Return to Transcripts main page
American Morning
Republican Party Taking Control
Aired November 06, 2002 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANNOUNCER: This is a special edition of AMERICAN MORNING for Wednesday, November 6,2002.
From CNN Center in Atlanta, here's Paula Zahn.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Welcome from Atlanta. Glad to have you with us for this special edition of AMERICAN MORNING.
The Republican Party is taking control, control of the Senate, control of the House and control of key statehouses, as well. The 2002 election is a big victory for President Bush, who campaigned very hard for Republicans across the country, 17 stops in some five days. We're going to get you caught up on all the results and talk about why the Republicans won so big and what it means for all of us.
Bill Hemmer happens to be reporting from Miami, where he has been for the last 24 hours or so, where the president's brother survived a very strong Democratic challenge.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Yes.
ZAHN: In the end, though, it was a bit of a blow out, wasn't it, Bill?
HEMMER: Yes, 13 points, Paula, with about 99 percent reported. The most generous projections had put George Bush at eight points. Most had him in right about six. But really an absolute blowout when you add it up.
The other big story out of Florida, Paula, is that the Sunshine State got it right. Two years later and $32 million in election reform, no major snafus to report from yesterday. And across the state, Floridians quite glad and quite relieved about that news.
More in a moment here from south Florida.
ZAHN: Thanks, Bill.
Look forward to it.
Jack Cafferty has the day off. Here with me at election headquarters is Tucker Carlson.
Are you going to gloat, even though the Republican Party, I guess, sent out a memo to Senate and House leaders not to gloat?
TUCKER CARLSON, "CROSSFIRE" CO-HOST: Well, you know, Senator Trent Lott just said a moment ago to you, there's no time for gloating, to which I say there is always time for gloating. Gloating is the best part. And since I work on "Crossfire" I gloat for a living. So I can't wait.
Yes, I think there are two interesting things to look for. One, as somebody said this morning, a Democrat, this is a sea change for Democrats. It's time to rethink what the party stands for, who leads it, and that will happen.
And, two, this is a mandate for the president. What's he going to do with it? I think he's going to use it to prosecute a war. I think it's dropped from the headlines in the past two weeks. I think there will be a war in Iraq and I think the president's popularity is going to be key to his ability to explain it to the American public.
ZAHN: I want to throw out a quick question to you that John Zogby, a pollster, polled the other night. He was saying that Karl Rove's strategy was masterful and he sort of suggests it was the wag the dog theory. By calling attention to the debate on Iraq, the attention on the economy diminished.
CARLSON: Only...
ZAHN: Any truth to that?
CARLSON: The old conspiracy, the wag the dog, that, you know, Colin Powell, I guess, is in on this conspiracy. I don't know, Bill Schneider was just saying at a commercial break, and it sounded right to me, that the economy is still the chief concern of most people and was up to and through this midterm election. The problem is, for the Democrats, is simply the public didn't blame the White House for economic woes, but people are still worried about the economy above all.
So the idea that people somehow forgot that their 401Ks were in trouble, not true.
ZAHN: Will you hang around with us this morning?
CARLSON: Yes, ma'am, I'll be here.
ZAHN: Please stand by.
Thanks, Tucker. Glad to have you with us.
It is a surprisingly strong showing for the Republican Party as it takes back the Senate and holds the House. The Minnesota Senate race wasn't called until about two hours ago. Republican Norm Coleman was declared the winner against former Vice President Walter Mondale, who was called in after the death of Senator Paul Wellstone.
The president's hard work paid off in the House of Representatives, too. Republicans not only retained control of the House, but picked up several seats, as well. Of course, the president's coattails helped his brother out, too. Jeb Bush keeping control of the Florida statehouse. And one of last night's big surprises, Georgia, where Republicans unseated a Democratic senator and the governor there.
Let's quickly go back to Bill in Miami for the latest on the Minnesota race -- Bill.
HEMMER: Paula, a lot of attention given to St. Paul, especially with the tragic and untimely death of Senator Paul Wellstone. Walter Mondale stepping in, age 74,a lot of critics on that front, but a lot of other people saying Mondale's experience will help carry the day for the Democrats. It does not appear to be the case at all.
Bob Franken tracking that from Minnesota this morning. Any reaction thus far, Bob, from the Mondale camp?
BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we're going to probably get it in the next couple of hours. In the next couple of hours, which is ten o'clock Eastern, nine o'clock here, there's going to be a news conference here at Mondale headquarters. But the people who are on the staff say they don't know yet whether it's going to be the candidate himself or whether it's going to be some operative. They don't know yet whether they will be ready to concede which, of course, would be that the role that Walter Mondale would play if he came here. They aren't ready to say yet that they accept the projections from news organizations like CNN that Norm Coleman has won the race.
However, it should be pointed out that there were some analysts last night already saying that even with the long delays and the closeness of this election, the trend seemed to be going to Coleman. The inching away by Coleman in the morning results suggested to the analysts that, in fact, it was time to make the projection.
