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CNN Live At Daybreak
Interview With Richard Holbrooke
Aired November 07, 2002 - 07:05 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: The U.S. is making a new diplomatic push at the United Nations for its revised plan to disarm Iraq. Eight weeks of lobbying by the Bush administration went into this resolution. So, will holdouts, like France and Russia, finally sign off on it?
Joining me now is the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Richard Holbrooke.
Welcome back.
RICHARD HOLBROOKE, FMR. U.S. AMB. TO U.N.: Thanks, Paula.
ZAHN: So, "The Wall Street Journal" is reporting this morning that U.S. officials say France has agreed to this draft. Do you think Russia ultimately, and China, will go with it as well?
HOLBROOKE: Well, this resolution, after eight weeks of negotiation and a lot of changes, will pass within the next few days, perhaps as early as tomorrow, surely by the end of the weekend.
ZAHN: Help everybody else out there understand what this draft does and does not do.
HOLBROOKE: Well, armed with a congressional resolution of support last month, and a new Security Council resolution which will be passed in the next few days, President Bush now has everything in place to proceed down one of two tracks. And ironically, the next set of moves are not in Washington or New York; they're really in Baghdad.
The resolution says, and I quote, that they're going to provide Iraq with "one final opportunity to comply with all of the existing resolutions" -- that is disarm. And if they don't, they will take further action.
Now, they don't specify exactly what the action is. The French and the Russians, pushed the U.S., backed away from saying that it would trigger an automatic war. But everybody understands that that's what the U.S. means.
ZAHN: Do you personally have faith, once inspectors get in there, they're going to have unfettered access to the sites they want to see?
HOLBROOKE: Nobody has faith that Saddam Hussein, who has violated resolutions for over a decade, will comply with these. But the public should understand what we've got here. If he doesn't -- if Saddam doesn't comply, if he continues his long track record, then there will be a war.
ZAHN: Now, because this draft doesn't make it clear exactly what happens after that inspection process, what would happen? There's another...
HOLBROOKE: Oh, the draft...
ZAHN: ... debate at the Security Council then?
HOLBROOKE: There was an arcane and obscure argument between Washington, Paris and Moscow over whether or not a second resolution is necessary. But in point of fact, what the United States agreed to is to have another meeting, but not to wait for another resolution.
So, if Iraq thinks that they can jerk the world around, not comply, not give Hans Blix and his inspectors full access, if he thinks he can stall and not face war, he's probably going to learn a very sorry lesson.
ZAHN: How long can he stall?
HOLBROOKE: Well...
ZAHN: It is reported this morning Hans Blix is going to go in 10 days after this draft is officially approved, and it remains to be seen how long the inspection process would go on.
HOLBROOKE: Well, I think he will have people in there. Let's say he'll have people in by the third week in November. Then, Iraq has 30 days to give the world, according to this draft -- they may change the number "30" -- but he has 30 days to give the United Nations a complete list of everything he's doing. And then, the U.N. will inspect.
So, there are several trigger points. If Saddam doesn't let the people in, there will be a war very quickly. If Saddam lets the people in but doesn't give a good list, or no list at all, there could be war by the end of this year. If he gives a list, and they start inspecting and they're obstructed, it could start later.
But every stage of the process, Saddam now has to comply, or he will face immediate and severe consequences. And I stress that while the French and the Russians have got the U.S. committed to come back to the U.N. to talk about this, the U.S. is not committed to seek another resolution.
My own guess: That they won't seek another resolution. But they might. This is a diplomatic technicality. The real issue is that the U.S. will get the Security Council's support, and backed with the congressional support of last month, the path is clear for Saddam either to disarm or face a military consequence, which will surely be his defeat.
ZAHN: If the world community has so little faith, because you've seen these resolutions violated so many times in the past, are you saying this morning you think that war is all but inevitable... HOLBROOKE: No.
ZAHN: ... and it's a question of when?
HOLBROOKE: The war is likely, because I don't think it's very likely that Saddam will comply fully. President Bush can make the decision as to whether he'll accept 90 percent compliance or 80 percent, or whether he's going to demand 100 percent. That's for Washington to decide. I think war is more likely than not, but it's not absolutely certain.
ZAHN: And are you satisfied with this whole U.N. track so far?
HOLBROOKE: Yes, I've long advocated, including discussions you and I had on this program, that the road to Baghdad led through the U.N. Security Council. I think if the United States had not followed the course that was laid out on September 12 by President Bush at the U.N., we would be isolated internationally now. Instead, we're going to pick up a substantial majority of the U.N., including support from France and I suspect Russia.
