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Stuart Rothenberg Looks at Close Elections

Aired November 05, 2002 - 10:38   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Let's turn now to our next guest this morning and get some analysis. As well as something of a preview of some of the races to watch today. Analyst Stuart Rothenberg of "The Rothenberg Political Report" joins us with a closer look. Good to see you here in the flesh finally.
STUART ROTHENBERG, "THE ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Thanks, Leon.

HARRIS: Let's start off talking about some of the gubernatorial races particularly the ones with women running this time around.

ROTHENBERG: Right. There are ten women running in nine states. Two candidates in Hawaii. Hawaii will have a female governor. This class of 10 is actually the largest in history. In 1994 there were nine states, nine candidates running. This is significant class of women candidates.

HARRIS: OK, but this class then, how many of them actually have a great chance of winning? As far as the polls look right now.

ROTHENBERG: There are a bunch of them that have an extremely good chance. Aside from Hawaii, in Kansas, Democrat Kathleen Sebelius, the state-wide elected official, is likely to win that state. I know it is a Republican state and she is a Democrat, but she is likely to win. In Michigan, Jennifer Granholm, the state attorney general almost certainly will win, a very attractive candidate. There are strong candidates in Rhode Island, Arizona, Massachusetts. Some will win and some will lose.

HARRIS: That could pay off dividends down the road for women

ROTHENBERG: This is simply the normal development of women as political candidates. They weren't as active in the political process as men for decades. They've started holding office, local office, state legislative office, and they're moving up the ranks. I think we'll see more women running for all offices.

HARRIS: Lets look at some of the Senate races that we were talking about. Actually, I am sorry we want to talk about one particular race before we move of to governor's. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the current lieutenant governor in Maryland. She is now locked into what has become a dead heat race with Bob Ehrlich. What has happened with this race, because at one point it looked as though it would be a walk for Townsend al least it would have been an easier road at home. ROTHENBERG: A year ago we had it as safe Democratic. I mean that's Maryland. If you have a "D" behind your name and a pulse, you have a pretty good chance of being elected. The lieutenant governor has two problems: One, the sitting governor is not particularly popular. And her second problem is that she has not sold personally. So the state has economic problems, budget problems, as many states do. She's not a particularly dynamic figure, she hasn't separated herself from the Governor. Bob Ehrlich is a kind of a blue collar guy who grew up in a working class family, got a scholarship to a prep school, was a football player, Princeton. I think he was co-captain of the team. He's really got a blue collar style. I think Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is in serious, serious trouble. If I had to put a nickel on it, I'd probably put it on Erhlich right now. It's going to be a very close race.

HARRIS: Let's see where you put your nickels with the Senate races. We've been talking for the last couple of days about how there's going to be this big tie-up because everything seems to be split right down the middle. But it isn't as simple as that because there's going to be trade-offs, at least that's the way the polls are shaping up right now in certain states. Democratic Senate seats, there are some that are vulnerable and maybe switching over to Republican and likewise the other way with Republican going to Democrat.

Let's talk about a couple of those. Colorado, with Wayne Allard and Tom Strickland.

ROTHENBERG: This is a repeat. Same two candidates ran against each other six years ago. Wayne Allard won by about five points. He is I think has failed to establish a strong profile for himself in the state. He's been running even or behind and well below 50 percent for some time. There's a third candidate who is a Libertarian getting about 3 percent of the vote. They've been attacking one another on corporate accountability. Each one is tied to a big telecom company. This race is a pure toss-up. Republicans feel that they pulled ahead slightly. But the Democrats think they'll win it.

HARRIS: Now, in Missouri -- let's go to that one right now. Jean Carnahan who was appointed to fill the seat of Mel Carnahan, her husband who died in a plane crash, she is all of a sudden in a tight race with Jim Talent.

ROTHENBERG: Jim Talent is a former congressman. Ran state wide two years ago for governor, lost very narrowly some people believe that his loss, in fact, is at least partially a function of the plane crash, as well, where Democrats got a surge. Talent is an attractive figure. He's conservative. He doesn't seem particularly scary. The polls suggest he's even or ahead. Public polls have him ahead by three or four points. I spoke to a Democratic strategist who said, No, our numbers show it's even. I think the smart money right now is for a takeover for Jim Talent to win.