The Mondale people yet have not had their meeting to decide whether this will be the time that the candidate comes out and concedes. And, of course, this was an election that had a massive, massive turnout. It was an energized campaign. On the one hand, the Democrats energized by the death of Paul Wellstone and the emergence in the race of that political icon to their party, Walter Mondale. And on the other side, the Republicans energized by both visits from President Bush, his wife and the vice president in the last weekend of the campaign, as well as an uproar among Republicans about a memorial service to Wellstone that they felt turned into a political rally.
And that seems to have really gotten them out in numbers, huge numbers, enough, it appears, to make Norm Coleman the person who's going to Washington as the next United States senator from Minnesota -- Bill.
HEMMER: Yes, let's move further West, Bob -- thanks to you, Bob Franken in Minnesota -- to South Dakota now and Jonathan Karl, who's watching another very close Senate race there, picking up this morning for us.
Jonathan, good morning to you.
JONATHAN KARL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Bill, they don't do hanging chads here in South Dakota, but they're about to do a recount. We now have 748 votes separating the Republican, who is in the lead, John Thune, and the Democrat, Tim Johnson, who is trailing. But here's what's interesting. We have five of the state's 844 precincts that have not yet reported. Four of those precincts that haven't reported on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservations and Native Americans have been voting big time for the Democrat. That could switch this around.
There's about 1,500 votes left to count on that Pine Ridge Indian Reservation. So this thing could be a real nail biter right until the end. And this state has a mandatory recount if the percent of margin of difference between the two candidates is less than one quarter of one percent. And right now it is less than one quarter of one percent. Get ready for a recount.
And they tell us, we've talked to the secretary of state here, they tell us that that recount could take until the end of the month.
HEMMER: Wow.
OK, Jonathan.
KARL: So stay tuned.
HEMMER: Indeed, we will.
Thank you, pal.
Jonathan Karl in South Dakota.
The turning point for the Republican Party came very early this morning. You heard Kelly Wallace talk about a 1:30 a.m. conference call with Ari Fleischer at the White House. It was about 2:00 in the morning, roughly six hours ago, when the decision was made in Missouri. Republican challenger Jim Talent narrowly knocking off the Democrat, Jean Carnahan, giving the Republicans control of the Senate. Right now at 51 in that chamber of commerce and Carol -- chamber of Congress. It's been a long night.
Carol Lin right now live in St. Louis -- Carol, good morning.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Bill.
Yes, it appears that President Bush's coattails extended all the way to Republican Jim Talent here in the State of Missouri. President Bush campaigning just 24 hours before, the fourth time he came to this state. Nobody knew what a difference it might make. Even Jim Talent said no, people aren't going to vote because I support President Bush, people are going to vote for me based on my record.
Last night, right up until the bitter end, about 1:00 a.m. local time, 2:00 a.m. Eastern time, all of a sudden we saw a tearful crowd of Jean Carnahan's campaign staff and friends and family members come into the Missouri Democratic headquarters. We suddenly expected to hear from the candidate. And she came out and made a very brave concession speech.
We were surprised because the margin there was 30,000 votes. She was under Jim Talent just by 30,000 votes with some key Democratic precincts still to be reporting in from the City of St. Louis.
But apparently her campaign was crunching the numbers and they said by all appearances, the numbers still weren't going to add up, even with the provisional ballots coming in later on.
In the meantime, Jim Talent clearly ran a very, a clean, classic Republican campaign. He talked about national security issues. He emphasized his support for President Bush at a critical time for this nation. And, Bill, what was really interesting in this race is that Jim Talent and the Republican Party went very heavily for the African- American vote and the women's vote, campaigning very heavily in some very typical Democratic districts as well as conservative Democrats and clearly the Republican rural vote came out for him. And Jim Talent pulled it out in the end.
HEMMER: Carol, thanks.
Carol Lin again in St. Louis.
As you mentioned, Carol, it was Missouri that put the Republicans over the top. As it stands right now, a majority for the Republicans in the Senate, Paula, 51. It could go higher pending the results of South Dakota. And, of course, as Bob Franken was mentioning, we are waiting now to see Walter Mondale's decision in minute. We'll watch it all.
Back to you now at the CNN headquarters.
ZAHN: Thanks, Bill.
Appreciate it.
HEMMER: Sure.
ZAHN: Overnight, as we have been saying, America's political landscape has undergone a dramatic change.
Here with me now to discuss the history evening, Jeff Greenfield and Tucker Carlson.
Good morning to both of you.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.
CARLSON: Hi.
ZAHN: Last time I guess I left you was about midnight.
GREENFIELD: I guess you got an hour's sleep. So we're going to start with you to punish you.
Let's talk about last night's victories in the context of the Democrats waking up this morning who thought they could consider a run for the presidency.
GREENFIELD: Yes, I mean I think it's, I think, first of all, there's always the danger of over statement and over hype. It was an important thing that happened last night. It was a victory for the Republicans. The president emerges with enhanced political stature, right? But so think about it as one of the list of wannabes who wants to be president and looks out at this landscape and is thinking OK, now what?
