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CNN Live At Daybreak
Perspective on Today's Big Races and Big Issues
Aired November 05, 2002 - 06:34 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CATHERINE CALLAWAY, CNN ANCHOR: For some perspective on today's big races and big issues, we turn to some of the experts out there. Amy Walter of "The Cook Political Report" is with us here in Atlanta, and political analyst, Ron Brownstein with the "Los Angeles Times" is in Washington.
Are you ready, Ron?
RON BROWNSTEIN, POLITICAL ANALYST: I'm ready -- good morning.
CALLAWAY: Good morning. We were trying to get everybody hooked up during that piece by Carol Lin. And speaking of that piece by Carol Lin, why don't we start with that race with Jeanne Carnahan and Jim Talent? It's just a virtual deadlock in that race.
Ron, what do you think?
BROWNSTEIN: I give a slight edge to Talent. Usually if you're this close heading in and the incumbent officeholder is under 50, you have to give an edge to the challenger. The polls have been a little big divergent, but I think Republicans feel more confident about Talent than any of their other challengers, the Democratic incumbents.
CALLAWAY: Do you agree with that?
AMY WALTER, "THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT": Yes, I would definitely agree, but I mean, this has been a very, very tight, a very competitive race for months now. And for Jeanne Carnahan, the big struggle for her was to be able to get another term under her belt. This is -- she's on a very short term, a very short tenure because of how she got to office, so this has been really a fun race to watch.
CALLAWAY: I want to touch briefly on Minnesota, just because it has received so much attention, of course, with the tragic death of Wellstone, and now we had the debate yesterday. Very rarely do you see that the day before elections.
So, what do you think is going to be the outcome of that? Is that going to be one of these that could tip the balance?
WALTER: It certainly could. Personally, I also think that we might not know the answer to who is the winner by tonight, because of how the ballots are set up and just how close this race has been.
I think when this first started to come together, there was some suggestion that this was going to be a runaway win for former Vice President Mondale, and I think today, this is a very, very close race. CALLAWAY: Ron, what do you think?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, Catherine, and really, you look at Missouri, Minnesota and South Dakota, you see a very similar political equation for the Democrats in all three states. These are states where rural and small town voters have moved sharply for the GOP in the last two cycles.
And whether it was Wellstone or Mondale, or Carnahan in Missouri, or Tim Johnson in South Dakota, they all face the same challenge. They have to recapture some of these cultural conservative, usually pro-gun voters if they are going to hold onto these states, and that really is the critical variable for them across the region.
CALLAWAY: And do you think the heavy hitters that we saw out there campaigning for their candidates -- President Bush out there, we saw former President Clinton. Is that going to make a difference in those areas?
BROWNSTEIN: It gives them a little bit of a boost. I mean, Clinton is focused more on boosting minority turnout for Democrats. They used (ph) a conference call with 2,000 black ministers on Friday. He was doing automated calls. Bush is trying to push out the Republican base.
Many of these states are so closely divided at this point that every little edge helps, and in a close race -- like in New Hampshire, where I was yesterday -- maybe it could be an advantage for the Republicans to have the president come in, sure.
CALLAWAY: We've been talking a lot about the governors' races, also incredibly tight in a number of these important states.
First, Ron, why do you think these are important races, the governors' races?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, because it's where most of domestic policy happens these days, really. And both parties over the last decade, the trend has been towards evolving power and decisions from Washington to the states, and the states now really are in dire shape. You have the kind of fiscal problems that we haven't seen since the early 1990s.
So, there are going to be critical decisions about what get spared, what goes under the axe, and how many of the federal laws -- for example, the education reform law, the welfare reform law, children's health -- how those are implemented. The governors have enormous discretion.
CALLAWAY: Thirty-six states electing governors today. You know, what do you think about the race in Georgia? That's a prime example of what Ron was just talking about.
WALTER: It certainly is. You know, I think what's also interesting to look at is that these are also breeding grounds for the next president. We talk a lot about -- we've obviously seen it in the last two elections -- that we've elected presidents who are executives.
And so, I think it's really important that we look at who these folks are that we're going to elect tonight, and where they're able to go in the future. And in this state, for example, Larry Barnes (ph) has been talked about sometimes as a future presidential hopeful. We'll see if that's the case. He's favored today in his election.
