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U.N. Chief Weapons Inspector Hans Blix Leaves New York Today

Aired November 15, 2002 - 08:08   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: On to the issue of what's going on at the U.N. U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix leaves New York today, on his way to Cypress. There he will meet up with his advanced team before heading to Baghdad. They will touch down in the Iraqi capital on Monday. Then perhaps the world will start to find out whether Saddam Hussein really intends to cooperate.
Let's turn to Richard Roth, who's standing by at the U.N. with an update -- good morning, Richard.

RICHARD ROTH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Paula.

Well, Mr. Blix, before he departs for Paris Saturday, Cypress Sunday, Baghdad Monday, meets the press one final time here at U.N. headquarters at noon. For Blix, he's likely to get a lot of questions on what will constitute a violation by Iraq. Will it be a 20 minute delay getting into a building? Will it be an hour or two hours? Blix says it's not up to him to determine what is a material breach, but his findings or what he encounters will go a long way towards determining possible U.S. or Security Council action.

Yesterday, his co-inspector of sorts, Muhammed El-Baradei, who handles the nuclear field for the International Atomic Energy Agency, discussed that Iraq must show a pattern of obstruction and delay to constitute a serious breach.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MUHAMMED EL-BARADEI, INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY: We need to go back, look what we see on the ground, use common sense and have been, Hans Blix and I have been saying we are going to use a common sense approach. We have to look at the declaration. If there is a minor omission, you know, and this is clearly not intentional, we are not rushing to the Security Council to say this a material breach.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROTH: The International Atomic Energy Agency and Hans Blix will report back to the Security Council, of course. In Iraq's declaration he referred to a list of weapons sites they must turn over in a matter of weeks -- Paula.

ZAHN: Richard Roth, thanks so much.

And those who have tried to unravel Iraq's weapons programs in the past say that is no easy feat. So Robert Gallucci knows what the inspectors will be in for. He was deputy executive chairman of UNSCOM, which oversaw the disarmament of Iraq, and he took part in weapons inspections there during the early '90s.

Robert Gallucci also happens to be the dean of the Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.

He joins us now.

Nice to see you in person for a change.

ROBERT GALLUCCI, FORMER UNSCOM OFFICIAL: Thank you.

It's a pleasure to be here.

ZAHN: Let's first off talk about this December 8 deadline for Iraq to hand over detailed records of what weapons of mass destruction they posses. Do you think they'll come clean?

GALLUCCI: I think they have to make a choice between actually three types of options. One is to do what they did in their statement when they agreed to accept inspections, which is to say they have nothing, and there's nothing to inspect and nothing to declare and to try, in fact, to hide everything. A second is to be honest about this so they don't get caught by the inspectors finding something which they didn't declare, and they declare everything. I don't think either of those are terribly likely.

I think what is likely is that they will say they have nothing and they will begin, and probably begin now, to begin destroying what weapons capability they have that they think the inspection regime may uncover -- chemical, biological or nuclear weapons development capability.

ZAHN: So then how do U.N. weapons inspectors strategize right now?

GALLUCCI: What I hope they're doing, I expect they're doing, is looking at past inspections -- and there were six years of past inspections -- to figure out where they should inspect, but also making really good contact with the intelligence communities, particularly the American intelligence community, to get guidance about where they ought to go. I don't think in the first few days you'll see very many surprise or exciting inspections. They need, I think, to establish a baseline.

But after that, the question will be where they go that they think they may have weapons to be found that the Iraqis are trying to hide.

ZAHN: Do you think these inspectors will have access to the intelligence that they need to do their jobs because, of course, you had John -- or Scott Ritter out there suggesting that weapons inspectors in the past were being used as spies by the CIA. GALLUCCI: OK, I think that Hans Blix is in a difficult position here. I think on the one hand he wants very much to be doing a job that the Americans, particularly, and others, expect him to do, which is to get good intelligence and go to places where the Iraqis are hiding things. So that is, the incentive there is to really engage the intelligence communities and get as much information as possible.

On the other hand, he doesn't want to be unnecessarily provocative. He doesn't want to provide a trigger for American military action, provide that material breach. So he's going to be careful.

I think for him the tension really is over how much interaction he's comfortable with. He's doing something different than his predecessor did, another Swede, Ralph Akais (ph), whom I worked for. It was a very close relationship with the intelligence community because we felt very, very much, very strongly, that the Iraqis were trying to hide, we were trying to find, they had many advantages in their country, it's a large country, we needed all the help we could get. And we weren't as worried about the critique that we were using intelligence information.

Blix has, instead of having a structure in which the inspectors still work for governments, they all work for the United Nations. And he is trying to build a wall, I think, partially to deal with the critique that Scott Ritter and others made that there was a compromise in the U.N. by its association with the intelligence communities.

