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Hussein Calling Emergency Session of Parliament to Consider Iraq's Response to New U.N. Resolution
Aired November 20, 2002 - 07:34 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: With the Bush administration now saying any failure to comply by Iraq could lead to war, Saddam Hussein is calling an emergency session of parliament today to consider Iraq's response to the new U.N. resolution.
In Baghdad now, we are joined by Jane Arraf, who joins us live with the very latest -- good morning, Jane.
JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Paula.
While that national assemble is going to discuss this resolution, it will be Saddam Hussein's Revolution Command Council that actually decides. Now, they're meeting in just a few hours, the national assembly, to talk about the resolution, and there's a lot to talk about. They're bound to have quite a few objections to it, although, in the end, they're expected to recommend to the Revolution Command Council that Iraq accept the terms.
Now, Iraq's Arab allies at the Arab League meeting of foreign ministers in Cairo that's just wrapped up have been saying essentially the same thing, that Iraq really does have to let the weapons inspectors back in.
But at the same time, those Arab countries are warning that the United States can't use a resolution as grounds for an automatic attack on Iraq -- Paula.
ZAHN: So I guess the expectation is, by a lot of folks in the United States, that Saddam Hussein will not comply, he'll go through a little cat and mouse game with inspectors. What is the expectation there, that war can be averted or that he will, in fact, come clean?
ARRAF: Well, it's a very different ball game than it was when the last inspectors were in in 1998. They were here for seven years and that was a very long, drawn out process, obviously. Now, this is really going to zip along compared to that. There are very strict deadlines set in the resolution. And it's really not in Iraq's interests to play a cat and mouse game. It's under no illusions, really, that it has many more chances than this.
So Iraq says that it will comply fully, although with these protests and reservations, protests about its security and sovereignty. But it does say that it has no weapons and it hopes that that's what the weapons inspectors will come here and certify, to get this all over with -- Paula.
ZAHN: Jane Arraf, thanks for that update.
Appreciate it.
Now, even if Saddam Hussein gives weapons inspectors the go ahead, their jobs will not be easy. What would inspectors face and what could stand in their way?
Joining us now from Washington is a former U.N. weapons inspector, Terrence Taylor, now with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Welcome, Mr. Taylor.
TERRENCE TAYLOR, FORMER WEAPONS INSPECTOR: Good morning.
ZAHN: A quick question for you, what do you think this new round of inspectors will be up against?
TAYLOR: Paula, it would be hard to see that they would be easily allowed access and not obstructed in some way or another. But much depends on how the Iraqi regime reacts. If they make a declaration, for example, that they have no such weapons at all -- nuclear, biological and chemical weapons -- that's going to be hardly credible. So we'll be back into a cat and mouse game all over again.
But I'd be surprised to see full cooperation, perhaps some limited cooperation.
ZAHN: So what do you think Iraq would be willing to declare in this first stage of the process?
TAYLOR: Well, that's the big question. I think it's quite clear they have to declare something. I think if they make a nil declaration, in other words, they have none of these weapons, I don't think that will be acceptable to Washington, London and a few others, as well.
So I would expect to see some kind of limited declaration of military programs, biological and chemical, in particular, and perhaps even on the missile side. But I think we'll just have to wait and see when they make the so-called full and final, complete declaration.
ZAHN: There is obviously a huge distinction to be made between inspectors getting unfettered access to sites and Iraqi compliance. Walk us through what some of the pitfalls could be for investigators.
TAYLOR: Well, I think the inspectors have to make their own independent plans and see where they're going to go. They have to build their baseline back up again first, in other words, restore the state of knowledge when the inspectors left in 1998. And then they have to go for places where they think weapons might be hidden. And so this surprise approach to inspections, I think, will be an important element.
It remains to be seen how, to what extent the Iraqis would cooperate with this. Without some Iraqi cooperation, these inspections will not succeed.
ZAHN: I know that former weapons inspector David Kay has been on our show a number of times explaining the number of roadblocks the Iraqis put in inspectors' way, among other things, traffic jams, flat tires. He said he was left the distinct impression on a number of inspections things were going out the back door as the inspectors were arriving at the front door. What were you up against? What did you see?
