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American Morning

Interview with Victor Cha

Aired January 02, 2003 - 07:16   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Despite North Korea's nuclear ambitions and tough talk, President Bush says the problem calls for diplomacy and not military action.
Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor and also an author of a soon-to-be-published book on North Korea, says that isolating the country is the best policy for the U.S. Professor Cha is joining us this morning from Washington.

Professor, good morning -- happy New Year. Thanks for joining us.

VICTOR CHA, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: Good morning.

KAGAN: Just how dangerous is the situation in North Korea?

CHA: Well, I think it's quite dangerous. You're talking about a country that has violated virtually every nonproliferation agreement that exists in the nonproliferation regime itself. It's a country that doesn't have much except its ballistic missiles and potential nuclear weapons capability. And therefore, the prospect of a North Korea that continues to break out of the nonproliferation regime and try to acquire nuclear weapons is not a particularly appealing outcome.

KAGAN: And yet, you say it's important for the U.S. to isolate North Korea and not talk with the country.

CHA: Well, what I believe is that the United States and its allies, if the North Koreans do not come back into compliance with agreements that they signed onto in 1994, as well as address new concerns about other covert nuclear weapons programs, if they don't do these sorts of things, then there really is no option left except isolation and some form of containment.

KAGAN: But this -- Professor, this is clearly not how South Korea would like to see the U.S. handle the situation.

CHA: No, they would not. They would like the United States to engage more with South Korea (sic), and I think the notion of engaging with the North Koreans is not in and of itself a bad idea. Engagement with North Korea is certainly possible, contingent on the North Koreans making gestures at least to come back in compliance with the nonproliferation agreements.

The South Korean government is very interested in inter-Korean economic engagement. The new president who is about to take office in February has stated very clearly he's interested in engagement. And it doesn't seem like it should be impossible for the United States and South Korea to coordinate policy in such a way that South Korean incentives for economic engagement can be coupled with a promise by the north to return to the nonproliferation regime. And in addition, then the United States would also be willing to negotiate with North Korea. But it all hinges on the north coming back and complying.

KAGAN: Yes, North Koreans need to make the first move, is what you're saying. What if they don't, then what's the next move for the U.S.?

CHA: Well, it frankly becomes very difficult. The military option is really too ugly to contemplate in the sense that the North Koreans could retaliate against U.S. troops in South Korea, as well as the capital city of Seoul, as well as Japan.

Continuing to engage North Korea if they are not in compliance is also very dangerous, because it means giving the North Koreans things to come back into compliance. And frankly, that is not engagement anymore; that is appeasement.

So, the only alternative we're left with is really isolation and containment if the North Koreans continue with their bad behavior.

KAGAN: Of course, complicating a lot of this is a rising anti- American sentiment that is taking place in South Korea. I think that's difficult for a lot of Americans to understand; 37,000 U.S. troops stationed there helping to defend that country. Where do those bad feelings, where do they come from within South Korea?

CHA: Well, they come from a variety of different places. And the one thing we should note is that anti-Americanism as we're seeing it in South Korea is not unusual in the sense that you do have this sort of anti-foreign presence whenever you have large military bases from a foreign country planted in the center of the capital city of the host country.

Having said that, though, there is a new generation in South Korea of people in their 20s and 30s who are politically now very relevant. And they're a generation, frankly, that does not remember the Korean War. They did not grow up with the Korean War as their parents and as their grandparents had. And they're much more interested in quality of life issues, environment, labor issues -- all things that clash very much with the U.S. military footprint in Korea and some of the negative externalities in terms of that footprint.

KAGAN: And, Professor...

CHA: It doesn't -- yes.

KAGAN: I'm so sorry. We just have a very short amount of time here.

CHA: OK.

KAGAN: The next step you see as happening, not what you'd like to see happen, but what do you think is going to be the next step in this ongoing drama between all of these countries?

CHA: Well, I think that if the North Koreans continue to -- well, they have expelled the inspectors already. The IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, is forced to take this to the U.N. So, if all things continue on their current path, it looks like this will go to the U.N. Security Council for some sort of resolution.

KAGAN: Professor Victor Cha from Georgetown -- sir, thank you for joining us this morning. Appreciate it.