You know, it's not as though you can't win. You go back to the March of 1991 when George Bush the first was at 91 percent and, you know, it was hopeless, no way a Democrat could win. But I think the lesson that they might have learned was if you run a campaign strictly tactically, that is, if you don't have anything coherent and forceful to say, then you might as well not run.
And I think what happened this time was that the Democrats felt that they were boxed in by 9/11, by a potential war with Iraq and by the fact that they didn't have a Democratic message on the economy. I mean most of these Democratic senators in the red states voted for the Bush tax cut.
So if you look -- so, I know this sounds radical, but before you hire the pollster and the media consultant, maybe you want to think about what it is you intend to do with the power if you get to be president and then figure out all right, where is this president weak? Because I think this president does have weaknesses despite what happened yesterday.
ZAHN: Well, you were sitting right here when Senator Tom Daschle told me it wasn't the fact that the Democrats didn't have an economic plan, it was the fact that it didn't get covered.
GREENFIELD: Yes. It was the...
ZAHN: Which, of course, Trent Lott later said was not the case.
CARLSON: Actually, blaming the press is not the last refuge, it's the first refuge. This is the Spiro Agnew defense. No, I mean that's ludicrous. Jeff is absolutely right. I mean the essence of this is the tax cut, whether, do you want to repeal it, do you want to make it permanent? And Democrats couldn't decide because a lot of them, of course, supported the tax cut. They were never going to have a coherent message on that.
I think they could have gotten traction on Iraq if Democrats as a group decided to take a principled stand against it, not some go off into some ludicrous irrelevant idea about, you know, the United Nations, but a principled...
ZAHN: But you know the reality of that, though, was that that would have alienated centrists. And the a lot of analysts are suggesting that's the sole reason why the Democrats weren't more forceful on that issue.
CARLSON: Well, I mean I think it would have alienated centrists if the Democrats had said look, you know, we need the permission of Belgium to go forward or American power is never legitimate, etc., you know, making it that kind of classic liberal case against the war. However, there is a case that's reasonable, almost conservative, and I think would make sense to a lot of people sort of sitting on the fence not knowing what to think about Iraq, and that is look, the war on terror is more important, first things first, Saddam can be contained, you know, he's more Brezhnev than Mohamed Atta. You know, he's not a lunatic. He's rational. We can contain him.
That's as reasonable case and Democrats could have taken that to the public and gotten somewhere with it. And not just in Minnesota, where Ralston (ph) did it. I think nationally it might have helped.
GREENFIELD: I'm suggesting, I think, a somewhat broader problem for the Democrats and a somewhat broader opportunity, which is you, if you're going to run a campaign for president, polling and tactically, maybe you can even win it. But I think you ultimately wind up defeating yourself. Look, when Ronald Reagan ran for president, people knew what he intended to do. And had the moment not fit him, had there not been hostages in Iran and a sense of weakness in America and terrible inflation, he would have lost.
When Bill Clinton took on George Bush the first in 1992, this Arkansas governor with a checkered personal problem, basically what he said is look, I've got a notion about how we can handle this economy. And enough people signed on for it that he got to be president and it worked well enough that he got reelected and Democrats gained seats in '98 when the guy was in the middle of a sex scandal.
So what I'm suggesting is a somewhat broader problem. If these guys aren't prepared to take risks politically, if they're not prepared to state a position and argue it, even if their consultants say you're going to alienate left-handed dentists in Missouri with this, you'd better watch it, then there's really no point. I mean there's not only not any point to running, what are you doing this for?
I mean let me quote somebody who's very rarely quoted anymore, Dwight Eisenhower, who once said that a political party without principles is nothing more than a conspiracy to seize power. And what I think has happened is the Democratic Party, and Clinton bears some credit or responsibility for this, in moving to the center abandoned a lot of its economic core, which had flourished from the days of Franklin Roosevelt through John Kennedy and Harry Truman. And it seems to me that part of the problem is when you've got a Democratic Party that raises its money from the same sources as the Republicans, when their national chairman made $15 million selling Global Crossing stock when he got an initial public offering, it's hard to paint yourself as a party of populism. It just doesn't fit.
The Republicans know who they are. They are the party of campaign. And there's nothing wrong with that. I mean that's what they've always been. They are the party of business.
ZAHN: Is that how you would define your party, Tucker?
CARLSON: Well, I'm not certain about that. But I absolutely agree with Jeff, when both parties become the party of big business -- and this really was the change that Clinton made. He made it OK to be a greedy Democrat. That's actually true. I mean if you think about, you know, throughout the 1990s, you know, "Fortune" magazine putting these heroic CEOs on the cover every week, this is the kind of thing that used to drive liberals completely bananas. Wellstone was always upset about it, and good for him. But nobody else said a word, because these were the icons of the Clinton era.
It really helped in the short-term, Bill Clinton. I think it gutted the Republican Party -- I mean, rather, the Democratic Party in the end. It took its conscience, its soul, and that's why I predict, as I did at the very beginning, Hillary Clinton will become the leader of the party by the end of this year.
ZAHN: Does he have you rolling your eyes?
