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American Morning
Showdown: Iraq: Deal Time?
Aired January 21, 2003 - 09:06 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: But will the international community get on board? Jamie Rubin is former assistant secretary of state for public affairs. He joins us live from London.
Good morning, Jamie.
I wanted you to react to something that "The New York Times" is reporting today, that the secretary of state seemed to -- quote -- "be caught off guard by the resistance of other Security Council members to a resolution for military action in the coming weeks."
Will he ever get consensus?
JAMES RUBIN, FMR. ASST. SECY. OF STATE: Well, I think this situation now looks a lot like it did last August, September, when the United States was making very clear that it intended to take military action, if necessary, to disarm Saddam Hussein. The world was very skeptical, but President Bush and Colin Powell stayed at it, with the help of Tony Blair, and gradually, a resolution was passed, a unanimous resolution, 15-0, giving Iraq one more chance.
I think today, a few months later, we're in a very analogous situation. Again, the United States saying through deployment of troops and through words of Secretary Powell, that time is running out, and that we can't be afraid to take action, and countries like France, and Russia and China and others are calling for more time and calling for more diplomacy.
And so this very much like the previous case, the question this time is whether President Bush will wait, will he go through the painful, excruciating diplomatic process to try to get enough countries on board to get enough on board, or at least be able to say most of the world is with them.
ZAHN: You mentioned other countries that would like for the U.S. to wait. Let's quickly replay a little of what Germany's foreign minister had to say as he weighed in on this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOSCHIKA FISCHER, GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER: We are greatly concerned that military strike against the regime in Baghdad involve considerable and unpredictable risks for the global fight against terrorism.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: Do you see any flexibility in the German position, Jamie?
RUBIN: I really don't. I think Germany is the last country we're likely to get support from. I think the key is France. Just like in the last case, if France can be moved, if France can be made to understand that we can't let the hourglass continue to run out over and over and over again without acting, if France can understand that this should be in a matter of weeks rather than a matter of months, I think we'll get the majority of the Security Council and we'll get the resolution that many people think would help.
In that case, the Germans, my best guess, they will abstain, they will support in principal any resolution of the Security Council, but this current government in Germany is simply incapable of voting yes for war in Iraq.
ZAHN: Finally this morning, this all happens against this backdrop of the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency saying he's going to report to the Security Council, he needs months more to complete inspections. Now I guess that shouldn't come as a surprise to the Bush administration. However, what impact will shah have on their planning?
RUBIN: Well, the key is many people operate under a misunderstanding of what this resolution required, and the simple words for people to understand are the difference between active cooperation and passive cooperation. Is Iraq just sitting back and allowing the U.N. to inspect it, but not answering all of the questions, not giving them all of the documents, not changing 10 years' worth of playing hide and seek with the U.N.? The U.N. inspectors, the IAEA inspectors are basically telling Iraqis, and I expect they'll tell the world on Monday, that when it comes to passive cooperation, are the Iraqis allowing to do what we need to do? Yes, they are. But when it comes to active cooperation, are they speeding up the process, are they helping us to disarm? No, they're not.
And so the real battle that is going to come in the coming weeks is the question of time, how long do you have to wait for the inspectors to either uncover some dramatic evidence of Saddam's weapons of mass destruction, or how long do you have to wait before the world concludes that that's never going to happen and military force is the only option? And I think the battle in the coming weeks is going to about time. The U.S. wants it to go fast, and countries like France, and Russia and perhaps some of the inspectors would prefer to go slower.
ZAHN: As always, we appreciate your input. Jamie Rubin, thanks for joining us from London today.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired January 21, 2003 - 09:06 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: But will the international community get on board? Jamie Rubin is former assistant secretary of state for public affairs. He joins us live from London.
Good morning, Jamie.
I wanted you to react to something that "The New York Times" is reporting today, that the secretary of state seemed to -- quote -- "be caught off guard by the resistance of other Security Council members to a resolution for military action in the coming weeks."
Will he ever get consensus?
JAMES RUBIN, FMR. ASST. SECY. OF STATE: Well, I think this situation now looks a lot like it did last August, September, when the United States was making very clear that it intended to take military action, if necessary, to disarm Saddam Hussein. The world was very skeptical, but President Bush and Colin Powell stayed at it, with the help of Tony Blair, and gradually, a resolution was passed, a unanimous resolution, 15-0, giving Iraq one more chance.
I think today, a few months later, we're in a very analogous situation. Again, the United States saying through deployment of troops and through words of Secretary Powell, that time is running out, and that we can't be afraid to take action, and countries like France, and Russia and China and others are calling for more time and calling for more diplomacy.
And so this very much like the previous case, the question this time is whether President Bush will wait, will he go through the painful, excruciating diplomatic process to try to get enough countries on board to get enough on board, or at least be able to say most of the world is with them.
ZAHN: You mentioned other countries that would like for the U.S. to wait. Let's quickly replay a little of what Germany's foreign minister had to say as he weighed in on this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOSCHIKA FISCHER, GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER: We are greatly concerned that military strike against the regime in Baghdad involve considerable and unpredictable risks for the global fight against terrorism.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN: Do you see any flexibility in the German position, Jamie?
RUBIN: I really don't. I think Germany is the last country we're likely to get support from. I think the key is France. Just like in the last case, if France can be moved, if France can be made to understand that we can't let the hourglass continue to run out over and over and over again without acting, if France can understand that this should be in a matter of weeks rather than a matter of months, I think we'll get the majority of the Security Council and we'll get the resolution that many people think would help.
In that case, the Germans, my best guess, they will abstain, they will support in principal any resolution of the Security Council, but this current government in Germany is simply incapable of voting yes for war in Iraq.
ZAHN: Finally this morning, this all happens against this backdrop of the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency saying he's going to report to the Security Council, he needs months more to complete inspections. Now I guess that shouldn't come as a surprise to the Bush administration. However, what impact will shah have on their planning?
RUBIN: Well, the key is many people operate under a misunderstanding of what this resolution required, and the simple words for people to understand are the difference between active cooperation and passive cooperation. Is Iraq just sitting back and allowing the U.N. to inspect it, but not answering all of the questions, not giving them all of the documents, not changing 10 years' worth of playing hide and seek with the U.N.? The U.N. inspectors, the IAEA inspectors are basically telling Iraqis, and I expect they'll tell the world on Monday, that when it comes to passive cooperation, are the Iraqis allowing to do what we need to do? Yes, they are. But when it comes to active cooperation, are they speeding up the process, are they helping us to disarm? No, they're not.
And so the real battle that is going to come in the coming weeks is the question of time, how long do you have to wait for the inspectors to either uncover some dramatic evidence of Saddam's weapons of mass destruction, or how long do you have to wait before the world concludes that that's never going to happen and military force is the only option? And I think the battle in the coming weeks is going to about time. The U.S. wants it to go fast, and countries like France, and Russia and perhaps some of the inspectors would prefer to go slower.
ZAHN: As always, we appreciate your input. Jamie Rubin, thanks for joining us from London today.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
