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Delegation of North Korean Officials Have Gone to New Mexico

Aired January 10, 2003 - 11:40   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Now, there are some talks underway right now, just not with the Bush administration. Our Ed Lavandera is standing by in Santa Fe, New Mexico, where a delegation of North Korean officials have gone there to talk with the governor, Bill Richardson. And Ed Lavandera checks in right now, live, with an update on that.
Hello, Ed.

ED LAVANDERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Leon. Well, as you guys have been covering the developing news from elsewhere, we were allowed inside the governor's residence here in Santa Fe, New Mexico, for a brief photo opportunity with Governor Bill Richardson, and one of the North Korean diplomats. So, nothing very specific coming out of this. We're told that the talks have started about an hour ago, over what was described as a working breakfast. They'll continue to do so, up through lunch.

And we're told now that the talks will continue into the afternoon, perhaps, wrapping up sometime between 3 o'clock and 5 o'clock, mountain time, later on today.

And we can take you inside and let you listen just to the brief comments that Governor Bill Richardson had to say just a few moments ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

BILL RICHARDSON, GOVERNOR, SANTA FE, NEW MEXICO: I'm not an official negotiator, but they're going well, and we're going to be talking this morning and this afternoon.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

LAVANDERA: The North Korean diplomat very serious during the photo opportunity, not answering any questions. In fact, one reporter asked him what he thought of New Mexico and the diplomat remained silent through the question, as the photo opportunity wrapped up.

Now, Governor Richardson reiterated, has said several times since he's been here, that this is not an official negotiation of any kind and that he is here in a listening mode and will continue to do so for the rest of the day. And after all of these meetings have wrapped up here, he will then report what the North Koreans' concerns have been here and pass that along to Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Leon. HARRIS: All right. Thanks, Ed. Negotiations becoming a new "N" word there. President Bush does not want, in any way, shape, or form, to make it appear as though the U.S. is negotiating with North Korea.

Now, joining us right now to talk some more about this is Gary Samore. He's with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and he is also an expert on North Korea.

Mr. Samore, we thank you for taking time with us. And I understand that you were listening to the reading of that document that we heard from the U.N. by the North Korean ambassador. I want to know what you thought of what you heard there and what impressions were made.

GARY SAMORE, INTL. INST. FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES: Well, it really reminded me of speeches that North Korea made ten years ago in 1993, when they threatened to withdraw from the NPT. I think their strategy is the same. They're trying to force the United States to engage in negotiations with them, by threatening to develop nuclear weapons. And I think this isn't a bluff. I think they're very serious that, if they don't get an agreement that addresses some of the issues that they're concerned about, they're fully prepared to proceed and add to their existing nuclear arsenal, which is already probably one or two nuclear weapons.

HARRIS: Well, the Bush administration is adamant about not sitting down and talking face to face with anyone from North Korea at this point. What I want to ask you about is, based upon what you know about the way that they may be thinking -- the North Koreans that is -- are we talking here about something that has brewed from a basic misunderstanding, President Bush coming out and establishing that, in his mind, that North Korea is a member of this "axis of evil? And then following that announcement by President Bush, we also hear this policy of the administration saying that we are willing to go ahead and execute pre-emptive strikes, if necessary, to keep another rogue nation from getting any weapons of mass destruction. Putting those two thoughts together, is that what North Korea is doing, in their mind, and interpreting this as an actual outright threat by the U.S. against North Korea?

SAMORE: Well, I don't think that you can blame the Bush administration's rhetoric for this crisis. The roots really go back to the late 1990s, when North Korea decided to pursue a secret enrichment program, in violation of the agreed framework, because they wanted to retain a nuclear weapons capability, even while living up, at least on paper, to the commitments under the agreed framework.

The Bush administration confronted North Korea with the fact that they were cheating on the agreed framework in October, and tried to use pressure -- economic and political pressure -- in order to force North Korea to live up to its existing commitments. I think that was a miscalculation on Washington's part because, instead of forcing North Korea to back down, the North instead, predictably, upped the ante and basically revived their nuclear weapons program and have now formally withdrawn from the NPT. So to the extent that the United States bears some responsibility, I think it's mainly because of miscalculation and not having a good strategy for dealing with North Korea. Washington has ruled out war. Washington has ruled out negotiations, and pressure tactics aren't working.

HARRIS: I'm glad you explained all that. I wasn't really going at -- trying to assign any blame here. What I was looking at is how is it that they could reach this point in their own minds to perceive the U.S. as a direct threat right now, but I'm glad you explained all that.