GREENFIELD: I just don't do predictions. I learned 30 years ago when I predicted John Lindsey would be president to keep my mouth shut. When anybody says what do you think is going to happen, I have a three word answer -- I don't know.
ZAHN: I don't know.
GREENFIELD: It's saved me many problems and I'm sticking to it.
CARLSON: Really? Well, I'm just wading right in. It's early enough. I just, no sense in restraint.
ZAHN: We won't hold it against you.
Thank you much, gentlemen.
GREENFIELD: And who's going to remember?
ZAHN: Exactly.
CARLSON: Right.
(BREAK FOR WEATHER REPORT)
ZAHN: Bill?
HEMMER: Paula, still to come here on AMERICAN MORNING, the president's brother adds a page to the history books here in Florida. A lot of help from his older brother last night. We'll talk about Jeb's victory here plus election updates and analysis.
Jeffrey Toobin watched things roll in in Broward County last night. We'll talk about that and a recount in South Dakota, the possibility there in a moment on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: All right, welcome back to Miami, Florida. It is the day after election 2002 and yesterday we were talking about this very important issue on the legal side. The Justice Department sent out about 400 observers to monitor polling stations throughout the country. They joined armies of lawyers from both parties, some estimating well over 10,000, also watching for irregularities.
So were there any to talk about?
Keeping a very close eye on that here in Florida, our legal analyst, Jeffrey Toobin, who was in Broward County last evening for a long day.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: A long day.
HEMMER: And a long night.
I want to get to Broward in a second here. But we're hearing right now there could be a recount here in South Dakota. Your point is that just because there's a recount, doesn't necessarily change the ultimate outcome and we saw that firsthand in Tallahassee.
TOOBIN: We did. I mean we know all too well about recounts now. And the bottom line, it's always important to remember, is that the person who is ahead on election night or at, when the votes are stopped counting for the first time, usually the next morning, almost invariably wins the election. When the margin is a couple hundred votes, as it appears to be in South Dakota...
HEMMER: There are the numbers from South Dakota now.
TOOBIN: ... South Dakota, you're talking about 800 votes there, that's a significant number to make up in a state where you've only got, you know, less than 350,000 votes cast. So unless, as some people suggest, some Indian reservation votes come in that put Johnson ahead with the first total, he's in big trouble on a recount.
HEMMER: Let's come back to Florida, Broward County. It appeared yesterday, there was a lot of anticipation that Florida could screw it up again, to be quite frank with you.
TOOBIN: It sure was. Sure.
HEMMER: And it did not happen.
TOOBIN: It really...
HEMMER: What was your sense from election workers? Was it relief? Was it exasperating that hey, we did it finally, it's over and the monkey's off our back?
TOOBIN: You know, I think they felt like they finally go it right. You know, they went to an almost entirely, an entirely new system. You know, they went from the dreaded punch cards and the world of chads to -- they sort of skipped a whole generation of voting technology and went to these ATM style machines, a huge, huge change. In September in the primary, you know, they just didn't know how to work them and they didn't have enough people. They threw an army of people, especially in Broward County last night, and it really went very smoothly. There were no problems.
And one big factor was it wasn't a close election. So a glitch here and there didn't matter at all because this was a blowout and so any small problem wouldn't have made any difference.
HEMMER: And it appears, though, if you look at Broward County, as we're trying to figure out what happened last night, what the Democrats did wrong, what the Republicans did right, Broward County, south Florida, heavily Democratic, the turnout was exceedingly low there. They expected about 60 percent to turn out.
TOOBIN: Four years ago, well, 60 percent is sort of presidential turnout. Fifty percent is what you get in a governor's race.
HEMMER: Midterm.
TOOBIN: That's what it was four years ago. The turnout was barely 40 percent last night in Broward.
HEMMER: Wow.
TOOBIN: And I think, you know, one key reason why McBride lost is the base of the Democratic Party was not motivated to go to the polls.
HEMMER: Lack of inspiration.
TOOBIN: Absolutely.
HEMMER: Let's talk about what we talked about yesterday. We had been -- well, now we know why we're not in the prediction game.
TOOBIN: You bet.
HEMMER: Because what we project does not necessarily come true. There were thousands of political attorneys on both sides fanning out across the country trying to figure out if, indeed, there are irregularities. At this point it doesn't seem to have come true right now.
TOOBIN: It really didn't. And the main reason you didn't have, you know, an army of litigation coming out of this, a lot of litigation, was because there weren't a lot of close races, I mean when you talk about recount level type close races. Sure, you know, there were a lot of 51-48, 50, you know, three or four point races. Lawyers can't do anything about that sort of margin.
HEMMER: It's not close enough.
TOOBIN: That's not, it's not close enough. So you had one issue in Arkansas where you had late. You had voting late in Pulaski County (ph), which is Little Rock, somewhat of a controversy. But other than that, there was really nothing to speak of.
HEMMER: And so we wait for 2004, do we not?
TOOBIN: That's true. Trouble ahead, perhaps. Who knows?
HEMMER: Maybe.
Thank you, Jeff. Great to be with you here.
TOOBIN: All righty, Bill.
HEMMER: Let's get back to Paula now.
