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American Morning
Interview with Ehud Barak
Aired November 15, 2002 - 08:19 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Today's reports of a potential spectacular al Qaeda attack, Osama bin Laden apparently resurfacing and the possibility of war with Iraq all have an impact not only here, but also on Israel.
And joining us now to talk about all of this is former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak.
Welcome back.
Good to see you.
First of all, your reaction to this FBI warning that has gone out to some 14,000 law enforcement agencies.
EHUD BARAK, FORMER ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: Well, I feel that they have no way but to launch such a warning. But the reality is that we already have heard this combination of two words, spectacular attacks, even a year and more than a year before 9/11. I remember it as the prime minister of Israel had of our defense establishment, we had already been through that. At the time, no one knew what to do with spectacular attacks, prepared by Osama bin Laden.
But nowadays, after 9/11, there is no way to ignore it and not share it with the public. That's the reason why I believe they say it.
ZAHN: We don't want to make people unnecessarily concerned out there. We should make it clear that the U.S. government has not raised the level of alert here. We are at the color yellow now. But should they be?
BARAK: I believe that they are taking the right steps. Basically, the public should know and since this is something that, you know, it's not really new, we are at a world war against terror and steps should be taken, you know. So we should realize the timing is not an incident. Osama bin Laden feels that the focus is going on Saddam Hussein and he feels that that's the right timing to put America and the world on alert for other issues, maybe to help once again detract or deflect the attention from Saddam Hussein.
ZAHN: I think what has probably concerned more Americans even than that warning is what Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday, if there is military action against Iraq, that he anticipates that we will probably see an increased level of terror directed at Americans. Do you share that feeling? BARAK: Yes, I share that feeling and we might even find that Saddam Hussein, behind-the-scenes, will try to cooperate with some affiliates of these terror holding off shore company called al Qaeda. And I believe that the struggle is the same. Basically it's a gestalt. You cannot separate it and say why didn't you get a hold of Osama bin Laden before you turned to Saddam Hussein. They are two arms of the same world terror kind of wild kind of operation.
ZAHN: Now, there is no direct evidence, that at least U.S. officials have pointed out to the American public, that would suggest that Saddam Hussein is in business with al Qaeda. There have been reports of a handful of al Qaeda agents operating in northern Iraq.
Are you telling us there is significant information that would show that he's working in tandem with al Qaeda?
BARAK: I tell you that you should not wait until you have the hard evidence of this. It is clear that both Saddam Hussein will do whatever he can to hide his relationship to world terror and Osama bin Laden will do whatever he can to hide his relationship with Saddam Hussein and other rogue states. And they are quite experienced in it.
What we know about the way world terror works allow us to assume even without hard evidence that there are such connections and to the readiness to act upon these assumptions is essential in this critical war against world terror. You cannot wait until the next spectacular attack and then draw the conclusion that there was some relationship between the two.
ZAHN: Meanwhile, describe to us what Israel is in the process of doing as the debate rages on whether the inspections are going to work and whether ultimately we will see a military conflict.
BARAK: We in Israel assume that at a certain point there will be a military operation against Iraq and that at a certain stage of this military operation will Saddam feel cornered and about to end his career, he might try to use even chemical or biological agents or weapons against American forces, neighboring countries or Israel.
We are taking a lot of steps, and I believe that a lot of steps are taken by the American military planners to try to avoid such an order, if given, from being completed successfully. There are a lot of links in this chain of operations that should take place and some thought is invested in any link in order to reduce the probability that they will be carried out successfully.
For example, target acquisition and high precision munitions and the operational cycle to hit targets somewhere in the western desert of Iraq where the few launchers might be deployed is in much better shape than it was 11 years ago. Israel has its Arrow anti-ballistic missiles that give certain answer for these incoming SCUDs. We have a look down shoot down air force and there are very capable Patriot batteries against drones that might come carrying with them weapons of mass destruction.
ZAHN: But those systems aren't foolproof. BARAK: Yes, nothing is foolproof. We should take into account the belief that something will hit us, but paralyzes and inaction carries with it much far reaching danger that far exceeds the dangers of taking this calculated risk. And beyond this, you know, we, the whole people of Israel carry protection gear against chemical warfare and we accumulated huge amounts of aggressive antibiotics against, at least against several types of anthrax.
And so, you know, we did whatever we could think, even vaccinating first responders against smallpox. So we have enough serum in their blood in a case that the full vaccination is needed.
ZAHN: So there's no doubt in your mind there's going to be a war. When are you predicting this is going to happen? How far is the U.N. process going to play out?
BARAK: I believe that you will find it very complicated to call the bluff of Saddam Hussein. He's highly manipulative. He will try to put a wedge between the United States and the rest of the world -- France, Russia, the Chinese and Kofi Annan, by telling them enough to justify their statement that there is no material breach. But I believe that at a certain point there will be no way but to step forward against him, maybe, probably within the next half a year or so, I think less than half a year, at certain point.
It could deteriorate in a cascade of events into an earlier need, maybe the beginning of next year, more probably several months later.
ZAHN: Yes, there are, I guess, many points in that time line where there could be potential conflict.
Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, as always, good to see you.
BARAK: Thank you.