TAYLOR: Well, some similar things to that, although I have to say that when the Iraqis make up their mind to give a show of cooperation, I think things happen rather differently. And so the kinds of things I was confronted with were perhaps people we asked to interview not being present or spirited away, being given documents which ere, in fact, found out to be forged and some obstruction of progress and access into places.
For example, one on occasion some kind of demonstration was fabricated on the part of students at a site that I needed to get into. These kinds of things are put in one's way.
But I think if this happens on this occasion, I think a very dim view of this will be taken by Washington and London and other capitals. So I think that kind of obstruction will not be tolerated this time.
ZAHN: There has been so much talk about the importance of the presidential sites. Now there is a view shared by a number of people at the Pentagon that Saddam Hussein has already moved weapons from the presidential sites into individual private homes. Do you share that concern?
TAYLOR: Well, I think that's certainly happened in the past. During the 1990s certainly documents and materials were moved into private homes. So the inspectors have to be ready to go anywhere. I don't think we should be obsessed with these so-called presidential sites. They are, in fact, very large compounds with many, many hundreds of buildings above the ground and under the ground.
They have to be looked at and no particular place, I think, should be regarded as off limits, otherwise, again, that's an obstruction, really, of the inspectors' work.
ZAHN: In closing this morning, where do you see this whole process going once the inspections start? Do you see it working? Do you see Saddam Hussein complying? Or do you ultimately see war?
TAYLOR: Well, if you want my guess, I would say that we would see initially cooperation of some kind, just enough, perhaps, to stave off the use of force or to make it difficult for the U.N. Security Council to come to a united conclusion about what is happening.
So I think for the first 60 days or so of inspection, we'll see some kind of cooperation. And I think the regime will try to divide the Security Council over the extent of the cooperation.
ZAHN: But Saddam Hussein doesn't have a lot of chances left.
TAYLOR: He certainly doesn't.
ZAHN: Do you think he's going to blow it?
TAYLOR: He has a record of making very bad strategic decisions, including war with Iran, the invasion of Kuwait. He's done enormous damage to his own country and its infrastructure. So we can't gamble on him making the right strategic decision.
ZAHN: Terrence Taylor, always good to have you on the air. Very much appreciate your perspective.
TAYLOR: Well, thank you.
ZAHN: Look forward to having you back -- Bill.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Consider Iraq's Response to New U.N. Resolution>
Aired November 20, 2002 - 07:34 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: With the Bush administration now saying any failure to comply by Iraq could lead to war, Saddam Hussein is calling an emergency session of parliament today to consider Iraq's response to the new U.N. resolution.
In Baghdad now, we are joined by Jane Arraf, who joins us live with the very latest -- good morning, Jane.
JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Paula.
While that national assemble is going to discuss this resolution, it will be Saddam Hussein's Revolution Command Council that actually decides. Now, they're meeting in just a few hours, the national assembly, to talk about the resolution, and there's a lot to talk about. They're bound to have quite a few objections to it, although, in the end, they're expected to recommend to the Revolution Command Council that Iraq accept the terms.
Now, Iraq's Arab allies at the Arab League meeting of foreign ministers in Cairo that's just wrapped up have been saying essentially the same thing, that Iraq really does have to let the weapons inspectors back in.
But at the same time, those Arab countries are warning that the United States can't use a resolution as grounds for an automatic attack on Iraq -- Paula.
ZAHN: So I guess the expectation is, by a lot of folks in the United States, that Saddam Hussein will not comply, he'll go through a little cat and mouse game with inspectors. What is the expectation there, that war can be averted or that he will, in fact, come clean?
ARRAF: Well, it's a very different ball game than it was when the last inspectors were in in 1998. They were here for seven years and that was a very long, drawn out process, obviously. Now, this is really going to zip along compared to that. There are very strict deadlines set in the resolution. And it's really not in Iraq's interests to play a cat and mouse game. It's under no illusions, really, that it has many more chances than this.
So Iraq says that it will comply fully, although with these protests and reservations, protests about its security and sovereignty. But it does say that it has no weapons and it hopes that that's what the weapons inspectors will come here and certify, to get this all over with -- Paula.
ZAHN: Jane Arraf, thanks for that update.
Appreciate it.
Now, even if Saddam Hussein gives weapons inspectors the go ahead, their jobs will not be easy. What would inspectors face and what could stand in their way?
Joining us now from Washington is a former U.N. weapons inspector, Terrence Taylor, now with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Welcome, Mr. Taylor.