ZAHN: Thanks, gentlemen.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired November 6, 2002 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANNOUNCER: This is a special edition of AMERICAN MORNING for Wednesday, November 6,2002.
From CNN Center in Atlanta, here's Paula Zahn.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Welcome from Atlanta. Glad to have you with us for this special edition of AMERICAN MORNING.
The Republican Party is taking control, control of the Senate, control of the House and control of key statehouses, as well. The 2002 election is a big victory for President Bush, who campaigned very hard for Republicans across the country, 17 stops in some five days. We're going to get you caught up on all the results and talk about why the Republicans won so big and what it means for all of us.
Bill Hemmer happens to be reporting from Miami, where he has been for the last 24 hours or so, where the president's brother survived a very strong Democratic challenge.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Yes.
ZAHN: In the end, though, it was a bit of a blow out, wasn't it, Bill?
HEMMER: Yes, 13 points, Paula, with about 99 percent reported. The most generous projections had put George Bush at eight points. Most had him in right about six. But really an absolute blowout when you add it up.
The other big story out of Florida, Paula, is that the Sunshine State got it right. Two years later and $32 million in election reform, no major snafus to report from yesterday. And across the state, Floridians quite glad and quite relieved about that news.
More in a moment here from south Florida.
ZAHN: Thanks, Bill.
Look forward to it.
Jack Cafferty has the day off. Here with me at election headquarters is Tucker Carlson.
Are you going to gloat, even though the Republican Party, I guess, sent out a memo to Senate and House leaders not to gloat?
TUCKER CARLSON, "CROSSFIRE" CO-HOST: Well, you know, Senator Trent Lott just said a moment ago to you, there's no time for gloating, to which I say there is always time for gloating. Gloating is the best part. And since I work on "Crossfire" I gloat for a living. So I can't wait.
Yes, I think there are two interesting things to look for. One, as somebody said this morning, a Democrat, this is a sea change for Democrats. It's time to rethink what the party stands for, who leads it, and that will happen.
And, two, this is a mandate for the president. What's he going to do with it? I think he's going to use it to prosecute a war. I think it's dropped from the headlines in the past two weeks. I think there will be a war in Iraq and I think the president's popularity is going to be key to his ability to explain it to the American public.
ZAHN: I want to throw out a quick question to you that John Zogby, a pollster, polled the other night. He was saying that Karl Rove's strategy was masterful and he sort of suggests it was the wag the dog theory. By calling attention to the debate on Iraq, the attention on the economy diminished.
CARLSON: Only...
ZAHN: Any truth to that?
CARLSON: The old conspiracy, the wag the dog, that, you know, Colin Powell, I guess, is in on this conspiracy. I don't know, Bill Schneider was just saying at a commercial break, and it sounded right to me, that the economy is still the chief concern of most people and was up to and through this midterm election. The problem is, for the Democrats, is simply the public didn't blame the White House for economic woes, but people are still worried about the economy above all.
So the idea that people somehow forgot that their 401Ks were in trouble, not true.
ZAHN: Will you hang around with us this morning?
CARLSON: Yes, ma'am, I'll be here.
ZAHN: Please stand by.
Thanks, Tucker. Glad to have you with us.
It is a surprisingly strong showing for the Republican Party as it takes back the Senate and holds the House. The Minnesota Senate race wasn't called until about two hours ago. Republican Norm Coleman was declared the winner against former Vice President Walter Mondale, who was called in after the death of Senator Paul Wellstone.
The president's hard work paid off in the House of Representatives, too. Republicans not only retained control of the House, but picked up several seats, as well. Of course, the president's coattails helped his brother out, too. Jeb Bush keeping control of the Florida statehouse. And one of last night's big surprises, Georgia, where Republicans unseated a Democratic senator and the governor there.
Let's quickly go back to Bill in Miami for the latest on the Minnesota race -- Bill.
HEMMER: Paula, a lot of attention given to St. Paul, especially with the tragic and untimely death of Senator Paul Wellstone. Walter Mondale stepping in, age 74,a lot of critics on that front, but a lot of other people saying Mondale's experience will help carry the day for the Democrats. It does not appear to be the case at all.
Bob Franken tracking that from Minnesota this morning. Any reaction thus far, Bob, from the Mondale camp?
BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we're going to probably get it in the next couple of hours. In the next couple of hours, which is ten o'clock Eastern, nine o'clock here, there's going to be a news conference here at Mondale headquarters. But the people who are on the staff say they don't know yet whether it's going to be the candidate himself or whether it's going to be some operative. They don't know yet whether they will be ready to concede which, of course, would be that the role that Walter Mondale would play if he came here. They aren't ready to say yet that they accept the projections from news organizations like CNN that Norm Coleman has won the race.
However, it should be pointed out that there were some analysts last night already saying that even with the long delays and the closeness of this election, the trend seemed to be going to Coleman. The inching away by Coleman in the morning results suggested to the analysts that, in fact, it was time to make the projection.