So this is a delicate sort of balance to be struck. My own hope is that the, it's closer and more interactive with the intelligence communities, rather than less.

ZAHN: Let me come back to the first point you made, which I think is so fascinating, the -- and, of course, it's hard to predict any of this. But you think it's a likely scenario that they'll come on, the Iraqis on December 8 and say we have nothing and then begin the process of destroying what they have. That's a good thing, isn't it?

GALLUCCI: Yes and no. I think on the one hand, I mean let's start with the first objective. Iraq's objective is not, you know, to be invaded by the United States in coalition with other countries. Its second objective is to keep as much of this reconstituted capability in these three, in actually four weapons areas -- chemical weapons, biological weapons, nuclear weapons development and these ballistic missiles of extended range.

So the question for the regime, for Saddam, is how much can he afford to hide and hope not get found, because if it gets found, then by the standard that President Bush laid out, it's very likely the Americans would push for an initiation of hostilities and the Security Council's support for that. So he's got to strike that balance.

So to say it's a good thing if he starts destroying weapons, I would say any weapons capability that's destroyed is a good thing. But the game here for him -- and I put game in quotes -- is to try to get away with it as much as possible. And everybody has to keep that in mind. This is not a passive environment. The Iraqis will work at penetrating the inspector and inspection regime in Baghdad, in any place they stage from, like Cypress now and Bahrain before, even back in New York.

So this is a very interactive enterprise they're engaged in.

ZAHN: In closing this morning, based on your experience with inspections, is there any doubt in your mind that if he has any of these weapons you just talked about that they have been moved from the presidential sites to individual homes, private homes or elsewhere?

GALLUCCI: Well, they may be moved any number of places and some of these, you know, some of this capability will be harder than other capability to find. Nuclear weapons development capability is relatively easy. It's pretty fixed. It's large. Chemical weapons tend to be large, in large stockpiles and not so hard, plausibly, to be found. The most difficult challenge would be the biological development capability and biological agents, which would be fairly easy, relatively easy to hide.

So, yes, you can expect him to do whatever he thinks will work in terms of hiding that capability from the inspectors. It's a difficult task, no question.

ZAHN: Well, we really appreciate your sharing some of your expertise with us this morning.

GALLUCCI: Thank you.

ZAHN: Robert Gallucci.

GALLUCCI: Thanks very much.

ZAHN: Appreciate your traveling to New York to be with us, too.

GALLUCCI: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Today>


Aired November 15, 2002 - 08:08   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: On to the issue of what's going on at the U.N. U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix leaves New York today, on his way to Cypress. There he will meet up with his advanced team before heading to Baghdad. They will touch down in the Iraqi capital on Monday. Then perhaps the world will start to find out whether Saddam Hussein really intends to cooperate.
Let's turn to Richard Roth, who's standing by at the U.N. with an update -- good morning, Richard.

RICHARD ROTH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Paula.

Well, Mr. Blix, before he departs for Paris Saturday, Cypress Sunday, Baghdad Monday, meets the press one final time here at U.N. headquarters at noon. For Blix, he's likely to get a lot of questions on what will constitute a violation by Iraq. Will it be a 20 minute delay getting into a building? Will it be an hour or two hours? Blix says it's not up to him to determine what is a material breach, but his findings or what he encounters will go a long way towards determining possible U.S. or Security Council action.

Yesterday, his co-inspector of sorts, Muhammed El-Baradei, who handles the nuclear field for the International Atomic Energy Agency, discussed that Iraq must show a pattern of obstruction and delay to constitute a serious breach.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MUHAMMED EL-BARADEI, INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY: We need to go back, look what we see on the ground, use common sense and have been, Hans Blix and I have been saying we are going to use a common sense approach. We have to look at the declaration. If there is a minor omission, you know, and this is clearly not intentional, we are not rushing to the Security Council to say this a material breach.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROTH: The International Atomic Energy Agency and Hans Blix will report back to the Security Council, of course. In Iraq's declaration he referred to a list of weapons sites they must turn over in a matter of weeks -- Paula.

ZAHN: Richard Roth, thanks so much.

And those who have tried to unravel Iraq's weapons programs in the past say that is no easy feat. So Robert Gallucci knows what the inspectors will be in for. He was deputy executive chairman of UNSCOM, which oversaw the disarmament of Iraq, and he took part in weapons inspections there during the early '90s.

Robert Gallucci also happens to be the dean of the Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.

He joins us now.

Nice to see you in person for a change.

ROBERT GALLUCCI, FORMER UNSCOM OFFICIAL: Thank you.

It's a pleasure to be here.

ZAHN: Let's first off talk about this December 8 deadline for Iraq to hand over detailed records of what weapons of mass destruction they posses. Do you think they'll come clean?