HARRIS: How here about in Georgia: There's been another incredibly tightening race in the last couple of weeks between Saxby Chambliss and Max Cleland, who was a war hero, who really seemed again he would be a strong candidate, incumbent, Democratic here, in the state, but all of a sudden we're seeing him in trouble here.

ROTHENBERG: This is one of those states where we knew there was going to be tightening in the race, we knew it would be a close race. The early numbers suggested a blowout for Cleland. That doesn't make sense. The question is it natural tightening or Saxby Chambliss getting some momentum? It's hard to tell. I still think that the senator has a slight advantage, but there is a lot of buzz around Georgia that maybe there's an upset brewing.

HARRIS: OK, now, combine those with the race in Arkansas where Tim Hutchinson right now might be losing to Mark Pryor. Those are the cases where we might be seeing some switching of the parties. That means in the end it may all come down to Louisiana, which we said may be happening in the decision with what happens to the balance of power.

ROTHENBERG: It could well. The Democrats are certainly likely to pick up Arkansas. That could put the focus on December 7, Louisiana Senate race, Mary Landrieu in a run-up if she doesn't get 50 percent of the vote.

HARRIS: One last one. Can't let you go without asking about our favorite here: Jim Traficant. All right, he's in jail right now and he is waging his campaign. This is an ad he taped right before he went to jail. What do you make of this?

ROTHENBERG: Well, some people might say that maybe he's the only candidate in jail, but others should be in jail. Look, nobody ever underestimates Jim Traficant. I'm sure there is this secret Jim Traficant vote out there. A lot of people don't want to admit they'll vote for Jim Traficant and subscribe just a think. We think the Democrats are going to hold the seat, but if Traficant gets 20-25 percent of the vote, maybe the Republican could sneak off with it. Jim Traficant is a one of a kind.

HARRIS: We have seen everything else in the last election cycle. Why not?

ROTHENBERG: Why not, indeed.

HARRIS: All right, Stu Rothenberg, good to see you. Thanks a lot.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired November 5, 2002 - 10:38   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Let's turn now to our next guest this morning and get some analysis. As well as something of a preview of some of the races to watch today. Analyst Stuart Rothenberg of "The Rothenberg Political Report" joins us with a closer look. Good to see you here in the flesh finally.
STUART ROTHENBERG, "THE ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Thanks, Leon.

HARRIS: Let's start off talking about some of the gubernatorial races particularly the ones with women running this time around.

ROTHENBERG: Right. There are ten women running in nine states. Two candidates in Hawaii. Hawaii will have a female governor. This class of 10 is actually the largest in history. In 1994 there were nine states, nine candidates running. This is significant class of women candidates.

HARRIS: OK, but this class then, how many of them actually have a great chance of winning? As far as the polls look right now.

ROTHENBERG: There are a bunch of them that have an extremely good chance. Aside from Hawaii, in Kansas, Democrat Kathleen Sebelius, the state-wide elected official, is likely to win that state. I know it is a Republican state and she is a Democrat, but she is likely to win. In Michigan, Jennifer Granholm, the state attorney general almost certainly will win, a very attractive candidate. There are strong candidates in Rhode Island, Arizona, Massachusetts. Some will win and some will lose.

HARRIS: That could pay off dividends down the road for women

ROTHENBERG: This is simply the normal development of women as political candidates. They weren't as active in the political process as men for decades. They've started holding office, local office, state legislative office, and they're moving up the ranks. I think we'll see more women running for all offices.

HARRIS: Lets look at some of the Senate races that we were talking about. Actually, I am sorry we want to talk about one particular race before we move of to governor's. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the current lieutenant governor in Maryland. She is now locked into what has become a dead heat race with Bob Ehrlich. What has happened with this race, because at one point it looked as though it would be a walk for Townsend al least it would have been an easier road at home. ROTHENBERG: A year ago we had it as safe Democratic. I mean that's Maryland. If you have a "D" behind your name and a pulse, you have a pretty good chance of being elected. The lieutenant governor has two problems: One, the sitting governor is not particularly popular. And her second problem is that she has not sold personally. So the state has economic problems, budget problems, as many states do. She's not a particularly dynamic figure, she hasn't separated herself from the Governor. Bob Ehrlich is a kind of a blue collar guy who grew up in a working class family, got a scholarship to a prep school, was a football player, Princeton. I think he was co-captain of the team. He's really got a blue collar style. I think Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is in serious, serious trouble. If I had to put a nickel on it, I'd probably put it on Erhlich right now. It's going to be a very close race.