ZAHN: Thanks for your time this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired November 15, 2002 - 08:19 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Today's reports of a potential spectacular al Qaeda attack, Osama bin Laden apparently resurfacing and the possibility of war with Iraq all have an impact not only here, but also on Israel.
And joining us now to talk about all of this is former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak.
Welcome back.
Good to see you.
First of all, your reaction to this FBI warning that has gone out to some 14,000 law enforcement agencies.
EHUD BARAK, FORMER ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: Well, I feel that they have no way but to launch such a warning. But the reality is that we already have heard this combination of two words, spectacular attacks, even a year and more than a year before 9/11. I remember it as the prime minister of Israel had of our defense establishment, we had already been through that. At the time, no one knew what to do with spectacular attacks, prepared by Osama bin Laden.
But nowadays, after 9/11, there is no way to ignore it and not share it with the public. That's the reason why I believe they say it.
ZAHN: We don't want to make people unnecessarily concerned out there. We should make it clear that the U.S. government has not raised the level of alert here. We are at the color yellow now. But should they be?
BARAK: I believe that they are taking the right steps. Basically, the public should know and since this is something that, you know, it's not really new, we are at a world war against terror and steps should be taken, you know. So we should realize the timing is not an incident. Osama bin Laden feels that the focus is going on Saddam Hussein and he feels that that's the right timing to put America and the world on alert for other issues, maybe to help once again detract or deflect the attention from Saddam Hussein.
ZAHN: I think what has probably concerned more Americans even than that warning is what Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday, if there is military action against Iraq, that he anticipates that we will probably see an increased level of terror directed at Americans. Do you share that feeling? BARAK: Yes, I share that feeling and we might even find that Saddam Hussein, behind-the-scenes, will try to cooperate with some affiliates of these terror holding off shore company called al Qaeda. And I believe that the struggle is the same. Basically it's a gestalt. You cannot separate it and say why didn't you get a hold of Osama bin Laden before you turned to Saddam Hussein. They are two arms of the same world terror kind of wild kind of operation.
ZAHN: Now, there is no direct evidence, that at least U.S. officials have pointed out to the American public, that would suggest that Saddam Hussein is in business with al Qaeda. There have been reports of a handful of al Qaeda agents operating in northern Iraq.
Are you telling us there is significant information that would show that he's working in tandem with al Qaeda?
BARAK: I tell you that you should not wait until you have the hard evidence of this. It is clear that both Saddam Hussein will do whatever he can to hide his relationship to world terror and Osama bin Laden will do whatever he can to hide his relationship with Saddam Hussein and other rogue states. And they are quite experienced in it.
What we know about the way world terror works allow us to assume even without hard evidence that there are such connections and to the readiness to act upon these assumptions is essential in this critical war against world terror. You cannot wait until the next spectacular attack and then draw the conclusion that there was some relationship between the two.
ZAHN: Meanwhile, describe to us what Israel is in the process of doing as the debate rages on whether the inspections are going to work and whether ultimately we will see a military conflict.
BARAK: We in Israel assume that at a certain point there will be a military operation against Iraq and that at a certain stage of this military operation will Saddam feel cornered and about to end his career, he might try to use even chemical or biological agents or weapons against American forces, neighboring countries or Israel.
We are taking a lot of steps, and I believe that a lot of steps are taken by the American military planners to try to avoid such an order, if given, from being completed successfully. There are a lot of links in this chain of operations that should take place and some thought is invested in any link in order to reduce the probability that they will be carried out successfully.
For example, target acquisition and high precision munitions and the operational cycle to hit targets somewhere in the western desert of Iraq where the few launchers might be deployed is in much better shape than it was 11 years ago. Israel has its Arrow anti-ballistic missiles that give certain answer for these incoming SCUDs. We have a look down shoot down air force and there are very capable Patriot batteries against drones that might come carrying with them weapons of mass destruction.
ZAHN: But those systems aren't foolproof. BARAK: Yes, nothing is foolproof. We should take into account the belief that something will hit us, but paralyzes and inaction carries with it much far reaching danger that far exceeds the dangers of taking this calculated risk. And beyond this, you know, we, the whole people of Israel carry protection gear against chemical warfare and we accumulated huge amounts of aggressive antibiotics against, at least against several types of anthrax.
And so, you know, we did whatever we could think, even vaccinating first responders against smallpox. So we have enough serum in their blood in a case that the full vaccination is needed.
ZAHN: So there's no doubt in your mind there's going to be a war. When are you predicting this is going to happen? How far is the U.N. process going to play out?
BARAK: I believe that you will find it very complicated to call the bluff of Saddam Hussein. He's highly manipulative. He will try to put a wedge between the United States and the rest of the world -- France, Russia, the Chinese and Kofi Annan, by telling them enough to justify their statement that there is no material breach. But I believe that at a certain point there will be no way but to step forward against him, maybe, probably within the next half a year or so, I think less than half a year, at certain point.
It could deteriorate in a cascade of events into an earlier need, maybe the beginning of next year, more probably several months later.
ZAHN: Yes, there are, I guess, many points in that time line where there could be potential conflict.
Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, as always, good to see you.
BARAK: Thank you.
ZAHN: Thanks for your time this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