GALLUCCI: I think they have to make a choice between actually three types of options. One is to do what they did in their statement when they agreed to accept inspections, which is to say they have nothing, and there's nothing to inspect and nothing to declare and to try, in fact, to hide everything. A second is to be honest about this so they don't get caught by the inspectors finding something which they didn't declare, and they declare everything. I don't think either of those are terribly likely.

I think what is likely is that they will say they have nothing and they will begin, and probably begin now, to begin destroying what weapons capability they have that they think the inspection regime may uncover -- chemical, biological or nuclear weapons development capability.

ZAHN: So then how do U.N. weapons inspectors strategize right now?

GALLUCCI: What I hope they're doing, I expect they're doing, is looking at past inspections -- and there were six years of past inspections -- to figure out where they should inspect, but also making really good contact with the intelligence communities, particularly the American intelligence community, to get guidance about where they ought to go. I don't think in the first few days you'll see very many surprise or exciting inspections. They need, I think, to establish a baseline.

But after that, the question will be where they go that they think they may have weapons to be found that the Iraqis are trying to hide.

ZAHN: Do you think these inspectors will have access to the intelligence that they need to do their jobs because, of course, you had John -- or Scott Ritter out there suggesting that weapons inspectors in the past were being used as spies by the CIA. GALLUCCI: OK, I think that Hans Blix is in a difficult position here. I think on the one hand he wants very much to be doing a job that the Americans, particularly, and others, expect him to do, which is to get good intelligence and go to places where the Iraqis are hiding things. So that is, the incentive there is to really engage the intelligence communities and get as much information as possible.

On the other hand, he doesn't want to be unnecessarily provocative. He doesn't want to provide a trigger for American military action, provide that material breach. So he's going to be careful.

I think for him the tension really is over how much interaction he's comfortable with. He's doing something different than his predecessor did, another Swede, Ralph Akais (ph), whom I worked for. It was a very close relationship with the intelligence community because we felt very, very much, very strongly, that the Iraqis were trying to hide, we were trying to find, they had many advantages in their country, it's a large country, we needed all the help we could get. And we weren't as worried about the critique that we were using intelligence information.

Blix has, instead of having a structure in which the inspectors still work for governments, they all work for the United Nations. And he is trying to build a wall, I think, partially to deal with the critique that Scott Ritter and others made that there was a compromise in the U.N. by its association with the intelligence communities.

So this is a delicate sort of balance to be struck. My own hope is that the, it's closer and more interactive with the intelligence communities, rather than less.

ZAHN: Let me come back to the first point you made, which I think is so fascinating, the -- and, of course, it's hard to predict any of this. But you think it's a likely scenario that they'll come on, the Iraqis on December 8 and say we have nothing and then begin the process of destroying what they have. That's a good thing, isn't it?

GALLUCCI: Yes and no. I think on the one hand, I mean let's start with the first objective. Iraq's objective is not, you know, to be invaded by the United States in coalition with other countries. Its second objective is to keep as much of this reconstituted capability in these three, in actually four weapons areas -- chemical weapons, biological weapons, nuclear weapons development and these ballistic missiles of extended range.

So the question for the regime, for Saddam, is how much can he afford to hide and hope not get found, because if it gets found, then by the standard that President Bush laid out, it's very likely the Americans would push for an initiation of hostilities and the Security Council's support for that. So he's got to strike that balance.

So to say it's a good thing if he starts destroying weapons, I would say any weapons capability that's destroyed is a good thing. But the game here for him -- and I put game in quotes -- is to try to get away with it as much as possible. And everybody has to keep that in mind. This is not a passive environment. The Iraqis will work at penetrating the inspector and inspection regime in Baghdad, in any place they stage from, like Cypress now and Bahrain before, even back in New York.

So this is a very interactive enterprise they're engaged in.

ZAHN: In closing this morning, based on your experience with inspections, is there any doubt in your mind that if he has any of these weapons you just talked about that they have been moved from the presidential sites to individual homes, private homes or elsewhere?

GALLUCCI: Well, they may be moved any number of places and some of these, you know, some of this capability will be harder than other capability to find. Nuclear weapons development capability is relatively easy. It's pretty fixed. It's large. Chemical weapons tend to be large, in large stockpiles and not so hard, plausibly, to be found. The most difficult challenge would be the biological development capability and biological agents, which would be fairly easy, relatively easy to hide.

So, yes, you can expect him to do whatever he thinks will work in terms of hiding that capability from the inspectors. It's a difficult task, no question.

ZAHN: Well, we really appreciate your sharing some of your expertise with us this morning.

GALLUCCI: Thank you.

ZAHN: Robert Gallucci.

GALLUCCI: Thanks very much.

ZAHN: Appreciate your traveling to New York to be with us, too.

GALLUCCI: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






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