HARRIS: Let's see where you put your nickels with the Senate races. We've been talking for the last couple of days about how there's going to be this big tie-up because everything seems to be split right down the middle. But it isn't as simple as that because there's going to be trade-offs, at least that's the way the polls are shaping up right now in certain states. Democratic Senate seats, there are some that are vulnerable and maybe switching over to Republican and likewise the other way with Republican going to Democrat.

Let's talk about a couple of those. Colorado, with Wayne Allard and Tom Strickland.

ROTHENBERG: This is a repeat. Same two candidates ran against each other six years ago. Wayne Allard won by about five points. He is I think has failed to establish a strong profile for himself in the state. He's been running even or behind and well below 50 percent for some time. There's a third candidate who is a Libertarian getting about 3 percent of the vote. They've been attacking one another on corporate accountability. Each one is tied to a big telecom company. This race is a pure toss-up. Republicans feel that they pulled ahead slightly. But the Democrats think they'll win it.

HARRIS: Now, in Missouri -- let's go to that one right now. Jean Carnahan who was appointed to fill the seat of Mel Carnahan, her husband who died in a plane crash, she is all of a sudden in a tight race with Jim Talent.

ROTHENBERG: Jim Talent is a former congressman. Ran state wide two years ago for governor, lost very narrowly some people believe that his loss, in fact, is at least partially a function of the plane crash, as well, where Democrats got a surge. Talent is an attractive figure. He's conservative. He doesn't seem particularly scary. The polls suggest he's even or ahead. Public polls have him ahead by three or four points. I spoke to a Democratic strategist who said, No, our numbers show it's even. I think the smart money right now is for a takeover for Jim Talent to win.

HARRIS: How here about in Georgia: There's been another incredibly tightening race in the last couple of weeks between Saxby Chambliss and Max Cleland, who was a war hero, who really seemed again he would be a strong candidate, incumbent, Democratic here, in the state, but all of a sudden we're seeing him in trouble here.

ROTHENBERG: This is one of those states where we knew there was going to be tightening in the race, we knew it would be a close race. The early numbers suggested a blowout for Cleland. That doesn't make sense. The question is it natural tightening or Saxby Chambliss getting some momentum? It's hard to tell. I still think that the senator has a slight advantage, but there is a lot of buzz around Georgia that maybe there's an upset brewing.

HARRIS: OK, now, combine those with the race in Arkansas where Tim Hutchinson right now might be losing to Mark Pryor. Those are the cases where we might be seeing some switching of the parties. That means in the end it may all come down to Louisiana, which we said may be happening in the decision with what happens to the balance of power.

ROTHENBERG: It could well. The Democrats are certainly likely to pick up Arkansas. That could put the focus on December 7, Louisiana Senate race, Mary Landrieu in a run-up if she doesn't get 50 percent of the vote.

HARRIS: One last one. Can't let you go without asking about our favorite here: Jim Traficant. All right, he's in jail right now and he is waging his campaign. This is an ad he taped right before he went to jail. What do you make of this?

ROTHENBERG: Well, some people might say that maybe he's the only candidate in jail, but others should be in jail. Look, nobody ever underestimates Jim Traficant. I'm sure there is this secret Jim Traficant vote out there. A lot of people don't want to admit they'll vote for Jim Traficant and subscribe just a think. We think the Democrats are going to hold the seat, but if Traficant gets 20-25 percent of the vote, maybe the Republican could sneak off with it. Jim Traficant is a one of a kind.

HARRIS: We have seen everything else in the last election cycle. Why not?

ROTHENBERG: Why not, indeed.

HARRIS: All right, Stu Rothenberg, good to see you. Thanks a lot.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com