Let me ask you about two other countries right now who are sitting on the sidelines here, but they are very nervously sitting there on the sidelines. South Korea and China, what roles do you see them playing and do you see this brinkmanship actually dragging them even further into the fray here?

SAMORE: Well, I think both China and South Korea would like to see the United States engage in some kind of negotiation with the North -- either bilaterally or multilaterally. I think the next step now will be a U.N. Security Council resolution, as in 1993, which will presumably call on North Korea to continue to live up to its international obligations and may call on member states to try to facilitate a solution.

On that basis, the Bush administration, if it wants to, could respond by opening talks with North Korea, in response to U.N. Security Council requests, just as the United States did back in 1993. That would not necessarily produce an agreement. But it seems to me there's some tactical value from Washington's standpoint in freezing the North Korean program for the time being while talks take place, so that Washington can focus its energies on Iraq and also to demonstrate that the United States is trying very hard to reach a diplomatic solution. And if it fails, it would put the United States in a stronger position to mobilize international pressure and sanctions against North Korea for not being willing to agree to a reasonable settlement of this issue.

HARRIS: All right. Well, let me ask you this, the way things stand right now, who has the upper hand and what should the U.S. do about it?

SAMORE: Well, I think North Korea is taking advantage of two things: first, the U.S. focus -- proper focus on Iraq; and the U.N. Security Council focus on Iraq. The North Koreans think they have a little bit of room for maneuver because the U.S., clearly, does not want to deal with a crisis at the same time that it's trying to manage things on Iraq. And second, North Korea is exploiting the nervousness of U.S. allies in the region -- South Korea and Japan, as well as China and Russia -- with the concern that the situation may get nastier and even end up in a confrontation.

For the Bush administration, I don't myself see any way to freeze or convince North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program diplomatically, unless it involves some kind of negotiation. I just don't think political and economic pressure, by itself, will succeed, although it's important to have the stick there, along with the carrot. So I think the Bush administration needs to think about whether there's some tactical advantage in finding a way to begin discussions with North Korea. They may not produce any results, but I think trying to do it and demonstrating that the U.S. is trying to do it, would serve Washington's near-term interests and might actually result in a solution that would serve Washington's long-term interest.

HARRIS: Hard to see how it could make matters worse at this particular point. Gary Samore, thank you very much. Appreciate the insight and your attempt to explain a very complicated world to all of us this morning. Take care.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





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Aired January 10, 2003 - 11:40   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Now, there are some talks underway right now, just not with the Bush administration. Our Ed Lavandera is standing by in Santa Fe, New Mexico, where a delegation of North Korean officials have gone there to talk with the governor, Bill Richardson. And Ed Lavandera checks in right now, live, with an update on that.
Hello, Ed.

ED LAVANDERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Leon. Well, as you guys have been covering the developing news from elsewhere, we were allowed inside the governor's residence here in Santa Fe, New Mexico, for a brief photo opportunity with Governor Bill Richardson, and one of the North Korean diplomats. So, nothing very specific coming out of this. We're told that the talks have started about an hour ago, over what was described as a working breakfast. They'll continue to do so, up through lunch.

And we're told now that the talks will continue into the afternoon, perhaps, wrapping up sometime between 3 o'clock and 5 o'clock, mountain time, later on today.

And we can take you inside and let you listen just to the brief comments that Governor Bill Richardson had to say just a few moments ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO TAPE)

BILL RICHARDSON, GOVERNOR, SANTA FE, NEW MEXICO: I'm not an official negotiator, but they're going well, and we're going to be talking this morning and this afternoon.

(END VIDEO TAPE)

LAVANDERA: The North Korean diplomat very serious during the photo opportunity, not answering any questions. In fact, one reporter asked him what he thought of New Mexico and the diplomat remained silent through the question, as the photo opportunity wrapped up.

Now, Governor Richardson reiterated, has said several times since he's been here, that this is not an official negotiation of any kind and that he is here in a listening mode and will continue to do so for the rest of the day. And after all of these meetings have wrapped up here, he will then report what the North Koreans' concerns have been here and pass that along to Secretary of State Colin Powell.

Leon. HARRIS: All right. Thanks, Ed. Negotiations becoming a new "N" word there. President Bush does not want, in any way, shape, or form, to make it appear as though the U.S. is negotiating with North Korea.

Now, joining us right now to talk some more about this is Gary Samore. He's with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and he is also an expert on North Korea.

Mr. Samore, we thank you for taking time with us. And I understand that you were listening to the reading of that document that we heard from the U.N. by the North Korean ambassador. I want to know what you thought of what you heard there and what impressions were made.

