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CNN Live At Daybreak
South Korean Government Says It's Prepared For Worse-Case Scenario
Aired January 16, 2003 - 05:35 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: The South Korean government says it is prepared for the worse case scenario, and that would be a possible war on the Korean Peninsula if the nuclear stand-off between the United States and North Korea is not resolved.
National security correspondent David Ensor has this assessment.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DAVID ENSOR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was just a year ago that the president placed North Korea on his axis of evil.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger.
ENSOR: It is a danger President Clinton once considered going to war to avert, according to former aides. Plans were drawn up to bomb the Yongbyon plutonium reprocessing facility. The plans were only shelved when the North Koreans agreed to freeze their nuclear program.
ASHTON CARTER, FORMER DEFENSE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: A nuclear North Korea is a disaster. We were willing to risk war to prevent that in 1994. I believe we should be willing to risk war now. I hope it doesn't come to that and that diplomacy works.
ENSOR: North Korea has sold to others almost every weapons system it has ever developed. The fear is if it built enough nuclear weapons, North Korea might also sell them. The CIA estimates Pyongyang could already have one or two nuclear devices. Some say the numbers could be higher.
BRUCE BENNETT, RAND: There are other Russian intelligence reports that a considerable amount of plutonium was smuggled to North Korea in the 1992 time frame. If so, the numbers that they could have could be five or 10 or potentially more.
ENSOR: Most at risk if it ever came to war, the 37,000 U.S. troops in South Korea and the South Korean people. Seoul is about an hour's drive from the DMZ. North Korea has 1.2 million troops under arms. It is estimated to have 2,000 to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons. BENNETT: Now, a ton of chemical weapons can probably put in a city, cover an area of a kilometer or more in the right conditions. So having thousands of tons of chemical weapons is an immense quantity. ENSOR: Japan and U.S. forces there must worry, too, since the North Koreans have fired a test missile right over the top of Japan and into the Pacific Ocean. Many analysts believe North Korea's Kim Jong Il is bluffing, with nuclear threats to gain U.S. attention and concessions. But if it were to come to all out war, some say even the U.S. mainland might not be immune. BENNETT: They could bring agents, potentially, into the country with some form of weaponry, probably biological weapons. That's the kind of thing that special forces would tend to use.
ENSOR (on camera): Of course, war with the United States would be suicide for North Korea's leaders. That has always been the main deterrent. But experts say the danger to the U.S. in the event of some sort of miscalculation is growing.
David Ensor, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COSTELLO: And it was about this time last year that President Bush labeled North Korea, Iran and Iraq an axis of evil. But how do those countries feel about each other?
CNN's Andrea Koppel takes us inside the axis during our first hour of DAYBREAK. That will happen tomorrow morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Scenario>
Aired January 16, 2003 - 05:35 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: The South Korean government says it is prepared for the worse case scenario, and that would be a possible war on the Korean Peninsula if the nuclear stand-off between the United States and North Korea is not resolved.
National security correspondent David Ensor has this assessment.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DAVID ENSOR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was just a year ago that the president placed North Korea on his axis of evil.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger.
ENSOR: It is a danger President Clinton once considered going to war to avert, according to former aides. Plans were drawn up to bomb the Yongbyon plutonium reprocessing facility. The plans were only shelved when the North Koreans agreed to freeze their nuclear program.
ASHTON CARTER, FORMER DEFENSE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: A nuclear North Korea is a disaster. We were willing to risk war to prevent that in 1994. I believe we should be willing to risk war now. I hope it doesn't come to that and that diplomacy works.
ENSOR: North Korea has sold to others almost every weapons system it has ever developed. The fear is if it built enough nuclear weapons, North Korea might also sell them. The CIA estimates Pyongyang could already have one or two nuclear devices. Some say the numbers could be higher.
BRUCE BENNETT, RAND: There are other Russian intelligence reports that a considerable amount of plutonium was smuggled to North Korea in the 1992 time frame. If so, the numbers that they could have could be five or 10 or potentially more.
ENSOR: Most at risk if it ever came to war, the 37,000 U.S. troops in South Korea and the South Korean people. Seoul is about an hour's drive from the DMZ. North Korea has 1.2 million troops under arms. It is estimated to have 2,000 to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons. BENNETT: Now, a ton of chemical weapons can probably put in a city, cover an area of a kilometer or more in the right conditions. So having thousands of tons of chemical weapons is an immense quantity. ENSOR: Japan and U.S. forces there must worry, too, since the North Koreans have fired a test missile right over the top of Japan and into the Pacific Ocean. Many analysts believe North Korea's Kim Jong Il is bluffing, with nuclear threats to gain U.S. attention and concessions. But if it were to come to all out war, some say even the U.S. mainland might not be immune. BENNETT: They could bring agents, potentially, into the country with some form of weaponry, probably biological weapons. That's the kind of thing that special forces would tend to use.
ENSOR (on camera): Of course, war with the United States would be suicide for North Korea's leaders. That has always been the main deterrent. But experts say the danger to the U.S. in the event of some sort of miscalculation is growing.
David Ensor, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COSTELLO: And it was about this time last year that President Bush labeled North Korea, Iran and Iraq an axis of evil. But how do those countries feel about each other?
CNN's Andrea Koppel takes us inside the axis during our first hour of DAYBREAK. That will happen tomorrow morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Scenario>