The Mondale people yet have not had their meeting to decide whether this will be the time that the candidate comes out and concedes. And, of course, this was an election that had a massive, massive turnout. It was an energized campaign. On the one hand, the Democrats energized by the death of Paul Wellstone and the emergence in the race of that political icon to their party, Walter Mondale. And on the other side, the Republicans energized by both visits from President Bush, his wife and the vice president in the last weekend of the campaign, as well as an uproar among Republicans about a memorial service to Wellstone that they felt turned into a political rally.
And that seems to have really gotten them out in numbers, huge numbers, enough, it appears, to make Norm Coleman the person who's going to Washington as the next United States senator from Minnesota -- Bill.
HEMMER: Yes, let's move further West, Bob -- thanks to you, Bob Franken in Minnesota -- to South Dakota now and Jonathan Karl, who's watching another very close Senate race there, picking up this morning for us.
Jonathan, good morning to you.
JONATHAN KARL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Bill, they don't do hanging chads here in South Dakota, but they're about to do a recount. We now have 748 votes separating the Republican, who is in the lead, John Thune, and the Democrat, Tim Johnson, who is trailing. But here's what's interesting. We have five of the state's 844 precincts that have not yet reported. Four of those precincts that haven't reported on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservations and Native Americans have been voting big time for the Democrat. That could switch this around.
There's about 1,500 votes left to count on that Pine Ridge Indian Reservation. So this thing could be a real nail biter right until the end. And this state has a mandatory recount if the percent of margin of difference between the two candidates is less than one quarter of one percent. And right now it is less than one quarter of one percent. Get ready for a recount.
And they tell us, we've talked to the secretary of state here, they tell us that that recount could take until the end of the month.
HEMMER: Wow.
OK, Jonathan.
KARL: So stay tuned.
HEMMER: Indeed, we will.
Thank you, pal.
Jonathan Karl in South Dakota.
The turning point for the Republican Party came very early this morning. You heard Kelly Wallace talk about a 1:30 a.m. conference call with Ari Fleischer at the White House. It was about 2:00 in the morning, roughly six hours ago, when the decision was made in Missouri. Republican challenger Jim Talent narrowly knocking off the Democrat, Jean Carnahan, giving the Republicans control of the Senate. Right now at 51 in that chamber of commerce and Carol -- chamber of Congress. It's been a long night.
Carol Lin right now live in St. Louis -- Carol, good morning.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Bill.
Yes, it appears that President Bush's coattails extended all the way to Republican Jim Talent here in the State of Missouri. President Bush campaigning just 24 hours before, the fourth time he came to this state. Nobody knew what a difference it might make. Even Jim Talent said no, people aren't going to vote because I support President Bush, people are going to vote for me based on my record.
Last night, right up until the bitter end, about 1:00 a.m. local time, 2:00 a.m. Eastern time, all of a sudden we saw a tearful crowd of Jean Carnahan's campaign staff and friends and family members come into the Missouri Democratic headquarters. We suddenly expected to hear from the candidate. And she came out and made a very brave concession speech.
We were surprised because the margin there was 30,000 votes. She was under Jim Talent just by 30,000 votes with some key Democratic precincts still to be reporting in from the City of St. Louis.
But apparently her campaign was crunching the numbers and they said by all appearances, the numbers still weren't going to add up, even with the provisional ballots coming in later on.
In the meantime, Jim Talent clearly ran a very, a clean, classic Republican campaign. He talked about national security issues. He emphasized his support for President Bush at a critical time for this nation. And, Bill, what was really interesting in this race is that Jim Talent and the Republican Party went very heavily for the African- American vote and the women's vote, campaigning very heavily in some very typical Democratic districts as well as conservative Democrats and clearly the Republican rural vote came out for him. And Jim Talent pulled it out in the end.
HEMMER: Carol, thanks.
Carol Lin again in St. Louis.
As you mentioned, Carol, it was Missouri that put the Republicans over the top. As it stands right now, a majority for the Republicans in the Senate, Paula, 51. It could go higher pending the results of South Dakota. And, of course, as Bob Franken was mentioning, we are waiting now to see Walter Mondale's decision in minute. We'll watch it all.
Back to you now at the CNN headquarters.
ZAHN: Thanks, Bill.
Appreciate it.
HEMMER: Sure.
ZAHN: Overnight, as we have been saying, America's political landscape has undergone a dramatic change.
Here with me now to discuss the history evening, Jeff Greenfield and Tucker Carlson.
Good morning to both of you.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.
CARLSON: Hi.
ZAHN: Last time I guess I left you was about midnight.
GREENFIELD: I guess you got an hour's sleep. So we're going to start with you to punish you.
Let's talk about last night's victories in the context of the Democrats waking up this morning who thought they could consider a run for the presidency.
GREENFIELD: Yes, I mean I think it's, I think, first of all, there's always the danger of over statement and over hype. It was an important thing that happened last night. It was a victory for the Republicans. The president emerges with enhanced political stature, right? But so think about it as one of the list of wannabes who wants to be president and looks out at this landscape and is thinking OK, now what?