GARY SAMORE, INTL. INST. FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES: Well, it really reminded me of speeches that North Korea made ten years ago in 1993, when they threatened to withdraw from the NPT. I think their strategy is the same. They're trying to force the United States to engage in negotiations with them, by threatening to develop nuclear weapons. And I think this isn't a bluff. I think they're very serious that, if they don't get an agreement that addresses some of the issues that they're concerned about, they're fully prepared to proceed and add to their existing nuclear arsenal, which is already probably one or two nuclear weapons.

HARRIS: Well, the Bush administration is adamant about not sitting down and talking face to face with anyone from North Korea at this point. What I want to ask you about is, based upon what you know about the way that they may be thinking -- the North Koreans that is -- are we talking here about something that has brewed from a basic misunderstanding, President Bush coming out and establishing that, in his mind, that North Korea is a member of this "axis of evil? And then following that announcement by President Bush, we also hear this policy of the administration saying that we are willing to go ahead and execute pre-emptive strikes, if necessary, to keep another rogue nation from getting any weapons of mass destruction. Putting those two thoughts together, is that what North Korea is doing, in their mind, and interpreting this as an actual outright threat by the U.S. against North Korea?

SAMORE: Well, I don't think that you can blame the Bush administration's rhetoric for this crisis. The roots really go back to the late 1990s, when North Korea decided to pursue a secret enrichment program, in violation of the agreed framework, because they wanted to retain a nuclear weapons capability, even while living up, at least on paper, to the commitments under the agreed framework.

The Bush administration confronted North Korea with the fact that they were cheating on the agreed framework in October, and tried to use pressure -- economic and political pressure -- in order to force North Korea to live up to its existing commitments. I think that was a miscalculation on Washington's part because, instead of forcing North Korea to back down, the North instead, predictably, upped the ante and basically revived their nuclear weapons program and have now formally withdrawn from the NPT. So to the extent that the United States bears some responsibility, I think it's mainly because of miscalculation and not having a good strategy for dealing with North Korea. Washington has ruled out war. Washington has ruled out negotiations, and pressure tactics aren't working.

HARRIS: I'm glad you explained all that. I wasn't really going at -- trying to assign any blame here. What I was looking at is how is it that they could reach this point in their own minds to perceive the U.S. as a direct threat right now, but I'm glad you explained all that.

Let me ask you about two other countries right now who are sitting on the sidelines here, but they are very nervously sitting there on the sidelines. South Korea and China, what roles do you see them playing and do you see this brinkmanship actually dragging them even further into the fray here?

SAMORE: Well, I think both China and South Korea would like to see the United States engage in some kind of negotiation with the North -- either bilaterally or multilaterally. I think the next step now will be a U.N. Security Council resolution, as in 1993, which will presumably call on North Korea to continue to live up to its international obligations and may call on member states to try to facilitate a solution.

On that basis, the Bush administration, if it wants to, could respond by opening talks with North Korea, in response to U.N. Security Council requests, just as the United States did back in 1993. That would not necessarily produce an agreement. But it seems to me there's some tactical value from Washington's standpoint in freezing the North Korean program for the time being while talks take place, so that Washington can focus its energies on Iraq and also to demonstrate that the United States is trying very hard to reach a diplomatic solution. And if it fails, it would put the United States in a stronger position to mobilize international pressure and sanctions against North Korea for not being willing to agree to a reasonable settlement of this issue.

HARRIS: All right. Well, let me ask you this, the way things stand right now, who has the upper hand and what should the U.S. do about it?

SAMORE: Well, I think North Korea is taking advantage of two things: first, the U.S. focus -- proper focus on Iraq; and the U.N. Security Council focus on Iraq. The North Koreans think they have a little bit of room for maneuver because the U.S., clearly, does not want to deal with a crisis at the same time that it's trying to manage things on Iraq. And second, North Korea is exploiting the nervousness of U.S. allies in the region -- South Korea and Japan, as well as China and Russia -- with the concern that the situation may get nastier and even end up in a confrontation.

For the Bush administration, I don't myself see any way to freeze or convince North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program diplomatically, unless it involves some kind of negotiation. I just don't think political and economic pressure, by itself, will succeed, although it's important to have the stick there, along with the carrot. So I think the Bush administration needs to think about whether there's some tactical advantage in finding a way to begin discussions with North Korea. They may not produce any results, but I think trying to do it and demonstrating that the U.S. is trying to do it, would serve Washington's near-term interests and might actually result in a solution that would serve Washington's long-term interest.

HARRIS: Hard to see how it could make matters worse at this particular point. Gary Samore, thank you very much. Appreciate the insight and your attempt to explain a very complicated world to all of us this morning. Take care.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





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