CALLAWAY: Yes, if you look back at recent history, all governors, former governors.
Well, Ron, you know, we've had this Florida recount situation in the last major election. We're seeing a lot of changes in some of the polling -- the way the votes are going to be taken this election. Is that going to make a difference? Are we going to see more complications arise into the wee hours of the morning?
BROWNSTEIN: As Amy said, I think we're probably going to see more disputes. It almost feels as though our election machinery is not engineered to the level of tolerance it needs for the kind of parity we have in so many of these states.
CALLAWAY: Right.
BROWNSTEIN: The elections are closer than our system can deal with it. I mean, it's easy to imagine litigation in Minnesota over absentee ballots if there is a very close race.
In Louisiana, under their system, if Mary Landrieu doesn't get 50 percent of the vote today, she has to face the second-place finisher a month from now in December. So, there can be questions about -- that vote is obviously crucial, because the balance of the Senate could hang on a single race that is fought out through the month of November.
There probably are going to be disputes in many places. An interesting thing will be whether the Florida governor's race is close enough between Bill McBride and Jeb Bush to generate any of those kinds of controversies.
CALLAWAY: It sounds like a recipe for disaster. You have tight races and new voting machines. What are we going to see happen?
WALTER: Well, I think you're going to see a lot of what Ron brought up; that you could see some litigation. I also think you're going to see some long lines, you're going to see some people struggling with the new machinery.
And it does seem really unfair to think that there are folks who are sitting and waiting to try to vote, and they just can't do it. We've been able to do a lot with DNA and other things. You'd think we could figure out how to...
CALLAWAY: How to vote, right?
WALTER: ... have (ph) machinery that we can do.
BROWNSTEIN: We can send a man to the moon.
WALTER: That's right. I mean, how hard can it be to actually count votes?
CALLAWAY: Well, it's going to be long night for you, Amy, and for you, Ron, because we've got to have you fill time while we're waiting for all of the election hoo-ha (ph) to be straightened out. Thank you both for being with us.
WALTER: Thanks a lot.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired November 5, 2002 - 06:34 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CATHERINE CALLAWAY, CNN ANCHOR: For some perspective on today's big races and big issues, we turn to some of the experts out there. Amy Walter of "The Cook Political Report" is with us here in Atlanta, and political analyst, Ron Brownstein with the "Los Angeles Times" is in Washington.
Are you ready, Ron?
RON BROWNSTEIN, POLITICAL ANALYST: I'm ready -- good morning.
CALLAWAY: Good morning. We were trying to get everybody hooked up during that piece by Carol Lin. And speaking of that piece by Carol Lin, why don't we start with that race with Jeanne Carnahan and Jim Talent? It's just a virtual deadlock in that race.
Ron, what do you think?
BROWNSTEIN: I give a slight edge to Talent. Usually if you're this close heading in and the incumbent officeholder is under 50, you have to give an edge to the challenger. The polls have been a little big divergent, but I think Republicans feel more confident about Talent than any of their other challengers, the Democratic incumbents.
CALLAWAY: Do you agree with that?
AMY WALTER, "THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT": Yes, I would definitely agree, but I mean, this has been a very, very tight, a very competitive race for months now. And for Jeanne Carnahan, the big struggle for her was to be able to get another term under her belt. This is -- she's on a very short term, a very short tenure because of how she got to office, so this has been really a fun race to watch.
CALLAWAY: I want to touch briefly on Minnesota, just because it has received so much attention, of course, with the tragic death of Wellstone, and now we had the debate yesterday. Very rarely do you see that the day before elections.
So, what do you think is going to be the outcome of that? Is that going to be one of these that could tip the balance?
WALTER: It certainly could. Personally, I also think that we might not know the answer to who is the winner by tonight, because of how the ballots are set up and just how close this race has been.
I think when this first started to come together, there was some suggestion that this was going to be a runaway win for former Vice President Mondale, and I think today, this is a very, very close race. CALLAWAY: Ron, what do you think?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, Catherine, and really, you look at Missouri, Minnesota and South Dakota, you see a very similar political equation for the Democrats in all three states. These are states where rural and small town voters have moved sharply for the GOP in the last two cycles.