You know, it's not as though you can't win. You go back to the March of 1991 when George Bush the first was at 91 percent and, you know, it was hopeless, no way a Democrat could win. But I think the lesson that they might have learned was if you run a campaign strictly tactically, that is, if you don't have anything coherent and forceful to say, then you might as well not run.
And I think what happened this time was that the Democrats felt that they were boxed in by 9/11, by a potential war with Iraq and by the fact that they didn't have a Democratic message on the economy. I mean most of these Democratic senators in the red states voted for the Bush tax cut.
So if you look -- so, I know this sounds radical, but before you hire the pollster and the media consultant, maybe you want to think about what it is you intend to do with the power if you get to be president and then figure out all right, where is this president weak? Because I think this president does have weaknesses despite what happened yesterday.
ZAHN: Well, you were sitting right here when Senator Tom Daschle told me it wasn't the fact that the Democrats didn't have an economic plan, it was the fact that it didn't get covered.
GREENFIELD: Yes. It was the...
ZAHN: Which, of course, Trent Lott later said was not the case.
CARLSON: Actually, blaming the press is not the last refuge, it's the first refuge. This is the Spiro Agnew defense. No, I mean that's ludicrous. Jeff is absolutely right. I mean the essence of this is the tax cut, whether, do you want to repeal it, do you want to make it permanent? And Democrats couldn't decide because a lot of them, of course, supported the tax cut. They were never going to have a coherent message on that.
I think they could have gotten traction on Iraq if Democrats as a group decided to take a principled stand against it, not some go off into some ludicrous irrelevant idea about, you know, the United Nations, but a principled...
ZAHN: But you know the reality of that, though, was that that would have alienated centrists. And the a lot of analysts are suggesting that's the sole reason why the Democrats weren't more forceful on that issue.
CARLSON: Well, I mean I think it would have alienated centrists if the Democrats had said look, you know, we need the permission of Belgium to go forward or American power is never legitimate, etc., you know, making it that kind of classic liberal case against the war. However, there is a case that's reasonable, almost conservative, and I think would make sense to a lot of people sort of sitting on the fence not knowing what to think about Iraq, and that is look, the war on terror is more important, first things first, Saddam can be contained, you know, he's more Brezhnev than Mohamed Atta. You know, he's not a lunatic. He's rational. We can contain him.
That's as reasonable case and Democrats could have taken that to the public and gotten somewhere with it. And not just in Minnesota, where Ralston (ph) did it. I think nationally it might have helped.
GREENFIELD: I'm suggesting, I think, a somewhat broader problem for the Democrats and a somewhat broader opportunity, which is you, if you're going to run a campaign for president, polling and tactically, maybe you can even win it. But I think you ultimately wind up defeating yourself. Look, when Ronald Reagan ran for president, people knew what he intended to do. And had the moment not fit him, had there not been hostages in Iran and a sense of weakness in America and terrible inflation, he would have lost.
When Bill Clinton took on George Bush the first in 1992, this Arkansas governor with a checkered personal problem, basically what he said is look, I've got a notion about how we can handle this economy. And enough people signed on for it that he got to be president and it worked well enough that he got reelected and Democrats gained seats in '98 when the guy was in the middle of a sex scandal.
So what I'm suggesting is a somewhat broader problem. If these guys aren't prepared to take risks politically, if they're not prepared to state a position and argue it, even if their consultants say you're going to alienate left-handed dentists in Missouri with this, you'd better watch it, then there's really no point. I mean there's not only not any point to running, what are you doing this for?
I mean let me quote somebody who's very rarely quoted anymore, Dwight Eisenhower, who once said that a political party without principles is nothing more than a conspiracy to seize power. And what I think has happened is the Democratic Party, and Clinton bears some credit or responsibility for this, in moving to the center abandoned a lot of its economic core, which had flourished from the days of Franklin Roosevelt through John Kennedy and Harry Truman. And it seems to me that part of the problem is when you've got a Democratic Party that raises its money from the same sources as the Republicans, when their national chairman made $15 million selling Global Crossing stock when he got an initial public offering, it's hard to paint yourself as a party of populism. It just doesn't fit.
The Republicans know who they are. They are the party of campaign. And there's nothing wrong with that. I mean that's what they've always been. They are the party of business.
ZAHN: Is that how you would define your party, Tucker?
CARLSON: Well, I'm not certain about that. But I absolutely agree with Jeff, when both parties become the party of big business -- and this really was the change that Clinton made. He made it OK to be a greedy Democrat. That's actually true. I mean if you think about, you know, throughout the 1990s, you know, "Fortune" magazine putting these heroic CEOs on the cover every week, this is the kind of thing that used to drive liberals completely bananas. Wellstone was always upset about it, and good for him. But nobody else said a word, because these were the icons of the Clinton era.
It really helped in the short-term, Bill Clinton. I think it gutted the Republican Party -- I mean, rather, the Democratic Party in the end. It took its conscience, its soul, and that's why I predict, as I did at the very beginning, Hillary Clinton will become the leader of the party by the end of this year.
ZAHN: Does he have you rolling your eyes?
GREENFIELD: I just don't do predictions. I learned 30 years ago when I predicted John Lindsey would be president to keep my mouth shut. When anybody says what do you think is going to happen, I have a three word answer -- I don't know.
