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CNN Live Saturday

Can Republicans Move Their Agenda in Congress?

Aired December 21, 2002 - 17:12   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


RENAY SAN MIGUEL, CNN ANCHOR: More on the political controversy of the week. With Trent Lott out as leader and Bill Frist in, can the Republican-led Congress move forward with its agenda? For answers, let's turn to Ron Brownstein. He's a political writer for "The Los Angeles Times" and CNN's political analyst. Ron, thanks for being with us today.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Renay. Good afternoon.

SAN MIGUEL: I'm wondering, the speed at which Lott lost support late this week and the 180-degree turnaround, Thursday saying I'm not leaving as majority leader, Friday saying I have to leave as majority leader, indicates that maybe his support was soft in the first place?

BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely. I mean, part of what sustained Trent Lott over the years was the absence of a good alternative in the eyes of many of the Senate Republicans, and once Senator Frist, who became popular with many of his colleagues by leading the Senatorial Campaign Committee this fall in their successful election, once he made himself available, you had an attractive alternative, and at that point, the doubts about Lott were really given permission, in effect, to fully flower.

SAN MIGUEL: The idea here, though, is that doesn't Lott -- didn't Lott give the Democrats in the issue of race a quiver, an arrow in their quiver for 2004 -- and not to say that the Democrats, of course, it was the late '40s and early '50s, those southern Democrats have kept any kind of civil rights legislation bottled up, but you know, how much will this really continue to cause damage with the Republicans going ahead?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think it's short term turbulence, but long term, probably a benefit to the party to replace Lott with Frist. In the short term, it will make some elements of the president's agenda a bit more difficult, particularly one or two of the judicial nominations. They've talked about renominating Charles Pickering, who they wanted to put on an appellate court, was defeated by the Democratic-controlled then Senate Judiciary Committee. He's very close to Lott. Has had questions raised about his racial sensitivity. It's going to be much harder to go forward with that.

But in the long run, Frist offers them a leader who is much more in tune, in style and approach with the compassionate conservative agenda that Bush has tried to promote, and Lott, who was more of a traditional Southern conservative, and I think even before this -- I mean, part of the reason he fell so quickly, was that even before this, a lot of Republicans were uneasy with him being such a visible spokesman for the party. This really was the straw that broke the back.

SAN MIGUEL: But, as we all know, the Democrats and the media will be combing through Frist's background here. We've already heard Jason Carroll and others talk about this HCA situation. Is there anything in the issue of race that might come back to haunt Bill Frist?

BROWNSTEIN: No, I don't think -- I think -- I would be surprised if there is anything in race. He really is part of that next generation of southern Republicans, who bind themselves and attract white voters around issues like national security, social issues on abortion and guns, and taxes, and really have avoided any kind of racial signaling that Lott was, I believe, was doing in that speech.

Where Frist may be more controversial, where it's going to be intriguing, is in health care. He's been very active in trying to develop a conservative agenda on health care. It's an issue that's really rising in public concern, as insurance premium costs rise, as the number of uninsured also rise. And he is someone who has some ideas that may prove very controversial, particularly on restructuring Medicare. That's an area that is going to be intriguing to watch over the coming year.

SAN MIGUEL: You know, you just partially answered my next question, which was can we expect more move -- I mean, just because he's a doctor, and everybody is focusing on this, the first doctor in the Senate since 1928, I believe, expect more movement and more creative solutions, perhaps, on prescription drugs and health insurance and those kinds of things?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I do think you're going to see more of a focus on this. Events were forcing the White House in this direction anyway. As I said, the number of uninsured increased by over a million in 2001 and it's probably going to go up again by over two million in 2002. The cost of insurance is rising by double digits. State governments are in the squeeze financially and they are being forced to cut back on Medicaid, which will increase the number of people without insurance again, so across the board, there's desire for new approaches.

I think the White House is going to move more aggressively that many people might have expected to restructure and reform Medicare, which affects some 40 million senior citizens. I mean, it's a program with a very large reach. Bush's ideas in this area were already shaped by Frist. In 2000, when President Bush put out his Medicare reform package, which really has been dormant the last two years, it was largely based on a package that Frist had developed with John Breaux. So I do think in this whole area, prescription drugs, the uninsured, Medicare and a patient's bill of rights, you will see a new impetus by Republicans to try to resolve it, but still a lot of resistance by Democrats to the basic ideas that Frist has (UNINTELLIGIBLE). SAN MIGUEL: You know, you say that Bill Frist offers more -- is more in tune with what the Bush White House is trying to put out there, in terms of the GOP agenda. But can he show the independence? I mean, he helped to fashion this stem cell compromise of the summer of 2001. But on his Web site, he says he did support embryonic stem cell research, not just adult stem cell research as well. So do you see any kind of, you know, any kind of differentiation between what the Bush White House is saying on some of these controversial issues and Bill Frist?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think Frist will be under some scrutiny by his colleagues to ensure that he really is independent to some degree of the White House, but that can really only go so far. The fact is that when you have a president of your own party and you are the Senate majority leader, you are basically subordinate to the White House, both in the House and the Senate. On the vast majority of issues, the vast majority of Republicans have been willing to go down the line with Bush, supporting him pretty much on all of his key initiatives. From the tax cuts to his approach to energy to his approach to the patient's bill of rights.

So I think that to some extent this desire for independence is overstated, because anybody in that job, whether it's Trent Lott or Bill Frist or Mitch McConnell is going to be following the lead largely of a president from his own party.