And whether it was Wellstone or Mondale, or Carnahan in Missouri, or Tim Johnson in South Dakota, they all face the same challenge. They have to recapture some of these cultural conservative, usually pro-gun voters if they are going to hold onto these states, and that really is the critical variable for them across the region.
CALLAWAY: And do you think the heavy hitters that we saw out there campaigning for their candidates -- President Bush out there, we saw former President Clinton. Is that going to make a difference in those areas?
BROWNSTEIN: It gives them a little bit of a boost. I mean, Clinton is focused more on boosting minority turnout for Democrats. They used (ph) a conference call with 2,000 black ministers on Friday. He was doing automated calls. Bush is trying to push out the Republican base.
Many of these states are so closely divided at this point that every little edge helps, and in a close race -- like in New Hampshire, where I was yesterday -- maybe it could be an advantage for the Republicans to have the president come in, sure.
CALLAWAY: We've been talking a lot about the governors' races, also incredibly tight in a number of these important states.
First, Ron, why do you think these are important races, the governors' races?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, because it's where most of domestic policy happens these days, really. And both parties over the last decade, the trend has been towards evolving power and decisions from Washington to the states, and the states now really are in dire shape. You have the kind of fiscal problems that we haven't seen since the early 1990s.
So, there are going to be critical decisions about what get spared, what goes under the axe, and how many of the federal laws -- for example, the education reform law, the welfare reform law, children's health -- how those are implemented. The governors have enormous discretion.
CALLAWAY: Thirty-six states electing governors today. You know, what do you think about the race in Georgia? That's a prime example of what Ron was just talking about.
WALTER: It certainly is. You know, I think what's also interesting to look at is that these are also breeding grounds for the next president. We talk a lot about -- we've obviously seen it in the last two elections -- that we've elected presidents who are executives.
And so, I think it's really important that we look at who these folks are that we're going to elect tonight, and where they're able to go in the future. And in this state, for example, Larry Barnes (ph) has been talked about sometimes as a future presidential hopeful. We'll see if that's the case. He's favored today in his election.
CALLAWAY: Yes, if you look back at recent history, all governors, former governors.
Well, Ron, you know, we've had this Florida recount situation in the last major election. We're seeing a lot of changes in some of the polling -- the way the votes are going to be taken this election. Is that going to make a difference? Are we going to see more complications arise into the wee hours of the morning?
BROWNSTEIN: As Amy said, I think we're probably going to see more disputes. It almost feels as though our election machinery is not engineered to the level of tolerance it needs for the kind of parity we have in so many of these states.
CALLAWAY: Right.
BROWNSTEIN: The elections are closer than our system can deal with it. I mean, it's easy to imagine litigation in Minnesota over absentee ballots if there is a very close race.
In Louisiana, under their system, if Mary Landrieu doesn't get 50 percent of the vote today, she has to face the second-place finisher a month from now in December. So, there can be questions about -- that vote is obviously crucial, because the balance of the Senate could hang on a single race that is fought out through the month of November.
There probably are going to be disputes in many places. An interesting thing will be whether the Florida governor's race is close enough between Bill McBride and Jeb Bush to generate any of those kinds of controversies.
CALLAWAY: It sounds like a recipe for disaster. You have tight races and new voting machines. What are we going to see happen?
WALTER: Well, I think you're going to see a lot of what Ron brought up; that you could see some litigation. I also think you're going to see some long lines, you're going to see some people struggling with the new machinery.
And it does seem really unfair to think that there are folks who are sitting and waiting to try to vote, and they just can't do it. We've been able to do a lot with DNA and other things. You'd think we could figure out how to...
CALLAWAY: How to vote, right?
WALTER: ... have (ph) machinery that we can do.
BROWNSTEIN: We can send a man to the moon.
WALTER: That's right. I mean, how hard can it be to actually count votes?
CALLAWAY: Well, it's going to be long night for you, Amy, and for you, Ron, because we've got to have you fill time while we're waiting for all of the election hoo-ha (ph) to be straightened out. Thank you both for being with us.
WALTER: Thanks a lot.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
