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American Morning

Terrorism Analysis With Expert Mansoor Ijaz

Aired January 01, 2003 - 07:12   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: War with Iraq becomes evermore threatening. There are signs of an increased threat from al Qaeda starting to surface. There have been warnings about possible terrorist activity in New York Harbor. We've been hearing about that; also about freighters at sea, and while the FBI continues to hunt for five men who they say entered the U.S. with fake passports.
Mansoor Ijaz is an expert on terrorism. He joins us on this New Year's morning.

Good morning -- thanks for joining us on this holiday.

MANSOOR IJAZ, TERRORISM EXPERT: Happy New Year.

KAGAN: Happy New Year to you, too.

IJAZ: Thank you.

KAGAN: A lot of Americans out there are probably going, whew, we made it through New Year's Eve, will probably make it through the New Year's holiday, we can sit back and breathe easy. Do you think that's a good attitude?

IJAZ: Well, we should never let our guard down, because there is no question but that the al Qaeda threat against us is as serious as it has ever been. And that the movement of people -- you know, al Qaeda has not changed its framework of operations completely. They've decentralized the way in which they give their instructions. They've decentralized the way in which they allow those instructions to be carried out.

These five men that supposedly we're looking right now for are probably from the northwest frontier province of Pakistan.

KAGAN: Yes, what do you make of them, and why do you think that that's where they're from?

IJAZ: I think -- well, you can tell from the faces, first of all. But the reason that it's important to understand this is because the way that the bin Laden framework has now been dispersed, they're probably operating in the northwest frontier province.

This morning on the front page of "The Washington Post," we have the first indication of clashes between Pakistani soldiers in that tribal -- lawless tribal region and U.S. soldiers. So, they may be carrying an instruction set across the way.

You know, now the way al Qaeda communicates is not by telephone or e-mail anymore. They do everything in human chains, linkages, and that's why these freighters are so important. They're not instruments, you know, of blowing something up in a harbor as much as they are their transportation systems.

KAGAN: Yes, I want to get to the freighters in just a moment.

IJAZ: Yes.

KAGAN: But first, more on these five men, coming across, we believe, the Canadian to the New York state border...

IJAZ: Yes.

KAGAN: ... with fake British passports. Anything else that you can make more of that story?

IJAZ: Yes, I mean, what this shows is that Europe remains a staging ground for the way in which al Qaeda is operating against the United States. Canada has now become an accessory staging ground, and there is no question but that they are trying to surround the United States with ability to get in and infiltrate. The sleeper cells that are already here, that were probably here before September 11 took place, those sleeper cells need to have new instructions sets, and I think these people are being infiltrated in to bring those instructions in.

KAGAN: And so, does it help by publicizing and putting their pictures out there that these men are wanted?

IJAZ: You bet.

KAGAN: It does?

IJAZ: You bet.

KAGAN: Might it foil whatever plot they might have been up to?

IJAZ: It would certainly make it more difficult for them to carry it out, and I think an increased level of awareness in the American public is very important.

And I would also say that this is now an opportunity for the American -- the Muslim and Arab-American communities to step up to the plate and demonstrate with actions, not their words, that they really are concerned with trying to find a way to help America protect the homeland.

KAGAN: You're in that community.

IJAZ: Yes.

KAGAN: Is there a reluctance to do that? IJAZ: There's a great reluctance. And in fact, you know, it's very sad. I've spent the last three or four days since this story came out talking to people around the country at the imams and the mosques and so forth. And it's almost as if they say this is not our problem, it's somebody else's problem, and let them worry about it.

And the FBI, they think the FBI is violating their civil rights, and I keep trying to explain to them, you are a citizen first, and if you don't have citizenship in this country, civil rights really don't mean anything.

KAGAN: One more minute, I want to get to this freighter story that ran in "The Washington Post" earlier this week, a concern that al Qaeda using freighters perhaps as a weapon, but you think a different purpose for using freighters.

IJAZ: The higher probability is that they need these freighters to be able to move their men and their equipment around from place to place. It's very important for the American people to understand that al Qaeda is very patient and very calibrated in everything that they're doing. The attacks in Bali, in Kenya, against the shipping lanes in Yemen -- all of these various attacks that have taken place over the last two or three months are part of a calibration process to understand how they could attack the United States and what they could do.

So, for me, these freighters represent more modes of transportation than they do actual attack vehicles. They may represent attack vehicles later on, but for the moment, I think they need them more to be able to transport, just like they need Western Europe as a staging ground, and that is probably why Western Europe for the time being is safe from the terrorists' hands.

KAGAN: Well, there's a lot to track out there. Mansoor Ijaz, thanks for coming in on this holiday.

IJAZ: Thanks for having me.