SAN MIGUEL: Got you. Well, I know you've already had a busy week, and we appreciate you coming in on a Saturday to talk with us about this. Ron Brownstein, with "The L.S. Times" and CNN's political analyst, thanks a lot.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired December 21, 2002 - 17:12   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
RENAY SAN MIGUEL, CNN ANCHOR: More on the political controversy of the week. With Trent Lott out as leader and Bill Frist in, can the Republican-led Congress move forward with its agenda? For answers, let's turn to Ron Brownstein. He's a political writer for "The Los Angeles Times" and CNN's political analyst. Ron, thanks for being with us today.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Renay. Good afternoon.

SAN MIGUEL: I'm wondering, the speed at which Lott lost support late this week and the 180-degree turnaround, Thursday saying I'm not leaving as majority leader, Friday saying I have to leave as majority leader, indicates that maybe his support was soft in the first place?

BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely. I mean, part of what sustained Trent Lott over the years was the absence of a good alternative in the eyes of many of the Senate Republicans, and once Senator Frist, who became popular with many of his colleagues by leading the Senatorial Campaign Committee this fall in their successful election, once he made himself available, you had an attractive alternative, and at that point, the doubts about Lott were really given permission, in effect, to fully flower.

SAN MIGUEL: The idea here, though, is that doesn't Lott -- didn't Lott give the Democrats in the issue of race a quiver, an arrow in their quiver for 2004 -- and not to say that the Democrats, of course, it was the late '40s and early '50s, those southern Democrats have kept any kind of civil rights legislation bottled up, but you know, how much will this really continue to cause damage with the Republicans going ahead?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think it's short term turbulence, but long term, probably a benefit to the party to replace Lott with Frist. In the short term, it will make some elements of the president's agenda a bit more difficult, particularly one or two of the judicial nominations. They've talked about renominating Charles Pickering, who they wanted to put on an appellate court, was defeated by the Democratic-controlled then Senate Judiciary Committee. He's very close to Lott. Has had questions raised about his racial sensitivity. It's going to be much harder to go forward with that.

But in the long run, Frist offers them a leader who is much more in tune, in style and approach with the compassionate conservative agenda that Bush has tried to promote, and Lott, who was more of a traditional Southern conservative, and I think even before this -- I mean, part of the reason he fell so quickly, was that even before this, a lot of Republicans were uneasy with him being such a visible spokesman for the party. This really was the straw that broke the back.

SAN MIGUEL: But, as we all know, the Democrats and the media will be combing through Frist's background here. We've already heard Jason Carroll and others talk about this HCA situation. Is there anything in the issue of race that might come back to haunt Bill Frist?

BROWNSTEIN: No, I don't think -- I think -- I would be surprised if there is anything in race. He really is part of that next generation of southern Republicans, who bind themselves and attract white voters around issues like national security, social issues on abortion and guns, and taxes, and really have avoided any kind of racial signaling that Lott was, I believe, was doing in that speech.

Where Frist may be more controversial, where it's going to be intriguing, is in health care. He's been very active in trying to develop a conservative agenda on health care. It's an issue that's really rising in public concern, as insurance premium costs rise, as the number of uninsured also rise. And he is someone who has some ideas that may prove very controversial, particularly on restructuring Medicare. That's an area that is going to be intriguing to watch over the coming year.

SAN MIGUEL: You know, you just partially answered my next question, which was can we expect more move -- I mean, just because he's a doctor, and everybody is focusing on this, the first doctor in the Senate since 1928, I believe, expect more movement and more creative solutions, perhaps, on prescription drugs and health insurance and those kinds of things?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I do think you're going to see more of a focus on this. Events were forcing the White House in this direction anyway. As I said, the number of uninsured increased by over a million in 2001 and it's probably going to go up again by over two million in 2002. The cost of insurance is rising by double digits. State governments are in the squeeze financially and they are being forced to cut back on Medicaid, which will increase the number of people without insurance again, so across the board, there's desire for new approaches.

I think the White House is going to move more aggressively that many people might have expected to restructure and reform Medicare, which affects some 40 million senior citizens. I mean, it's a program with a very large reach. Bush's ideas in this area were already shaped by Frist. In 2000, when President Bush put out his Medicare reform package, which really has been dormant the last two years, it was largely based on a package that Frist had developed with John Breaux. So I do think in this whole area, prescription drugs, the uninsured, Medicare and a patient's bill of rights, you will see a new impetus by Republicans to try to resolve it, but still a lot of resistance by Democrats to the basic ideas that Frist has (UNINTELLIGIBLE). SAN MIGUEL: You know, you say that Bill Frist offers more -- is more in tune with what the Bush White House is trying to put out there, in terms of the GOP agenda. But can he show the independence? I mean, he helped to fashion this stem cell compromise of the summer of 2001. But on his Web site, he says he did support embryonic stem cell research, not just adult stem cell research as well. So do you see any kind of, you know, any kind of differentiation between what the Bush White House is saying on some of these controversial issues and Bill Frist?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think Frist will be under some scrutiny by his colleagues to ensure that he really is independent to some degree of the White House, but that can really only go so far. The fact is that when you have a president of your own party and you are the Senate majority leader, you are basically subordinate to the White House, both in the House and the Senate. On the vast majority of issues, the vast majority of Republicans have been willing to go down the line with Bush, supporting him pretty much on all of his key initiatives. From the tax cuts to his approach to energy to his approach to the patient's bill of rights.

So I think that to some extent this desire for independence is overstated, because anybody in that job, whether it's Trent Lott or Bill Frist or Mitch McConnell is going to be following the lead largely of a president from his own party.

SAN MIGUEL: Got you. Well, I know you've already had a busy week, and we appreciate you coming in on a Saturday to talk with us about this. Ron Brownstein, with "The L.S. Times" and CNN's political analyst, thanks a lot.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com