CHA: Sure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.







Aired January 2, 2003 - 07:16   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Despite North Korea's nuclear ambitions and tough talk, President Bush says the problem calls for diplomacy and not military action.
Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor and also an author of a soon-to-be-published book on North Korea, says that isolating the country is the best policy for the U.S. Professor Cha is joining us this morning from Washington.

Professor, good morning -- happy New Year. Thanks for joining us.

VICTOR CHA, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: Good morning.

KAGAN: Just how dangerous is the situation in North Korea?

CHA: Well, I think it's quite dangerous. You're talking about a country that has violated virtually every nonproliferation agreement that exists in the nonproliferation regime itself. It's a country that doesn't have much except its ballistic missiles and potential nuclear weapons capability. And therefore, the prospect of a North Korea that continues to break out of the nonproliferation regime and try to acquire nuclear weapons is not a particularly appealing outcome.

KAGAN: And yet, you say it's important for the U.S. to isolate North Korea and not talk with the country.

CHA: Well, what I believe is that the United States and its allies, if the North Koreans do not come back into compliance with agreements that they signed onto in 1994, as well as address new concerns about other covert nuclear weapons programs, if they don't do these sorts of things, then there really is no option left except isolation and some form of containment.

KAGAN: But this -- Professor, this is clearly not how South Korea would like to see the U.S. handle the situation.

CHA: No, they would not. They would like the United States to engage more with South Korea (sic), and I think the notion of engaging with the North Koreans is not in and of itself a bad idea. Engagement with North Korea is certainly possible, contingent on the North Koreans making gestures at least to come back in compliance with the nonproliferation agreements.

The South Korean government is very interested in inter-Korean economic engagement. The new president who is about to take office in February has stated very clearly he's interested in engagement. And it doesn't seem like it should be impossible for the United States and South Korea to coordinate policy in such a way that South Korean incentives for economic engagement can be coupled with a promise by the north to return to the nonproliferation regime. And in addition, then the United States would also be willing to negotiate with North Korea. But it all hinges on the north coming back and complying.

KAGAN: Yes, North Koreans need to make the first move, is what you're saying. What if they don't, then what's the next move for the U.S.?

CHA: Well, it frankly becomes very difficult. The military option is really too ugly to contemplate in the sense that the North Koreans could retaliate against U.S. troops in South Korea, as well as the capital city of Seoul, as well as Japan.

Continuing to engage North Korea if they are not in compliance is also very dangerous, because it means giving the North Koreans things to come back into compliance. And frankly, that is not engagement anymore; that is appeasement.

So, the only alternative we're left with is really isolation and containment if the North Koreans continue with their bad behavior.

KAGAN: Of course, complicating a lot of this is a rising anti- American sentiment that is taking place in South Korea. I think that's difficult for a lot of Americans to understand; 37,000 U.S. troops stationed there helping to defend that country. Where do those bad feelings, where do they come from within South Korea?

CHA: Well, they come from a variety of different places. And the one thing we should note is that anti-Americanism as we're seeing it in South Korea is not unusual in the sense that you do have this sort of anti-foreign presence whenever you have large military bases from a foreign country planted in the center of the capital city of the host country.

Having said that, though, there is a new generation in South Korea of people in their 20s and 30s who are politically now very relevant. And they're a generation, frankly, that does not remember the Korean War. They did not grow up with the Korean War as their parents and as their grandparents had. And they're much more interested in quality of life issues, environment, labor issues -- all things that clash very much with the U.S. military footprint in Korea and some of the negative externalities in terms of that footprint.

KAGAN: And, Professor...

CHA: It doesn't -- yes.

KAGAN: I'm so sorry. We just have a very short amount of time here.

CHA: OK.

KAGAN: The next step you see as happening, not what you'd like to see happen, but what do you think is going to be the next step in this ongoing drama between all of these countries?

CHA: Well, I think that if the North Koreans continue to -- well, they have expelled the inspectors already. The IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, is forced to take this to the U.N. So, if all things continue on their current path, it looks like this will go to the U.N. Security Council for some sort of resolution.

KAGAN: Professor Victor Cha from Georgetown -- sir, thank you for joining us this morning. Appreciate it.

CHA: Sure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.