TERRENCE TAYLOR, FORMER WEAPONS INSPECTOR: Good morning.
ZAHN: A quick question for you, what do you think this new round of inspectors will be up against?
TAYLOR: Paula, it would be hard to see that they would be easily allowed access and not obstructed in some way or another. But much depends on how the Iraqi regime reacts. If they make a declaration, for example, that they have no such weapons at all -- nuclear, biological and chemical weapons -- that's going to be hardly credible. So we'll be back into a cat and mouse game all over again.
But I'd be surprised to see full cooperation, perhaps some limited cooperation.
ZAHN: So what do you think Iraq would be willing to declare in this first stage of the process?
TAYLOR: Well, that's the big question. I think it's quite clear they have to declare something. I think if they make a nil declaration, in other words, they have none of these weapons, I don't think that will be acceptable to Washington, London and a few others, as well.
So I would expect to see some kind of limited declaration of military programs, biological and chemical, in particular, and perhaps even on the missile side. But I think we'll just have to wait and see when they make the so-called full and final, complete declaration.
ZAHN: There is obviously a huge distinction to be made between inspectors getting unfettered access to sites and Iraqi compliance. Walk us through what some of the pitfalls could be for investigators.
TAYLOR: Well, I think the inspectors have to make their own independent plans and see where they're going to go. They have to build their baseline back up again first, in other words, restore the state of knowledge when the inspectors left in 1998. And then they have to go for places where they think weapons might be hidden. And so this surprise approach to inspections, I think, will be an important element.
It remains to be seen how, to what extent the Iraqis would cooperate with this. Without some Iraqi cooperation, these inspections will not succeed.
ZAHN: I know that former weapons inspector David Kay has been on our show a number of times explaining the number of roadblocks the Iraqis put in inspectors' way, among other things, traffic jams, flat tires. He said he was left the distinct impression on a number of inspections things were going out the back door as the inspectors were arriving at the front door. What were you up against? What did you see?
TAYLOR: Well, some similar things to that, although I have to say that when the Iraqis make up their mind to give a show of cooperation, I think things happen rather differently. And so the kinds of things I was confronted with were perhaps people we asked to interview not being present or spirited away, being given documents which ere, in fact, found out to be forged and some obstruction of progress and access into places.
For example, one on occasion some kind of demonstration was fabricated on the part of students at a site that I needed to get into. These kinds of things are put in one's way.
But I think if this happens on this occasion, I think a very dim view of this will be taken by Washington and London and other capitals. So I think that kind of obstruction will not be tolerated this time.
ZAHN: There has been so much talk about the importance of the presidential sites. Now there is a view shared by a number of people at the Pentagon that Saddam Hussein has already moved weapons from the presidential sites into individual private homes. Do you share that concern?
TAYLOR: Well, I think that's certainly happened in the past. During the 1990s certainly documents and materials were moved into private homes. So the inspectors have to be ready to go anywhere. I don't think we should be obsessed with these so-called presidential sites. They are, in fact, very large compounds with many, many hundreds of buildings above the ground and under the ground.
They have to be looked at and no particular place, I think, should be regarded as off limits, otherwise, again, that's an obstruction, really, of the inspectors' work.
ZAHN: In closing this morning, where do you see this whole process going once the inspections start? Do you see it working? Do you see Saddam Hussein complying? Or do you ultimately see war?
TAYLOR: Well, if you want my guess, I would say that we would see initially cooperation of some kind, just enough, perhaps, to stave off the use of force or to make it difficult for the U.N. Security Council to come to a united conclusion about what is happening.
So I think for the first 60 days or so of inspection, we'll see some kind of cooperation. And I think the regime will try to divide the Security Council over the extent of the cooperation.
ZAHN: But Saddam Hussein doesn't have a lot of chances left.
TAYLOR: He certainly doesn't.
ZAHN: Do you think he's going to blow it?
TAYLOR: He has a record of making very bad strategic decisions, including war with Iran, the invasion of Kuwait. He's done enormous damage to his own country and its infrastructure. So we can't gamble on him making the right strategic decision.
ZAHN: Terrence Taylor, always good to have you on the air. Very much appreciate your perspective.
TAYLOR: Well, thank you.
ZAHN: Look forward to having you back -- Bill.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Consider Iraq's Response to New U.N. Resolution>