ZAHN: Richard Holbrooke, always good to see you -- former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Thanks for dropping by.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired November 7, 2002 - 07:05 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: The U.S. is making a new diplomatic push at the United Nations for its revised plan to disarm Iraq. Eight weeks of lobbying by the Bush administration went into this resolution. So, will holdouts, like France and Russia, finally sign off on it?
Joining me now is the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Richard Holbrooke.
Welcome back.
RICHARD HOLBROOKE, FMR. U.S. AMB. TO U.N.: Thanks, Paula.
ZAHN: So, "The Wall Street Journal" is reporting this morning that U.S. officials say France has agreed to this draft. Do you think Russia ultimately, and China, will go with it as well?
HOLBROOKE: Well, this resolution, after eight weeks of negotiation and a lot of changes, will pass within the next few days, perhaps as early as tomorrow, surely by the end of the weekend.
ZAHN: Help everybody else out there understand what this draft does and does not do.
HOLBROOKE: Well, armed with a congressional resolution of support last month, and a new Security Council resolution which will be passed in the next few days, President Bush now has everything in place to proceed down one of two tracks. And ironically, the next set of moves are not in Washington or New York; they're really in Baghdad.
The resolution says, and I quote, that they're going to provide Iraq with "one final opportunity to comply with all of the existing resolutions" -- that is disarm. And if they don't, they will take further action.
Now, they don't specify exactly what the action is. The French and the Russians, pushed the U.S., backed away from saying that it would trigger an automatic war. But everybody understands that that's what the U.S. means.
ZAHN: Do you personally have faith, once inspectors get in there, they're going to have unfettered access to the sites they want to see?
HOLBROOKE: Nobody has faith that Saddam Hussein, who has violated resolutions for over a decade, will comply with these. But the public should understand what we've got here. If he doesn't -- if Saddam doesn't comply, if he continues his long track record, then there will be a war.
ZAHN: Now, because this draft doesn't make it clear exactly what happens after that inspection process, what would happen? There's another...
HOLBROOKE: Oh, the draft...
ZAHN: ... debate at the Security Council then?
HOLBROOKE: There was an arcane and obscure argument between Washington, Paris and Moscow over whether or not a second resolution is necessary. But in point of fact, what the United States agreed to is to have another meeting, but not to wait for another resolution.
So, if Iraq thinks that they can jerk the world around, not comply, not give Hans Blix and his inspectors full access, if he thinks he can stall and not face war, he's probably going to learn a very sorry lesson.
ZAHN: How long can he stall?
HOLBROOKE: Well...
ZAHN: It is reported this morning Hans Blix is going to go in 10 days after this draft is officially approved, and it remains to be seen how long the inspection process would go on.
HOLBROOKE: Well, I think he will have people in there. Let's say he'll have people in by the third week in November. Then, Iraq has 30 days to give the world, according to this draft -- they may change the number "30" -- but he has 30 days to give the United Nations a complete list of everything he's doing. And then, the U.N. will inspect.
So, there are several trigger points. If Saddam doesn't let the people in, there will be a war very quickly. If Saddam lets the people in but doesn't give a good list, or no list at all, there could be war by the end of this year. If he gives a list, and they start inspecting and they're obstructed, it could start later.
But every stage of the process, Saddam now has to comply, or he will face immediate and severe consequences. And I stress that while the French and the Russians have got the U.S. committed to come back to the U.N. to talk about this, the U.S. is not committed to seek another resolution.
My own guess: That they won't seek another resolution. But they might. This is a diplomatic technicality. The real issue is that the U.S. will get the Security Council's support, and backed with the congressional support of last month, the path is clear for Saddam either to disarm or face a military consequence, which will surely be his defeat.
ZAHN: If the world community has so little faith, because you've seen these resolutions violated so many times in the past, are you saying this morning you think that war is all but inevitable... HOLBROOKE: No.
ZAHN: ... and it's a question of when?
HOLBROOKE: The war is likely, because I don't think it's very likely that Saddam will comply fully. President Bush can make the decision as to whether he'll accept 90 percent compliance or 80 percent, or whether he's going to demand 100 percent. That's for Washington to decide. I think war is more likely than not, but it's not absolutely certain.
ZAHN: And are you satisfied with this whole U.N. track so far?
HOLBROOKE: Yes, I've long advocated, including discussions you and I had on this program, that the road to Baghdad led through the U.N. Security Council. I think if the United States had not followed the course that was laid out on September 12 by President Bush at the U.N., we would be isolated internationally now. Instead, we're going to pick up a substantial majority of the U.N., including support from France and I suspect Russia.
ZAHN: Richard Holbrooke, always good to see you -- former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Thanks for dropping by.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
