percent, quite a lot, or some thought. And that's as low as we've seen it any of the times we've asked this question before an election. People are just not highly focused. And, of course, Catherine, that predicts average or below average turnout tomorrow, unless something exciting happens today that gets them all out to the polls.

CALLAWAY: All right, Frank, thank you very much.

Well, the elections are the big buzz in the Granite State this morning. Mark Ericson, Danielle Carrier, better known as the WOKQ waking crew in Portsmouth and Manchester, New Hampshire, on the phone with us this morning.

Actually, they're in Nashville this morning. They're there for the country music awards.

MARK ERICSON, WOKQ RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: Yes, we are.

CALLAWAY: You know, we're going to talk about the CMA awards in must a moment. But let's talk politics first.

You know, as we just heard Frank Newport say, one of the toughest races, tightest races so far is the Senate race there in New Hampshire with Governor Jeanne Shaheen and John Sununu too close to call.

ERICSON: Now, it is, indeed, too close to call. And as a matter of fact just late in the week last week one of our local colleges did a survey about the whole race, Franklin Pearce College and one of the local television stations, and everything still, to this moment, is too close to call. And on Friday, President Bush did a whistle stop one hour touch and go at Pease International Trade Port and was stumping for John Sununu in a quick, one hour appearance at Pease Airport.

And interestingly enough, then, he recorded, he recorded some telephone stuff and over the weekend automated telephone calls with the president's voce.

DANIELLE CARRIER, WOKQ RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: Yes, I got four phone calls from the president.

CALLAWAY: Wow.

ERICSON: Over the weekend.

CARRIER: Never met him, but I got four phone calls. It was pretty cool.

CALLAWAY: Yes, they're campaigning hard for their candidates. Some, also going after the independent voters in New Hampshire. A lot of independents.

ERICSON: A lot of independents are trying to get involved in things. But the major race is still the whole Shaheen-Sununu, which is just too darned close to call.

CALLAWAY: Yes. And what about the big issues there? Taxes a big issue between Sununu and Shaheen.

ERICSON: Well, as you are aware, then, New Hampshire is one of the few states left that still does not have a state income tax. Now, that has caused some financial difficulties, particularly in the state education system. Nobody to this point has a solution and whether or not an income tax is going to become a reality has been a big, big voting issue.

CARRIER: And it's not just income taxes. A lot of it has to do with Social Security and Medicare for our seniors.

ERICSON: Social Security and...

CARRIER: That's a huge issue, also.

ERICSON: ... whether or not that's going to get raided has been also bandied about by many of the politicians.

CALLAWAY: Well, all eyes are going to be watching New Hampshire on Tuesday to see what happens in that race.

Are you guys having a good time? Ready for the CMA?

ERICSON: We are ready for the CMA awards. It's the 36th annual CMA awards. It's happening Wednesday night live from the Grand Ole Opry. It is at eight o'clock Eastern time. Vince Gill will be hosting once again this year. It'll be on CBS Television. Believe it or not, at 3:00 a.m. Nashville time this morning, they were still rehearsing over at the Grande Ole Opry. We came by and there were bands playing and music going and everything is getting ready. Alan Jackson should have a big night, a record 10 nominations this year for Alan Jackson. So we shall see.

CALLAWAY: He's a Georgia boy. Yes. You go, Alan.

All right, Mark and Danielle, have a great day.

ERICSON: Thank you, Catherine.

CALLAWAY: We have loads of political coverage ahead on DAYBREAK and throughout the day right here on CNN. Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider is going to stop by in our next hour to give us the latest on the CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll. Stay with us, everyone.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com