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American Morning

Interview With Andy Serwer

Aired January 24, 2003 - 09:49   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: The secret to the stock market may lie in Sunday's Super Bowl game. Andy Serwer is going to take that one apart for us.
ANDY SERWER, EDITOR AT LARGE, "FORTUNE": Yes, if you believe that.

CAFFERTY: Pretty good indicator over the years.

SERWER: Yes, it actually has worked 82 percent of the time. Let's get a first check of the markets, first. The Dow is down at last gander, down 82.

CAFFERTY: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) that rally yesterday, right?

SERWER: I tell you, we go down five days and up one.

CAFFERTY: Yes.

SERWER: And pretty soon, we are all going to be completely broke.

CAFFERTY: We will owe them money.

SERWER: Bucking the trend, Amazon.com is up a little bit. They are actually making money, and people are saying, there were doubting -- that is a real business, I think. It's not going to go away.

Let's talk about the Super Bowl indicator. A little tricky this year. This is how it works. If an old AFC -- old AFL team wins the Super Bowl, the market goes down. Last year, the Pats win, the market is down 17 percent. The Jets win with Namath in '69, the market go down. The problem is, Tampa Bay, which is the NFC team, is not an old NFL team, it is an expansion team that came into the league after the leagues came together.

CAFFERTY: Right.

SERWER: Is that Warren Sapp?

CAFFERTY: Yes.

SERWER: That is a Tampa Bay Buc. Listen, here is how it works. So, if the NFC team wins, the market is supposed to go up.

CAFFERTY: It has nothing to do with what we're talking about, but that is Rich Gannon. SERWER: Oh, that is Rich Gannon?

PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Who is Rich Gannon?

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: Oh, that Rich Gannon. Oh, OK.

SERWER: You don't want the Raiders to win if you care about your 401k. There you go. Oakland, California getting mad at me. We don't want the Raiders to win if you care about your stock portfolio. I am going to say -- everyone says the Raiders are going to win. I say the Bucs are going to win because it's just like the market. Everyone says X, and then Y happens. Plus I want Tampa Bay to win because I want the market to go up.

CAFFERTY: Plus good defense, I think, tends to win the Super Bowl, and they are touted as, I guess, having the best defense. What is the line? The line is three and half points?

SERWER: Yes, that is not much. I thought it would be more than that. We are going to talk about that a little bit more, though, on your new show?

CAFFERTY: Funny you should mention that. We have a new program starting here called "In the Money," and we are going to tape it this afternoon -- today, and it airs on Saturdays and Sundays at 3:00. Only this weekend, it won't air on Sunday because we are only taping one show, unless they replay it on Sunday, but if they are going to do that, they haven't told me about it yet.

ZAHN: Well, your fans are going to be begging for the replay, Jack. It's a certainty it is going to air again at 3:00 p.m. on Sunday.

SERWER: It won't be competing with the Super Bowl.

CAFFERTY: If you don't watch on Saturday at 3:00, somebody will be at your house wanting a full explanation on Monday.

SERWER: A Nielson man.

CAFFERTY: Be there, because otherwise, you save yourself some aggravation next week.

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: I know you've had a lot of jobs in this business. Is this one of the more exciting debuts you've ever had?

CAFFERTY: I don't know if that is an indication -- I can't hold one, maybe.

ZAHN: Well, we all have had a lot of jobs.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired January 24, 2003 - 09:49   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: The secret to the stock market may lie in Sunday's Super Bowl game. Andy Serwer is going to take that one apart for us.
ANDY SERWER, EDITOR AT LARGE, "FORTUNE": Yes, if you believe that.

CAFFERTY: Pretty good indicator over the years.

SERWER: Yes, it actually has worked 82 percent of the time. Let's get a first check of the markets, first. The Dow is down at last gander, down 82.

CAFFERTY: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) that rally yesterday, right?

SERWER: I tell you, we go down five days and up one.

CAFFERTY: Yes.

SERWER: And pretty soon, we are all going to be completely broke.

CAFFERTY: We will owe them money.

SERWER: Bucking the trend, Amazon.com is up a little bit. They are actually making money, and people are saying, there were doubting -- that is a real business, I think. It's not going to go away.

Let's talk about the Super Bowl indicator. A little tricky this year. This is how it works. If an old AFC -- old AFL team wins the Super Bowl, the market goes down. Last year, the Pats win, the market is down 17 percent. The Jets win with Namath in '69, the market go down. The problem is, Tampa Bay, which is the NFC team, is not an old NFL team, it is an expansion team that came into the league after the leagues came together.

CAFFERTY: Right.

SERWER: Is that Warren Sapp?

CAFFERTY: Yes.

SERWER: That is a Tampa Bay Buc. Listen, here is how it works. So, if the NFC team wins, the market is supposed to go up.

CAFFERTY: It has nothing to do with what we're talking about, but that is Rich Gannon. SERWER: Oh, that is Rich Gannon?

PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Who is Rich Gannon?

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: Oh, that Rich Gannon. Oh, OK.

SERWER: You don't want the Raiders to win if you care about your 401k. There you go. Oakland, California getting mad at me. We don't want the Raiders to win if you care about your stock portfolio. I am going to say -- everyone says the Raiders are going to win. I say the Bucs are going to win because it's just like the market. Everyone says X, and then Y happens. Plus I want Tampa Bay to win because I want the market to go up.

CAFFERTY: Plus good defense, I think, tends to win the Super Bowl, and they are touted as, I guess, having the best defense. What is the line? The line is three and half points?

SERWER: Yes, that is not much. I thought it would be more than that. We are going to talk about that a little bit more, though, on your new show?

CAFFERTY: Funny you should mention that. We have a new program starting here called "In the Money," and we are going to tape it this afternoon -- today, and it airs on Saturdays and Sundays at 3:00. Only this weekend, it won't air on Sunday because we are only taping one show, unless they replay it on Sunday, but if they are going to do that, they haven't told me about it yet.

ZAHN: Well, your fans are going to be begging for the replay, Jack. It's a certainty it is going to air again at 3:00 p.m. on Sunday.

SERWER: It won't be competing with the Super Bowl.

CAFFERTY: If you don't watch on Saturday at 3:00, somebody will be at your house wanting a full explanation on Monday.

SERWER: A Nielson man.

CAFFERTY: Be there, because otherwise, you save yourself some aggravation next week.

(CROSSTALK)

ZAHN: I know you've had a lot of jobs in this business. Is this one of the more exciting debuts you've ever had?

CAFFERTY: I don't know if that is an indication -- I can't hold one, maybe.

ZAHN: Well, we all have had a lot of jobs.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com