ZAHN: I don't know.
GREENFIELD: It's saved me many problems and I'm sticking to it.
CARLSON: Really? Well, I'm just wading right in. It's early enough. I just, no sense in restraint.
ZAHN: We won't hold it against you.
Thank you much, gentlemen.
GREENFIELD: And who's going to remember?
ZAHN: Exactly.
CARLSON: Right.
(BREAK FOR WEATHER REPORT)
ZAHN: Bill?
HEMMER: Paula, still to come here on AMERICAN MORNING, the president's brother adds a page to the history books here in Florida. A lot of help from his older brother last night. We'll talk about Jeb's victory here plus election updates and analysis.
Jeffrey Toobin watched things roll in in Broward County last night. We'll talk about that and a recount in South Dakota, the possibility there in a moment on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: All right, welcome back to Miami, Florida. It is the day after election 2002 and yesterday we were talking about this very important issue on the legal side. The Justice Department sent out about 400 observers to monitor polling stations throughout the country. They joined armies of lawyers from both parties, some estimating well over 10,000, also watching for irregularities.
So were there any to talk about?
Keeping a very close eye on that here in Florida, our legal analyst, Jeffrey Toobin, who was in Broward County last evening for a long day.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: A long day.
HEMMER: And a long night.
I want to get to Broward in a second here. But we're hearing right now there could be a recount here in South Dakota. Your point is that just because there's a recount, doesn't necessarily change the ultimate outcome and we saw that firsthand in Tallahassee.
TOOBIN: We did. I mean we know all too well about recounts now. And the bottom line, it's always important to remember, is that the person who is ahead on election night or at, when the votes are stopped counting for the first time, usually the next morning, almost invariably wins the election. When the margin is a couple hundred votes, as it appears to be in South Dakota...
HEMMER: There are the numbers from South Dakota now.
TOOBIN: ... South Dakota, you're talking about 800 votes there, that's a significant number to make up in a state where you've only got, you know, less than 350,000 votes cast. So unless, as some people suggest, some Indian reservation votes come in that put Johnson ahead with the first total, he's in big trouble on a recount.
HEMMER: Let's come back to Florida, Broward County. It appeared yesterday, there was a lot of anticipation that Florida could screw it up again, to be quite frank with you.
TOOBIN: It sure was. Sure.
HEMMER: And it did not happen.
TOOBIN: It really...
HEMMER: What was your sense from election workers? Was it relief? Was it exasperating that hey, we did it finally, it's over and the monkey's off our back?
TOOBIN: You know, I think they felt like they finally go it right. You know, they went to an almost entirely, an entirely new system. You know, they went from the dreaded punch cards and the world of chads to -- they sort of skipped a whole generation of voting technology and went to these ATM style machines, a huge, huge change. In September in the primary, you know, they just didn't know how to work them and they didn't have enough people. They threw an army of people, especially in Broward County last night, and it really went very smoothly. There were no problems.
And one big factor was it wasn't a close election. So a glitch here and there didn't matter at all because this was a blowout and so any small problem wouldn't have made any difference.
HEMMER: And it appears, though, if you look at Broward County, as we're trying to figure out what happened last night, what the Democrats did wrong, what the Republicans did right, Broward County, south Florida, heavily Democratic, the turnout was exceedingly low there. They expected about 60 percent to turn out.
TOOBIN: Four years ago, well, 60 percent is sort of presidential turnout. Fifty percent is what you get in a governor's race.
HEMMER: Midterm.
TOOBIN: That's what it was four years ago. The turnout was barely 40 percent last night in Broward.
HEMMER: Wow.
TOOBIN: And I think, you know, one key reason why McBride lost is the base of the Democratic Party was not motivated to go to the polls.
HEMMER: Lack of inspiration.
TOOBIN: Absolutely.
HEMMER: Let's talk about what we talked about yesterday. We had been -- well, now we know why we're not in the prediction game.
TOOBIN: You bet.
HEMMER: Because what we project does not necessarily come true. There were thousands of political attorneys on both sides fanning out across the country trying to figure out if, indeed, there are irregularities. At this point it doesn't seem to have come true right now.
TOOBIN: It really didn't. And the main reason you didn't have, you know, an army of litigation coming out of this, a lot of litigation, was because there weren't a lot of close races, I mean when you talk about recount level type close races. Sure, you know, there were a lot of 51-48, 50, you know, three or four point races. Lawyers can't do anything about that sort of margin.
HEMMER: It's not close enough.
TOOBIN: That's not, it's not close enough. So you had one issue in Arkansas where you had late. You had voting late in Pulaski County (ph), which is Little Rock, somewhat of a controversy. But other than that, there was really nothing to speak of.
HEMMER: And so we wait for 2004, do we not?
TOOBIN: That's true. Trouble ahead, perhaps. Who knows?
HEMMER: Maybe.
Thank you, Jeff. Great to be with you here.
TOOBIN: All righty, Bill.
HEMMER: Let's get back to Paula now.
ZAHN: Thanks, gentlemen.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