KAGAN: We appreciate your insight very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.







Aired January 1, 2003 - 07:12   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: War with Iraq becomes evermore threatening. There are signs of an increased threat from al Qaeda starting to surface. There have been warnings about possible terrorist activity in New York Harbor. We've been hearing about that; also about freighters at sea, and while the FBI continues to hunt for five men who they say entered the U.S. with fake passports.
Mansoor Ijaz is an expert on terrorism. He joins us on this New Year's morning.

Good morning -- thanks for joining us on this holiday.

MANSOOR IJAZ, TERRORISM EXPERT: Happy New Year.

KAGAN: Happy New Year to you, too.

IJAZ: Thank you.

KAGAN: A lot of Americans out there are probably going, whew, we made it through New Year's Eve, will probably make it through the New Year's holiday, we can sit back and breathe easy. Do you think that's a good attitude?

IJAZ: Well, we should never let our guard down, because there is no question but that the al Qaeda threat against us is as serious as it has ever been. And that the movement of people -- you know, al Qaeda has not changed its framework of operations completely. They've decentralized the way in which they give their instructions. They've decentralized the way in which they allow those instructions to be carried out.

These five men that supposedly we're looking right now for are probably from the northwest frontier province of Pakistan.

KAGAN: Yes, what do you make of them, and why do you think that that's where they're from?

IJAZ: I think -- well, you can tell from the faces, first of all. But the reason that it's important to understand this is because the way that the bin Laden framework has now been dispersed, they're probably operating in the northwest frontier province.

This morning on the front page of "The Washington Post," we have the first indication of clashes between Pakistani soldiers in that tribal -- lawless tribal region and U.S. soldiers. So, they may be carrying an instruction set across the way.

You know, now the way al Qaeda communicates is not by telephone or e-mail anymore. They do everything in human chains, linkages, and that's why these freighters are so important. They're not instruments, you know, of blowing something up in a harbor as much as they are their transportation systems.

KAGAN: Yes, I want to get to the freighters in just a moment.

IJAZ: Yes.

KAGAN: But first, more on these five men, coming across, we believe, the Canadian to the New York state border...

IJAZ: Yes.

KAGAN: ... with fake British passports. Anything else that you can make more of that story?

IJAZ: Yes, I mean, what this shows is that Europe remains a staging ground for the way in which al Qaeda is operating against the United States. Canada has now become an accessory staging ground, and there is no question but that they are trying to surround the United States with ability to get in and infiltrate. The sleeper cells that are already here, that were probably here before September 11 took place, those sleeper cells need to have new instructions sets, and I think these people are being infiltrated in to bring those instructions in.

KAGAN: And so, does it help by publicizing and putting their pictures out there that these men are wanted?

IJAZ: You bet.

KAGAN: It does?

IJAZ: You bet.

KAGAN: Might it foil whatever plot they might have been up to?

IJAZ: It would certainly make it more difficult for them to carry it out, and I think an increased level of awareness in the American public is very important.

And I would also say that this is now an opportunity for the American -- the Muslim and Arab-American communities to step up to the plate and demonstrate with actions, not their words, that they really are concerned with trying to find a way to help America protect the homeland.

KAGAN: You're in that community.

IJAZ: Yes.

KAGAN: Is there a reluctance to do that? IJAZ: There's a great reluctance. And in fact, you know, it's very sad. I've spent the last three or four days since this story came out talking to people around the country at the imams and the mosques and so forth. And it's almost as if they say this is not our problem, it's somebody else's problem, and let them worry about it.

And the FBI, they think the FBI is violating their civil rights, and I keep trying to explain to them, you are a citizen first, and if you don't have citizenship in this country, civil rights really don't mean anything.

KAGAN: One more minute, I want to get to this freighter story that ran in "The Washington Post" earlier this week, a concern that al Qaeda using freighters perhaps as a weapon, but you think a different purpose for using freighters.

IJAZ: The higher probability is that they need these freighters to be able to move their men and their equipment around from place to place. It's very important for the American people to understand that al Qaeda is very patient and very calibrated in everything that they're doing. The attacks in Bali, in Kenya, against the shipping lanes in Yemen -- all of these various attacks that have taken place over the last two or three months are part of a calibration process to understand how they could attack the United States and what they could do.

So, for me, these freighters represent more modes of transportation than they do actual attack vehicles. They may represent attack vehicles later on, but for the moment, I think they need them more to be able to transport, just like they need Western Europe as a staging ground, and that is probably why Western Europe for the time being is safe from the terrorists' hands.

KAGAN: Well, there's a lot to track out there. Mansoor Ijaz, thanks for coming in on this holiday.

IJAZ: Thanks for having me.

KAGAN: We appreciate your insight very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.